Astrazeneca covid vaccine clotting anomaly

[dimreepr]

33 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

This belief is the reason, I speculate, why it was so easy to 'demonize' AstraZeneca vaccine with EU population (especially after frau Merkel refused to get the AstraZeneca vaccine shot).

You don't seem to understand the difference between a reason and an excuse...

[Danijel Gorupec]

14 minutes ago, studiot said:

My own reading of the situation is somewhat different.

I think that the EU leadership is manufacturing a dispute where none should exist to try to divert attention from their own abysmal failings.

The UK placed firm orders at least three months before the end of 2020 and announced 'intent to buy orders three months before that'.

The EU still had not placed firm orders at the beginning of January 2021, and indeed could not do so because it has still not licenced the vaccine.

 

 

I fully agree. And I think EU failed big time... (and it will fail every time a quick decision must be maid).

Still, I would be surprised if companies were honest when they made initial delivery estimations - this dishonesty now opens a space for EU politicians to clear themselves of their own guilt. Sadly.

 

[zapatos]

1 hour ago, studiot said:

That sounds a lot, citation required please.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/us-tops-100-million-covid-vaccine-doses-administered-13percent-of-adults-now-fully-vaccinated.html

 

9 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

Still, I would be surprised if companies were honest when they made initial delivery estimations

Why would you be surprised? Do these companies have a history of lying?

[dimreepr]

12 minutes ago, zapatos said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/us-tops-100-million-covid-vaccine-doses-administered-13percent-of-adults-now-fully-vaccinated.html

 

Why would you be surprised? Do these companies have a history of lying?

Some time's in life we have to consider, the battery life...

 

[studiot]

18 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

Still, I would be surprised if companies were honest when they made initial delivery estimations - this dishonesty now opens a space for EU politicians to clear themselves of their own guilt. Sadly.

That surely is up to the citizens and consituent governments of the EU, who notably did not pull together during 2020, setting up physical borders between each other.

In the UK the inquest into who messed up what and when has already started we will see if that is a whitewash or not but serious accusations by influential people have been made.

As to the vaccine companies; note the difference between intent to order

UK "we will pay for them whether they work or not"

EU "we will only order and pay when they are proven to work." Up to Jan1st 2021 they had not placed any firm orders.

How can any firm in any business guarantee to supply "whatever the client, in any quantity they want, with as little notice as the client sees fit to give" ?
The best they can do is to say "we will do our best at the time madam", which is what they did actually say.

25 minutes ago, zapatos said:

1 hour ago, studiot said:

That sounds a lot, citation required please.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/us-tops-100-million-covid-vaccine-doses-administered-13percent-of-adults-now-fully-vaccinated.html

Thank you, they are getting on pretty fast then.

As swansont said

Where did they come from ?

[swansont]

1 hour ago, studiot said:

That sounds a lot, citation required please.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/us-tops-100-million-covid-vaccine-doses-administered-13percent-of-adults-now-fully-vaccinated.html

 

"The U.S. on Friday topped 100 million Covid-19 vaccine doses administered, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

We've been going at > 2 million jabs a day recently

 

110 million doses as of today's reporting

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state

 

1 hour ago, studiot said:

How is this number consistent with the fact we are just in week 10/11 of vaccinations ?

I was using the numbers as an example, but they are roughly in line with what I had been reading about the gloom and doom articles about how nobody is going to deliver what they promised. (The articles which also mentioned how production has been ramping up; it's pretty shortsighted to try to extrapolate linearly when you acknowledge it's not a linear process.) 

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, studiot said:

The EU still had not placed firm orders at the beginning of January 2021, and indeed could not do so because it has still not licenced the vaccine.

I suppose it depends on the precise definition of "firm" orders. But IIRC already last year a couple of contracts were made between the EU and the involved firms pending authorization. This includes about 200 million doses of the J&J vaccine with conditions for further 200 million. Likewise there was an agreement with Moderna for around 80 million (I believe). However, I do not know the details of that deals, especially with regard to the timeline that were negotiated. The companies also ran into production problems in some plants as vaccine production in Europe had been ramping down prior to the pandemic. In addition, certain supply chains and probably additional monetary commitment increased delivery for the US, using production means on US soil, for example.

[studiot]

1 minute ago, CharonY said:

I suppose it depends on the precise definition of "firm" orders. But IIRC already last year a couple of contracts were made between the EU and the involved firms pending authorization. This includes about 200 million doses of the J&J vaccine with conditions for further 200 million. Likewise there was an agreement with Moderna for around 80 million (I believe). However, I do not know the details of that deals, especially with regard to the timeline that were negotiated. The companies also ran into production problems in some plants as vaccine production in Europe had been ramping down prior to the pandemic. In addition, certain supply chains and probably additional monetary commitment increased delivery for the US, using production means on US soil, for example.

You need to factor in the rest of my post that you referred to.

17 minutes ago, swansont said:

I was using the numbers as an example, but they are roughly in line with what I had been reading about the gloom and doom articles about how nobody is going to deliver what they promised. (The articles which also mentioned how production has been ramping up; it's pretty shortsighted to try to extrapolate linearly when you acknowledge it's not a linear process.) 

Thank you also for your replies (Zapatos beat you to it)

 

Here is an interesting article from the BBC covid correspondent on the nonsense about vaccine side effects.

Quote

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56375307

I was over the moon to get vaccinated. I've covered the coronavirus pandemic, including the race to develop a vaccine, since only a handful of people were infected in Wuhan.

So when it was my turn to roll up my sleeve at the GP surgery, it really felt like a moment.

But I'm going to be open and honest with you: the vaccine floored me.

Let's be clear, even with hindsight I'd do it all again. I'd rather have side effects than Covid, or another year of restrictions, or a higher chance of accidentally passing the virus onto a loved one.

I had my first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine at 0930 in the morning. That evening I spiralled rapidly downhill and could barely scrape myself out of bed for the next three days.

The worst was the migraine and vomiting, but I also had aches, chills and exhaustion.

It's fair to say I was moaning "Why me?" from my sick bed. But as I recovered, I wondered why do some of us get worse side effects than others, and do they mean I've built a super-strong immune response? So I spent an episode of Inside Health on BBC Radio 4 finding out.

.........

 

[zapatos]

20 minutes ago, studiot said:

Thank you, they are getting on pretty fast then.

As swansont said

Where did they come from ?

To the best of my knowledge the relatively large quantity is a result of Operation Warp Speed.

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-319

Quote

Operation Warp Speed (OWS)—a partnership between the Departments of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Defense (DOD)—aimed to help accelerate the development of a COVID-19 vaccine. GAO found that OWS and vaccine companies adopted several strategies to accelerate vaccine development and mitigate risk. For example, OWS selected vaccine candidates that use different mechanisms to stimulate an immune response (i.e., platform technologies; see figure). Vaccine companies also took steps, such as starting large-scale manufacturing during clinical trials and combining clinical trial phases or running them concurrently. Clinical trials gather data on safety and efficacy, with more participants in each successive phase (e.g., phase 3 has more participants than phase 2).

Basically the US spread a lot of money around covering multiple strategies without knowing what would be successful. This increased the likelihood of at least some wins.

In addition, the public/private partnership has seen activities such as the Army Corps of Engineers overseeing construction projects to increase manufacturing capacity.

[swansont]

1 hour ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

I am struggling to find good media articles in English that mention official statements given by AstraZeneca that AstraZeneca will not be able to keep up with their delivery promises to EU... here is one that I just googled: https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/241757-astrazeneca-vaccine-new-shipping-delays-in-the-eu/lang/en

"...this reduction could reach 60% of doses secured in the first quarter of the year, for a total of 31 million doses instead of the 80 million doses expected in the EU..."

Here is another article (but without numbers): https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/astrazeneca-says-initial-eu-delivery-volumes-of-covid-vaccine-to-fall-short.html

 

Apparently, they experienced low yields and therefore delays.

"Low yields" sounds like "lower than expected" rather than "we knew this would happen" 

 

1 hour ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

How should I understand this:

a) Something really unexpected happen, something that almost never happens during vaccine production?

Again you make a claim without backing it up. 

https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL32655.html

On October 5, 2004, Chiron...notified U.S. health officials that British regulatory authorities had suspended production of influenza (“flu”) vaccine in its plant in Liverpool, England, due to vaccine safety concerns. 

A shingles vaccine had shortages a few years ago because they couldn't ramp up production fast enough.

 

And here's one about the mRNA vaccines, which rely on special ingredients, which have been in short supply

https://www.vox.com/22311268/covid-vaccine-shortage-moderna-pfizer-lipid-nanoparticles

We’re still racing to make a special type of lipid, a relatively unknown but critical component of the vaccines being manufactured by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech

 

1 hour ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

 How do I know they intentionally overstated their delivery capabilities (to grab contracts)? If I would know, I would sue. I said "I am not buying it", which is a typical intro into a sentence that you are strongly suspecting... 

IOW, evidence be damned. Not needed when it's inconvenient!

 

1 hour ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

But even if not true, the important is what people in EU believe (and I think they believe that companies are selling elsewhere despite promises to EU, forcing EU into a dire situation).

Which you could claim if you saw the contracts, and knew who got priority and who paid more. But you admit you don't have this information.

 

[Prof Reza Sanaye]

19 hours ago, zapatos said:

WHY does the short development cycle make it less acceptable for political decisions surrounding the use of the Astrazeneca vaccine?

In fact , makes it more acceptable . .  .

[Danijel Gorupec]

36 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Why would you be surprised?

Hmm, because otherwise I have to believe that pharmaceutical companies were not capable to estimate their own production capabilities, not even close. And this is hard to believe for such experienced companies.

(Yes, it can be that evil EU politicians fabricated and influenced all of it... companies were really careful when making promises, but EU politicians presented overinflated promises to the public... then companies made clear public statements that they never made such overinflated promises... but evil EU politicians managed to suppress such statements and even rewrote them to look like apologies for not being able to deliver...... The problem with this hypothesis is that nobody in EU believes our politicians are that smart.)

[zapatos]

24 minutes ago, Prof Reza Sanaye said:

In fact , makes it more acceptable . .  .

You are as slippery as an eel. I give up.

[Danijel Gorupec]

24 minutes ago, swansont said:

"Low yields" sounds like "lower than expected" rather than "we knew this would happen"

 

But this is my whole point. The numbers presented to EU public were not just slightly higher than was actually realized. They were outrageously higher. How came such a large mistake? What is your explanation, then?

 

[zapatos]

16 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

Hmm, because otherwise I have to believe that pharmaceutical companies were not capable to estimate their own production capabilities, not even close. And this is hard to believe for such experienced companies.

 

Those are your only two options? That's your only evidence?

Clearly you've come to a conclusion absent reason or evidence.

[Danijel Gorupec]

2 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Those are your only two options? That's your only evidence?

Clearly you've come to a conclusion absent reason or evidence.

Do you think their wrong estimation was a honest mistake or do you think their estimation was basically correct but somebody inflated it when presenting to EU public?

[studiot]

32 minutes ago, zapatos said:

To the best of my knowledge the relatively large quantity is a result of Operation Warp Speed.

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-319

Basically the US spread a lot of money around covering multiple strategies without knowing what would be successful. This increased the likelihood of at least some wins.

In addition, the public/private partnership has seen activities such as the Army Corps of Engineers overseeing construction projects to increase manufacturing capacity.

Thank you again for more useful information +1.

 

It may be worth noting that no one outside the contract process knows exactly what went on and what short cuts, if any, were taken by various organisations.

The US seems to have had a robust approach (even under Trump) which echoes the UK one of spreading the risk over many types of vaccine.

I don't know how many here have participated in government procurement programmes on either side of the 'contract', but the UK government is currently being criticised for over short cutting the normal rules.
I think the EU was a great deal more circumspect about this.

I have personal experience of writing and administering contracts under both UK and EU rules and can confirm that there are many 'stages' to go through before commitment and even then the client can often pull out after this.

 

27 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

Yes, it can be that evil EU politicians fabricated and influenced all of it.

Was it the EU politicians or the unelected beaurocrats ?

[Area54]

19 hours ago, studiot said:

A radical view might be that it is amazing how long a time the covid vaccine took, not how short a time.

Think back to the spring of 2020.

Political leaders in the UK, America and Europe were all promising (hoping for) a vaccine ' in use by the autumn and before the 20/21 winter'.

It was only the scientists who were saying "we would be lucky to have a working vaccine by 2021"

 

Now we have the press and media whipping up antagonism to the Asta vaccine, using any excuse generated. Specifically those by the same crank lobbies that seem to oppose any modern medicine.
They have too much media exposure. The media loves a controversy. Congratulatory reports are few and far between, over too quickly and soon forgotton in the welter of bad news.

 

Excellent perspective. Excellent post.

[Danijel Gorupec]

3 minutes ago, studiot said:

Was it the EU politicians or the unelected beaurocrats ?

Somebody powerful enough that has some interest (revenge, perhaps)... Sorry, I have hard time finding the right words or terms in English and so my writing might not always be clear (I might use terms that are too narrow or too wide).

[zapatos]

9 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

Do you think their wrong estimation was a honest mistake or do you think their estimation was basically correct but somebody inflated it when presenting to EU public?

I don't have enough information to say either way. Do you?

[Danijel Gorupec]

3 minutes ago, zapatos said:

I don't have enough information to say either way. Do you?

You are smart.... Did you ever work in sales?

Fine, we don't have enough information. Should we demand it?

[Prof Reza Sanaye]

45 minutes ago, zapatos said:

You are as slippery as an eel. I give up.

You are a very bright interlocutor to talk to , to tell you the truth . ... 

[zapatos]

27 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

You are smart.... Did you ever work in sales?

 

No, but I'd bet a shiny new dime that when governments were talking to drug companies they weren't dealing with one of the field sales reps who was scheming so that he could afford a two-week vacation in Italy this summer.

31 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

Fine, we don't have enough information. Should we demand it?

I'm not sure. What is your goal once you have the information? Are you looking to call out liars? Hold people financially accountable to the citizens?

[John Cuthber]

On 3/16/2021 at 6:12 PM, Prof Reza Sanaye said:

One good point to be discussed here is how long have other significantly successful vaccines taken to be  "developed"  before being rolled out onto the public  ??  ??

Why?

Time does not make a vaccine better.

You don't fatten a pig by weighing it.

[Danijel Gorupec]

7 minutes ago, zapatos said:

I'm not sure. What is your goal once you have the information? Are you looking to call out liars? Hold people financially accountable to the citizens?

Knowing myself, I would probably do nothing. I am not an activist... But I would be interested to learn if a simple sales lie caused the distrust avalanche that will eventually kill people.