War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[MigL]

And the UK has supplied anti-tank weapons and advisors ( trainers ) to Ukraine.

Russia has always claimed to be the protector of the Slavic peoples. And V Putin has said' Our Russian brothers in the Crimea and Ukraine are being oppressed, we have to save them."
Reminds me of a German leader, 83-4 years ago, who said "Our Germanic speaking brothers in the Sudetenland, the Danzig strip, and Poland, are being oppressed;we must save them."

At least D Trump offered to buy Greenland, not invade.

[iNow]

Britain says Moscow is plotting to Install a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine and US intelligence agrees 

[iNow]

On 1/17/2022 at 6:51 PM, iNow said:

Russia has begun evacuating its people from their Ukrainian embassy 

The US has now ordered all family members of embassy staff in Ukraine to leave the country

[SergUpstart]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

The US has now ordered all family members of embassy staff in Ukraine to leave the country

And Bloomberg also reported that Xi Jinping asked Putin not to attack Ukraine until after the Olympics in Beijing

[iNow]

20 minutes ago, SergUpstart said:

And Bloomberg also reported that Xi Jinping asked Putin not to attack Ukraine until after the Olympics in Beijing

Lol. Wouldn’t surprise me if he instead diverted attention away from the Olympics by invading at the exact same time just to say “screw you, I won’t do what you tell me.”

[SergUpstart]

5 hours ago, SergUpstart said:

And Bloomberg also reported that Xi Jinping asked Putin not to attack Ukraine until after the Olympics in Beijing

The Chinese Foreign Ministry called Bloomberg's message a lie.

[iNow]

Back to the core thread topic, the Washington Post reports that “The Biden administration is threatening to use a novel export control to damage strategic Russian industries, from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to civilian aerospace, if Moscow invades Ukraine.”

Axios further shared: 

“Why it matters: "Such moves would expand the reach of U.S. sanctions beyond financial targets to the deployment of a weapon used only once before — to nearly cripple the Chinese tech giant Huawei."

"The administration may also decide to apply the control more broadly in a way that would potentially deprive Russian citizens of some smartphones, tablets and video game consoles."”

Meanwhile, the Pentagon this weekend presented Biden with plans about “sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern European countries, with the potential to increase that number tenfold if things deteriorate.”

[dimreepr]

9 hours ago, iNow said:

Lol. Wouldn’t surprise me if he instead diverted attention away from the Olympics by invading at the exact same time just to say “screw you, I won’t do what you tell me.”

Lol, you're, killing in the name of...

[iNow]

The US has now put 8,500 troops across Europe in high alert and begun propositioning forces in allied countries. This signals a shift in our deployment footprint and is an acknowledgment that conflict is almost surely coming. 

The thing to watch next is air units like F-18s and related support like AWACS for early warning coming in to surrounding countries like Romania and Poland. If that happens, it’ll be a sign US is flexing and trying to look muscular, and more precisely that we felt the need to so. 

[StringJunky]

12 minutes ago, iNow said:

The US has now put 8,500 troops across Europe in high alert and begun propositioning forces in allied countries. This signals a shift in our deployment footprint and is an acknowledgment that conflict is almost surely coming. 

The thing to watch next is air units like F-18s and related support like AWACS for early warning coming in to surrounding countries like Romania and Poland. If that happens, it’ll be a sign US is flexing and trying to look muscular, and more precisely that we felt the need to so. 

If we get tied up with Russia, I won't be surprised to see China pull some sort of stunt to gain more territory or other advantage.

[iNow]

38 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

If we get tied up with Russia, I won't be surprised to see China pull some sort of stunt to gain more territory or other advantage.

Like moving into Taiwan or Hong Kong while we’re distracted, perhaps? 

I can see that, but feel they’re not that tone deaf and wouldn’t do that the same time global media is covering them nonstop with the Olympics. 

[StringJunky]

57 minutes ago, iNow said:

Like moving into Taiwan or Hong Kong while we’re distracted, perhaps? 

I can see that, but feel they’re not that tone deaf and wouldn’t do that the same time global media is covering them nonstop with the Olympics. 

True, didn't consider that.

[iNow]

US has agreed to supplement fuel supply to Europe in what seems likely to be an attempt by the US to blunt Putins threats to cutoff Russian fuel sources to Europe if they respond to his Ukraine invasion. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by iNow

[geordief]

7 minutes ago, iNow said:

US has agreed to supplement fuel supply to Europe in what seems likely to be an attempt by the US to blunt Putins threats to cutoff Russian fuel sources to Europe if they respond to his Ukraine invasion. 

Can it do that effectively?

Last I heard was that Germany imported 40% of it's natural gas from Putinistan.

Can it  overcome this dependency?

Can the USA  be of any use?

 

This problem  has been in the pipeline for years now .Is there a plan B?

Edited January 26, 2022 by geordief

[iNow]

2 minutes ago, geordief said:

Can it  overcome this dependency?

No, it just softens the blow a tiny bit… like getting kicked in the nuts still hurts even when wearing a cup, but the cup does help… to MAYBE make Europe slightly less resistant to engaging or sanctioning. 

5 minutes ago, geordief said:

This problem  has been in the pipeline for years now

No pun intended, eh Nord Stream  

[geordief]

1 minute ago, iNow said:

No, it just softens the blow a tiny bit… like getting kicked in the nuts still hurts even when wearing a cup, but the cup does help… to MAYBE make Europe slightly less resistant to engaging or sanctioning. 

Heard them saying on CNN that Germany is now the weakest link but that it would probably  do the right thing  if push came to shove.

 

[StringJunky]

4 hours ago, geordief said:

Heard them saying on CNN that Germany is now the weakest link but that it would probably  do the right thing  if push came to shove.

 

Which is not surprising, the spectre of WW2 still haunts them, and their subsequent national MO towards military conflict in the 21st century. They are treading carefully. Also, they are comprised of a coalition government, which will make them appear more collectively hesitant due to inter-party disagreements.... it's another layer to deal with.

Edited January 26, 2022 by StringJunky
added

[SergUpstart]

Ramzan Kadyrov said that if he were in Putin's place, he would have seized Ukraine long ago.

Russian billionaires lost $28 billion due to the situation around Ukraine

[Alex_Krycek]

Excellent article here on the "Putin Doctrine".

Explains Putin's motivations perfectly, and why this latest tempest may be more than mere saber rattling.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-01-27/putin-doctrine

[iNow]

US is sending javelin anti-tank missiles into Ukraine. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by iNow

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

US is sending javelin anti-tank missiles into Ukraine. 

Do you think reciprocal cyber disruption will play a significant part in this? I read the US have quite a potent malware  that severely disputed one of the Chinese telecoms iirc.

[TheVat]

47 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Do you think reciprocal cyber disruption will play a significant part in this? I read the US have quite a potent malware  that severely disputed one of the Chinese telecoms iirc.

Yes, very likely.  Joe was outlining a stepped-up cyberwar capacity last spring, which was to include clandestine "warning shot" intrusions onto Russian networks.  The thinking IIRC was that economic sanctions have limited power, so we needed a bigger stick (as well as developing better shields) if Putin escalated.  At that time, Biden was concerned that these kinds of cyber attacks not cross certain lines.  Meaning, I think, how to inflict pain on bad actors without, say, shutting down hospitals or turning traffic lights all green all day.

I remember a couple/three years ago, our cyberwar division made incursions into the Russian power grid, as a warning to Putin.  Given the possible consequences for civilians during a Russian winter, I wonder if Biden might be more reluctant to escalate that.  

[iNow]

9 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Yes, very likely. 

My take is slightly different. I think we have significant capabilities here, but also that we don't want to use this "smaller" Ukraine incursion to show the various tricks we have up our sleeves... that we'll reserve certain cyber capabilities for "bigger" issues. But predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Meanwhile, KJU in North Korea has done six missile tests just this month — equal to all of 2021 — and has called on NK to prepare for “long-term confrontation.”

Good times. 

[StringJunky]

51 minutes ago, iNow said:

My take is slightly different. I think we have significant capabilities here, but also that we don't want to use this "smaller" Ukraine incursion to show the various tricks we have up our sleeves... that we'll reserve certain cyber capabilities for "bigger" issues. But predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Meanwhile, KJU in North Korea has done six missile tests just this month — equal to all of 2021 — and has called on NK to prepare for “long-term confrontation.”

Good times. 

Autocrats don't like being ignored, they get lonely. Putin's done it, KJU's doing it, all we need is Xi to feel left out, although he's got the Olympics.

[iNow]

Well, speaking of China and Taiwan:

https://www.npr.org/2022/01/28/1076246311/chinas-ambassador-to-the-u-s-warns-of-military-conflict-over-taiwan

Quote

China's ambassador to the United States issued a warning Thursday: The U.S. could face "military conflict" with China over the future status of Taiwan.

In his first one-on-one interview since assuming his post in Washington, D.C., last July, Qin Gang accused Taiwan of "walking down the road toward independence," and added, "If the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States, keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States, the two big countries, in a military conflict."

It was an unusually direct statement about the U.S. and Taiwan. Observers say China more commonly speaks in more general terms, such as saying that the U.S. is "playing with fire."