War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[Dropship]

13 hours ago, iNow said:

In this one, the civilian casualties appear intentional. 

The same thing has been said about US forces in other wars, but as a military forum moderator and- ahem- online computer wargame champion, I can tell you it's just propaganda hogwash because nobody is going to deliberately waste munitions bombing kindergartens instead of military barracks and troop concentrations etc..:)

PS- our western pro-Ukrainian anti-Putin media seems to forget that Ukraine has been bombing the Donbas separatist area for years, causing civilian collateral damage like this-  

Edited March 12, 2022 by Dropship

[J.C.MacSwell]

33 minutes ago, iNow said:

Sounds like you’re suggesting their stockpiles are already depleted? That sounds unlikely to me, but I also haven’t tracked that metric myself. 

I don't know either. Nor was I trying to suggest that.

To me it makes no difference. The intent is pretty clear that they are for use to defend themselves, but they are lethal weapons. When Germany joined in in the supply of them after the war began it marked a historic shift in policy for them.

It seems it's allowed though. So hopefully it is effective for Ukraine while leading toward deescalation rather than escalation.

[Dropship]

18 hours ago, Moontanman said:

I have a prophecy to make, "someone" is going to use a weapon of mass destruction before this is over with. I'm betting he will use a tactical nuke when cornered and dare the west to do something about it. Someone's cheese has slid off his cracker and can't grok the present or the future due to his desire to go back to the good old days. 

 

Yes, a few years ago Putin boasted he could take Kiev within 2 weeks (below), but as time is now running out to achieve that deadline, he's no doubt getting redfaced and might be tempted to go nuclear if he's mad and embarrassed enough..

And to add to Putin's embarassment, Russian military forces massively outnumber Ukraine's, so on paper should have waltzed into Kiev without much opposition-

Edited March 12, 2022 by Dropship

[iNow]

31 minutes ago, Dropship said:

[As an] online computer wargame champion, I can tell you it's just propaganda hogwash

Oh, well so long as YOU’RE convinced, yep. That’s good enough for me. 👍

26 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

hopefully it is effective for Ukraine while leading toward deescalation rather than escalation.

It’s definitely going to deescalate. The only real question is how long that may take to eventually happen. 

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

Oh, well so long as YOU’RE convinced, yep. That’s good enough for me. 👍

It’s definitely going to deescalate. The only real question is how long that may take to eventually happen. 

I read earlier that it's been noticed everytime something has been suggested, he's done a 180 after pressure from both houses and Europe. Just read today he said the US will not turn it into WW3 by having US personnel actively fighting.... He has a good approach: says 'no', then waits for the feedback and what consensus there is for the idea. Consensus is critical in this scenario. I think those SU-29's that's been offered, and he's said 'no' to, will wing there way to Ukraine.

Edited March 12, 2022 by StringJunky

[Genady]

Quote

It makes little sense to us that additional fixed-wing aircraft is going to have somehow solve all these problems. What they need are surface-to-air missile systems, they need MANPADS, they need anti-armor, and they need small arms and ammunition, and they need these drones, because that's what they're using with great effect. And so, that's what we're focused on

Ukraine using drones to 'great effect' on Russian forces: Pentagon updates (yahoo.com)

[Dropship]

4 hours ago, iNow said:

Oh, well so long as YOU’RE convinced, yep. That’s good enough for me. 👍

Thanks mate and like I said, Putin is a lousy strategist just like Hitler was..:)

Let me introduce you to my 6" wargaming trophy, it sits on its own small table in my living room, carefully positioned so that it's the first thing guests see when they arrive and I can keep steering the conversation towards it during the course of the evening..:)

 

[iNow]

The US has authorized another $200M arms package including antitank and antiaircraft missiles for Ukraine bringing the total to $1.2B in weapons sent by the Biden administration in the past year. 

[TheVat]

6 hours ago, Dropship said:

 

Let me introduce you to my 6" wargaming trophy, it sits on its own small table in my living room, carefully positioned so that it's the first thing guests see when they arrive and I can keep steering the conversation towards it during the course of the evening...

If you have any other 6" possessions you feel like bragging about, I humbly request that you restrain yourself.

8 hours ago, StringJunky said:

I read earlier that it's been noticed everytime something has been suggested, he's done a 180 after pressure from both houses and Europe. Just read today he said the US will not turn it into WW3 by having US personnel actively fighting.... He has a good approach: says 'no', then waits for the feedback and what consensus there is for the idea. Consensus is critical in this scenario. I think those SU-29's that's been offered, and he's said 'no' to, will wing there way to Ukraine.

Consensus building is what he ran on in 2020, and was his MO in the Senate years.  So one can hope.

[Dropship]

Although on the face of it Putin must have been bonkers to invade in the mud season and get his troops bogged down, he didn't want to risk waiting for summer in case Ukraine joined NATO before then and turned a pretty shade of blue-

Edited March 13, 2022 by Dropship

[iNow]

Can you read everyone’s minds, or just the mind of the autocrat in charge of Russia and threatening nuclear fallout across Eurasia right now?

[SergUpstart]

Several missiles arrived at the US Consulate General in Iraq from the territory of Iran

[swansont]

1 hour ago, SergUpstart said:

Several missiles arrived at the US Consulate General in Iraq from the territory of Iran

The connection with Ukraine is…?

[SergUpstart]

25 minutes ago, swansont said:

The connection with Ukraine is…?

What about lifting sanctions on Iran to replace Russian oil?

[swansont]

2 hours ago, SergUpstart said:

What about lifting sanctions on Iran to replace Russian oil?

After they shot missiles at the US consulate?

[J.C.MacSwell]

7 hours ago, Dropship said:

Although on the face of it Putin must have been bonkers to invade in the mud season and get his troops bogged down, he didn't want to risk waiting for summer in case Ukraine joined NATO before then and turned a pretty shade of blue-

The lovely blue there...Why would they have joined NATO? I wonder why they didn't join Putin?

[J.C.MacSwell]

Now, what happens to sanctions after the war? 

Does it depend on how it ends? If it's a negotiated settlement, is Russia in a position to demand the end to some of the sanctions as part of any agreement?

How quickly can Russia recover, or do they in fact continue to decline from the sanction effects even after some are reversed?

Also how can the West support the rebuilding of Ukraine if it falls to Russian control?

It would seem to me that the West should feel compelled to discourage any support for Russia's economy while under Putin, but at the same time want to help out the people of Ukraine, if not Russians as well to some extent.

[iNow]

55 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Does it depend on how it ends?

Exactly. Sanctions will remain as a negotiation lever and will be wound down contingent on agreements made and Russian adherence to them. 

[geordief]

Which side has the upper hand in the military  intelligence/cyber warfare battle that I assume is going on or being prepared in the background.

 

I understand that Russia  has very good capability  but would be surprised and disappointed if Nato did not have a clear level of superiority  if called for.

[iNow]

9 minutes ago, geordief said:

Which side has the upper hand in the military  intelligence/cyber warfare battle that I assume is going on or being prepared in the background.

 

I understand that Russia  has very good capability  but would be surprised and disappointed if Nato did not have a clear level of superiority  if called for.

The US pretty clearly has escalation dominance, but is also more unwilling to use it. 

[geordief]

8 minutes ago, iNow said:

The US pretty clearly has escalation dominance, but is also more unwilling to use it. 

Would cyber warfare be considered direct conflict?

 

Eg would it be less risky than  the idea of providing Polish planes which has seemingly been dropped? (if it was ever considered seriously)

 

I think Nato is providing real time intelligence  to Ukranian forces.Can they  be proactive in this domain?

[zapatos]

20 minutes ago, geordief said:

Which side has the upper hand in the military  intelligence/cyber warfare battle that I assume is going on or being prepared in the background.

 

I understand that Russia  has very good capability  but would be surprised and disappointed if Nato did not have a clear level of superiority  if called for.

There is also the Russia/Ukraine cyber battle that should be considered. While it seems likely Russia holds the upper hand over Ukraine, Russia probably has a lot more to lose.

[swansont]

2 minutes ago, geordief said:

Would cyber warfare be considered direct conflict?

Russia has engaged before, so their targets don’t seem to think so.

2 minutes ago, geordief said:

Eg would it be less risky than  the idea of providing Polish planes which has seemingly been dropped? (if it was ever considered seriously)

Is there a shortage of planes? They won’t do any good if there are no pilots to fly them. It’s not like you can train up a pilot quickly, compared to getting someone basic skills in shooting a weapon.

[geordief]

29 minutes ago, swansont said:

 

Is there a shortage of planes? They won’t do any good if there are no pilots to fly them. It’s not like you can train up a pilot quickly, compared to getting someone basic skills in shooting a weapon.

I wasn't bringing up the planes except as  a reference point.

I was just  wondering how close to the edge can Nato countries operate with an unacceptable  risk of escalation (piece of string?) ?

 

(But I thought I had understood that the planes in question were familiar to Ukranian pilots as being old Soviet era  models.And maybe a shortage of planes will occur at some stage)

[zapatos]

35 minutes ago, swansont said:

Is there a shortage of planes? They won’t do any good if there are no pilots to fly them. It’s not like you can train up a pilot quickly, compared to getting someone basic skills in shooting a weapon.

I cannot find a direct answer to that question, but given that Ukraine is asking for the fighters, it is probably safe to assume they think they can use them.