Covid's Delta Variant

[Kartazion]

Quote

Delta variant, also known as lineage B.1.617.2, is a variant of lineage B.1.617 of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 The Delta Variant 

The Delta Variant is progressing and now infects people vaccinated in France * 

Will it last to the point of wondering if its evolution of the mutaion at the level of the Spike protein would be possible over the variants to make the vaccine deficient?
And to spend the whole Greek alphabet there? Indeed the vaccine does not prevent it from remaining and the epidemic will not over until a natural extension of it?

* The Delta variant has mainly affected people already vaccinated in the Landes nursing home Le variant Delta a touché en majorité des personnes déjà vaccinées dans l’Ehpad des Landes

[swansont]

Which vaccine(s)?

What rate are people getting hospitalized or dying? 

[Kartazion]

Impossible to know. It is not stipulated. But According to the French Ministry of Health, 79% of elderly people residing in nursing homes have received a first dose of Pfizer vaccine.

Can I change my vaccine at the second dose? An ongoing trial to assess the risks Peut-on changer de vaccin à la deuxième dose ? Un essai en cours pour évaluer les risques

"A "vaccine interchangeability" trial was launched in England in February. France started theirs on May 28. The second injections with a different vaccine were already being given in France, but only to the 553,000 people under the age of 55 who had received a first dose of AstraZeneca."

[exchemist]

33 minutes ago, Kartazion said:

The Delta Variant is progressing and now infects people vaccinated in France * 

Will it last to the point of wondering if its evolution of the mutaion at the level of the Spike protein would be possible over the variants to make the vaccine deficient?
And to spend the whole Greek alphabet there? Indeed the vaccine does not prevent it from remaining and the epidemic will not over until a natural extension of it?

* The Delta variant has mainly affected people already vaccinated in the Landes nursing home Le variant Delta a touché en majorité des personnes déjà vaccinées dans l’Ehpad des Landes

Yes but out of 23, only 3 have gone to hospital with it. My 93 year old father got Covid at his nursing home after being vaccinated, too. But he had no fever, was just rather breathless for a week (no oxygen needed) and lost his appetite, and then made a full recovery. 

UK experience with the Delta variant is that the vaccines are effective at preventing serious disease, provided you have had both shots. This finding seems to be based on the rates of hospital admission since the Delta variant started to spread. Collecting data on whether vaccines prevent a person testing +ve is harder to obtain. I have not seen any numbers on that.  

The people in nursing homes are very fragile and their immune systems are weak. It is not surprising that they can catch the virus after being vaccinated. What matters is how ill they get. The vaccines do seem to help, considerably, with this.  

 

[Kartazion]

6 minutes ago, exchemist said:

Yes but out of 23, only 3 have gone to hospital with it. My 93 year old father got Covid at his nursing home after being vaccinated, too. But he had no fever, was just rather breathless for a week (no oxygen needed) and lost his appetite, and then made a full recovery. 

UK experience with the Delta variant is that the vaccines are effective at preventing serious disease, provided you have had both shots. This finding seems to be based on the rates of hospital admission since the Delta variant started to spread. Collecting data on whether vaccines prevent a person testing +ve is harder to obtain. I have not seen any numbers on that.  

The people in nursing homes are very fragile and their immune systems are weak. It is not surprising that they can catch the virus after being vaccinated. What matters is how ill they get. The vaccines do seem to help, considerably, with this.  

Yes the Delta variant is not virulent for most of the vaccinees.

My remark is more oriented on the durability of the virus itself.
 

Will we all be vaccinated and the covid will still be there? And evolves to the vaccine-defying variant?
 

48 minutes ago, swansont said:

What rate are people getting hospitalized or dying? 

Very little. Why?

 

Now there is the "Delta plus" variant.

Delta plus: Scientists say too early to tell risk of Covid-19 variant
 

[CharonY]

11 minutes ago, Kartazion said:

Will we all be vaccinated and the covid will still be there? And evolves to the vaccine-defying variant?

If vaccination is the only measure then SARS-CoV-2 is likely to stick around (we have got another thread about that here somewhere).

Fundamentally our most likeliest point of stamping out the disease was early in the pandemic, or around the summer time when we had a reduction in many areas to more manageable levels. Of course we decided to open up at that point...

 

Now, the hope is that with vaccination the virus will be more manageable like other disease outbreaks that we deal with. What we do not know yet are things like overall health burden, especially if we take long-haul symptoms into account.

[Kartazion]

5 hours ago, CharonY said:

Now, the hope is that with vaccination the virus will be more manageable like other disease outbreaks that we deal with. 

"With its massive vaccination campaign, Israel believed it had put the Covid epidemic behind it. But the country is facing a rise in new cases, linked to the Delta variant, which makes it fear the arrival of a third wave." says L'obs in France
 

5 hours ago, CharonY said:

What we do not know yet are things like overall health burden, especially if we take long-haul symptoms into account.

This is comparable to a handicappe of a large part of people who were not. Covid damage cannot yet be assessed at all socioeconomic levels, but it will be significant. But more than half of patients who suffer from long-term Covid would see their state of health improve from the first injection of the anti-Covid vaccine.

The biological root of humanity is now damaged.

[CharonY]

20 minutes ago, Kartazion said:

"With its massive vaccination campaign, Israel believed it had put the Covid epidemic behind it. But the country is facing a rise in new cases, linked to the Delta variant, which makes it fear the arrival of a third wave." says L'obs in France
 

This is comparable to a handicappe of a large part of people who were not. Covid damage cannot yet be assessed at all socioeconomic levels, but it will be significant. But more than half of patients who suffer from long-term Covid would see their state of health improve from the first injection of the anti-Covid vaccine.

The biological root of humanity is now damaged.

Not sure what you mean. We have plenty of diseases that have a  significant  burden  on public health. Influenza is responsible for 10k deaths in France. Covid is likely to add to it but it is not the first nor will be the last.

[Kartazion]

4 minutes ago, CharonY said:

Not sure what you mean. We have plenty of diseases that have a  significant  burden  on public health. Influenza is responsible for 10k deaths in France. Covid is likely to add to it but it is not the first nor will be the last.

6 hours ago, CharonY said:

What we do not know yet are things like overall health burden, especially if we take long-haul symptoms into account.

Ok. So let's say the impact of a seasonal flu.
 

But I was also referring to the impact of long-covid

[swansont]

11 hours ago, Kartazion said:

Very little. Why?

Because it matters in terms of impact to people.

Quote

Will we all be vaccinated and the covid will still be there? And evolves to the vaccine-defying variant?

If we're all vaccinated evolving a resistant strain is much less likely. It's happening because people aren't vaccinated, and are not following (or being required to follow) the protocols to stop the spread.

5 hours ago, Kartazion said:

more than half of patients who suffer from long-term Covid would see their state of health improve from the first injection of the anti-Covid vaccine

What do you base this on? I missed any link to studies showing that the vaccine eliminates issues of long COVID.

[exchemist]

11 minutes ago, swansont said:

Because it matters in terms of impact to people.

If we're all vaccinated evolving a resistant strain is much less likely. It's happening because people aren't vaccinated, and are not following (or being required to follow) the protocols to stop the spread.

What do you base this on? I missed any link to studies showing that the vaccine eliminates issues of long COVID.

There do seem to be some indications it may help long Covid: https://3ca26cd7-266e-4609-b25f-6f3d1497c4cf.filesusr.com/ugd/8bd4fe_a338597f76bf4279a851a7a4cb0e0a74.pdf

But indeed studies on long Covid have not had much time to report, as yet. 

[swansont]

4 minutes ago, exchemist said:

There do seem to be some indications it may help long Covid: https://3ca26cd7-266e-4609-b25f-6f3d1497c4cf.filesusr.com/ugd/8bd4fe_a338597f76bf4279a851a7a4cb0e0a74.pdf

But indeed studies on long Covid have not had much time to report, as yet. 

As that says, it's anecdotal, and so the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy cannot be ruled out

[exchemist]

2 hours ago, swansont said:

As that says, it's anecdotal, and so the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy cannot be ruled out

Indeed, but worth a look, in view of the numbers reporting long Covid.

[Kartazion]

7 hours ago, swansont said:

What do you base this on? I missed any link to studies showing that the vaccine eliminates issues of long COVID.

Everywhere.

I have several sources.

[Phi for All]

5 minutes ago, Kartazion said:

Everywhere.

I have several sources.

!

Moderator Note

The links to said sources aren't showing up properly.

 

[Kartazion]

 

1 minute ago, Phi for All said:

!

Moderator Note

The links to said sources aren't showing up properly.

 

Long Covid symptoms ease after vaccination, survey finds
 

Long COVID: Vaccination may ease symptoms

7 hours ago, swansont said:

What do you base this on? I missed any link to studies showing that the vaccine eliminates issues of long COVID.

Yes for sure you have missed.

But eliminate is a big word. Rather improve.

7 hours ago, swansont said:

If we're all vaccinated evolving a resistant strain is much less likely. It's happening because people aren't vaccinated, and are not following (or being required to follow) the protocols to stop the spread.

I don't understand. People who are vaccinated carry the virus and the virus continues evolving a resistant strain. But are you telling me that it would be eliminated if all people are vaccinated?

[CharonY]

47 minutes ago, Kartazion said:

 

Long Covid symptoms ease after vaccination, survey finds
 

Long COVID: Vaccination may ease symptoms

Yes for sure you have missed.

But eliminate is a big word. Rather improve.

I don't understand. People who are vaccinated carry the virus and the virus continues evolving a resistant strain. But are you telling me that it would be eliminated if all people are vaccinated?

Vaccinated folks are less likely to get infected from the virus in the first place, and even if infected they overall viral load tends to be lower. I.e. they produce fewer particles and the overall (population-wide) reservoir of viruses that could mutate is lower. 

[swansont]

4 hours ago, Kartazion said:

Yes for sure you have missed.

If nobody posted links until I asked, I didn’t miss them, and all of the links have been to surveys reporting anecdotes. They are not scientific studies, for the reason I have already given.

 

4 hours ago, Kartazion said:

I don't understand. People who are vaccinated carry the virus and the virus continues evolving a resistant strain. But are you telling me that it would be eliminated if all people are vaccinated?

If you would actually read what I wrote, you’ll see I said much less likely. So I am NOT telling you that it would be eliminated if all people are vaccinated.

Less incidence of the virus would mean less of an opportunity to mutate. More vaccinated people means less incidence of the virus.

4 hours ago, Kartazion said:

Everywhere.

I have several sources.

So far you’ve provided zero links to scientific studies

[Kartazion]

11 minutes ago, swansont said:

If nobody posted links until I asked, I didn’t miss them, and all of the links have been to surveys reporting anecdotes. They are not scientific studies, for the reason I have already given.

The study is led by Yale faculty members Akiko Iwasaki, Aaron Ring, Wade Schulz, Charles Dela Cruz, Erica Spatz, and Harlan Krumholz.
Study probes vaccines’ effects on people with ‘Long COVID’ | YaleNews

Result: 8bd4fe_a338597f76bf4279a851a7a4cb0e0a74.pdf (filesusr.com)

"LongCovidSOS launched a survey in partnership with the University of Exeter and University of Kent to find out how people with Long Covid respond to COVID-19 vaccines"

41 minutes ago, swansont said:

So far you’ve provided zero links to scientific studies

It depends on what. But there you already have a confirmation here:

Are vaccines safe in patients with Long COVID? A prospective observational study | medRxiv
"When compared to matched unvaccinated participants from the same cohort, those who had receive a vaccine had a small overall improvement in Long Covid symptoms, with a decrease in worsening symptoms (5.6% vaccinated vs 14.2% unvaccinated) and increase in symptom resolution (23.2% vaccinated vs 15.4% unvaccinated) (p=0.035). No difference in response was identified between Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines."

[swansont]

58 minutes ago, Kartazion said:

It depends on what. But there you already have a confirmation here:

Are vaccines safe in patients with Long COVID? A prospective observational study | medRxiv
"When compared to matched unvaccinated participants from the same cohort, those who had receive a vaccine had a small overall improvement in Long Covid symptoms, with a decrease in worsening symptoms (5.6% vaccinated vs 14.2% unvaccinated) and increase in symptom resolution (23.2% vaccinated vs 15.4% unvaccinated) (p=0.035). No difference in response was identified between Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines."

Right after that is the conclusion

“Receipt of vaccination with either an mRNA or adenoviral vector vaccine was not associated with a worsening of Long Covid symptoms, quality of life, or mental wellbeing. Individuals with prolonged COVID-19 symptoms should receive vaccinations as suggested by national guidance.” which is a weaker statement. Probably because there were just 44 vaccinated participants, meaning the sampling error is ~15%, and the results showing improvement are within the error bars.

Also, from the introduction:

“there are no published studies on the impact on symptoms in patients with Long Covid. Anecdotal reports have suggested both a potential benefit and worsening of symptoms post vaccination with the uncertainty leading to some vaccine hesitancy amongst affected individuals.”

 

 

[Kartazion]

25 minutes ago, swansont said:

Right after that is the conclusion

“Receipt of vaccination with either an mRNA or adenoviral vector vaccine was not associated with a worsening of Long Covid symptoms, quality of life, or mental wellbeing.

It's a good start.

 

But if you are based on these results from this investigation:

Quote

Conclusion

The results of this survey should reassure people with Long Covid that their chances of experiencing
an overall worsening of their symptoms after vaccination is small. More than half saw at least some
improvement to their symptom status. Since COVID-19 vaccinations appear to have the potential to
improve the wellbeing of those with Long Covid as well as provide protection from reinfection, we
recommend that more structured, longitudinal trials take place in order to confirm and expand on
these findings, together with further research on possible mechanisms.

8bd4fe_a338597f76bf4279a851a7a4cb0e0a74.pdf (filesusr.com)

 

[beecee]

Sydney and Melbourne are in current lockdown. The following video is doing the rounds, primarilly because of the pretentious idiots conducting protest marches etc, claiming it a violation of their rights. 

If you are offended by colourful language [just one sample] do not watch.

 

[iNow]

2 hours ago, beecee said:

If you are offended by colourful language [just one sample] do not watch.

Phew. That was a super close call. Thx for the warning! 😂