War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[Alex_Krycek]

10 minutes ago, Prometheus said:

 

I wonder if Germany will reconsider their gas hungry energy policy in the face of this crisis. 

Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval over Russian recognition of Ukraine ‘republics’Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspends gas pipeline over ‘grave breach’ of international law

[SergUpstart]

52 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

I believe the Russian forces stationed in Belarus, ominously north of Kiev, are there to merely intimidate Ukraine and NATO into not interfering while this annexation takes place.  They are the "backup" in case Ukraine or NATO tries to stop the seizure of this eastern territory; they're not there with the primary goal of invading the entire country.

Moreover, it is impossible to advance from Belarus to Ukraine. There are impassable Polesie marshes between Ukraine and Belarus. This is the so-called Pripyat problem. Bonaparte and Hitler had to choose how to attack Moscow, north or south of the Pripyat marshes. In 1941, Army Group Center, which had broken out ahead, could not fear for its right flank. since it was covered by swamps.

Edited February 22, 2022 by SergUpstart

[Prometheus]

11 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval over Russian recognition of Ukraine ‘republics’Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspends gas pipeline over ‘grave breach’ of international law

Yeah i saw that - blood from stone comes to mind. I was thinking of their medium-term energy plans - they've bet big on gas while transitioning to a lower carbon economy.

[studiot]

1 hour ago, Alex_Krycek said:

I've been following this conflict for several months now, before it became a headline crisis.  While I have believed from the beginning that a real conflict was probably going to materialize, I also do not believe that seizing the entirety of Ukraine is Putin's current goal. 

Excellently thought out and presented post. +1

I see from the map that Russia has now secured its land route (corridor) to the Crimea.

[iNow]

2 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

I also do not believe that seizing the entirety of Ukraine is Putin's current goal. 

The conflict with Ukraine looks like classic incrementalism - or "salami tactics", taking territory slice by slice.  Now that these two separatist areas (Luhansk and Donetsk) have been annexed, I think we will see no further advances by Russian forces at this time. 

I tend to agree, and the "at this time" phrase at the end there being the operative term. This won't stop with Ukraine. He's just boiling the frog slowly. He wants to reconstitute the USSR, or at least something extremely similar.

On 2/3/2022 at 9:56 AM, mistermack said:

Like somebody said earlier, I think Putin is just holding back for the winter olympics, to be nice to China.

This comment from about 3 weeks ago seems to have been prescient and correct. Within 24 hours of the closing ceremonies, Putin made his move

[dimreepr]

37 minutes ago, iNow said:

This comment from about 3 weeks ago seems to have been prescient and correct. Within 24 hours of the closing ceremonies, Putin made his move

If your best mate is the newest superpower, you're gonna want to stand behind them, while flipping the bird.

 

[TheVat]

12 hours ago, zapatos said:

I'm not sure that sanctioning Russia now instead of later is going to have the effect you think it will.

I don't recall saying what particular effect it would have.  Indeed, I have no idea if sanctions can work with Putin.  Sanctions were brought, after Crimean annexation, in 2014, to zero effect.  I speculate that sanctions would have to be massive and international and drastic enough to chop off Russian trade, shut down petro-revenues, severely crimp Vlads oligarch pals, devalue the ruble...so that depends on a lot of countries signing on and taking some pain.

Looking down thread, I see some think Putin will settle for Donetsk and Lugansk as client states.  Guess we'll find out.  

3 hours ago, SergUpstart said:

Moreover, it is impossible to advance from Belarus to Ukraine. There are impassable Polesie marshes between Ukraine and Belarus. This is the so-called Pripyat problem. Bonaparte and Hitler had to choose how to attack Moscow, north or south of the Pripyat marshes. In 1941, Army Group Center, which had broken out ahead, could not fear for its right flank. since it was covered by swamps.

Is it really all boggy?  There's a lot of border up there.  I am skeptical of your usage "impossible."

[mistermack]

On a slightly different note, does anybody think that this would be happening if Donald Trump was still president? I don't think it would. Not because he's got any kind of good qualities. But the reverse. 

If you were Putin, you would think twice about it, with a loony like Trump loose in the White House. It would be impossible to predict what he would do. Especially since he would change his mind daily, depending on who was bending his ear.

Putin might also be hoping to affect US politics by doing this, as a second prize. Biden is going to be easy to attack on foreign policy after this, however it turns out. Putin might be putting Trump back into the White House as we speak.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, TheVat said:

I am skeptical of your usage "impossible."

Same here, especially given how much more capable tanks (and helicopters and airplanes, etc.) are today vs during the times of Napoleon. 

1 hour ago, mistermack said:

On a slightly different note, does anybody think that this would be happening if Donald Trump was still president? I don't think it would.

Nah, Trump would be sending US troops to help Putin and would tell Ukraine they will get nothing and like it bc they refused to launch a false investigation into Biden's son. 

[swansont]

1 hour ago, mistermack said:

On a slightly different note, does anybody think that this would be happening if Donald Trump was still president? I don't think it would. Not because he's got any kind of good qualities. But the reverse. 

If you were Putin, you would think twice about it, with a loony like Trump loose in the White House. It would be impossible to predict what he would do. Especially since he would change his mind daily, depending on who was bending his ear.

Putin might also be hoping to affect US politics by doing this, as a second prize. Biden is going to be easy to attack on foreign policy after this, however it turns out. Putin might be putting Trump back into the White House as we speak.

This is bull.

Trump was the one that got support for the Ukraine removed from the GOP platform in 2016 and Trump did nothing but suck up to Putin at every opportunity during his presidency. Support for Putin would be one thing that would be entirely predictable.

The one thing that would have been out of Trump's control would be the reaction of the US, which might have forced him into acting, and possibly making Trump look weak. It's entirely possible Putin waited for Trump to be out of power so that the GOP could attack Biden regardless of his response; whatever happened would be "wrong" (their stance for virtually everything)

 

[SergUpstart]

4 hours ago, studiot said:

I see from the map that Russia has now secured its land route (corridor) to the Crimea.

Russia has not reached the Crimea here.

And there remains the possibility of dragging Russia into a big war if Ukraine and Moldova organize a joint blockade of Tiraspol. Then Russia will have to capture at least the Odessa region either by landing from the sea, or through an offensive through Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Heson.

[geordief]

4 minutes ago, iNow said:

 

Nah, Trump would be sending US troops to help Putin and would tell Ukraine they will get nothing and like it bc they refused to launch a false investigation into Biden's son. 

A bit of an exaggeration 

He would just be negotiating  with Russia over  upgrading  the embassies and coordinating  military and intelligence cooperation

He might even send his political opponents on assignments in NoroRussia so as to put manners on them

 

[iNow]

Well, these comments clearly didn't age well: 

On 12/5/2021 at 4:20 PM, Arikel88 said:

Ukraine is not going to happen it's all A ruse <...> it is all television talking.

 

On 2/15/2022 at 2:31 AM, SergUpstart said:

Russian troops began to return to their permanent locations after the maneuvers.

Maria Zakharova: February 15 will go down in history as the day of the failure of Western propaganda of the war

 

2 minutes ago, geordief said:

A bit of an exaggeration 

Of course. I was making a point, but it's directionally correct for sure. Either way, we can speculate anything we want. He's not president right now and it doesn't matter.

[zapatos]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

I don't recall saying what particular effect it would have.  Indeed, I have no idea if sanctions can work with Putin.  Sanctions were brought, after Crimean annexation, in 2014, to zero effect.  I speculate that sanctions would have to be massive and international and drastic enough to chop off Russian trade, shut down petro-revenues, severely crimp Vlads oligarch pals, devalue the ruble...so that depends on a lot of countries signing on and taking some pain.

So why do you want the sanctions to be done immediately if not for some particular benefit?

[TheVat]

12 minutes ago, zapatos said:

So why do you want the sanctions to be done immediately if not for some particular benefit?

On the theory that a taste of unpleasant medicine now means we don't have to maintain a longterm prescription and all the expense that involves for everyone.  Debatable, yes, and this is based only on my sense that Putin doesn't take sanctions talk seriously.   It seems to me his personality is that type that needs prompt and substantial pain (and looking bad at home) to gain his attention.  

YMMV.

[Sensei]

If anyone has objections about Trump being Putin's sockpuppet, they should see his reaction to Russia's criminal activities:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/world/europe/trump-putin-russia-ukraine.html

"Former President Donald J. Trump called Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine “genius” and called President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia “very savvy” for describing the troops aligned on the Ukrainian border as peacekeepers."

Mr. Trump said: “That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re going to keep peace, all right. No, but think of it. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy.”

Edited February 23, 2022 by Sensei

[Alex_Krycek]

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

If anyone has objections about Trump being Putin's sockpuppet, they should see his reaction to Russia's criminal activities:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/world/europe/trump-putin-russia-ukraine.html

"Former President Donald J. Trump called Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine “genius” and called President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia “very savvy” for describing the troops aligned on the Ukrainian border as peacekeepers."

Mr. Trump said: “That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re going to keep peace, all right. No, but think of it. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy.”

Trump must be sizing up these new separatist republics as possible hotel markets.

[iNow]

If I may, we had a good run for about 5 years where Trump infected every political thread ever created. Perhaps we can enjoy this brief hiatus until primary season begins later this year when he re-enters public discussion during his fights with new enemies, both invented and real. 

For now, Biden is president of the US amd this thread was created to discuss the US response. Let’s please remain focused there. 

Within that US response, the GOP is fracturing over this between legacy republicans who want a strong US international presence and QAnon republicans who want the US to be walled off island disconnected from the modern world. That will force some interesting alliances with Democrats in the US Senate. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by iNow

[Sensei]

@iNow I think this is still on topic of the thread. Some right-wing US politicians are still infected by D.T. and will try to sabotage anything the current POTUS will try to do.. Thus, although D.T. is not the current official US leader, he still can influence U.S. politicians from the deep state..

So, better listen carefully what he has to say to his followers..

Edited February 23, 2022 by Sensei

[iNow]

4 hours ago, Sensei said:

I think this is still on topic of the thread.

And that's fine, but I don't, and I'm the OP. Cheers, mate

[TheVat]

This was posted by the US Embassy in Kyiv.  An amusing rejoinder to Putin's statement that Ukraine had never been a country.

 

 

[Sensei]

13 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Trump must be sizing up these new separatist republics as possible hotel markets.

D.T. plays Monopoly Railroad Tycoon ..

V.P. plays C&C..

I play Populous..

(2k years ago I reversed the rules of the game and the one who kills less wins )

 

 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Sensei

[mistermack]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

This was posted by the US Embassy in Kyiv.  An amusing rejoinder to Putin's statement that Ukraine had never been a country.

Ironic, since they are referring to an era when countries were established by war and conquest.

[geordief]

1 hour ago, mistermack said:

Ironic, since they are referring to an era when countries were established by war and conquest.

Unlike today?

[mistermack]

Modern Ukraine was created peacefully in 1991 by the Russian leadership. On it's creation, it declared itself a neutral state. Since the current leadership has repeatedly stated it's desire to join a military alliance whose only reason for existence is to fight Russia, I can see why the Russians should take exception to it. 

Ukraine was part of the empire of the Russian Czars for hundreds of years, and part of the USSR for about seventy years. It's been a country for just thirty years. Since they are keen to abandon their agreed neutrality, I don't blame Putin for kicking off.