War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[MSC]

21 hours ago, SergUpstart said:

Nobody in the world cares about that.

Are you not a part of everybody? I care. But open up a new thread, give us more info on said thread. We'd appreciate that.

[StringJunky]

This AP piece on how China might be viewing the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and what it might be learning from it  seems pertinent to the topic at this point:

Quote

China looks to learn from Russian failures in Ukraine

BANGKOK (AP) — With its ground troops forced to pull back in Ukraine and regroup, and its Black Sea flagship sunk, Russia’s military failings are mounting. No country is paying closer attention than China to how a smaller and outgunned force has badly bloodied what was thought to be one of the world’s most powerful armies.

China, like Russia, has been ambitiously reforming its Soviet-style military and experts say leader Xi Jinping will be carefully parsing the weaknesses exposed by the invasion of Ukraine as they might apply to his own People’s Liberation Army and his designs on the self-governed island of Taiwan.

“The big question Xi and the PLA leadership must be asking in light of Russian operations in Ukraine is whether a military that has undergone extensive reform and modernization will be able to execute operations that are far more complex than those Russia has undertaken during its invasion of Ukraine,” said M. Taylor Fravel, director of the security studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Russia’s armed forces have undergone an extensive process of reform and investment for more than a decade, with lessons learned in combat in Georgia, Chechnya, Syria and its annexation of Crimea helping guide the process. The Ukrainian invasion, however, has exposed weaknesses from the top down.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-china-xi-jinping-taiwan-e9f50d985c38c487aba918d088099f9a

 

[dimreepr]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/us/politics/russia-putin-missile-test.html

He's determined to win something, and if we can't prize his finger off the trigger we all lose.

This seems to me, much more serious than the Cuban crisis, because he has nothing left to lose and doesn't care about the consequences. 

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, dimreepr said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/us/politics/russia-putin-missile-test.html

He's determined to win something, and if we can't prize his finger off the trigger we all lose.

This seems to me, much more serious than the Cuban crisis, because he has nothing left to lose and doesn't care about the consequences. 

His consolation prize will be Mariupol, probably. The other thing is, does his nuclear chain of command even work? Might there not be more logical generals around him or commanders in the chain to thwart such ideas? The same thing happened with Trump... there was no way he was going to execute such a command towards the end of his presidency, if he had wanted to. 

[MigL]

I don't think their forces can actually take Mariupol conventionally.
The steel mill where the Ukrainian resistance is making their stand is very large and criss-crossed with underground concrete tunnels. They are well sheltered against mortar/bombardment.
The only option for the Russian forces is to starve the resistance of food/water or ammunition.

This might be a good time for the Ukrainians to use those extra 22 MiG-29s that they have salvaged with Slovakian parts, to bomb open a corridor so as to resupply the resistance fighters.
First wave to drop bombs and clear out Russian forces; second wave for close air support of the trucks bringing in supplies.

[SergUpstart]

3 minutes ago, MigL said:

This might be a good time for the Ukrainians to use those extra 22 MiG-29s that they have salvaged with Slovakian parts, to bomb open a corridor so as to resupply the resistance fighters.
First wave to drop bombs and clear out Russian forces; second wave for close air support of the trucks bringing in supplies.

These MiG-29s were delivered disassembled, they were going to be assembled back at the Lviv Aircraft Repair Plant. But Russian intelligence knew everything and the plant was destroyed by Iskanders the day before yesterday. 

Today, Russian aviation began striking railway bridges across the Dnieper River to prevent the transfer of heavy equipment to the Donbass.

[zapatos]

1 hour ago, SergUpstart said:

Russian intelligence knew everything

There is only one way you could know that to be true, which would confirm a suspicion I've had of you.

[MigL]

Russian Intelligence ???
Bit of an Oxymoron, ain't it ?
The way most all Russians have been easily duped by propaganda, and swindled by their President and his band of oligarchs.
you included.

[MSC]

46 minutes ago, MigL said:

The way most all Russians have been easily duped by propaganda, and swindled by their President and his band of oligarchs.

Stupidity for some yes. For others, the brutality that came with the propaganda is more of a factor. Fear and ignorance together is a powerful thing. 😕

[dimreepr]

21 hours ago, StringJunky said:

His consolation prize will be Mariupol, probably. The other thing is, does his nuclear chain of command even work? Might there not be more logical generals around him or commanders in the chain to thwart such ideas? The same thing happened with Trump... there was no way he was going to execute such a command towards the end of his presidency, if he had wanted to. 

Who knows, but it's much likely to work with Putin pressing the button than Trump.

7 hours ago, MigL said:

Russian Intelligence ???
Bit of an Oxymoron, ain't it ?

Isn't that what they say about military intelligence?

Edited April 22, 2022 by dimreepr

[swansont]

On 4/15/2022 at 6:25 AM, swansont said:

It was being towed, and some time had passed, so probably not. But reports are that the Russians have moved their fleet away not closer than 80 nautical miles to Ukrainian territory. Presumably to prevent further "accidents"

"A ship matching Moskva’s size and situation is seen at 45°10’43.39″N, 30°55’30.54″E. This position is east of Snake Island, 80 nautical miles from Odesa and 50 nautical miles from the Ukrainian coast. The satellite passed at 6.52pm local time. Based on analysis by multiple people, we are confident that this shows Moskva’s final hours."

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/satellite-image-pinpoints-russian-cruiser-moskva-as-she-burned/

AFAIK within 12 nm is within a nation's territory, but there is an economic zone that extends to 200 nm (modified by the existence of another nation's territory or zone, where you tend to split the difference or negotiate where the boundary is)

[J.C.MacSwell]

All Quiet on the Conservation Front?

Germany is a prime example of being so (legitimately?) afraid of pushing Putin toward use of Nuclear weapons and at the same time legitimately concerned with the effect an abrupt turn away from their economy's dependance on Russian fossil fuels. So along with many others they continue to fuel the Russian's economy and the war and Russian atrocities along with it by continuing purchases from Russia.

It seems to me increased production from other sources should be maximized, especially where it can be increased short term without further excessive commitment to fossil fuels long term, but even turning to more dependance on coal is better than dealing with the results of any use of nuclear weapons.

But further to that, a war time fossil fuel austerity program should be put in place to minimize unnecessary fossil fuel use, regardless of source...since all use effects the global pressure on fuel supplies and reserves. Countries like Canada, Australia and the US, that have banned Russian fossil fuels, should participate as well, not just those in Europe and elsewhere that are clearly on side with Ukraine in heart and mind but still paying the Russians for gas and oil. 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/23/could-a-behavioural-change-campaign-save-energy-and-cut-russian-gas-imports

Poster circa WW2 shown in the article encouraging saving energy for the war effort: 

 

While I wouldn't necessarily call this a win/win for the effort to bolster Ukraine and helping the environment it certainly might be a "less lose/less lose". 

Edited April 24, 2022 by J.C.MacSwell

[MSC]

It would appear Macron won the French elections. So we won't see France getting too friendly with Russia anytime soon with Le Pen defeated again.

On 4/24/2022 at 6:28 AM, J.C.MacSwell said:

While I wouldn't necessarily call this a win/win for the effort to bolster Ukraine and helping the environment it certainly might be a "less lose/less lose". 

Do you mean "less lose/lose less"? 😆 

But you're right, not a win by any means but a ray of hope. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it is so typical of humanity that going green seems like a better option when it is part of a war effort. These damn humans!

Hypothetical; What are the chances, that if Putin were assassinated, even by his own people, a worse replacement comes in, then blames the west for the assassination and goes to war with NATO using that as the justification to try and get China on side?

Edited April 25, 2022 by MSC

[J.C.MacSwell]

10 hours ago, MSC said:

Hypothetical; What are the chances, that if Putin were assassinated, even by his own people, a worse replacement comes in, 

It's certainly possible, but I think very unlikely.

 

10 hours ago, MSC said:

 

Hypothetical; What are the chances, that if Putin were assassinated, even by his own people, a worse replacement comes in, then blames the west for the assassination and goes to war with NATO using that as the justification to try and get China on side?

 I think China might support Russia, but certainly would not care to participate directly.

[beecee]

On 4/21/2022 at 9:44 PM, dimreepr said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/us/politics/russia-putin-missile-test.html

He's determined to win something, and if we can't prize his finger off the trigger we all lose.

This seems to me, much more serious than the Cuban crisis, because he has nothing left to lose and doesn't care about the consequences. 

13 hours ago, MSC said:

Hypothetical; What are the chances, that if Putin were assassinated, even by his own people, a worse replacement comes in, then blames the west for the assassination and goes to war with NATO using that as the justification to try and get China on side?

Anything's possible of course, and none of us can be sure of what the outcome would be. Again, I see someone taking him out as our best chance for ending this conflict.

[Phi for All]

11 hours ago, beecee said:

Anything's possible of course, and none of us can be sure of what the outcome would be. Again, I see someone taking him out as our best chance for ending this conflict.

Assassination is a fascist tool. Be careful of authoritarian responses to authoritarianism. The pigs just love it when you get down in the mud with them.

[StringJunky]

57 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

Assassination is a fascist tool. Be careful of authoritarian responses to authoritarianism. The pigs just love it when you get down in the mud with them.

I agree, but I bet his meeting tables are twice as long now and everything is tasted by someone else first. It must be disconcerting to know the range of options a potential Russian assassin has available....

[geordief]

17 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

I agree, but I bet his meeting tables are twice as long now and everything is tasted by someone else first. It must be disconcerting to know the range of options a potential Russian assassin has available....

I wonder what his list of potential assassin sponsors looks like.

It might  not just be Ukrainians.

 

They may feel that this is his moment of weakness.

 

It would be folly for  Nato countries to touch the idea with a barge pole, although the intelligence services must need to communicate with those so inclined as they may provide human intelligence. 

[MSC]

46 minutes ago, geordief said:

It would be folly for  Nato countries to touch the idea with a barge pole, although the intelligence services must need to communicate with those so inclined as they may provide human intelligence.

That's the thing that worries me; it's not just Putins enemies we have to worry about, but NATOs enemies too, within and without Russia. 

Let's say some group decides to assassinate Putin, seize power in Russia and then uses NATO as a scapegoat. 

As conspiracy theories go, if Putin were assassinated by anyone, there will be countless conspiracy theories trying to explain it. Blaming NATO or the USA specifically is probably one of the least out there versions of the sorts of things people will think and say happened. 

Now, some here may be of the opinion that Putin needs to be made an example of. Which is completely understandable given what we know, but one person's example is another person's martyr. 

Nomatter what you wish to happen, make no mistake, Putin being assassinated would be a very dangerous and uncertain situation that could unfold a number of ways, most of then badly. Better that he is just arrested and charged with war crimes or crimes against the Russian people, than assassinated. Just for the safest approach. 

[beecee]

4 hours ago, Phi for All said:

Assassination is a fascist tool. Be careful of authoritarian responses to authoritarianism. The pigs just love it when you get down in the mud with them.

While that maybe morally correct, perhaps as in the torture thread, it could be seen as the lesser of two evils. How many attempts were mad on Hitler's life? How many possible lives may have been changed if one of them was successful?

[Phi for All]

2 minutes ago, beecee said:

How many attempts were mad on Hitler's life? How many possible lives may have been changed if one of them was successful?

How would an immoral win in Germany have affected the path of the Allied countries? Would the US have stopped with just two atomic bombs in Japan? With worldwide approval of using immoral tactics to win wars, I'd imagine the US would swing towards authoritarianism much sooner than it has. We'd have had a Trump in office instead of an Eisenhower, or a Kennedy, or a Carter. 

There's very little that's moral about warfare, but when you defend your country's borders, you're also defending it's fundamental values.

[beecee]

2 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

How would an immoral win in Germany have affected the path of the Allied countries?

Any win against Germany cannot ever have been seen as immoral. 

[geordief]

44 minutes ago, beecee said:

Any win against Germany cannot ever have been seen as immoral. 

We are not at war with Russia.If we were , the  assassination of its leader would not  as far as I know be a war crime or similar.

 

 

We were at war with Germany and so the assassination  of Hitler would have just been part of the war.

 

As we are not at war with Russia an assassination  attempt by a Nato country  would be both stupid and also  very probably used  as a casus belli (just what we all need)

 

Edited April 26, 2022 by geordief

[J.C.MacSwell]

Another country joins the long list of countries effectively sanctioning Russia's ability to do business with the West...Russia itself!

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/26/energy/poland-russia-gas/index.html

"Russian energy giant Gazprom informed Poland’s state-run gas firm PGNiG said that it will “entirely suspend” gas supplies along the Yamal pipeline starting Wednesday morning, PGNiG said in a statement on Tuesday."

Hopefully the West can mitigate much of Poland's energy needs and this bites Russia in the ass.

[TheVat]

2 hours ago, Phi for All said:

How would an immoral win in Germany have affected the path of the Allied countries? Would the US have stopped with just two atomic bombs in Japan? With worldwide approval of using immoral tactics to win wars, I'd imagine the US would swing towards authoritarianism much sooner than it has. We'd have had a Trump in office instead of an Eisenhower, or a Kennedy, or a Carter. 

There's very little that's moral about warfare, but when you defend your country's borders, you're also defending it's fundamental values.

Yes.  Plus one.  There are good reasons extrajudicial killings (that is, outside of a battlefield and outside of a criminal court) violate international law.  And, as your hypotheticals illustrate, one good reason is based in the Law of Unintended Consequences.  Not only in terms of who fills the power void in that country, but also in the global erosion of liberal democracy, rule of law, and fair play.   You may have understated the chaos and ruin that could come from an open season on heads of state.  

ETA - and, as @MSC noted, there is always the risk of martyrdom being conferred on the victim of the EJK.  There were folks in Lousiana for many years who held the demagogue Huey Long to be a martyr and burnished his halo for decades after.