War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[J.C.MacSwell]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

Protest against conscription? 

Fleeing Kaliningrad in a minisub in such haste as to bump into a few pipes?

[iNow]

12 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Fleeing Kaliningrad in a minisub in such haste as to bump into a few pipes?

Haste is their intent, but not their velocity.

The line to leave the country is already 20 miles long with stick cars sitting still like the worst rush hour traffic ever. I don’t know what 20 miles converts to in Celsius, but it’s an exodus of about 260,000 people, just shy of the 300K he called up. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by iNow

[J.C.MacSwell]

10 minutes ago, iNow said:

Haste is their intent, but not their velocity.

The line to leave the country is already 20 miles long with stick cars sitting still like the worst rush hour traffic ever. I don’t know what 20 miles converts to in Celsius, but it’s an exodus of about 260,000 people, just shy of the 300K he called up. 

32 km...maybe a few degrees more on a hot day...😀

Hopefully enough become emboldened by all the protests and exodus before Putin is able to put a halt to it, and they overthrow him. Or maybe enough news gets to the Russian soldiers on the front lines that they aren't fully supported, morally and otherwise, and more do the right thing and surrender. Faint hopes.

[StringJunky]

5 hours ago, iNow said:

Protest against conscription? 

I thought it coincidental that another pipeline has just come online.

[Sensei]

5 hours ago, iNow said:

Protest against conscription? 

Not really.. "God's will"

 

8 hours ago, TheVat said:

Why would Russia attack its own infrastructure

The destruction of the pipe makes it impossible to blackmail Europe by closing it and reconnecting it, at will.. so, it is gone, for real.. "God's will"

 

[zapatos]

I would assume leaks have formed in the past, or are at least planned for, and repairs should not be a big deal. Apparently they are at a depth even divers can reach.

[TheVat]

Z,

These were explosions registered around N Europe on seismographs.  I would speculate that they blew the bejesus out of those pipes, as the sudden drop in pressure also points to, and repair will be a largish deal.  (With small workaday leaks, IIUTC, you can keep the pipeline pressurized and keep seawater out)

[zapatos]

Three explosions? Meaning three sections of pipe? Don't you just remove any sections of pipe, even if say 100 meters long, and lay new pipe? They've already laid hundreds of miles of pipe so clearly they have the know-how.

Obviously pumping out the seawater will take time, but surely they must have planned for breaches in the pipeline.

[TheVat]

 

19 hours ago, zapatos said:

but surely they must have planned for breaches in the pipeline.

No doubt.  I was just raising the point as part of wondering about the cost/benefit for a Russian actor to do such a thing, not as someone remotely near an expert on how big a project this kind of pipeline repair is.  Maybe it does just involve removing a short length of pipe.  

In other news, the sham of annexation proceeds....

Lipavsky described the pro-Russia referendums as “theater play" and insisted the regions remain "Ukrainian territory.”

Armed Russian troops at went door-to-door with election officials to collect ballots in five days of voting that produced suspiciously high margins in favor of joining Russia. Ukrainian officials said the military escorts also took down the names of residents who voted against annexation.

Moscow-installed administrations in the four regions of southern and eastern Ukraine claimed Tuesday night that 93% of the ballots cast in the Zaporizhzhia region supported annexation, as did 87% in Kherson, 98% in Luhansk and 99% in Donetsk.

“Under threats and sometimes even (at) gunpoint, people are being taken out of their homes or workplaces to vote in glass ballot boxes,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at a conference in Berlin.

“This is the opposite of free and fair elections,” Baerbock said. “And this is the opposite of peace. It’s dictated peace. As long as this Russian diktat prevails in the occupied territories of Ukraine, no citizen is safe. No citizen is free.”

(from ABC news, this morning)

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/kremlin-regions-ukraine-folded-russia-friday-90683980

[StringJunky]

Given that the US has been hostile to the Nordstream pipelines, could it possibly be them sabotaging?

[TheVat]

Seems unlikely.  Biden and SoS Blinken favor economic crowbars more than military ones when it comes to isolating Russia from energy markets. (And there's that whole WWIII thing, aways an undercurrent)  Why blow things up (and possibly leave fingerprints) when Europe is buckling in for austerity and gas boycotts already?  And sabotage traced to US or NATO would just feed Moscow's whole grievance narrative, risking even more entrenchment in their aggression.

 

Here's some further coverage, which includes some prelim scientific analysis of methane release, size of explosions, and of course the usual political bristling.  I posted a screenshot, too, in case you hit a paywall.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/29/nord-stream-gas-leak-methane-russia/

Screenshot --

https://archive.ph/0fUQ4

[geordief]

Biden is saying that USA will never recognize Russia's annexation of ( those that parts of)Ukraine. 

If Trump is reelected is that what he will do?

[iNow]

36 minutes ago, geordief said:

If Trump is reelected is that what he will do?

No. Not here. Not this thread. That discussion belongs in Speculations, or at least in Medical Science bc that’s what more of us will require to avoid going (joining the hordes of the ?) completely mad should that actually come to pass. 

On 9/27/2022 at 1:37 PM, J.C.MacSwell said:

Curious who might have sabotaged the Nordstream pipelines

My money’s on China. 

5 hours ago, TheVat said:

Why blow things up (and possibly leave fingerprints) when Europe is buckling in for austerity and gas boycotts already?

To get everyone to focus their attention on the explosion and scramble faster to seek out warmth for winter instead of focusing on any of the other things they don’t want us (or our various intelligences) paying attention to right now.

Subterfuge, as it were, with a poke in the eye to the countries Hitler was working to conquer. 

But now I’ve gone and done it and Godwin’d the damn thread. I’ll see myself out. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by iNow

[J.C.MacSwell]

If all goes according to Putin's plan parts of current Ukraine will be annexed by Russia, including areas that held no referendum, sham or otherwise, as they are still controlled by Ukraine.

It would seem equally reasonable that these soon to be claimed new parts of Russia still occupied by Ukraine could then hold their own referendum and decide that the Moscow Oblast be annexed by the Moon, giving the lunatic fringe in the Kremlin an appropriate place to call home.

Edited September 30, 2022 by J.C.MacSwell

[Doctor Derp]

If china invades taiwan to capture TSMC.

Would TSMC employees and engineers abandon the company to flee overseas. 

Is there a scenario where china invades taiwan that is favorable to TSMC and those who work there.

[Sensei]

11 hours ago, geordief said:

If Trump is reelected is that what he will do?

What sockpuppets do? Follow strings..

If he is nominated by the Republican Party, the next presidential election will not be Republican Party vs. Democratic Party tournament, but pro-V.P. or anti-V.P., pro-totalitarian-regime or anti-totalitarian-regime..

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Sensei

[TheVat]

11 hours ago, iNow said:

That discussion belongs in Speculations, or at least in Medical Science bc that’s what more of us will require to avoid going (joining the hordes of the ?) completely mad should that actually come to pass. 

Plus one to that.

11 hours ago, iNow said:

To get everyone to focus their attention on the explosion and scramble faster to seek out warmth for winter instead of focusing on any of the other things they don’t want us (or our various intelligences) paying attention to right now.

Subterfuge, as it were, with a poke in the eye to the countries Hitler was working to conquer. 

But now I’ve gone and done it and Godwin’d the damn thread. I’ll see myself out. 

Godwin himself has pointed out that sometimes parallels to Nazi Germany are called for in a discussion.  Godwin's Law is observational not proscriptive.  My question (why blow things up, etc) was more directed at Stringy asking if the US could have done the deed - and how I didn't see much motive for us.  (I should have copy-paste his comment in my post)  I agree Russia has possible motives.

[iNow]

54 minutes ago, TheVat said:

if the US could have done the deed - and how I didn't see much motive for us

Agreed. 

On the Hitler front, I've been getting strong "invade Poland and Belgium to exterminate those we dislike" vibes from major geopolitical players (Xi, Putin, others) these days.

2 hours ago, Doctor Derp said:

Would TSMC employees and engineers abandon the company to flee overseas. 

Depends a bit on TSMC management and how willing they are to facilitate relocations at the expense of the company. Also whether the Taiwanese government could help to facilitate such a rapid transfer while also trying in parallel to defend themselves against one of the largest most powerful countries on the planet. 

Main issue is they're semiconductor manufacturing, and those types of cleanrooms and fabs aren't exactly easy, quick, or cheap to setup. They'd need to partner or somehow join forces with the their competitors like the Nvidias and Applied Materials and Tokyo Electrons etc. of the world, but capitalism makes the incentive to do so pretty weak.

We won't know how they respond until / if such an invasion happens, so we could equally be saying they'll use unicorn farts to teleport themselves into another dimension... it would rest on similar footing right now. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by iNow

[MigL]

You are straying dangerously close to 'conspiracy theories', INow.
Sometimes we give China too much credit as to their capabilities and intentions.
They seem to have their own problems.
 

On 9/30/2022 at 8:46 AM, Doctor Derp said:

Is there a scenario where china invades taiwan that is favorable to TSMC and those who work there.

I don't know.
Ask the people of Hong Kong.

[J.C.MacSwell]

Looks like Russia pulled the ol' "annex and run" in Lyman...

"Russia pulls troops from Lyman after Ukrainian forces encircle city"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/lyman-ukraine-russia-war-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-1.6602888

[MigL]

It is so hypocritical of Russia to blame western nations of supplying weapons to the Ukrainian resistance.
The Russians themselves have apparently provided much more in terms of hastly abandoned tanks, artillery, etc.

Let this be a lesson to all limp Dicktators.
( did you learn anything, Xi ? )

[iNow]

5 hours ago, MigL said:

You are straying dangerously close to 'conspiracy theories', INow

Indeed, you’re right. I’ve found myself doing that more frequently lately. Such are the modern times. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

It seems like the retreat from Lyman was delayed due to the Russian command structure...possibly even waiting for the pomp and circumstance celebrations in Moscow to end so they could consider getting out of an area they just claimed to have annexed.

I wonder how many Russian soldiers that cost them?

[TheVat]

The less professional the army, the more likely to flee in disarray, and to abandon their weapons.  (Or become cannon fodder)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/20/russia-recruits-inmates-ukraine-war-wagner-prigozhin

The Kremlin’s reliance on unorthodox methods to keep the fighting going in Ukraine is worrying for Russia, according to Lee. “Russia no longer has a professional army in the traditional sense. It is now made up of some professional units, mixed with paid short-term contract soldiers, mercenaries and now, apparently, prisoners.

“Armies are effective when there is clear hierarchy and cohesion,” Lee added. “I can’t even begin to imagine what disciplinary problems prisoners will bring.”

On Tuesday, the opposition leader Alexei Navalny, himself behind bars, tweeted that Russian prisons were full of people with “big problems with discipline and even bigger problems with alcohol and substances”. He said: “What could such an army even accomplish in combat?”

[swansont]

6 hours ago, TheVat said:

On Tuesday, the opposition leader Alexei Navalny, himself behind bars, tweeted that Russian prisons were full of people with “big problems with discipline and even bigger problems with alcohol and substances”. He said: “What could such an army even accomplish in combat?”

I’m guessing it’s “die in large numbers in a war of attrition” which seems to be a Russian tradition.

20 hours ago, iNow said:

Indeed, you’re right. I’ve found myself doing that more frequently lately. Such are the modern times. 

I blame the crab people and their mind control technology.