War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[MSC]

12 minutes ago, TheVat said:

These are some very optimistic Belarusians.   It's worth asking if Putin would do something that we all regret if faced with any chance of losing Belarus.

It is worth asking. I don't think he would fall back on a nuclear option or escalate conflicts if he lost the support of Belarus. Ultimately putin wants to desperately cling to power in Russia. He does not want to lose it. So long as his life and power in Russia are not in the crosshairs, he'll practice tactical self restraint. He will still draw up plans to undo or mitigate the loss for sure. But losing Belarus will not be the backed into a corner moment for Putin that we all fear. It will stress him out and make him sweat and that could be dangerous for a whole lot of reasons. 

I don't even think he'd do it if NATO did directly intervene in Ukraine either. I think he's bluffing. He's not stupid. He knows using the nuclear option is also a threat to his life and power. I don't think he'll use it until he is convinced that he is imminently about to lose his grip on Russia and all of the protection from his enemies that gives him. Most leaders know that using nuclear weapons is only ever going to invite those same weapons being used in retribution. No winners, just losers. This mentality is what makes Putin so dangerous. If he starts to lose a game, he'll freak out and flip the table over so nobody gets to play, win or punish him for losing. 

The nuclear option is not about winning. It is about mutually assured destruction. If I go, you go. 

However, if Russia has the technology to effectively defend itself from multiple nuclear attacks, then I'm really not sure of anything I have just said. 

1 hour ago, SergUpstart said:

Putin also banned casinos and slot machines. So he has serious successes in the fight against gambling addiction.

Not really. Now those industries will have just went underground and are no longer paying any taxes and cannot be regulated at all. Taxes that could have funded addiction therapy programs. 

Would have just been better to pass more regulations for those businesses to have maximum loss limits and other methods of protecting addicts. 

There may be less drunks or gambling addicts in public, but behind closed doors, who can say? More alcohol is being bought per capita today than during the Soviet era. If I assume that you are correct, and that there are less drunks in public spaces, then I can only conclude that more alcohol is being either consumed at home or stockpiled. I lean more towards the former rather than the latter.

[beecee]

Russian forces on Thursday confiscated 14 tons of humanitarian aid from buses bound for Melitopol in southern Ukraine. What a bunch of complete arseholes they be!  Worthwhile  noting that it is always legal to refuse to carry out a warcrime.

The aid was being transported on 12 buses bound for Melitopol in southern Ukraine, said Vereshchuk.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-official-russians-are-raiding-convoys-of-humanitarian-aid-2022-4

https://www.businessinsider.com/red-cross-civilian-evacuation-operation-besieged-mariupol-ukraine-fails-russia-2022-4?inline-endstory-related-recommendations=

International Red Cross convoy forced to turn back after failed attempt to evacuate Ukrainians trapped in Russia's siege of Mariupol

[MSC]

1 minute ago, beecee said:

Russian forces on Thursday confiscated 14 tons of humanitarian aid from buses bound for Melitopol in southern Ukraine. What a bunch of complete arseholes they be!  Worthwhile  noting that it is always legal to refuse to carry out a warcrime.

The aid was being transported on 12 buses bound for Melitopol in southern Ukraine, said Vereshchuk.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-official-russians-are-raiding-convoys-of-humanitarian-aid-2022-4

Fucking hell! That's a new low. Although now that I think about it, I do remember reading a prediction that this would come down to attrition. Russians are falling back on the age old strategy of punishing civilians with starvation in the hopes of forcing the leadership to surrender. 😕 or even forcing the civilians to usurp the leadership and surrendering just for food.

A small silver lining, although I'm not sure if it has been confirmed, is that a number of the soldiers in the Russian Army are sabotaging their own equipment and vehicles in an attempt to stay out of the fighting. 

I'm beginning to wonder if the Ukrainians ought to set up loudspeakers and broadcasting systems to blast the Russian army with the facts of the situation across the entire warfront and on Putins regime. Taking advantage of their distance from the propaganda bubble back in Russia could cause desertion and disobedience among their ranks to increase. I can't really say how effective it would be but might be worth a shot.

[J.C.MacSwell]

Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot in Russia

Ukraine attack on Russian soil? Seems pretty unacceptable, given that some of that fuel going to fuel Russian tanks and armoured vehicles might also have been used for peaceful Russian purposes. (not to imply that Russia is on anything but a peace mission in Ukraine)

"Certainly, this is not something that can be perceived as creating comfortable conditions for the continuation of the talks," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, five weeks after Moscow began sending upwards of 150,000 of its own troops across Ukraine's border.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-april1-2022-1.6404889

Russia's stance. It would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic.

[iNow]

Russia is acting like an older sibling who grabs the younger siblings arm, starts smacking them across the head with their own arm, then keeps repeating, "Stop hitting yourself... stop hitting yourself... stop hitting yourself." 

[geordief]

59 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot in Russia

Ukraine attack on Russian soil? Seems pretty unacceptable, given that some of that fuel going to fuel Russian tanks and armoured vehicles might also have been used for peaceful Russian purposes. (not to imply that Russia is on anything but a peace mission in Ukraine)

"Certainly, this is not something that can be perceived as creating comfortable conditions for the continuation of the talks," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, five weeks after Moscow began sending upwards of 150,000 of its own troops across Ukraine's border.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-april1-2022-1.6404889

Russia's stance. It would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic.

At least the Russian  expeditionary  force had their papers in order when they crossed over the border.

 

Apparently  the Ukranians  are denying responsibility....(as of course do the Russians-for everything)

 

Oh ,this was a nice story about  that long convoy that never made it to Kiev(how true I have little idea)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

Edited April 2, 2022 by geordief

[beecee]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/02/russia-ukraine-war-latest-russian-troop-withdrawal-noticeable-says-zelenskiy-us-gives-kyiv-300m-more-in-live

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian troops retake entire Kyiv region as evidence emerges of execution of civilians – live

Deputy defence minister says territory is ‘liberated from the invader’ as disturbing images in Bucha show bodies had been bound and hooded

Children used as human shields, say reports

‘It is a war crime’: neighbours shot dead trying to evacuate

UK prevents use of private jet linked to Russian oligarchs

Ukrainian photographer Maksim Levin killed while covering war

British volunteers tell why they’re fighting for Ukraine

 

Devastating reports have been coming out of the cities in the Kyiv region that were retaken by Ukrainian forces: bodies in the streets. Destruction. Reports of Russian troops using children as shields.

Anatoly Fedoruk, mayor of Bucha, told AFP that the city has already buried 280 people in a mass grave. Corpses littered the streets, he said, some as young as 14 years old. “All these people were shot, killed, in the back of the head,” Fedoruk said.

Many of the bodies had white bandages on them “to show that they were unarmed,” he said.

In the village of Novyi Bykiv, about 100 miles north of Kyiv, coaches of children were said to have been placed in front of tanks. “Cases of using children as cover are recorded in Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia oblasts [regions],” said Lyudmila Denisova, Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman.

Read more here:

[Moontanman]

Putin is a loose cannon, I am still waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

[beecee]

1 minute ago, Moontanman said:

Putin is a loose cannon, I am still waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

I mentioned it earlier in the thread, perhaps the best solution, is for a Russian/s to take matters into their own hands and take him out, before any chances of the unthinkable happening. 

[MSC]

1 hour ago, beecee said:

I mentioned it earlier in the thread, perhaps the best solution, is for a Russian/s to take matters into their own hands and take him out, before any chances of the unthinkable happening. 

Agreed. Something we can both agree on. +1

On the slightly better news, reports are coming in that the Russian Army has formally given back control of the Chernobyl facilities to Ukraine and the troops that were stationed there and nearby are heading back to Belarus.... wonder how many of them need treatment for radiation poisoning? These are early stage reports coming from the Ukrainian government and the USA so there is a small chance this may not be the case or it may be a Russian ruse.

That being said; Removing Putin would leave a power vacuum, dangerous for its own reasons but at this point the devil we know is still the devil.

[J.C.MacSwell]

It will be interesting to see how PM Viktor "Viktator" Orban does in the Hungarian Election tomorrow against a coalition of parties trying to oust him. He is considered the closest to Putin of all Nato and European Union leaders, and Hungary has done the least to support Ukraine's war efforts. (They have taken in a lot of refugees)

"Orbán has said Hungary will not send weapons to Ukraine, or allow shipments from other countries to transit through its territory. 

While analysts say his stance has left him more isolated from Western leaders, including some of the country's strongest allies like Poland and the Czech Republic, the war has allowed him to craft a campaign message for his domestic audience. "

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hungary-orban-election-putin-1.6405998

He claims he's the only one that will keep them out of the war and his opposition says he's the choice for Russia and they for Europe.

Edited April 2, 2022 by J.C.MacSwell

[mistermack]

Some hits and misses from earlier posts. ( admittedly shots in the dark )

On 2/22/2022 at 3:22 AM, iNow said:

If his troops take Kiev, which they absolutely can do probably within less than a day or 2 given their size and capabilities and backend support from cyber teams, then Ukraine for all intents and purposes will be absorbed as part of Russia effective immediately. 

Alex's map below is eerily accurate. Has he got connections ?

On 2/22/2022 at 11:56 AM, Alex_Krycek said:

 

And on Feb 28 I posted "And the fall in the Rouble might be a problem for the Russian economy, but it's also a real oportunity for Russia to buy back it's own currency at a knockdown price. I'm not sure who wins in that situation."

And here's todays clip of the Ruble's fortunes. It's almost back to it's value from a year ago. If Putin had bought back Rubles as I posted, he'd have made a massive 50 to 60 %. Maybe they did. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[iNow]

I still think Russia will ultimately take Kyiv. I’m not the only one surprised that they have taken so long / that Ukraine has fought so well. 

[mistermack]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

I still think Russia will ultimately take Kyiv.

I've got my doubts. I don't think Putin has the stomach for the total destruction of the capital. I wouldn't, in his shoes. 

I'm amazed and confused by the Russian tactics. I would have ignored the east, and taken the western borders, in a pincer from the north and the south. There are not many big cities in the west, and he would have totally isolated the country in a week or two. 

And I don't get the logic of attacking Mariopol. It's got nowhere to go, I would just surround it,  blockade it, and allow food and medicine in, and civilians out. 

It's the craziest of wars. Zelensky now says neutrality and abandoning the Nato membership ambition are up for grabs. If he'd had a bit of foresight, and offered that six weeks ago, it could all be forgotten by now. 

[MSC]

25 minutes ago, mistermack said:

It's the craziest of wars. Zelensky now says neutrality and abandoning the Nato membership ambition are up for grabs. If he'd had a bit of foresight, and offered that six weeks ago, it could all be forgotten by now. 

Quote

You cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth!

- Winston Churchill (Fictitious line from the movie Darkest hour)

To be clear, he never said this exactly. However I find the phrase at least to be meaningful in this situation.

What he apparently did say, was that you cannot reason with cynical immorality or from a position of weakness.

Edited April 3, 2022 by MSC
Clarification of movie quote

[mistermack]

4 minutes ago, MSC said:

Quote

You cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth!

- Winston Churchill

Churchill was a lying windbag. What would you do, if a tiger had your head in it's mouth?

[zapatos]

45 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Zelensky now says neutrality and abandoning the Nato membership ambition are up for grabs. If he'd had a bit of foresight, and offered that six weeks ago, it could all be forgotten by now. 

You are making a pretty big assumption that all Putin wanted was a pledge of neutrality. If that were true Putin could grab it now and withdraw.

Owning a land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas region, and all the natural resources of eastern Ukraine are a pretty prize.

[TheVat]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

It will be interesting to see how PM Viktor "Viktator" Orban does in the Hungarian Election tomorrow...

I think Orban's tight control of media there answers the question of who wins.   Would love to be surprised, though.  Ukrainian refugees, percolating through Hungarian society, could help to pierce the bubble, too.  

[iNow]

37 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Owning a land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas region, and all the natural resources of eastern Ukraine are a pretty prize.

As is seizing control from the West more broadly while positioning oneself as a capable suitor with bulldog tendencies willing and able to help a rising China rise even faster. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by iNow

[mistermack]

1 hour ago, zapatos said:

You are making a pretty big assumption that all Putin wanted was a pledge of neutrality. If that were true Putin could grab it now and withdraw.

Owning a land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas region, and all the natural resources of eastern Ukraine are a pretty prize.

It's a new situation now, with sanctions being applied by most of the world, and blood having been spilt, he's not going to go back to his original offer. 

But before it kicked off, I'm sure that a commitment never to join NATO and a neutrality pledge would have been enough. After all, when you are negotiating, you normally start with your highest price, and come down a bit for a final deal. 

What they have now is a real mess for everybody, except maybe NATO, which was looking at flagging committment by members till this happened. Funny that. 

[zapatos]

5 minutes ago, mistermack said:

with sanctions being applied by most of the world, and blood having been spilt, he's not going to go back to his original offer. 

Why?

5 minutes ago, mistermack said:

After all, when you are negotiating, you normally start with your highest price, and come down a bit for a final deal. 

So he can get his highest offer now. Why turn it down? He could claim 100% victory and get everything he wanted from the beginning.

 

7 minutes ago, mistermack said:

What they have now is a real mess

All the more reason to take what he wanted all along then. Seems like he'd have pretty good bragging rights too, by saying he FORCED them to give him everything he wanted.

 

[mistermack]

6 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Why?

Why? Because the price he's paying has gone up tenfold. That's why. 

[iNow]

15 minutes ago, mistermack said:

I'm sure that a commitment never to join NATO and a neutrality pledge would have been enough.

Well, so long as YOU’RE sure. Yep, that’s good enough for me.

[mistermack]

2 minutes ago, iNow said:

Well, so long as YOU’RE sure. Yep, that’s good enough for me.

That's childish. Help yourself to a lollipop !

[MSC]

2 hours ago, mistermack said:

Churchill was a lying windbag.

He was a politician. So of course he was a lying windbag. That's not news. He was still right about Hitler.

Take my head out of the tigers mouth of course. I'm certainly not going to speak to it.