War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[Sensei]

13 hours ago, mistermack said:

Modern Ukraine was created peacefully in 1991 by the Russian leadership. On it's creation, it declared itself a neutral state. Since the current leadership has repeatedly stated it's desire to join a military alliance whose only reason for existence is to fight Russia, I can see why the Russians should take exception to it. 

Lies..

13 hours ago, mistermack said:

Ukraine was part of the empire of the Russian Czars for hundreds of years, and part of the USSR for about seventy years. It's been a country for just thirty years. Since they are keen to abandon their agreed neutrality, I don't blame Putin for kicking off. 

More lies..

 

Where are Hitler's children? Where are the children of Goebbels? Caligula? Nero's? Where are the children of [...].. ? Putin's daughters will be RAPED and MURDERED.... and their children too... No one in his family in the XXII century will survive due to his current actions..

The death of an entire branch of the family is inevitable due to his criminal activities here and now and being a mass murderer....

Edited February 24, 2022 by Sensei

[geordief]

5 hours ago, Sensei said:

Lies..

More lies..

 

Where are Hitler's children? Where are the children of Goebbels? Caligula? Nero's? Where are the children of [...].. ? Putin's daughters will be RAPED and MURDERED.... and their children too... No one in his family in the XXII century will survive due to his current actions..

The death of an entire branch of the family is inevitable due to his criminal activities here and now and being a mass murderer....

We should not get down into the gutter with Putin and wish ill of his family.

I think those of Putin's ilk   turn upon those they consider should  be on their side

 

Maybe some pity for the people of Russia.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by geordief

[Alex_Krycek]

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defence minister: (24/02/22)

"There are thrusts taking place. They are quite close to the city of Kherson now. The situation is really critical there. They are also trying to surround Kharkiv. It seems like Kharkiv at the moment is the main target. They also try to get to Kyiv using one battlefield group. The group went from Belarus and it was stopped. There’s quite a bad road [to Kyiv]. It was strange that they sent such a small group on such a road. Clearly it was miscalculation on their side for the moment. There were some Russian losses and on our side. Ukrainian armed forces are fighting quite seriously. There is no panic. There are attempts to resist and in many directions it’s working out."

-------

A miscalculation, or a diversion to keep Ukrainian forces from concentrating in the East?  Surely if Russia planned to take Kiev, they would do so.  There would be no "miscalculation".

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Alex_Krycek

[geordief]

6 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defence minister: (24/02/22)

"There are thrusts taking place. They are quite close to the city of Kherson now. The situation is really critical there. They are also trying to surround Kharkiv. It seems like Kharkiv at the moment is the main target. They also try to get to Kyiv using one battlefield group. The group went from Belarus and it was stopped. There’s quite a bad road [to Kyiv]. It was strange that they sent such a small group on such a road. Clearly it was miscalculation on their side for the moment. There were some Russian losses and on our side. Ukrainian armed forces are fighting quite seriously. There is no panic. There are attempts to resist and in many directions it’s working out."

-------

A miscalculation, or a diversion to keep Ukrainian forces from concentrating in the south?  Surely if Russia planned to take Kiev, they would do so.  There would be no "miscalculation".

 

Is it too early to begin to wonder who the Russians will try to get to collaborate  with them the areas they take?

I remember back in 68  when one of my classmates was defending the invasion of Czechoslovakia.(don't recall his arguments)

[SergUpstart]

20 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

A miscalculation, or a diversion to keep Ukrainian forces from concentrating in the East?  Surely if Russia planned to take Kiev, they would do so.  There would be no "miscalculation".

They are going to Odessa. Odessa is perhaps a more important strategic goal than Kiev.

[Alex_Krycek]

8 minutes ago, geordief said:

Is it too early to begin to wonder who the Russians will try to get to collaborate  with them the areas they take?

I remember back in 68  when one of my classmates was defending the invasion of Czechoslovakia.(don't recall his arguments)

My theory: any areas the Russians attempt to permanently "liberate" will have already been judged to have a population sufficiently in favor of a Russian presence.  They will expand Luhansk and Dontesk only so far as these territories can be held indefinitely.  

Or they'll steamroll the entire country and make it a puppet regime for the next 100 years; that's another possibility.

[dimreepr]

All we know for sure is, Putin's gone full on Trump and we're in for a bumpy ride...

[Alex_Krycek]

3 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

All we know for sure is, Putin's gone full on Trump and we're in for a bumpy ride...

More like "full on George W. Bush".

[dimreepr]

4 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

More like "full on George W. Bush".

Mr Bush was just an aperitif... 

He was subject to satire, not a source of it... 😉

[iNow]

Map from a Belarusian journalist of already confirmed strikes from Russia against Ukraine. This is no small "incursion." Invasion seems more apropos 

 

[geordief]

1 hour ago, Alex_Krycek said:

My theory: any areas the Russians attempt to permanently "liberate" will have already been judged to have a population sufficiently in favor of a Russian presence.  They will expand Luhansk and Dontesk only so far as these territories can be held indefinitely.  

Or they'll steamroll the entire country and make it a puppet regime for the next 100 years; that's another possibility.

The Russians and the Germans in recent history  have bulldozed their neighbours in this way

Both have lived to regret their  short term gains

The populations they  trampled over did not forget and to this day Germany is vulnerable to rebukes  from the likes of Greece when they need an easy scapegoat

 

Russia is storing up resentment  and scorn over the coming generations, especially as it does not have the wherewithal to have an uncontested empire like the British  once did

 

It feels to me that the people around Putin are not free to speak their minds even if they realize that Russia is going down the wrong path ( "wrong" in the sense of "against its own  interests") 

Edited February 24, 2022 by geordief

[iNow]

4 minutes ago, geordief said:

It feels to me that the people around Putin are not free to speak their minds even if they realize that Russia is going down the wrong)in the sense of against its own path. interests)

Yes. He's an autocrat and he has near total control of everything that happens in his country. 

[TheVat]

Busy morning, finally looked at news feeds.  I think "holy shit" would be my first reaction.  @geordief nails it - Putin has silenced more rational advisors and is in full autocrat mode.  And @Alex_Krycek second guess, "or they'll steamroll...make puppet regime," does look more plausible now.  

And, just in case anyone's getting too comfy, there's this development:

(From NYT)  

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s interior ministry announced Thursday that Russian troops had pushed from Belarus, north of Ukraine, into the highly radioactive Chernobyl exclusion zone, touching off a battle that risked damaging the cement-encased nuclear reactor that melted down in 1986.

“National Guard troops responsible for protecting the storage unit for dangerous radioactive waste are putting up fierce resistance,” said Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to the interior minister. Should an artillery shell hit the storage unit, Mr. Herashchenko said, “radioactive dust could cover the territory of Ukraine, Belarus and the countries of the European Union.”

 

[iNow]

59 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Should an artillery shell hit the storage unit, Mr. Herashchenko said, “radioactive dust could cover the territory of Ukraine, Belarus and the countries of the European Union.”

Madman strategy. From wiki:

In his 1962 book, Thinking About the Unthinkable, futurist Herman Kahn argued that to "look a little crazy" might be an effective way to induce an adversary to stand down.

[Moontanman]

Well it looks like excrement has made contact with the rotating air movement device, I live near a first strike zone so I guess I will not feel it... I might live long enough to see the flash, if the missiles are targeted accurately.   

Edited February 24, 2022 by Moontanman

[iNow]

Again from Axios:

The European Union, Australia, Japan, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom are joining the U.S. with similar actions as a "force multiplier," according to the White House.

* Russia's largest financial institution will be cut off from the U.S. financial system, reports Axios' Zachary Basu and Oriana Gonzalez.

* "Full-blocking" sanctions will be imposed on four additional Russian banks.

* New debt restrictions will be imposed on 13 Russian state-owned enterprises and entities that together hold nearly $1.4 trillion in assets.

* The U.S. will impose sweeping export controls on technologies critical to the Russian defense sector and broader economy.

* Seven Russian elites and their family members who hold some of the highest positions of power in the country will also be sanctioned.

[J.C.MacSwell]

On 2/22/2022 at 10:47 PM, Sensei said:

"Former President Donald J. Trump called Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine “genius” and called President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia “very savvy” for describing the troops aligned on the Ukrainian border as peacekeepers."

Mr. Trump said: “That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re going to keep peace, all right. No, but think of it. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy.”

Not as savvy as you though, Donald. It probably took you no more than a couple of minutes to realize "peace keeping" wasn't the plan at all.

Edited February 24, 2022 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

The Pentagon has ordered 7,000 more US troops into Europe, effectively doubling what was sent a few weeks ago.

[Sensei]

Russian plane destroyed. It starts at 40, so wait patiently:

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Sensei

[Alex_Krycek]

13 hours ago, iNow said:

Madman strategy. From wiki:

In his 1962 book, Thinking About the Unthinkable, futurist Herman Kahn argued that to "look a little crazy" might be an effective way to induce an adversary to stand down.

"Madman Strategy" - the same moniker used to describe Trump when he was supposedly playing 5-D Backgammon of whatever.  The world gives people like this too much credit.

Putin is an obsolete remnant of an obsolete system, a country calcified with corruption, unable to rejuvenate itself organically due to a lack of democratic processes.  It's a country in slow decay whose only avenue for growth is to reach out for the unattainable pipe dreams of past imperial glory.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Alex_Krycek

[koti]

On 2/24/2022 at 9:25 AM, Sensei said:

Putin's daughters will be RAPED and MURDERED.... and their children too...

Are you high or did you forget to take your pills?

[J.C.MacSwell]

Hopefully protests in Russia can gather some momentum.

It would be nice if our free World leaders could show a fraction of their courage and enough solidarity to put truly significant sanctions in place.

Interesting perspective from former long time Chess World Champion who has opposed Putin repeatedly:

A vocal critic of the Russian leadership is Garry Kasparov, the chess grandmaster who ranked world number one repeatedly for 20 years before turning his attention to politics. He’s telling leaders to “help Ukraine fight against the monster you helped create.”

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by J.C.MacSwell

[Sensei]

50 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

It would be nice if our free World leaders could show a fraction of their courage and enough solidarity to put truly significant sanctions in place.

Sanctions? Sanctions don't work. Did they work on North Korea? Did they work on Iran? Did they work on Japan? (Japan was in the worst situation - no natural resources - the result was an attack on the US).

After just one day of the attack, Russia lost 0.5% of all forces involved (~1000 soldiers killed).

Edited February 25, 2022 by Sensei

[J.C.MacSwell]

30 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Sanctions? Sanctions don't work. Did they work on North Korea? Did they work on Iran? Did they work on Japan? (Japan was in the worst situation - no natural resources - the result was an attack on the US).

After just one day of the attack, Russia lost 0.5% of all forces involved (~1000 soldiers killed).

To paraphrase W. Churchill "We have not yet begun to sanction!"

Sanctions that aren't cherry picked to avoid any pain to the countries administering them might have a better chance of getting results.

The Germans, just as an example, have to be willing to turn the thermostats down and put on sweaters, and other countries need to be willing to do the equivalent.

[Sensei]

@J.C.MacSwell There are three things VP is afraid of: safety of family, SWIFT and low price of oil & gas.

Blockade of transportation between EU and Russia. Entire.

Germany, for instance, should immediately restart its nuclear reactors to reduce gas consumption..

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-much-does-germany-need-russian-gas-2022-01-20/

"Gas burning accounted for 15.3% of German electricity generation last year, according to BDEW."

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Sensei