StringJunky Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Is the spate of clotting cases in the EU a case of false correlation due to coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansont Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Quote there had been 15 events of deep vein thrombosis and 22 events of pulmonary embolism reported among those vaccinated. “This is much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of this size and is similar across other licensed COVID-19 vaccines,” AstraZeneca said. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-doctors-react-as-eu-countries-suspend-shot.html This is out of 17 million people DVT is normally about 1 in 1000 per year https://www.stoptheclot.org/the_basics/how_common_dvt/ Seems like this is likely the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, swansont said: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-doctors-react-as-eu-countries-suspend-shot.html This is out of 17 million people DVT is normally about 1 in 1000 per year https://www.stoptheclot.org/the_basics/how_common_dvt/ Seems like this is likely the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy Yeah, that was what I've read, but surely the countries experts that are advising suspending it are aware of this as well... or is it more likely higher-ups in government over-riding their experts advice? More of a political thing based on fear without substantive statistical evidence, say. This feels a bit like the vaccine-causes-autism fiasco. Edited March 16, 2021 by StringJunky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danijel Gorupec Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Does the coincidence happen with pfizer too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Cuthber Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said: Does the coincidence happen with pfizer too? Apparently 33 minutes ago, swansont said: This is much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of this size and is similar across other licensed COVID-19 vaccines,” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said: Does the coincidence happen with pfizer too? The coincidence of people taking the vaccine having a LOWER rate of blood clots than in the general population, you mean? x-posted with John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 hours ago, StringJunky said: Is the spate of clotting cases in the EU a case of false correlation due to coincidence? I think it's more political than factual, although I'm struggling to find a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, dimreepr said: I think it's more political than factual, although I'm struggling to find a reason. I’ve heard it suggested that it’s payback for Brexit, but that struck me as conspiratorial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 minute ago, iNow said: I’ve heard it suggested that it’s payback for Brexit, but that struck me as conspiratorial When do politicians need a reason, when any old excuse will do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geordief Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Reaching the sufficient number of vaccinated may be a difficult ask so it is important to not alienate those who are hesitant to take the vaccine for any real or imagined reason at all. These people have to be accommodated as much as possible (I appreciate some lives may be lost as a result but that is hopefully short term) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danijel Gorupec Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 I don't think it is a payback for Brexit :)... I don't think Europeans even know from where AstraZeneca is... I guess it might more likely be because Merkel refused AstraZeneca vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Danijel Gorupec said: I don't think it is a payback for Brexit :)... I don't think Europeans even know from where AstraZeneca is... I guess it might more likely be because Merkel refused AstraZeneca vaccine. Why has she refused it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, geordief said: Reaching the sufficient number of vaccinated may be a difficult ask so it is important to not alienate those who are hesitant to take the vaccine for any real or imagined reason at all. These people have to be accommodated as much as possible (I appreciate some lives may be lost as a result but that is hopefully short term) It's only a difficult ask because some people think they're freedom to kill other's, is an inalienable right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danijel Gorupec Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, StringJunky said: Why has she refused it? Who knows (But If you love conspiracy theories, here is a pet of mine -> AstraZeneca promised vaccine shots to Germany, and Merkel promised this to German people... then AstraZeneca sold vaccines elsewhere... Merkel waited to slap them back and the opportunity came quickly .) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansont Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 41 minutes ago, dimreepr said: I think it's more political than factual, although I'm struggling to find a reason. Politics is perception. If people think the vaccine caused it, an emotional response, a whole lot of them won’t be swayed by statistics and statements. So halting the rollout looks like protecting people. And as gordief notes, you don’t want people to have an excuse to not get vaccinated. A delay to “assess” things might be the assurance some people need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, swansont said: Politics is perception. If people think the vaccine caused it, an emotional response, a whole lot of them won’t be swayed by statistics and statements. So halting the rollout looks like protecting people. And as gordief notes, you don’t want people to have an excuse to not get vaccinated. A delay to “assess” things might be the assurance some people need. Indeed, but some people think they're freedom to kill other's, is an inalienable right; Antivaxers may as well have a gun in their hand, while they say "sorry, it just went off, but don't take my gun"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansont Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, dimreepr said: Indeed, but some people think they're freedom to kill other's, is an inalienable right; Antivaxers may as well have a gun in their hand, while they say "sorry, it just went off, but don't take my gun"... But you’re not reaching them in any event. This would be about reassuring people who are undecided on whether to get vaccinated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, swansont said: But you’re not reaching them in any event. This would be about reassuring people who are undecided on whether to get vaccinated Good point, but the counter arguement is, it dissuades other's; at some point the balance favours the brave politician... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Area54 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 This BBC article is relevant: AstraZeneca vaccine: EU regulator 'firmly convinced' benefits outweigh risks The article notes that "The EU's medicines regulator has said it remains "firmly convinced" that the benefits of the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab outweigh the risks. It reiterated that there was "no indication" the vaccine causes blood clots, after several leading EU states paused their rollouts. European Medicines Agency (EMA) head Emer Cooke said the body stood by its decision to approve the vaccine." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prof Reza Sanaye Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 One good point to be discussed here is how long have other significantly successful vaccines taken to be "developed" before being rolled out onto the public ?? ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Area54 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, Prof Reza Sanaye said: One good point to be discussed here is how long have other significantly successful vaccines taken to be "developed" before being rolled out onto the public ?? ?? No. The relevant point is, in terms of subjects tested and protcols followed, do the Covid vaccines compare favourably with other successful vaccines. I am unaware of any other vaccine development that benefited from the intensity of manpower, money and effort. Do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prof Reza Sanaye Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, Area54 said: No. The relevant point is, in terms of subjects tested and protcols followed, do the Covid vaccines compare favourably with other successful vaccines. I am unaware of any other vaccine development that benefited from the intensity of manpower, money and effort. Do you? You are belittling all the huge amounts of the intensity of manpower, money and effort that had been put into producing other VERY important vaccines. I still believe it is worth it comparing other vaccine developments' time-taking and this one's. It tells us things , , ... , , , . , ., . , .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zapatos Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Prof Reza Sanaye said: I still believe it is worth it comparing other vaccine developments' time-taking and this one's. It tells us things , , ... , , , . , ., . , .. Tells us what things???>>??__>%%^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Area54 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, Prof Reza Sanaye said: You are belittling all the huge amounts of the intensity of manpower, money and effort that had been put into producing other VERY important vaccines. No I am not. I suspect, based upon what I have read about Covid vaccine development and vaccine development in general, that the total number of man hours, the total number of test subjects and the total amount of money spent is similar for both. What differs is the the shorter time frame into which that effort was compressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Area54 said: No I am not. I suspect, based upon what I have read about Covid vaccine development and vaccine development in general, that the total number of man hours, the total number of test subjects and the total amount of money spent is similar for both. What differs is the the shorter time frame into which that effort was compressed. "The most effort in the shortest time IN HISTORY!!!" ...as Mr Trump might say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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