War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[iNow]

3 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

 I think it is relevant given the importance of politico-economic pressures, or the potential threat of them.

It’s also useful that it’s being stated openly like this with eyes wide open. Others will follow his lead, join the chorus, and assert greater pressure/have greater leverage when they are singing from this same one hymnal. 

[MigL]

Seems North Korea is tired of being upstaged by Russia and China.
KJU wants his rank as the world's #1 bad guy back.

The North Korean missile launch grounded all flights on the West Coast ( and Alaska ) for the duration of the missile's flight into the Sea of Japan.

FAA orders 'full ground stop' at ALL west coast airports (msn.com)

I guess it's been too long since anyone paid attention to him ...

[iNow]

1 hour ago, MigL said:

I guess it's been too long since anyone paid attention to him ...

He misses sending love letters with Trump.

Meanwhile, I really hope Putin is just using these actions leverage in his negotiations. Troop buildups continue and cover multiple sides of the border with Ukraine (all but West). Military helicopters are being positioned now. 

Sure, US will hit 'em in the pocketbook, but I suspect they have enough crytocurrency holdings and related lands that it won't be much noticed by the powers that be. 

[Moontanman]

On 12/5/2021 at 11:36 PM, iNow said:

So, if China tries to take control of Taiwan… and intelligence suggests it’s more likely to happen now,than it has been for decades… should the US and any country considered an ally respond? How might they respond?

China's navy is a poor rival to the US pacific fleet, if the US went into all out war mode China would lose it's navy quite fast, it's aircraft carrier is a joke even to china and so are the planes that fly from it being called some like a flopping fish in Chinese because of their tendency to take off from the carrier and dive into the water.

Of course that wouldn't necessarily keep china from doing it's best to fight the US but my bet is that china would resort to nuclear weapons if the US actually landed on Chinese soil.

Russia is a wild card, Putin is an autocrat whose grip on  power is based on his image as much as anything. He might do something crazy just to maintain his shirtless horse riding.    

  

[JIMMY12345]

The US position seems to be clear. There will be no more costly interventions. At least in regards to Ukraine. They will gift arms and money to Ukraine should they need it.

President Putin is part of the old guard. He was not naturally happy with the break up of the USSR. This was precipitated more by economics than politics.

The other threat he senses is NATO.

One side hopes to dismantle .This mainly by hope. Although it may be aided by a little crook. That's the East. The West wants to expand. The USA is a little more than mildly irritated by the bills eagerly passed on by Europe. However they will still aid country's like Ukraine. Even if not to bring them into the NATO fold.

NATO and Russia are finely balanced as regards Nuclear weapons. Russia is highly delighted UK is out of the EU. Caviare and champagne. Next on the list chisel away at NATO. The countries that breakaway will ramp up their nuclear arsenals. After all they cannot rely on family membership of NATO. Better to do their own thing. One possibility is a slight upsurge of weapons on the Western side. Russia will naturally not want to be left out. They will have to ramp up.

Russia is safer with NATO. Committee's carefully consider and deliberate. Individual country's may be more trigger happy on the nuclear button.

Does Russia really want that? Both sides have better things to spend their money on. They could spend it on joint Space and science research.

[iNow]

Appreciate your read of the history jimmy, but this thread is intended more for forecasts of the future, specifically how the US might respond should these incursions happen.

To that broader thread purpose:

Yesterday there were several false flag operations conducted by Russia where they entered Ukraine and pretended to be Ukrainians acting in provocative ways (being denied of course, but intelligence across countries agrees that’s what happened). Internet troll traffic from Russia in parallel has heightened and is spreading disinformation in predictable ways. When this has happened in the past, it was usually less than 7 days away from more kinetic/real-world events starting. 

Tl;dr - It looks rather likely that something bigger will happen this week. 

[geordief]

26 minutes ago, iNow said:

Appreciate your read of the history jimmy, but this thread is intended more for forecasts of the future, specifically how the US might respond should these incursions happen.

To that broader thread purpose:

Yesterday there were several false flag operations conducted by Russia where they entered Ukraine and pretended to be Ukrainians acting in provocative ways (being denied of course, but intelligence across countries agrees that’s what happened). Internet troll traffic from Russia in parallel has heightened and is spreading disinformation in predictable ways. When this has happened in the past, it was usually less than 7 days away from more kinetic/real-world events starting. 

Tl;dr - It looks rather likely that something bigger will happen this week. 

Are false flag operations the same as agent provocateur  actions?

Are they ,if these reports are correct trying to escalate tensions whilst maintaining  deniabiity?

[MigL]

In addition to the 'false flag' provocations, where Russia sends agents to disrupt Russian sympathizer operations in Ukraine as a pretense for military intervention, there was also a major cyber attack to disable Ukranian infrastructure.
Seems to be V Putin's MO, as a similar strategy was used prior to annexing the Crimean peninsula.

I don't think the US will get involved militarily, just economic sanctions, at least until Europe makes an effort to police its own 'back yard', as was the case in the former Yugoslavia.
I think V Putin realizes this, and is hoping Europe's dependance on his gas will keep them from getting involved, and drawing in the US; economic sanctions he can deal with, only the common people will suffer.

[geordief]

29 minutes ago, MigL said:

........ 'false flag' provocations, where Russia sends agents to disrupt Russian sympathizer operations in Ukraine as a pretense for military intervention

What might those provocations look like?Might there be "friendly" casualties?

[iNow]

1 hour ago, MigL said:

think V Putin realizes this, and is hoping Europe's dependance on his gas will keep them from getting involved

Exactly, and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline into Germany seems to be the flashpoint right now in that space. It’s being politicized within the US by the likes of Ted Cruz saying it should be off the table in terms of sanctions. 

Yet another reason to move to clean energy I suppose. 
 

1 hour ago, geordief said:

Are they ,if these reports are correct trying to escalate tensions whilst maintaining  deniabiity?

That’s my understanding, yes. It’s a bit like when far right activists pretended to be antifa and started vandalizing property during BLM protests. It allows for a narrative that big responses were justified because someone needed to stop those reviled antifa people. 

Well, same thing here. By sending in their own people, Russia sets a pretext for invasion. They’ve setup camps of operatives within Ukraine border to engage in “attacks” against Russian troops and even the Russian speaking / Russian supporting residents of Ukraine. On that basis, Russia can go in to stop those evil doers (who are, in fact, their own agents). 

As I noted above, Russian trolls are also already fabricating stories across social media suggesting they’re being provoked to going in by Ukrainians. It’s basically a chess move. They make it look like Ukraine deserved invasion so when they actually invade they can pretend their cause is juste.

After all, they know the rest of us as John Q. Public will just argue about it endlessly since we can’t even agree on basic facts like the sky is blue or Biden actually won the US election online anymore. 

1 hour ago, MigL said:

only the common people will suffer.

Indeed. Hell have some pissed off oligarchs max about losing a few billion rubles, but all will be fine whilst the common man takes the brunt. But better solutions seem to be in short supply since escalations too quickly go nuclear 

[StringJunky]

38 minutes ago, iNow said:

 But better solutions seem to be in short supply since escalations too quickly go nuclear 

Speaking of nuclear: the Russians wouldn't have  such leverage if that was the preferred energy source, instead of gas, until other greener sources matured or new ones realized.

[TheVat]

52 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Speaking of nuclear: the Russians wouldn't have  such leverage if that was the preferred energy source, instead of gas, until other greener sources matured or new ones realized.

Maybe.  Kazakhstan, by a wide margin, is the world's leading source of uranium.  The Russians might have found a means to interfere there.  In any case, to paraphrase Chris Hitchens, ideology poisons everything.  

 

On 1/12/2022 at 12:53 PM, Moontanman said:

 

Russia is a wild card, Putin is an autocrat whose grip on  power is based on his image as much as anything. He might do something crazy just to maintain his shirtless horse riding.    

  

Don't most riders prefer their horses to be shirtless?

 

[J.C.MacSwell]

3 hours ago, TheVat said:

  Don't most riders prefer their horses to be shirtless?

 

Going that way, are we?

4 hours ago, StringJunky said:

Speaking of nuclear: the Russians wouldn't have  such leverage if that was the preferred energy source, instead of gas, until other greener sources matured or new ones realized.

Or we could be in for a coaled war...

3 hours ago, TheVat said:

Maybe.  Kazakhstan, by a wide margin, is the world's leading source of uranium.  The Russians might have found a means to interfere there.  In any case, to paraphrase Chris Hitchens, ideology poisons everything.  

 

 

 

Did not know that. More than 3 times Canada (or Australia)

(+1 except I already +1ed the shirtless horse)

[MigL]

8 hours ago, iNow said:

Yet another reason to move to clean energy I suppose. 

Unfortunately, Germany is rushing to decommission its last remaining nuclear reactors,because they are not 'green', and, because of the resulting energy shortfall, moving to classify natural gas ( from the pipelines ) as 'green' ( ? ), to make up the energy shortfall.
IOW, import more Russian gas.

[iNow]

Humans are dumb sometimes often and frequently 

[StringJunky]

7 hours ago, MigL said:

Unfortunately, Germany is rushing to decommission its last remaining nuclear reactors,because they are not 'green', and, because of the resulting energy shortfall, moving to classify natural gas ( from the pipelines ) as 'green' ( ? ), to make up the energy shortfall.
IOW, import more Russian gas.

Unfortunately, it's going green that's causing the gas deficit. Everything has consequences.

[iNow]

It looks like a cyber attack also began 2 or 3 days ago where Russia deployed a massive destructive malware program across Ukrainian government systems focused on executive and emergency responses. It also hit a private IT company that manages sites for the gov. It allows the attackers to edit what is shown across these sites and even completely shutdown these systems from afar. Microsoft cyber security experts flagged it last night 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/microsoft-says-it-observed-destructive-malware-systems-belonging-several-ukraine-2022-01-16/

Edited January 16, 2022 by iNow

[TheVat]

Sounds like one good way to give Russia a kick in the pants is for everyone burning their Gazprom NG to put layers on and turn thermostats down.  And push legislators to subsidize windmills etc. to the max.  And maybe push the next generation of safer nukes. (I feel the spent fuel problem is solvable, but then it may be the tarnished rep of nuke power is past saving).  Reduce the Shirtless One's war chest.  

[iNow]

Those are all fine ideas, but I reckon their impact will be more on conflicts in the 2030s than on those in the coming weeks 

[StringJunky]

6 minutes ago, iNow said:

Those are all fine ideas, but I reckon their impact will be more on conflicts in the 2030s than on those in the coming weeks 

Beats me how they didn't see the gas dependence on  Russia before now. In the short term, we can only assist Ukraine with tech, intelligence and arms, without actually joining in. 

[TheVat]

Yes, I was speaking more broadly and longterm for sure.  And lifestyle changes like wool sweaters and slippers are notoriously difficult to promote, even when it's sold as patriotic.  But businesses could start measures right away to wean off Gazprom gas, and at least make a dent.  How warm does your office need to be at night?  I've heard commercial use of energy has a ton of waste.  

[iNow]

5 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Beats me how they didn't see the gas dependence on  Russia before now.

I’m sure they saw it previously, but they also saw their own political power waning if they did anything to make fuel more expensive in the present. 

Looks to me like Ukraine will be included as a part of / state within Russia by this same time next year. Hopefully I’m wrong 

[StringJunky]

19 minutes ago, iNow said:

I’m sure they saw it previously, but they also saw their own political power waning if they did anything to make fuel more expensive in the present. 

Looks to me like Ukraine will be included as a part of / state within Russia by this same time next year. Hopefully I’m wrong 

I think we are maybe going to have to do some grey warfare ourselves in response. China and Russia are using attrition tactics and gaining territory inch by inch... especially China. We could put 100,000 'volunteers' in Ukrainian uniform and debadge our warplanes/tanks with Ukraine insignia on them.  Russia hasn't got a leg to stand on, since they did that in Crimea with their 'green men'.... and got an uninvolved airliner blown up as well. What's good for the goose...  wishful thinking, I know.

Edited January 16, 2022 by StringJunky

[iNow]

Having just left Afghanistan after 20 years and trillions spent to basically lose a war, the appetite for entering another conflagration in the US is low to nonexistent… even if we’re differently badged or dressed 

I guess keep wishing 

[iNow]

Russia has begun evacuating its people from their Ukrainian embassy