War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[beecee]

7 hours ago, dimreepr said:

The point Confucius is trying to make is, if we just hate instead of trying to understand; then we all lose...

I think we all understand Unlawful invasion, war, murder, rape, atrocities, war crimes,  etc, and the inherent evil it is,  drunk or sober.

6 hours ago, iNow said:

It doesn't matter whether or not someone hates Putin, and this thread isn't about the finer intricacies of hate versus love. It's about stopping unwarranted slaughter of innocents and anyone who dares call themselves Ukrainian. 

+1

[beecee]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/15/putin-thought-ukraine-war-was-a-missile-to-nato-it-may-be-a-boomerang

extract:

By invading Ukraine, Putin thought he had hurled a missile at the west. It has emerged to be a precision-guided boomerang. To have turned two stolidly non-aligned countries into Nato members would join the pantheon of great strategic blunders of wartime.

It is all the more extraordinary since the turnaround has been so rapid. Finland, with its brand of semi-neutrality for the past 70 years and emphasis on consensus-building, tends to shift foreign policy with glacial speed. Finland’s tolerance of Putin was so embedded that some on the left claimed it strayed close to collaboration as the Finnish political elite shunned the Russian opposition.

In the government’s annual survey in December, Finnish support for Nato membership stood at 24%.

Four months later, Finnish politics has somersaulted. Support for Nato membership stood at 68%. Surveys now show more than half of the 200 parliamentarians back Nato membership. In the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections, 91% of SDP candidates were opposed to Nato membership. The Finnish SDP prime minister, Sanna Marin, said everything had changed. Russia is “not the neighbour we thought it was”, she said.

Alexander Stubb, a former Finnish prime minister, said Finland’s membership is based on rational fear, created on the day of the Russian invasion. He predicts the Finnish application will be with Nato HQ by the end of May. “The train has left the station.

[geordief]

40 minutes ago, beecee said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/15/putin-thought-ukraine-war-was-a-missile-to-nato-it-may-be-a-boomerang

extract:

By invading Ukraine, Putin thought he had hurled a missile at the west. It has emerged to be a precision-guided boomerang. To have turned two stolidly non-aligned countries into Nato members would join the pantheon of great strategic blunders of wartime.

It is all the more extraordinary since the turnaround has been so rapid. Finland, with its brand of semi-neutrality for the past 70 years and emphasis on consensus-building, tends to shift foreign policy with glacial speed. Finland’s tolerance of Putin was so embedded that some on the left claimed it strayed close to collaboration as the Finnish political elite shunned the Russian opposition.

In the government’s annual survey in December, Finnish support for Nato membership stood at 24%.

Four months later, Finnish politics has somersaulted. Support for Nato membership stood at 68%. Surveys now show more than half of the 200 parliamentarians back Nato membership. In the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections, 91% of SDP candidates were opposed to Nato membership. The Finnish SDP prime minister, Sanna Marin, said everything had changed. Russia is “not the neighbour we thought it was”, she said.

Alexander Stubb, a former Finnish prime minister, said Finland’s membership is based on rational fear, created on the day of the Russian invasion. He predicts the Finnish application will be with Nato HQ by the end of May. “The train has left the station.

What is surprising to an outsider  is that Finland should have had any misconceptions about the character of the Russian political system.

 

Indeed, notwithstanding those recent polls for staying out of Nato,I have heard that the memory of the last Russo- Finnish war has lain very close to the surface of the public's conscience there ever since.

 

Perhaps the Fins  like all of us  were taken aback by the neck of Putin who imagined that the invasion of a neighbouring country could be undertaken  almost for sport.

 

The fate of his endeavour seems to pivot on some kind of a "success" in the Dombas.

 

I wish him God speed to Hell this time around and a dose of smelling salts to his lackeys in the Russian  political  system.

Edited April 15, 2022 by geordief

[StringJunky]

Putin clearly has bit off more than he can chew. It's a bit like a community football team winning all their matches and thinking they are good enough for the UK premier league or one of the other top national football divisions. This conflict, even if he gets what wants, will surely make him think twice about attacking a NATO country. I suspect China has thought/is thinking like Russia too; that it is invincible by sheer numbers. If you don't have committed soldiers and citizens, that strength is just an illusion. Ukraine has shown that handily, with material support from the West.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

Putin clearly has bit off more than he can chew.

Unless his goal is destabilization across the planet, of course. 

Loss of Ukrainian wheat leading to starvation across Africa and the Middle East. Leading all of Europe to fear nuclear fallout from taking over Chernobyl, threatening tactical nuke usage, and more.

Other nations using this “distraction” as a perfect time to ratchet up ballistic missile tests (N.Korea), to shift leaders (Iran), to consider taking Taiwan (China), and to split democracies more broadly in South America. 

If Putins goal is to weaken the seams stitching together a cohesive global society, perhaps he’s perfectly hitting his target and chewing exactly the amount he wants. 

[StringJunky]

56 minutes ago, iNow said:

Unless his goal is destabilization across the planet, of course. 

Loss of Ukrainian wheat leading to starvation across Africa and the Middle East. Leading all of Europe to fear nuclear fallout from taking over Chernobyl, threatening tactical nuke usage, and more.

Other nations using this “distraction” as a perfect time to ratchet up ballistic missile tests (N.Korea), to shift leaders (Iran), to consider taking Taiwan (China), and to split democracies more broadly in South America. 

If Putins goal is to weaken the seams stitching together a cohesive global society, perhaps he’s perfectly hitting his target and chewing exactly the amount he wants. 

You are crediting him with too much intelligence.

[iNow]

Just now, StringJunky said:

You are crediting him with too much intelligence.

He’s no dummy 

[StringJunky]

13 minutes ago, iNow said:

He’s no dummy 

But not smart enough he can handle that many balls in the air at the same time. Putin has up until now appeared shrewed and smart by fostering a state of personal elusivenes and mystique. Now his actions are visible, the reality of his true neptness is there for all to see. He's a gangster with a mentality to match. Putin has singlehandedly destroyed the decades-long Russian illusion of being a superpower in a few weeks. It's my personal opinion that only US can claim that handle. I think China is the same as Russia. Only their nukes give them any real military status.  The US can fight on any level to a high level of competence and commitment by its servicemen. They aren't oppressed.

Edited April 16, 2022 by StringJunky

[geordief]

12 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

But not smart enough he can handle that many balls in the air at the same time. Putin has up until now appeared shrewed and smart by fostering a state of personal elusivenes and mystique. Now his actions are visible, the reality of his true neptness is there for all to see. He's a gangster with a mentality to match. Putin has singlehandedly destroyed the decades-long Russian illusion of being a superpower in a few weeks. It's my personal opinion that only US can claim that handle. I think China is the same as Russia. Only their nukes give them any real military status.  The US can fight on any level to a high level of competence and commitment by its servicemen. They aren't oppressed.

I don't think global destabilization would have been a conscious  goal of his but I can see that he might welcome it and  foster it if  occurred "on his watch" as it were

 

And yes ,very hard to juggle those balls but he might feel that his ineptitude  has set a very low bar and so might ,if allowed  be willing to roll the dice

 

[StringJunky]

5 minutes ago, geordief said:

And yes ,very hard to juggle those balls but he might feel that his ineptitude  has set a very low bar and so might ,if allowed  be willing to roll the dice

Yeah, trying to follow where Trump led.

[dimreepr]

11 hours ago, iNow said:

He’s no dummy 

Indeed, using a poker analogy, he's short stacked and he's made a substantial raise pre-flop with a pair of 9's; it doesn't matter what the flop is, he's always going to commit everything; because he has nothing to lose, and if we win the hand he's always got his gun.

[J.C.MacSwell]

Other than his ability to think well outside the common decency box, and care nothing about anyone but himself, he's no genius either.

He's played himself.

Or in the words of Mrs. Gump..."Stupid is as stupid does".

[dimreepr]

3 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Other than his ability to think well outside the common decency box, and care nothing about anyone but himself, he's no genius either.

No one is claiming his genius, but he's no dummy either; his ability to think outside the decency box, indicates a sociopath; read East of Eden...

36 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Or in the words of Mrs. Gump..."Stupid is as stupid does".

That would depend on who wins...

[J.C.MacSwell]

Putin' on the Ritz

Moscow's Red Square May 9, 2022. Presumably Putin will be outside enjoying all the pomp and circumstance with his 12,000 or so extensively vetted guests. Should he be nervous of any of them? Surely some of them might soon be up for house arrest or "heart attack".

Or maybe more so from a Bayraktar or stealthier drone appearing seemingly out of nowhere? (obviously not flying in from Ukraine itself)

Would this parade be a legitimate target for Ukraine, if they could somehow pull it off? Some of the hardware on display could surely be designated for future use against Ukraine.

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by J.C.MacSwell

[SergUpstart]

10 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Would this parade be a legitimate target for Ukraine, if they could somehow pull it off? Some of the hardware on display could surely be designated for future use against Ukraine.

Just like November 7, 1941

[swansont]

1 hour ago, SergUpstart said:

Just like November 7, 1941

I'm not sure what the connection is. What happened on Nov 7, 1941 that would be analogous?

[SergUpstart]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

What happened on Nov 7, 1941 that would be analogous?

A parade was held on Red Square in Moscow from where Soviet troops immediately went to the front, which then took place 100 km west of Moscow.

[geordief]

7 minutes ago, SergUpstart said:

A parade was held on Red Square in Moscow from where Soviet troops immediately went to the front, which then took place 100 km west of Moscow.

Was that 1941 parade directly targeted in the way it has been suggested that the upcoming May parade might be?

 

How are the two parades comparable?

 

Personally I feel that such an attack might play into the hands of the Russian  Disinformation Services(though their dirty work has mostly been done by now,I'd say)

It could present a pretext for threats of nuclear attacks and so could  conceivably even be staged for that purpose.

 

 

[dimreepr]

1 hour ago, geordief said:

How are the two parades comparable?

If they were two parables 

[MigL]

SergUpstart fails to see the connection that it is the Ukrainians who are fighting for their lives against the Russian invasion forces; just like the Russians were fighting for their lives against Hitler's invasion forces in 1941.
There is no one attacking Russia !

Take off the blinders, and get the hell out of Ukraine.

[J.C.MacSwell]

9 hours ago, SergUpstart said:

A parade was held on Red Square in Moscow from where Soviet troops immediately went to the front, which then took place 100 km west of Moscow.

Here is Stalin's speech from that parade. Interesting to juxtapose those circumstances with current situation.

 

Stalin, for that brief period of time, found himself potentially on the right side of history.

Putin obviously is not.

[J.C.MacSwell]

Video coming out of the Moskva's last moments prior to sinking. It kind of questions Russia's version of both the damage being done just due to a fire and it sinking under tow due to rough weather and adverse sea conditions (If I ever consider reducing sail in the those conditions...time to put me down)

 

[LaurieAG]

19 hours ago, SergUpstart said:

Just like November 7, 1941

Google gives the following first.

Quote

The Soviet hospital ship Armenia was sunk by German bombers while evacuating civilians and wounded soldiers from Crimea. As many as 7,000 people were killed in the sinking, making it one of the worst maritime disasters in history.

 

[SergUpstart]

Turkey has launched its special military operation against the Kurds with an invasion of the territory of sovereign Iraq. Nobody in the world cares about that.

[StringJunky]

18 minutes ago, SergUpstart said:

Turkey has launched its special military operation against the Kurds with an invasion of the territory of sovereign Iraq. Nobody in the world cares about that.