War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[geordief]

50 minutes ago, Sensei said:

@J.C.MacSwell There are three things VP is afraid of: safety of family, SWIFT and low price of oil & gas.

Blockade of transportation between EU and Russia. Entire.

Germany, for instance, should immediately restart its nuclear reactors to reduce gas consumption..

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-much-does-germany-need-russian-gas-2022-01-20/

"Gas burning accounted for 15.3% of German electricity generation last year, according to BDEW."

 

 

Good points but you should apologise for your outburst earlier.Your language and intent was deplorable.

[iNow]

7 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Putin is an obsolete remnant of an obsolete system, a country calcified with corruption, unable to rejuvenate itself organically due to a lack of democratic processes.

I accept your point that the country is in decline given how much of the economy is contingent on oil and how much corruption there is (it's basically a mob family writ large into a country where all kickbacks go up to the leader), but as it remains one of the worlds major superpowers with an impressive military, nuclear stockpile, and more than capable cyber army, and as he is single handedly in charge of all of it with zero checks on his power like the Man in the High Castle, I find it a bit hyperbolic to refer to him as "an obsolete remnant of an obsolete system." It's not like Putin is Mugabe in Zimbabwe or something. 

7 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

"Madman Strategy" - the same moniker used to describe Trump when he was supposedly playing 5-D Backgammon of whatever.  The world gives people like this too much credit.

I tend to agree, but as he's implicitly threatening nuclear strike, and took control of Chernobyl as one of the first things done during the invasion within 24 hours presumably so he could threaten to blow off the concrete bubble that's been built to contain the radioactivity, it's not unreasonable to mention how this may be part of what's preventing Biden and team from putting sanctions DIRECTLY on Putin himself just yet. They're keeping their powder dry where they can, but they're also likely trying not to back him into the type of corner that would result in such "mad" behavior with nukes. Putin isn't a weakling like Trump, but Trump's also not the subject of this thread. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by iNow

[dimreepr]

7 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

"Madman Strategy" - the same moniker used to describe Trump when he was supposedly playing 5-D Backgammon of whatever.  The world gives people like this too much credit.

Putin is an obsolete remnant of an obsolete system, a country calcified with corruption, unable to rejuvenate itself organically due to a lack of democratic processes.  It's a country in slow decay whose only avenue for growth is to reach out for the unattainable pipe dreams of past imperial glory.

Putin might be a mad man, but his rings grow at the same rate...

[TheVat]

4 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

To paraphrase W. Churchill "We have not yet begun to sanction!"

Sanctions that aren't cherry picked to avoid any pain to the countries administering them might have a better chance of getting results.

The Germans, just as an example, have to be willing to turn the thermostats down and put on sweaters, and other countries need to be willing to do the equivalent.

Smiled, reading that last - I had posted that same about sweaters and thermostats at another website a few days ago.  I really wonder what Putin et al have in mind as picking up the economic slack when western markets turn their backs on them.  Do they think China will buy coal from their newly acquired coal country?  Or Ukraine grain?

The history of Donetsk and coal is interesting.  Apparently the Czar imported Welshmen, including a master metallurgist named Hughes, to start up a steel industry and collieries there, and Donetsk was originally called Yuzovka in honor of Hughes. 

Some background here...

 https://www.juancole.com/2022/02/welshman-founded-disaster.html

Edited February 25, 2022 by TheVat
Fix

[geordief]

When it comes to sanctions,will Putin's game be to  wait for Biden's term to end and then make apparent concessions in the hope of getting Trump back in office.

 

I understand he has the coffers to tide Russia over for a few years .

[mistermack]

People extol NATO membership as a guarantee of security, but you have to remember that it also makes you a legitimate target. 

Join NATO and you will immediately have Russian, and possibly Chinese nuclear weapons pointing at you, in the event of just one NATO country picking a fight. 

I live nine miles from the GCHQ headquarters in the UK ( Government Communications HQ ). I'm not a great fan of NATO, they might well get me killed one day along with my family. That's the hidden benefit of NATO membership. 

[Alex_Krycek]

10 hours ago, iNow said:

I accept your point that the country is in decline given how much of the economy is contingent on oil and how much corruption there is (it's basically a mob family writ large into a country where all kickbacks go up to the leader), but as it remains one of the worlds major superpowers with an impressive military, nuclear stockpile, and more than capable cyber army, and as he is single handedly in charge of all of it with zero checks on his power like the Man in the High Castle, I find it a bit hyperbolic to refer to him as "an obsolete remnant of an obsolete system." It's not like Putin is Mugabe in Zimbabwe or something. 

I tend to agree, but as he's implicitly threatening nuclear strike, and took control of Chernobyl as one of the first things done during the invasion within 24 hours presumably so he could threaten to blow off the concrete bubble that's been built to contain the radioactivity, it's not unreasonable to mention how this may be part of what's preventing Biden and team from putting sanctions DIRECTLY on Putin himself just yet. They're keeping their powder dry where they can, but they're also likely trying not to back him into the type of corner that would result in such "mad" behavior with nukes. Putin isn't a weakling like Trump, but Trump's also not the subject of this thread. 

Maddow articulates here how I see Russia.  100% nails it.

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Alex_Krycek

[iNow]

I’ll try to watch it later. Can you provide an executive summary?

And to be clear, I’m no fan of these tactics nor a huge advocate for the madman explanation. Just sharing what I see as the most plausible explanations given currently available intel 

[Alex_Krycek]

7 hours ago, iNow said:

I’ll try to watch it later. Can you provide an executive summary?

And to be clear, I’m no fan of these tactics nor a huge advocate for the madman explanation. Just sharing what I see as the most plausible explanations given currently available intel 

Summary:  Putin is a failed leader presiding over a dysfunctional society.  The rising success of former Soviet countries such as Estonia and Ukraine underscore Russia's shortcomings and would eventually lead to internal change.  Thus, Russia's neighbors must be subjugated.  

 

[koti]

I don’t think Putin is either mad nor is using the madman strategy, he’s doing what he has been preparing for years - realizing his dream of an imperial Russia. He’s probably the richest man on the planet, he has absolute power in Russia, he’s turning 70 years old this year, he knows his time is running out and he’s playing war games which are the only „fun” he’s got left to do which he hasn’t done yet. The scary part is that his methods of destabilizing countries and regions are very effective, in the 24 hours after his initial attack on Ukraine thousands of trolls and bots on FB and Twitter started spreading missinformation that petrol and gas is going to run out in Poland. Result - all gas stations had long lines, people started to hord petrol and gas to a point in which stations started to raise prices and the government had to intervene  yesterday - a few thousand accounts on social media is all it takes. Fun fact, this has been happening for years as Putin carefuly prepared by slowly destabilizing the eastern europe region through social media. My summary is: Putin will take Ukraine and Biden and the EU will let him to avoid WWIII. EU and NATO will grow stronger because of this war.

[koti]

On 2/25/2022 at 1:28 PM, geordief said:

 

Good points but you should apologise for your outburst earlier.Your language and intent was deplorable.

When a right wing incel sitting at home in a basement drooling in his underwear talks about raping and murdering women, hell breaks loose (and rightly so) But when the same happens coming from a long time forum contributor, everyone turns their heads away. The hypocrisy and double standards have really hit stratosphere here.

[dimreepr]

10 hours ago, iNow said:

And to be clear, I’m no fan of these tactics nor a huge advocate for the madman explanation.

Now that it's no longer a game and Putin's gone all in, his mental state is irrelevant... 

[iNow]

4 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Summary:  Putin is a failed leader presiding over a dysfunctional society.  The rising success of former Soviet countries such as Estonia and Ukraine underscore Russia's shortcomings and would eventually lead to internal change.  Thus, Russia's neighbors must be subjugated.  

 

I agree with many / most of these points, but struggle with the first. When viewed in context of the wellbeing of his people, then sure. Failed leader seems to fit. When viewed in context of his level of control and authority and power, he’s anything but failed. He went from a kid born to a factory worker and a crewman on a sub whose previous siblings died from diphtheria in a children's home to the richest man on the planet capable of seizing other countries and preventing the US from stopping him. It all depends on how one defines failure and success. 

3 hours ago, koti said:

I don’t think Putin is either mad nor is using the madman strategy, he’s doing what he has been preparing for years - realizing his dream of an imperial Russia. <…> Fun fact, this has been happening for years as Putin carefuly prepared by slowly destabilizing the eastern europe region through social media. My summary is: Putin will take Ukraine and Biden and the EU will let him to avoid WWIII. EU and NATO will grow stronger because of this war.

Agreed. Same here. Stay safe over there, sir. 

[Sensei]

6 hours ago, koti said:

When a right wing incel sitting at home in a basement drooling in his underwear talks about raping and murdering women, hell breaks loose (and rightly so) But when the same happens coming from a long time forum contributor, everyone turns their heads away. The hypocrisy and double standards have really hit stratosphere here.

koti, I am astonished by the level of misinformation that you introduced by yourself into this thread to provoke and blacken. I gave examples from history what happened to other similar dictators and their families, who were responsible for mass murdering people..

Probably, if I told you what the future held for you, you would claim I was threatening you.. Wouldn't you?

ps. Didn't you say to stop writing to you? You broke your own rule..

 

[koti]

4 hours ago, Sensei said:

koti, I am astonished by the level of misinformation that you introduced by yourself into this thread to provoke and blacken. I gave examples from history what happened to other similar dictators and their families, who were responsible for mass murdering people..

Probably, if I told you what the future held for you, you would claim I was threatening you.. Wouldn't you?

ps. Didn't you say to stop writing to you? You broke your own rule..

 

You’re treading on thin ice creep. Be careful, one wrong step and you can fall.

 

 

 

 

 

5 hours ago, iNow said:

Agreed. Same here. Stay safe over there, sir. 

Thank you.

[J.C.MacSwell]

24 minutes ago, iNow said:

I agree with many / most of these points, but struggle with the first. When viewed in context of the wellbeing of his people, then sure. Failed leader seems to fit. When viewed in context of his level of control and authority and power, he’s anything but failed. He went from a kid born to a factory worker and a crewman on a sub whose previous siblings died from diphtheria in a children's home to the richest man on the planet capable of seizing other countries and preventing the US from stopping him. It all depends on how one defines failure and success. 

 

My working definition is close to that one, and very far from the latter.

[geordief]

12 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Paweł Kotelnicki, I am astonished by the level of misinformation that you introduced by yourself into this thread to provoke and blacken. I gave examples from history what happened to other similar dictators and their families, who were responsible for mass murdering people..

Probably, if I told you what the future held for you, you would claim I was threatening you.. Wouldn't you?

ps. Didn't you say to stop writing to you? You broke your own rule..

 

Now I have reported your earlier post.

[J.C.MacSwell]

Inching closer to banning Russia from Swift:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/momentum-grows-ban-russia-swift-payment-system-2022-02-26/

"Italy, which had been reluctant to take that step, on Friday said it would not veto proposals to ban Russia and pledged to continue working in unison with its EU partners. 

Germany, which has the EU's biggest trade flows with Russia, is also open to banning Russia from SWIFT, but must calculate the consequences for its economy, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Friday.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country strongly supported barring Russia from the system. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called on leaders of NATO member countries on Friday to take immediate action to remove Russia from SWIFT. 

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said a decision on SWIFT could happen in the "coming days." 

White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said removing Russia from SWIFT "remains an option on the table" and underscored President Joe Biden's preference to take steps together with allies."

For Ukraine, it cannot come soon enough.

[Alex_Krycek]

Possible escalation point: (involving overt conflict between NATO member state (Turkey) and Russia.  Obviously depends how much Russia cares about this maritime route.

Zelenskiy claims Turkey will ban Russian warships from Black Sea

Turkey will stop warships passing through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits, which connects the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Alex_Krycek

[mistermack]

I think that there's a lot that hasn't come out about this event. I'm pretty sure that the western leaders were told weeks ago by Russia through the back channels that Russia would take drastic action if it didn't get a deal. They couldn't say that publicly, because any deal would be rubbished in the media as a deal forced under threat. 

That's the same reason the Russians kept saying they had no plans to invade. No deal would be possible, if they said otherwise. (although the Russians have never cared at all about the truth of public statements)

Before this kicked off, I was wondering how the western leaders could be so sure that Putin would invade. Yes they could see the build up, but had no way of knowing what he would decide to do. But they kept repeating that they knew he would invade. Being informed by Russia through the back channels seems to me the only way they could be that certain. 

I said three or four weeks ago that I wished that NATO would just do a deal, and that Ukraine would be a ticking time bomb in NATO. What would it have cost them to do a deal? They could easily sell it as a move towards a more stable wold, a noble gesture, and in any case Uraine was never really going to join NATO in the next fifty years. 

It was all about egos and face. The US was still smarting over their loss of Crimea, which they thought they had won, when they pulled off the coup in Ukraine. 

But the world would be a much safer place if they HAD done a deal. I think they were fully informed of Putin's next move, and chose that route. Either that, or they thought he was bluffing. Either way, they fucked up big-time.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Turkey will stop warships passing through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits, which connects the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.

Ballsy move. Go Turkey. 

4 minutes ago, mistermack said:

I was wondering how the western leaders could be so sure that Putin would invade. Yes they could see the build up, but had no way of knowing what he would decide to do.

You seem unfamiliar with signals and intelligence??? The intelligence community was spot on all along with their assessments on this and that allowed leaders of NATO countries to speak so clearly about what was about to happen. Every time they said Putin would do XYZ, he then went and did XYZ. That doesn’t happen without high quality intel. 

6 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Uraine was never really going to join NATO in the next fifty years.

Your unfounded opinions about what the next 50 years will bring may make for fun fantasy novels, but aren’t a relevant basis for discussion here. 

7 minutes ago, mistermack said:

the world would be a much safer place if they HAD done a deal. I think they were fully informed of Putin's next move, and chose that route. Either that, or they thought he was bluffing. Either way, they fucked up big-time

If you’re suggesting the west should’ve agreed that Ukraine would never join nato and agreed to change their military posture across Europe and this would’ve appeased Putin, it leaves open the question of what Putin would’ve demanded next time. Don’t negotiate with terrorists and whatnot. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

1 hour ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Possible escalation point: (involving overt conflict between NATO member state (Turkey) and Russia.  Obviously depends how much Russia cares about this maritime route.

Zelenskiy claims Turkey will ban Russian warships from Black Sea

Turkey will stop warships passing through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits, which connects the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.

Has that been confirmed?

Another possible escalation is a declaration of a no fly zone over Ukraine backed by NATO. That would no doubt support the resistance, but would be even less acceptable to Putin than the many countries of NATO supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons including anti-tank and anti-aircraft.

[TheVat]

I liked Thomas Friedman's observation that a major invasion like this has no historical precedent because people didn't use to have smartphones -- acts of brutality, troop locations, etc are now less likely to be concealed in the fog of war.  All kinds of horror are released into the infosphere, raw and unfiltered.  Now we have situations like Russian convoys exposed by Google Maps because their traffic service wanted users to be aware of potential traffic jams.  That would be almost comical, if the stakes were not so horrible.  

 

Re latest post, a no-fly zone declared would be the on-ramp to WW3, possibly.  

[mistermack]

10 minutes ago, iNow said:

You seem unfamiliar with signals and intelligence???

You think that they can read Putin's mind???

Yes, I am unfamiliar with the mind-reading technology. 

Anyway, the west had their choice, and they made it. Presumably the world is now a better place.

Years ago, just after Glasnost, the Russian leadership made a serious proposal that Russia should be part of NATO. That was rubbished. We are now living with the consequences. 

Ronnie Reagan had to ignore all of the advice of his generals and national security advisers to do a deal with Gorbachev. They thought he was an idiot. Lucky he was. Shame he wasn't still around a month ago. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

2 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Re latest post, a no-fly zone declared would be the on-ramp to WW3, possibly.  

...assuming of course, we aren't already on it.