Space - Can Private Industry actually compete with China?

[DeepSeaBase]

I think this "Angry Astronaut" guy makes a great point. Can private industry compete against China? China has basically hit the tarmac with full afterburners and they already have achieved more than SpaceX or Axios combined. US private companies like SpaceX have had some significant accomplishments such as their finally successful re-landing of Starship, but I think time has ran out.

China already has equal lift capacity to SpaceX and ULA and Arianne, and they are going bigger. And they are going for a unilateral space station approach which has some very interesting speculative militarization aspects.

 

 

[Phi for All]

I think arguments from incredulity are misplaced when trying to meaningfully talk about ANYTHING that involves so many humans.

[CharonY]

It is not an either or question. China also has a fledgling private space industry (mostly involved in satellite delivery).  https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/21/1016513/china-private-commercial-space-industry-dominance/

And looking at an apple-to-apple comparison the Chinese private sector has total lower volume in investments than their US counterparts. Also regarding unilateralism, the US congress has banned NASA from any bilateral agreements with China (with few exceptions). 

However, with respect to the Chinese space station, there are at least agreements with the Italian space agency and  I have heard of some European universities involved in designing microgravity experiments.

 

[zapatos]

2 hours ago, DeepSeaBase said:

Can private industry compete against China?

In what respect? Are you suggesting that China is going to run private industry out of business?

[DeepSeaBase]

15 minutes ago, zapatos said:

In what respect? Are you suggesting that China is going to run private industry out of business

China is going to beat the pants off private industry and militarize space.

They also have orbited a space plane.

So they are now on par with US but way beyond SpaceX or Axios or ULA.

Found a very interesting video on Chinese capabilities and where they are headed.

 

 

Am I mistaken?

I thought the whole reason US is giving money to private billionaires is because they will provide a better service than NASA did at securing space. 

 

But now you're telling me it doesn't matter they are failing?

 

Why are we paying them then? So billionaires can vacation in space?

Edited May 11, 2021 by DeepSeaBase

[zapatos]

7 minutes ago, DeepSeaBase said:

China is going to beat the pants off private industry...

Sorry but can you convert that idiom to what it means in practical terms? I'm still unclear what it means to 'compete' against China wrt space. Are you saying China will win international launch contracts that the US will lose? Or that China can militarize space better than US private industry can militarize space?

[Area54]

3 hours ago, DeepSeaBase said:

 Can private industry compete against China? China has basically hit the tarmac with full afterburners and they already have achieved more than SpaceX or Axios combined. US private companies like SpaceX have had some significant accomplishments such as their finally successful re-landing of Starship, but I think time has ran out.

What do  you mean when you talk about "competing with China"? If I plan to run 2,000 miles this year and my neighbour is targetting selection for the GB athletics team over 800m, are we competing. We're both involved with running, but our goals are quite different. China has first and foremost political goals in space. Second they are targeting political goals. And, of course, political goals are also important to them. In contrast SpaceX's aim is to make humanity a multi-planet species. Where do you see the competition? Chinese plans to take over Mars? Could be, but what is your take?

 

[Phi for All]

1 hour ago, DeepSeaBase said:

Found a very interesting video on Chinese capabilities and where they are headed.

 

Am I mistaken?

It's easy to be mistaken when comparing approaches to space capabilities. The US heavily encourages private enterprise in general, whereas China favors state involvement at every level. You should read Lost Without Translation: Identifying Gaps in U.S. Perceptions of the Chinese Commercial Space Sector. It's by the same folks at Secure World Foundation that produced the interesting video you linked to. They also publish a fantastic resource called Handbook for New Actors in Space, which is a must-read for anyone in political leadership today.

2 hours ago, DeepSeaBase said:

I thought the whole reason US is giving money to private billionaires is because they will provide a better service than NASA did at securing space. 

Private launches are under the aegis of the country of origin. Investment by the country in success for a private contract is also an insurance policy to limit liability. NASA has done a stellar job spectacularly, but the US tends towards private solutions when there's so much potential for profit.

[DeepSeaBase]

3 hours ago, Phi for All said:

Private launches are under the aegis of the country of origin. Investment by the country in success for a private contract is also an insurance policy to limit liability. NASA has done a stellar job spectacularly, but the US tends towards private solutions when there's so much potential for profit

I don't disagree with what you said except for one point.

The US is investing a lot less money into space exploration than China is, and China has advantages afforded its government organized space agency where as you noted the US is devolving its space industry.

As such, in the Angry Astronaut video, he points out how little Congress financed the Axios Space Station request that NASA did give. So NASA awarded them an amount and Congress said no.

China is full steam ahead.

So maybe I should ask a question. Must US government invest more?

[zapatos]

19 minutes ago, DeepSeaBase said:

The US is investing a lot less money into space exploration than China is, and China has advantages afforded its government organized space agency where as you noted the US is devolving its space industry.

At the risk of again having my request being turned down as you theatrically 'yawn', could you be so kind as to provide a citation for your claim?

According to everything I can find, the US spends significantly more than China on space exploration. For example...

Quote

In terms of overall government funding for space activities, China outspent every country in the world in 2020, except for the United States. However, Beijing’s $8.9 billion in space funding was a fraction of the US’ $48 billion.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/space-exploration-and-us-competitiveness

[CharonY]

2 hours ago, zapatos said:

At the risk of again having my request being turned down as you theatrically 'yawn', could you be so kind as to provide a citation for your claim?

According to everything I can find, the US spends significantly more than China on space exploration. For example...

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/space-exploration-and-us-competitiveness

Also to emphasize that the article I linked also shows that the US private space sector has raised much more than the Chinese private sector.

[SpaceJac111]

But how this space station can help China militarize space and for what? WIll they destroy all US' orbiters, satellites and space stations? I don't think so.

[Phi for All]

1 hour ago, SpaceJac111 said:

But how this space station can help China militarize space and for what? WIll they destroy all US' orbiters, satellites and space stations? I don't think so.

Space has been a relatively peaceful place so far, but as more investments are made in satellite technology, and more states come to rely on the data and services these systems provide, the more potential for disagreements and conflicts there are. The United Nations has a special committee dedicated to peaceful pursuits above the planet.

China doesn't need to destroy ALL the equipment to be a major threat. Warfare is deadly enough at ground level, you wouldn't want to see the cataclysmic damage that would occur if we unleashed something nasty that continued to orbit the whole globe. Even if there are no active hostilities, there is the Kessler Syndrome, which details how space debris can exponentially increase due to collisions with itself, creating an environment hostile to our current technologies and pursuits. If we follow our typical thought processes, states will pursue defense of their orbital investments, and they'll continue to do so in aggressive ways. Outer space should be different, I think we need to always be humans first when we go off-planet, and nationality shouldn't be so much of a factor.

[beecee]

I have a question. After reading much of your posts on space travel, it seems to me at least that you have done nothing other then criticise the US/NASA and its private space concerns, and at the same time down play the necessity of space travel and exploration in general.

Am I wrong? And sorry, I must ask this, do you have some sort of agenda you are pushing? or are you someway so tied up with say, deep sea exploration, and probably the lack of funding and research in that area of science? Let me say then, if the last senetence is true, I agree with you. I believe that we should be spending all the money in the world, in a united effort to explore and research the unexplored regions of our Oceans, in a united International effort. But hey! don't take away from space exploration when doing so! That also is a totally neccessary scientific/exploratory path of science and progress. 

 

Edited May 20, 2021 by beecee

[SpaceJac111]

12 hours ago, beecee said:

I have a question. After reading much of your posts on space travel, it seems to me at least that you have done nothing other then criticise the US/NASA and its private space concerns, and at the same time down play the necessity of space travel and exploration in general.

Am I wrong? And sorry, I must ask this, do you have some sort of agenda you are pushing? or are you someway so tied up with say, deep sea exploration, and probably the lack of funding and research in that area of science? Let me say then, if the last senetence is true, I agree with you. I believe that we should be spending all the money in the world, in a united effort to explore and research the unexplored regions of our Oceans, in a united International effort. But hey! don't take away from space exploration when doing so! That also is a totally neccessary scientific/exploratory path of science and progress. 

 

Perhaps he or she is among people who just like searching for drawbacks and criticizing their nation without any reason. ANd even if this person is tied up deep sea exploration as you've said, is it the reason to criticize the successes in space exploration? I don't think so.