War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[geordief]

I am wondering about this supposed spat btw  Wagner and the Russian army

 

" Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has complained of a lack of ammunition, saying it could be "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64859780

Smoke and mirrors or are we looking forward to a Russian retreat quite soon?

Edited March 6, 2023 by geordief

[J.C.MacSwell]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

He was from the beginning recruiting in provinces where poverty is high.  Young men in poor families see fewer options.  

I suspect their families have much less influence at the Kremlin as well, and they probably have much less access to non Russian controlled information. Fits nicely into Putin's playbook. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

I can sympathize with the apparent helplessness felt by the Russian families, but I would have more respect as well as sympathy for them if they condemned the Russian invasion rather than suggest it be done in a different manner.

“They are prepared to serve their homeland but according to the specialization they’ve trained for, not as stormtroopers. We ask that you pull back our guys from the line of contact and provide the artillerymen with artillery and ammunition.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/12/europe/russia-mobilization-putin-protest-wives-mothers-intl-hnk/index.html

[Sensei]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

I can sympathize with the apparent helplessness felt by the Russian families, but I would have more respect as well as sympathy for them if they condemned the Russian invasion rather than suggest it be done in a different manner.

..had they done so, they would have been imprisoned for 15 years in a gulag in Siberia..

In modern Russia, if someone has a blue T-shirt and yellow pants, goes to jail..

On 3/6/2023 at 5:40 PM, J.C.MacSwell said:

I suspect their families have much less influence at the Kremlin as well, and they probably have much less access to non Russian controlled information. Fits nicely into Putin's playbook. 

..therefore, the key would be to reach out to them in such a way that they are well informed..

 

[MonDie]

On 2/22/2023 at 4:38 PM, TheVat said:

 

Sociopath and psychopath are both used to refer to what's clinically known as ASPD, or antisocial personality disorder.  What's disturbing is that the horrible things that happen in war are mostly done by ordinary people who are not in the 1-2% of the population estimated to have ASPD.  Plain old human nature, conditioned in a certain way, can wreak atrocities.

Further commenting on this careless decontextualizing of categories.  The personality disorders framework can type the pathology where pathology has presented, but not normal individuals like the five-factor model does.  To type normal personalities, lowering the thresholds could impair the fitness of the model from which these categories arise. For example, maybe a normal-range person meets multiple criteria sets simultaneously, but maybe those "exclusion criteria" were meant to cancel eachother out in cases of extreme imbalance.

Psychopathic, narcissistic, and antisocial personalities shared antagonism (reverse-Agreeableness) and grandiosity (reverse-honesty-humility).  Antagonism: unsympathetic, unsharing, and opaque, and usually grandiose.  Grandiosity: attention-seeking, entitled greed, and instrumental exploitation.  The low consientiousness that distinguishes psychopathy and antisocial personality particularly is impulsive, improper, reactive, and over-stimulating.

On 2/22/2023 at 1:25 PM, J.C.MacSwell said:

It would be hilarious if not so tragic for both Ukrainians and the Russians they are responsible for.

On 2/22/2023 at 5:55 PM, iNow said:

Once you've convinced people to believe in absurdities it's not hard getting them next to commit atrocities. 

'Grandiosity' is mania, but I lack a better term.

Obviously tendencies can be amplified or suppressed, like through feedback, like a game that (is supposed to) keeps you alive.

blah... groggy

[Sensei]

Degenerates from army industry are like "on safari" (a quote from "The Mayor of Kingstown"), on either side of this equation.. don't be happy about the extra money you make..

 

[J.C.MacSwell]

Given that Wagner is a"for profit" business, are their soldiers more of a liability dead or wounded to the point of not ever being able to fight again? Are they considered veterans of the same standing as other Russian troops, or are they Wagner's "problem", or in fact pretty much their own problem?

Also would be interesting to know how they get paid, both the soldiers and Wagner itself, and with what incentives.

I think the answers might reflect on the "meat grinder" tactics of Wagner, and how long they may remain significant to Russia's war.

Obviously no one apparently cares much about them as humans, least of all Putin.

Edited May 11, 2023 by J.C.MacSwell

[CharonY]

The organization of the Wagner group is quite muddled and it appears that at least some speculate that it is in fact a branch of the Russian military. At least there are significant dependencies.

Moreover, the group originally had a small core (a few thousands, most likely veterans) but reportedly are now being bolstered by convicts and contractors. That obviously is unlikely to happen if it was fully run as an independent company and makes it more likely that they are at least partially under governmental control.

It is more than likely that the convicts at least are considered expendable. 

 

 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

 

[StringJunky]

3 hours ago, CharonY said:

It is more than likely that the convicts at least are considered expendable. 

 

 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

 

The convicts have been used for sacrificial, attritional WW1-style seige tactics. Five or six at a time, used as canaries, to pinpoint Ukrainian positions when they return fire. My main source for the details is the US ISoW. It's obviously pro-NATO, but it seems reasonably consistent. Moscow Times as well to try and get some insight from the pro-Democracy Russian side.

Edited May 11, 2023 by StringJunky

[geordief]

10 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

The convicts have been used for sacrificial, attritional WW1-style seige tactics. Five or six at a time, used as canaries, to pinpoint Ukrainian positions when they return fire. My main source for the details is the US ISoW. It's obviously pro-NATO, but it seems reasonably consistent. Moscow Times as well to try and get some insight from the pro-Democracy Russian side.

I wonder how they tricked the convicts into enlisting.

Has the supply of convicts dried up bc they now know how they are being used?

[StringJunky]

53 minutes ago, geordief said:

I wonder how they tricked the convicts into enlisting.

Has the supply of convicts dried up bc they now know how they are being used?

I think they promised a clean charge sheet and other benefits. Prison life is very hard there, apparently.

[CharonY]

34 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

I think they promised a clean charge sheet and other benefits. Prison life is very hard there, apparently.

I have also read reports that HIV positive inmates were promised antivirals, if they enlist. So, not a huge surprised if they are used as cannonfodder, all things considered.

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, CharonY said:

I have also read reports that HIV positive inmates were promised antivirals, if they enlist. So, not a huge surprised if they are used as cannonfodder, all things considered.

Parole is strategically rationed as well.

Quote

Russian prisoners are increasingly denied parole amid efforts by the Wagner mercenary group and later the Defense Ministry to recruit convicts for the war in Ukraine, the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper reported Thursday.

Only 23,000 requests for conditional early release (CER) were granted in 2022 out of nearly 59,000 requests reviewed by courts, according to judicial statistics from the Russian Supreme Court cited by Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

"Over 12,000 requests were withdrawn, transferred to another jurisdiction or discontinued," the report from the Supreme Court said.

Only 39% of prisoners who applied for CER were granted it in 2022, one of the lowest rates in two decades of record-keeping. 

This compares to 80-90% of such requests granted in 2004-2005 and 57% of requests granted in 2010.

The courts’ decisions to deny CER were motivated by convicts’ failure to demonstrate good behavior or lack of sufficient encouragement from prison staff, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

"The absence of criteria for determining the degree of a convict’s reform allows the courts and correctional institutions to abuse individuals’ right to CER," Yekaterina Tyutyunnikova, a lawyer at the CentryurService firm, told the newspaper.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/11/russian-prisoners-increasingly-denied-parole-amid-war-recruitment-efforts-a81099

 

[iNow]

War slaves 

[StringJunky]

Prighozin has been a useful indicator regarding overall Russian infantry morale. 

Do people think China and Russia place too much confidence in being the biggest countries geographically, and having a much larger armed conscription ability? I don't think nuclear capability comes into it either because everyone is too close... these are not scalpels. All combatants desire to control the areas likely to be nuked. I quote the immortal Spock: "It's not logical, Captain..."

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by StringJunky

[DimaMazin]

On 5/12/2023 at 4:54 AM, iNow said:

War slaves 

Merkel was supporting Putin. Why Russian troops should not do the same at their level?

[iNow]

2 hours ago, DimaMazin said:

Merkel was supporting Putin.

You’re being lied to, brother… unless it is you intentionally lying to others. You should stop doing that.

 

2 hours ago, DimaMazin said:

Why Russian troops should not do the same at their level?

Meaningless question since the German army aren’t throwing unwilling troops and prisoners into killing neighboring citizens like worthless cannon fodder. 

[MigL]

3 hours ago, iNow said:

throwing unwilling troops and prisoners into killing neighboring citizens like worthless cannon fodder. 

And after a year and a half of this invasion/destruction of a sovereign country, some people are still bending over backwards to excuse V Putin's aggression.

'Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious."
Oscar Wilde

[CharonY]

9 hours ago, iNow said:

You’re being lied to, brother… unless it is you intentionally lying to others. You should stop doing that.

 

Meaningless question since the German army aren’t throwing unwilling troops and prisoners into killing neighboring citizens like worthless cannon fodder. 

I don't get why they would mention Merkel? The relationship between her and Putin was notoriously tense. The only think I could think of is that her government opposed NATO membership for Ukraine to prevent escalation in 2008 (and considering the political instability in Ukraine at that time, one could argue either way, I guess).

Fun Merkel quote on Putin:

Quote

I understand why he has to do this — to prove he’s a man. He’s afraid of his own weakness. Russia has nothing, no successful politics or economy. All they have is this.”

That was following an incidence where Putin allegedly let his dog in, as Merkel was known to be afraid of dogs.

Quote

“No other politicians on the global stage have been so good at getting on badly over such a long time as these two,” wrote Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper in an article before Friday’s summit.

Trump and many GOP cronies, on the other hand...

[DimaMazin]

11 hours ago, CharonY said:

I don't get why they would mention Merkel?

Did you mean they are Ukrainians? Merkel replaced Budapest Memorandum by Minsk agreements. She explained that Russia is not the side of the conflict therefore France and Germany should solve the problem instead of USA and UK. Obama supported Merkel.Didn't it?

[DimaMazin]

23 hours ago, iNow said:

Meaningless question since the German army aren’t throwing unwilling troops and prisoners into killing neighboring citizens like worthless cannon fodder. 

Merkel destroyed German army therefore it cannot to protect Germany.

[MigL]

11 hours ago, DimaMazin said:

Merkel destroyed German army therefore it cannot to protect Germany.

You've got to be kidding.
If Russia had attacked Germany the front lines would be somewhere East of the Urals, and Russia would be begging for peace.

[DimaMazin]

12 hours ago, MigL said:

You've got to be kidding.
If Russia had attacked Germany the front lines would be somewhere East of the Urals, and Russia would be begging for peace.

Only due to Ukraine and NATO.

[dimreepr]

2 hours ago, DimaMazin said:

Only due to Ukraine and NATO.

Do you actually believe what you've written in this thread?

I can understand the excuse, if you were in Putin's pocket, but what do you have to gain from vomiting up this bullshit; I hate being sick at the best of times, but if it tasted of shit as well, then I gots to get paid... 🤢 🤑

[Genady]

36 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Do you actually believe what you've written in this thread?

I can understand the excuse, if you were in Putin's pocket, but what do you have to gain from vomiting up this bullshit; I hate being sick at the best of times, but if it tasted of shit as well, then I gots to get paid... 🤢 🤑

Look at the bright side.

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