War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[SergUpstart]

3 hours ago, geordief said:

I agree the Russians have security concerns,but not at others' expense

Yes, there are problems with security. The Russian army treats the captured Ukrainians and the civilian population of Ukraine extremely correctly, which cannot be said about the actions of the Russian police in relation to those who protest against the war in Russian cities.

[zapatos]

11 minutes ago, SergUpstart said:

The Russian army treats the captured Ukrainians and the civilian population of Ukraine extremely correctly

How do you know this? 

Seems to me that a civilian being killed might not feel as if they were treated "extremely correctly".

[TheVat]

4 hours ago, Genady said:

As a former Soviet citizen with a part of the family coming from Ukraine I have to say that I never thought I will have such a high respect to the Ukrainian people and to their president (whose last name rhymes with mine.) 

Zelenskyy is a man of courage, leadership, and grace under pressure.   I don't say such things about politicians very often.  I predict people will be quoting "I need ammunition, I don't need a ride," for many years to come.  Хай живе Зеленський!

 

[beecee]

20 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Zelenskyy is a man of courage, leadership, and grace under pressure.   I don't say such things about politicians very often.  I predict people will be quoting "I need ammunition, I don't need a ride," for many years to come.  Хай живе Зеленський!

yes, from what I have seen and heard so far, very much so. I wish we had a PM with as much intestinal fortitude......

[beecee]

It seems along with his nuclear war threats that there is also an unconfirmed rumours that Putin has put out a 400 man hit squad to take Zelenskyy out. Perhaps some Russian citizen/s may see some promise in ending all this macho grandstanding by taking Putin out.

[Sensei]

"Google Maps has blocked two features in Ukraine that provide information to users in real time, the company confirmed to CNN on Sunday. "

"The disabled features include Google Maps' live traffic overlay — a feature some researchers have used to monitor the conflict from afar — as well as Live Busyness, a feature that displays how popular a location may be at a given time."

https://edition.cnn.com/webview/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-27-22/h_5dbd32d696ba3dddadc22d2749dcb102

(Russian soldiers used it to figure out where there was no traffic jams)

Ukrainians should make traffic jams wherever Russian troops may be moving. On both sides of the highway. And burn cars.

 

Cheap and easy way to stop them:

https://www.amazon.com/Tire-Spikes/s?k=Tire+Spikes

Send tire spikes to the Ukrainians.

And drop them on the roads from the air.

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Sensei

[Intoscience]

20 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Ukrainians should make traffic jams wherever Russian troops may be moving. On both sides of the highway. And burn cars. Cheap and easy way to stop them:

 

Not much use against tracked heavy armoured vehicles though. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Intoscience
spelling

[Sensei]

25 minutes ago, Intoscience said:

Not much use against tracked heavy armoured vehicles though. 

Tanks and other tracked vehicles require fuel and dozens of people around them to protect them. They are provided by regular vehicles on wheels. Obstacles in the road slow them down and make them an easier target.

[Sensei]

Crimea-Russia Bridge. Target for "yesterday" for Ukrainian (or friends) airplanes, drones or missiles..

Edited February 28, 2022 by Sensei

[iNow]

5 hours ago, beecee said:

there is also an unconfirmed rumours that Putin has put out a 400 man hit squad to take Zelenskyy out

Then they need do little more than wait along the border with Belarus where he's about to meet (has already met?) with Russia to discuss options

[mistermack]

2 hours ago, Sensei said:

Crimea-Russia Bridge. Target for "yesterday" for Ukrainian (or friends) airplanes, drones or missiles..

He would just use that as a reason to keep a land bridge. It's likely to become just a tourist attraction. 

[Alex_Krycek]

19 hours ago, StringJunky said:

If the Ukrainian can get bedded into the brickwork, most of Russia's war toys will useless overkill. They'll have a 1970's Northern Ireland street war on their hands, witrh their adversary remotely assisted by well-funded  and miltarized sources. This seems to be turning out as a proxy war for NATO against Russia. I wonder how Russia likes that, now the shoe is on the other foot? I sense it is going to be the greyest of grey wars. 

It would quickly turn into a war of attrition, Russia's Vietnam. 

Ukranian civilians holding AK-47s might make for sensational television, but in reality horrific loss of life will ensue if these people actually see combat. They'll be absolutely slaughtered.

I hope that doesn't happen.  Putin would likely drag it out for years regardless of the civilian casualties, using each Russian casualty as justification for an exponential increase in force.

A better route that Zelensky might have chosen for his people might have been that of collective Non-Violent resistance, nationwide civil disobedience.  

 

 

[Sensei]

27 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

A better route that Zelensky might have chosen for his people might have been that of collective Non-Violent resistance, nationwide civil disobedience.  

...he orders the murder of members of the non-violent opposition even in his own country..

[MigL]

For all intents and purposes, Russia, and V Putin has already lost.

They have become a pariah state, which most of the world has turned its back on, and, what was expected to be an '11 min' action to overthrow the elected government of Ukraine has exposed deep weaknesses in the Russian military forces.

All they can do now  is contnue punishing the Ukrainians, and make blustering threats with their nuclear arsenal.
Sooner or later, the military, if not the people, will remove V Putin for all the useless harm he has done.

[iNow]

14 minutes ago, MigL said:

Sooner or later, the military, if not the people, will remove V Putin for all the useless harm he has done.

The "Julius Caesar" solution doesn't strike me as likely given that his inner circle is small enough to include only like 2 other people right now, but a popular uprising could definitely get more popular and achieve the same outcome. 

[koti]

16 minutes ago, iNow said:

The "Julius Caesar" solution doesn't strike me as likely given that his inner circle is small enough to include only like 2 other people right now, but a popular uprising could definitely get more popular and achieve the same outcome. 

A few thousand have been arrested for protesting and 1 million has signed a petition to stop the war. It’s not much in a 140 mln country but this will change when the food runs out.

[TheVat]

The sanctions will hit ordinary citizens hard in Russia, a country whose per capita GDP is (IIRC) around that of Romania.  A popular uprising seems quite possible now, especially if you add lots of war mortality and the country mired in a "Vietnam" with raw disheartened recruits. And, as @kotipoints out, the prospect of empty stomachs can concentrate the mind wonderfully.  

 

My concern is that Putin may not have any sober advisors in the Russian command now, and might respond to a Ukraine "embedded in the brickwork" (great turn of phrase, @String Junky) with carpet bombing and scorched earth.  Or worse. 

 

 

[mistermack]

What you have to remember is that the Russian people are not exposed to the constant spin of the western media. They are not going to view this in the way that people in the west will. 

The spin in Russia will be just as one sided as in our media, so I wouldn't expect much from the Russian people. ( I'm guessing ) But any Russian dissent will be shown over here, as if it's everywhere. You won't get to see the truth, any more than the Russians will. 

And the fall in the Rouble might be a problem for the Russian economy, but it's also a real oportunity for Russia to buy back it's own currency at a knockdown price. I'm not sure who wins in that situation. 

[iNow]

53 minutes ago, TheVat said:

My concern is that Putin may not have any sober advisors in the Russian command now

They're known as yes-men, also sycophants. 

[geordief]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

They're known as yes-men, also sycophants. 

Some would  presumably be worried about being given the "off ramp" if they voiced anything less than 100% approval ,especially  now.

As an aside ,didn't sycophants originally have food tasting for the tyrant as their job?

(think  sykos is Greek for "fig")

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by geordief

[Sensei]

25 minutes ago, geordief said:

As an aside ,didn't sycophants originally have food tasting for the tyrant as their job?

The ancient Greeks, in some city-states, forbade the sale of figs without permission. If a farmer/landlord/merchant disobeyed this law and was spotted by some sycophant, informed the rest of the public and denounced. The sycophant received a portion of the confiscated property. Sycophant is denouncer.

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Sensei

[empleat]

Nuclear Deterrence is stupid AF... One person can press red button and there is little anyone can do, as Putin has key personnel on his side, there is no chance of overthrowing Putain: except maybe if military person refused to press the button I heard! Besides high alert ICBM, human error during escalation and fog of war... 

Also modern leaders are uneducated on Nuclear Deterrence, or they forget (I heard) not sure!

There are those who know what I Am talking about... I wonder why no one tells them! Roger Penrose should tell Putain, or he will condemn us all to hell of (imagine what those people with 3rd degree burns will have to go through)... Even there is probably no one could EVER do anything, even super intelligent AI... And if you think I Am irrational: you are delusional! Because no one can take pain over a certain threshold... You just don't admit it to yourself, because you would be depressed and tortured every second by immense pain... And that is all good for individuals, because evolution hides truths if they are not necessary for survival and if everyone had depression all the time - that would suck! But this is very possible threat (and even it is not certain, even so it is soo huge of a threat that any superrational thinker would try to change his behavior accordingly and try to counter it by any means necessary) and you are committing to logical fallacy, unless you know every possible permutation of everything and even then possibly...

Humanity will probably destroy itself, which sucks for reasons I can't tell - as I don't want  to cause depression unnecessarily...

Problem is geniuses commit to art to escape (existential boredom, ego and suffering) and don't go to politics, or to get power, so minority psychopaths rule us, while majority of people are no inherently bad - they are brainwashed a lot and desperate - life is tough AF!!! Also geniuses are pushing boundaries and have criminal record and what not, so they couldn't run... Or they are pushed away by insecure people, or abused: so they either retire, or don't get even a chance in their lives (when I saw what geniuses go through in their lives - it is disgusting at best)!!! And elites like you and peer-review cartels are the problem!!! Also nobel prizes are joke, everything is pre-determined, or random probably anyways... You are just stroking your ego, as achievement is illusion... https://quotepark.com/quotes/1729479-arthur-schopenhauer-now-if-plurality-and-difference-belong-only-to-the/ Novel prizes serve only as motivator for people which don't know, not sure if it is good for science itself, probably not... It is not like you chosen your environment, or genes which determines your intelligence. There are still lots of elites in scientific circles slowing down progress... I talked to 160IQ cleared criminal record, after 1000 applications can't get a job... Also our ethics/laws are stupid... So given everything... coincidentally we are fucked! https://academyofideas.com/2013/12/the-ethics-of-schopenhauer/ https://bigthink.com/high-culture/schopenhauer-music-will/

PS: hopefully it won't happen, but Putin is not very likely retreating (fighting to the end) and diplomacy will be probably impossible! Besides his mental state is in question and he is near at his expectancy of life... Also it could escalate to war between NATO and RU and some officials/generals in US were worried in past Putain could use short-range nukes to force negotiations... We will see I guess...

[zapatos]

44 minutes ago, empleat said:

Nuclear Deterrence is stupid AF... One person can press red button and there is little anyone can do, as Putin has key personnel on his side, there is no chance of overthrowing Putain: except maybe if military person refused to press the button I heard! Besides high alert ICBM, human error during escalation and fog of war... 

Also modern leaders are uneducated on Nuclear Deterrence, or they forget (I heard) not sure!

There are those who know what I Am talking about... I wonder why no one tells them! Roger Penrose should tell Putain, or he will condemn us all to hell of (imagine what those people with 3rd degree burns will have to go through)... Even there is probably no one could EVER do anything, even super intelligent AI... And if you think I Am irrational: you are delusional! Because no one can take pain over a certain threshold... You just don't admit it to yourself, because you would be depressed and tortured every second by immense pain... And that is all good for individuals, because evolution hides truths if they are not necessary for survival and if everyone had depression all the time - that would suck! But this is very possible threat (and even it is not certain, even so it is soo huge of a threat that any superrational thinker would try to change his behavior accordingly and try to counter it by any means necessary) and you are committing to logical fallacy, unless you know every possible permutation of everything and even then possibly...

Humanity will probably destroy itself, which sucks for reasons I can't tell - as I don't want  to cause depression unnecessarily...

Problem is geniuses commit to art to escape (existential boredom, ego and suffering) and don't go to politics, or to get power, so minority psychopaths rule us, while majority of people are no inherently bad - they are brainwashed a lot and desperate - life is tough AF!!! Also geniuses are pushing boundaries and have criminal record and what not, so they couldn't run... Or they are pushed away by insecure people, or abused: so they either retire, or don't get even a chance in their lives (when I saw what geniuses go through in their lives - it is disgusting at best)!!! And elites like you and peer-review cartels are the problem!!! Also nobel prizes are joke, everything is pre-determined, or random probably anyways... You are just stroking your ego, as achievement is illusion... https://quotepark.com/quotes/1729479-arthur-schopenhauer-now-if-plurality-and-difference-belong-only-to-the/ Novel prizes serve only as motivator for people which don't know, not sure if it is good for science itself, probably not... It is not like you chosen your environment, or genes which determines your intelligence. There are still lots of elites in scientific circles slowing down progress... I talked to 160IQ cleared criminal record, after 1000 applications can't get a job... Also our ethics/laws are stupid... So given everything... coincidentally we are fucked! https://academyofideas.com/2013/12/the-ethics-of-schopenhauer/ https://bigthink.com/high-culture/schopenhauer-music-will/

PS: hopefully it won't happen, but Putin is not very likely retreating (fighting to the end) and diplomacy will be probably impossible! Besides his mental state is in question and he is near at his expectancy of life... Also it could escalate to war between NATO and RU and some officials/generals in US were worried in past Putain could use short-range nukes to force negotiations... We will see I guess...

Feel better after getting all that off your chest?

[empleat]

6 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Feel better after getting all that off your chest?

I wasn't telling that to let it of my chest, you don't understand me at all... Just wonder how come no one tells putin some 200 IQ genius, or something... If it was true indeed you wouldn't be laughing (which you don't know)... Also many people can suffer either way...

[iNow]

17 minutes ago, empleat said:

you don't understand me at all.

Agreed. You should do better when expressing yourself.