War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[Trurl]

Ok. I was reading this thread and someone rant on a rant about the left and communism. Maybe this reply can be moved.

But I remember somewhere I say something somewhere else that described the World was safer when there was a balance of power throughout the World.

I speculate that NATO didn’t act in Ukraine because it was the safer think to do.

[SergUpstart]

4 hours ago, Trurl said:

Strategically probably not. Did George W. Bush do this with Husain?

Sure it would be great to give democracy and stop the spread of communism. But wasn’t that be Vietnam?

In Russia in 1999, the expression "we bring you democracy on the wings of Tomahawks" appeared

The well-known Russian journalist Yulia Latynina (she has left Russia for a couple of years and is now actively demonizing Putin on YouTube) saw the main danger to democracy in the fact that in Western countries the proportion of the population who live off the state budget on pensions and benefits is growing. When their share exceeds 51%, democracy will come to an end, she believes. As a solution to this problem, she suggested that the state buy votes from everyone, like in the elections you can get either 5000 (rubles, dollars, euros ...) or a newsletter.

[Phi for All]

9 hours ago, Trurl said:

I speculate that NATO didn’t act in Ukraine because it was the safer think to do.

What?! NATO didn't act in Ukraine because Ukraine isn't part of NATO. You REALLY need to read better sources, because your current ones are letting you down badly.

[SergUpstart]

On 8/3/2022 at 3:38 PM, Bufofrog said:

My  dad use to say a benign dictatorship is the best form of government, but unfortunately there is no way to keep it benign over time.

It's not about softness/rigidity. The main thing here is whose interests the dictator defends, the interests of his people or the interests of international financial capital.

Trump would act more in the interests of the people of the United States, and Alexander Lukashenko clearly acts in the interests of the people of Belarus.

Edited August 4, 2022 by SergUpstart

[iNow]

1 hour ago, SergUpstart said:

The main thing here is whose interests the dictator defends, the interests of his people or the interests of international financial capital.

Blindingly obvious false dichotomy. They defend their OWN interests.

1 hour ago, SergUpstart said:

Trump would act more in the interests of the people of the United States

Wow... that's quite a perspective. Is there no lie so big you won't swallow it?

Never mind. You're welcome to such views. I find them laughable given the actual evidence, but doesn't matter bc they're off topic here. 

[Phi for All]

3 hours ago, SergUpstart said:

Trump would act more in the interests of the people of the United States, and Alexander Lukashenko clearly acts in the interests of the people of Belarus.

That's twice you misspelled "Putin".

[Trurl]

On 8/4/2022 at 9:35 AM, Phi for All said:

What?! NATO didn't act in Ukraine because Ukraine isn't part of NATO. You REALLY need to read better sources, because your current ones are letting you down badly.

That isn’t a source. It is my speculation.

 

I think NATO failed the Ukraines. The U.S. says the Russians are going to invade. We’re are the peace talks? We send weapons and intelligence. Both won’t stop the Russians. We should have flooded the country with humanitarian aid. What is Ukraine’s plan to win this war?

 

Now the woman and children are displaced.

 

I believe for the world to maintain peace both Ukraine and Taiwan would have to be released from NATO in a bargaining agreement.

 

I know the Ukraine and Taiwan are not part of NATO so they only receive aid. But I think the NATO countries know they can’t protect them without disaster. So NATO is forced to slow the progression of war and hope a solution presents itself over time.

 

I stated that the world can be as safe and peaceful without the entire world being a democracy. We can spread democracy peacefully through the people changing their own country. But there  is a fine line between peaceful influence and pissing off Russia or China.

 

Again this is all my speculation. I don’t have any intel other than the media and internet. But this is my view of the positions of Ukraine and Taiwan.

[iNow]

5 minutes ago, Trurl said:

this is my view of the positions of Ukraine and Taiwan

Your view suggests that the best way to stop the bully from stealing your lunch and kicking your ass is to… keep giving him your lunch and not returning any strikes. 
 

5 minutes ago, Trurl said:

there  is a fine line between peaceful influence and pissing off Russia or China.

“It’s her own fault I raped her, your honor. Did you see that skirt she was wearing?”

Edited August 6, 2022 by iNow

[Trurl]

On 8/5/2022 at 11:27 PM, iNow said:

Your view suggests that the best way to stop the bully from stealing your lunch and kicking your ass is to… keep giving him your lunch and not returning any strikes. 

iNow, I know it seems link a cowardly response. I am just saying NATO should have done more before it escalated. Sometimes you can’t just talk, you have to back it up. Well the Ukraine has backed it up and stood up to the bully.

 

But how can NATO help them? I ask that question because it is this thread’s question? I don’t know what you can do but talk to the other side.

 

Did you study the Vietnam War in high school? Both sides blew each other up until the U.S. left. Now we’re friends. They don’t teach the part on how peace happened. Could it all just have been avoided?

[iNow]

41 minutes ago, Trurl said:

NATO should have done more before it escalated

Like what? Even to this day, Ukraine isn’t part of NATO. On another note, Ukraine isn’t part of Zimbabwe. Do you equally think Zimbabwe should’ve done more to stop Putin from his illegal action on sovereign lands?

 

41 minutes ago, Trurl said:

how can NATO help them? I ask that question because it is this thread’s question?

It’s actually not. Do you know how I know? Because I’m the one who created it. 

41 minutes ago, Trurl said:

Could it all just have been avoided?

Of course. Putin could’ve chosen NOT to send his troops and his tanks and his airplanes to kill Ukrainians and their children and steal their land. In much the same way, you could choose to use a normal font size when posting. 

Edited August 8, 2022 by iNow

[Sensei]

An attack on Taiwan would be China committing suicide.. It is the largest net importer of food, oil and IP..

"China is already the world's largest importer of food. Since 2014, the country's grain imports have remained above 100 million tonnes. It imported 115.1 million tonnes of grain during the first 10 months of 2020, up 28.5 per cent from a year earlier."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_imports

 

[geordief]

This report,as referenced on BBC and Reuters 

https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/in-the-news/exclusive-russian-weapons-ukraine-powered-hundreds-western-parts-report-says

 

is saying there is a window to cut off the export of high tech parts to the Russian   war machine

It says the loopholes need to be fixed now.

[iNow]

The US is sending now another BILLION dollars in military aid to Ukraine, bringing the total to $9B. 

Meanwhile, China continued exercises off Taiwanese waters and there’s more movement there than has been for decades. 

[StringJunky]

50 minutes ago, iNow said:

The US is sending now another BILLION dollars in military aid to Ukraine, bringing the total to $9B. 

Meanwhile, China continued exercises off Taiwanese waters and there’s more movement there than has been for decades. 

It seems that China is trying to move on Taiwan whilst they think the US is tied up with Ukraine. 

[iNow]

23 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

It seems that China is trying to move on Taiwan whilst they think the US is tied up with Ukraine. 

A great reshuffling is happening. What that ultimately means will be for historians to decide. 

[MigL]

So far the situation in the waters around Taiwan is all bluster.
The number of intrusions into Taiwan's territorial waters and warning zones are worrying, however, as there is no way to distinguish an actual attack from just  another intrusion.
I sure hope that Taiwan's missile defense systems are 'locking on' to every single intrusion into their airspace and territorial waters, as an indication to the PLA that they could, if they so choose, take their assets out.

I remember in the run up to the 1996 Taiwan Presidential elections, the PRC similarly got their panties in a knot, and started firing missiles into Taiwan's waters.
President Clinton sent the 7th carrier group ( Nimitz ) to sail through the strait of Taiwan, along with the 5th carrier group ( Independence ) as back up.

I don't think anything of the sort will be tried this time as China has grown much more bold, if not more powerful militarily. But I'm sure a couple of US carrier battle groups are on their way to the area, and US Air Bases in Okinawa and others in the west pacific are on alert.

Edited August 9, 2022 by MigL

[dimreepr]

10 hours ago, MigL said:

So far the situation in the waters around Taiwan is all bluster.

Seems to me like it's part of the negotiation, we all know that they intend to aquire Taiwan and probably will; the only variable is the price they're willing to pay. 

[geordief]

3 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Seems to me like it's part of the negotiation, we all know that they intend to aquire Taiwan and probably will; the only variable is the price they're willing to pay. 

For a totalitarian regime the price is immaterial. 

No one is talking about  imperial overreach. Does it come into play?(in theory Taiwan would presumably like to take over the mainland  since there was no official end to the Chinese civil war.

How long is the Communist Party of Chima going to maintain the allegiance of the population?

 

Is that (those) populations naturally authoritarian  or ate they just holding their tongues for now?

[dimreepr]

3 minutes ago, geordief said:

For a totalitarian regime the price is immaterial.

The price is always relevant, it's the currency that's immaterial...

[geordief]

3 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

The price is always relevant, it's the currency that's immaterial...

If others pay neither matter. 

[dimreepr]

2 minutes ago, geordief said:

If others pay neither matter. 

which side does that apply to more?

[geordief]

8 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

which side does that apply to more?

Not going  down the whataboutery  road.

[MigL]

70-80 000 Russian soldiers dead by latest estimates.
Mostly from rural areas of Russia, where there is little opportunity; where life is hard, and death comes easy.
Nobody sems to care about these kids.

But V Putin's forces must need to replenish those dead soldiers if he wants to hold, or seize more,  parts of Ukraine.
The problem is he cannot order a General Mobilization, as that would mean conscription for everyone.
And when the more affluent Russians from St. Petersburg and Moscow see their kids going off to Ukraine for the 'Special Operation', and not coming back, there's going to be some explaining to do.

[StringJunky]

4 hours ago, MigL said:

70-80 000 Russian soldiers dead by latest estimates.
Mostly from rural areas of Russia, where there is little opportunity; where life is hard, and death comes easy.
Nobody sems to care about these kids.

But V Putin's forces must need to replenish those dead soldiers if he wants to hold, or seize more,  parts of Ukraine.
The problem is he cannot order a General Mobilization, as that would mean conscription for everyone.
And when the more affluent Russians from St. Petersburg and Moscow see their kids going off to Ukraine for the 'Special Operation', and not coming back, there's going to be some explaining to do.

Only because news of their deaths is tightly controlled and kept fragmented so that no one can see the whole picture. I'm sure if the news was distributed Western-style, there would be wider outrage and social unrest.

Edited August 10, 2022 by StringJunky

[MigL]

Exactly my view Stringy.
It is much easier to control the 'news' in distant parts of rural Russia, but if deaths from the affluent metropolitan western areas of Russia started to mount, controlling the news would become much more difficult.