War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[mistermack]

5 minutes ago, Sensei said:

..I have not seen Ukrainians with flowers greeting V.V.P. soldiers, either in February 2022 or now..

I didn't see that in Crimea, but the union with Russia got support in the high nineties percent, and that was verified by western polling agencies.

[studiot]

The question of 'who does the Ukraine naturally/historically belong to ?' is quite interesting and may be compared to the question

'who does Poland naturally/historically belong to ?'

 

[Steve81]

5 minutes ago, studiot said:

The question of 'who does the Ukraine naturally/historically belong to ?' is quite interesting and may be compared to the question

'who does Poland naturally/historically belong to ?'

 

From a practical perspective, it belongs to the people actually living there, and who have lived there for generations.

[mistermack]

15 minutes ago, studiot said:

'who does Poland naturally/historically belong to ?'

So who does Israel belong to ?

[Genady]

Russia should be divided between Norway and Mongolia.

[TheVat]

1 hour ago, mistermack said:

Highly suspicious. You have tightly divided loyalties, then a coup, and then a landslide!! In a place as corrupt as Ukraine, why would you expect anything else? But even if it was legit, it wouldn't necessarily indicate a general change of historical loyalties, just dissatisfaction with the current guy on offer.

 

More recent opinion surveys suggest support for Ukrainian independence has only grown.

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-unity-identity-poll-russian-invasion/32001348.html#:~:text=As many as 96 percent,declare a “good” one.

As many as 96 percent of Ukrainians support their country joining the European Union, and 91 percent now favor joining NATO. Some 92 percent profess a “bad” attitude toward Russia, while only 2 percent declare a “good” one.

Hrushetskiy believes these changes will prove enduring because unity around them has been developing gradually since Ukraine gained independence from Soviet rule in 1991. A significant increase in support for the pro-European and transatlantic geopolitical orientation of the country -- and a corresponding decline of positive sentiment toward Russia – were notable features of the 2004-05 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, he noted.
 

[CharonY]

Also, polls just before the invasion:

Quote

Perhaps unsurprisingly, most people in Ukraine disagree with the use of force against them. Seven out of 10 respondents there said it would be wrong for Russia to use military force to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO (70%) or to reunite the two countries (73%).

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/02/europe/russia-ukraine-crisis-poll-intl/index.html

 

Given the committed atrocities against Ukrainian civilians it is of little surprise that the support for NATO has only grown. 

[mistermack]

13 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Hrushetskiy believes

I have no idea what the current opinion is in Ukraine. And I still don't. But if my life and freedom depended on my expressed preferences, I would keep my mouth shut. 

[toucana]

The TASS news agency has just reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin the leader of the Wagner Group was one of 10 people killed when a private jet crashed near the Tver Region in Russia while on a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-66599774

Presumably it was logistically simpler than trying to position him next to an open window.

[Genady]

6 minutes ago, toucana said:

Presumably it was logistically simpler than trying to position him next to an open window.

LOL

Quote

A post by Grey Zone, a Wagner-connected social media channel, claimed that Russian anti-aircraft defences had shot down the plane in the Tver region near the village of Kuzhenkino. It said that residents heard “two bursts of characteristic air defence fire” before the fall of the plane, “and this is confirmed by inversion traces in the sky in one of the videos”, it said, adding that the information was preliminary.

Yevgeny Prigozhin in fatal plane crash, Russian officials say | Financial Times (ft.com)

[toucana]

An amateur video posted on YT shows the plane falling to the ground. The Russian commentary by a woman - who  apparently thought it was  a drone being taken out by local air defences - suggests that the Embraer jet was hit by two SAM missiles.

 

[iNow]

I’m shocked!!!  … that it took this long to happen 

[TheVat]

1 hour ago, mistermack said:

I have no idea what the current opinion is in Ukraine. And I still don't. But if my life and freedom depended on my expressed preferences, I would keep my mouth shut. 

You seem to have a two-tiered system for evaluation of polling results.  Ohe tier is acceptance of polls that are pro-Russian hegemony, the other tier is dismissing polls that are pro-Ukrainian sovereignty and NATO membership, usually implying they were conducted at gunpoint (metaphorically, anyway).  And the poll you mainly reference was only Crimeans IIRC, and done while it was already under Russian control.  Your system seems not too objective.

11 minutes ago, iNow said:

I’m shocked!!!  … that it took this long to happen 

Russians report the pilot seemed very depressed and said things to copilot like, "Going to find me a couple of SAMs and dive into them if you don't stop popping your gum."

[Sensei]

28 minutes ago, iNow said:

I’m shocked!!!  … that it took this long to happen 

On one (crazy) bookmaking website a month ago I saw bets "how long will Prigozin live. Bet now"..

[mistermack]

58 minutes ago, TheVat said:

You seem to have a two-tiered system for evaluation of polling results.  Ohe tier is acceptance of polls that are pro-Russian hegemony, the other tier is dismissing polls that are pro-Ukrainian sovereignty and NATO membership, usually implying they were conducted at gunpoint (metaphorically, anyway).  And the poll you mainly reference was only Crimeans IIRC, and done while it was already under Russian control.  Your system seems not too objective.

From memory, the Crimean vote was a referendum, not an opinion poll. And the turnout was about ninety percent, the yes vote was in the high nineties, and the result was monitored and called a genuine result by one of the biggest polling organisations in the USA. I did link all that originally, so I'm not going to look it up again. Without unbiased oversight, I wouldn't value any of the poll results, except that in the pre-war years, the fact that control went backwards and forwards would indicate some sort of even split. 

Before the Crimean referendum, all of the (pretty biased) western media were saying it would be a huge majority for joining Russia, and nobody in the western media was expressing surprise or calling foul after it, so it seemed to be common knowledge that Crimea was staunchly Russian-leaning.

Actually, the removal of the Crimean voting bloc probably tipped the balance a bit towards the west, for the rest of Ukraine. Maybe not enough for landslides, but not negligible.

1 hour ago, iNow said:

I’m shocked!!!  … that it took this long to happen

I'm wondering how the did it. It was his own plane, run by his own organisation. Maybe a strong whiff of novichock after the fire? But it's not confirmed anyway. Maybe he has faked his death and done a runner. 

[iNow]

59 minutes ago, mistermack said:

I'm wondering how the did it. It was his own plane, run by his own organisation.

The leader of the air force, a General, who was close to Prigozhin was dismissed by Putin a day or 2 ago. There were 3 pilots on the plane, so incapacitated pilot isn't likely. Officials in the area confirmed that Prigozhin was on the manifest, and Wagner commanders confirmed he (and his top Lieutenant) were both on the plane that went down. 

According to PBS Newshour, an image posted by a pro-Wagner social media account showing burning wreckage, a partial tail number matching a jet previously used by Prigozhin could be seen.

1 hour ago, mistermack said:

Maybe he has faked his death and done a runner. 

Certainly possible. Multiple individuals in the country have changed their names to Yevgeniy Prigozhin to help obfuscate his travels, and flight data suggests he boarded a private plane in Moscow Wednesday but the transponder was cut only minutes later. So... maybe?

However, my take? He was on a plane and that plane got shot down by a missile (given the way it fell out of the sky suggested an explosion). 

[StringJunky]

3 minutes ago, iNow said:

The leader of the air force, a General, who was close to Prigozhin was dismissed by Putin a day or 2 ago. There were 3 pilots on the plane, so incapacitated pilot isn't likely. Officials in the area confirmed that Prigozhin was on the manifest, and Wagner commanders confirmed he (and his top Lieutenant) were both on the plane that went down. 

According to PBS Newshour, an image posted by a pro-Wagner social media account showing burning wreckage, a partial tail number matching a jet previously used by Prigozhin could be seen.

Certainly possible. Multiple individuals in the country have changed their names to Yevgeniy Prigozhin to help obfuscate his travels, and flight data suggests he boarded a private plane in Moscow Wednesday but the transponder was cut only minutes later. So... maybe?

However, my take? He was on a plane and that plane got shot down by a missile (given the way it fell out of the sky suggested an explosion). 

Surovikin being almost simultaneously dismissed makes it look like his was all meant to be, to me.

[mistermack]

28 minutes ago, iNow said:

However, my take? He was on a plane and that plane got shot down by a missile (given the way it fell out of the sky suggested an explosion).

That's what I thought. Pretty ruthless to kill all aboard, but not untypical. 

I've still got my suspicions about the Princess Diana crash. 

[iNow]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

Surovikin being almost simultaneously dismissed makes it look like his was all meant to be, to me.

Likewise here. That’s why I included that point and you received it as I did. 

[StringJunky]

6 minutes ago, iNow said:

Likewise here. That’s why I included that point and you received it as I did. 

They've got their public's eyes and ears blocked, so they don't have to cover up their tracks too well.

Edited August 23, 2023 by StringJunky

[iNow]

1 minute ago, StringJunky said:

They've got their public's eyes and ears blocked, so they don't have to cover up their tracks too much.

I’d go so far as to say Putin actively wants extra attention on this, and that if it was in fact a missile strike that reminds folks that he has weapons available that mercenary groups like Wagner lack… it’s a reassertion of power… overdone and amplified precisely because he’s become so weak.  

[StringJunky]

4 minutes ago, iNow said:

I’d go so far as to say Putin actively wants extra attention on this, and that if it was in fact a missile strike that reminds folks that he has weapons available that mercenary groups like Wagner lack… it’s a reassertion of power… overdone and amplified precisely because he’s become so weak.  

Yes, he needs to be figuratively louder to be heard. Proper Mafia stuff this is. 'Mafia' is a word that comes up a lot in my mind when thinking about the level of politics in that region of the world.

Edited August 23, 2023 by StringJunky

[iNow]

39 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

'Mafia' is a word that comes up a lot in my mind when thinking about the level of politics in that region of the world.

In many/most regions of the world these days...

[TheVat]

51 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Yes, he needs to be figuratively louder to be heard. Proper Mafia stuff this is. 'Mafia' is a word that comes up a lot in my mind when thinking about the level of politics in that region of the world.

Seems like it.  Putin grew up in street gangs in the postwar ruins of Leningrad, so that way of thinking about power is natural to him.  

3 hours ago, mistermack said:

From memory, the Crimean vote was a referendum, not an opinion poll. And the turnout was about ninety percent, the yes vote was in the high nineties, and the result was monitored and called a genuine result by one of the biggest polling organisations in the USA. I did link all that originally, so I'm not going to look it up again. Without unbiased oversight, I wouldn't value any of the poll results, except that in the pre-war years, the fact that control went backwards and forwards would indicate some sort of even split. 

I think we're both experiencing citation fatigue, neither wants to dive deep for previously posted poll data, so for now I'm just saying we see the trend differently. Slainte. 

[mistermack]

3 hours ago, StringJunky said:

'Mafia' is a word that comes up a lot in my mind when thinking about the level of politics in that region of the world.

Our own good friends and allies are not too different. The world of elite golf is now owned and run by a man who had a journalist killed and chopped up into pieces not too long ago. I believe he's getting a state visit here soon? The only difference is that Putin doesn't really care who knows.