War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[Endy0816]

6 hours ago, DimaMazin said:

Do you think that Obama and Trump want to help to Ukraine? And do you think that they have no influence in Biden's government and in The Washington Post? Then why this article is published in this concrete day?

Obama, yes. Trump, who knows?

Generally past Presidents don't interfere with the current one. You get 8 years and you're done.

Trump is bit of an outlier as he only served one term of his two and is eligible for reelection.

[TheVat]

Quote

Do you think that Obama and Trump want to help to Ukraine? And do you think that they have no influence in Biden's government and in The Washington Post? Then why this article is published in this concrete day?

 

 

It's published because the Post got a scoop.  With pretty solid information from European intelligence service.  And the story, if you read it, concerns blowing up a pipeline that was part of the energy supply of several NATO nations....nations that have given billions and will give billions more to Ukraines defense.  When Ukraine's operational plans include a kick in the butt to Russia that bounces off Russia and also kicks their allies, it's a good idea to coordinate with said allies.  The US may look the other way, but nations like Germany already had a large faction that was questioning some appropriations to Ukraine.  So maybe not the best plan.  

To review, from the article....

Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic...

Edited June 8, 2023 by TheVat
pagebreak, crosspost, needs quote

[DimaMazin]

14 minutes ago, TheVat said:

It's published because the Post got a scoop.  With pretty solid information from European intelligence service.  And the story, if you read it, concerns blowing up a pipeline that was part of the energy supply of several NATO nations....nations that have given billions and will give billions more to Ukraines defense.  When Ukraine's operational plans include a kick in the butt to Russia that bounces off Russia and also kicks their allies, it's a good idea to coordinate with said allies.  The US may look the other way, but nations like Germany already had a large faction that was questioning some appropriations to Ukraine.  So maybe not the best plan.  

To review, from the article....

Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic...

Well. Ukrainians were in panic and therefore they were some dangerous. Do Europeans think that Ukrainians will be less dangerous under Russian flags?

[geordief]

50 minutes ago, TheVat said:

 

 

It's published because the Post got a scoop.  With pretty solid information from European intelligence service.  And the story, if you read it, concerns blowing up a pipeline that was part of the energy supply of several NATO nations....nations that have given billions and will give billions more to Ukraines defense.  When Ukraine's operational plans include a kick in the butt to Russia that bounces off Russia and also kicks their allies, it's a good idea to coordinate with said allies.  The US may look the other way, but nations like Germany already had a large faction that was questioning some appropriations to Ukraine.  So maybe not the best plan.  

To review, from the article....

Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic...

Fog of War?

Can we afford Ukraine to be defeated when it has shown it has all the cojones and all we need to provide is material assistance?

 

Ukraine has the fingers of a demented  lunatic around its neck.

I don't think  the Marquis of Queensbury  rules  apply.

Separately and since Taiwan is one half of this OPthis early assessment by a Chinese source at the very start is fairly amusing in hindsight

 

", a quick solution to the battle. Just as Russia’s war against Ukraine is likely to be resolved within 48 hours, if the “war of reunification of Taiwan” starts, the “highest goal” of the PLA is to “reunify Taiwan”. The PLA will never delay and will not give the U.S., Japan and Europe the time and opportunity to intervene militarily and politically. The PLA will also defeat the island’s naval and air forces in the shortest possible time, seize air and sea control, provide security for subsequent landing operations, “eliminate” Taiwan’s combat power within 48 hours, and take full control of Taiwan within 72 hours."

 

https://www.china-arms.com/2022/02/russia-ukraine-war-inspiration-taiwan/

Edited June 8, 2023 by geordief

[TheVat]

2 hours ago, geordief said:

Fog of War?

Can we afford Ukraine to be defeated when it has shown it has all the cojones and all we need to provide is material assistance?

 

Ukraine has the fingers of a demented  lunatic around its neck.

I don't think  the Marquis of Queensbury  rules  apply.

Fair points.  I'm not opposed to moving fast and breaking things in dire situations.  I posted it to get some idea of how this looks, especially to folks in Europe, and ask if that crack demolition team might have found more effective Russian kneecaps to whack elsewhere.  E.g. maybe blow up the rest of the Kerch Strait bridge, which is important to Russia's control of Crimea.  Or take out Russian pipelines that carry oil/gas to China.  Just saying, maybe keep the CIA in the loop and work with them on finding Achilles Heels.  Or train more sharks like this one....

https://www.thedailybeast.com/tourists-watch-russian-man-get-devoured-by-shark-on-egypt-beach

 

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, geordief said:

Fog of War?

Can we afford Ukraine to be defeated when it has shown it has all the cojones and all we need to provide is material assistance?

 

Ukraine has the fingers of a demented  lunatic around its neck.

I don't think  the Marquis of Queensbury  rules  apply.

Separately and since Taiwan is one half of this OPthis early assessment by a Chinese source at the very start is fairly amusing in hindsight

 

", a quick solution to the battle. Just as Russia’s war against Ukraine is likely to be resolved within 48 hours, if the “war of reunification of Taiwan” starts, the “highest goal” of the PLA is to “reunify Taiwan”. The PLA will never delay and will not give the U.S., Japan and Europe the time and opportunity to intervene militarily and politically. The PLA will also defeat the island’s naval and air forces in the shortest possible time, seize air and sea control, provide security for subsequent landing operations, “eliminate” Taiwan’s combat power within 48 hours, and take full control of Taiwan within 72 hours."

 

https://www.china-arms.com/2022/02/russia-ukraine-war-inspiration-taiwan/

Just like Russia did in a week...eh... they talk BS.  Let's get real. China is so 'advanced' and sophisticated it put a ramp on a ship and calls it an 'aircraft carrier'!

[CharonY]

I think the most realistic scenario pointed out by various analysts is a blockade, rather than outright invasion of Taiwan. However, right now with worldwide reliance on Taiwanese production, they would be shooting themselves in the foot. I think I have heard it referred to as "silicone shield".

There are reports that Xi wants to have military ramped out to be ready for an invasion in a few year's time, suggesting that they do not consider themselves fully operational for that purpose yet. 

 

 

[MigL]

That would have to be 'Silicon Shield', CharonY.
They don't make breast implants 😄 .

[StringJunky]

3 hours ago, TheVat said:

Fair points.  I'm not opposed to moving fast and breaking things in dire situations.  I posted it to get some idea of how this looks, especially to folks in Europe, and ask if that crack demolition team might have found more effective Russian kneecaps to whack elsewhere.  E.g. maybe blow up the rest of the Kerch Strait bridge, which is important to Russia's control of Crimea.  Or take out Russian pipelines that carry oil/gas to China.  Just saying, maybe keep the CIA in the loop and work with them on finding Achilles Heels.  Or train more sharks like this one....

https://www.thedailybeast.com/tourists-watch-russian-man-get-devoured-by-shark-on-egypt-beach

 

We don't know the level of mutual operational familiarity regarding Ukraine intent. I'm guessing we've given them the red lines with our equipment and the rest is up to them.

Edited June 8, 2023 by StringJunky

[StringJunky]

Regarding China, it appears they are trying to procure spying space in Cuba.

Quote

China seeking to spy on the U.S. from a base in Cuba

China is in talks with Cuba to establish a foothold there to spy on the United States, two senior U.S. officials said, a provocative move that already has lawmakers warning about parallels to the Cold War.

The officials, granted anonymity to discuss an extremely sensitive intelligence matter, said China was in direct conversations with Cuba to set up a base on the island nation just 100 miles from the United States. It would allow Beijing to collect signals intelligence on southeastern portions of America, home to many military facilities and major industries. Evidence of the negotiations came to light in recent weeks, the officials said.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/08/china-spy-on-us-cuba-00100990

The arms companies are going to be busy for another  few years. Another load of petrol waiting for a match to light it.

Do any here think Ukraine will try to do a military takeover on Crimea eventually?

Edited June 8, 2023 by StringJunky

[zapatos]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

Do any here think Ukraine will try to do a military takeover on Crimea eventually?

I will be shocked if they don't. For one thing this is probably going to be their best chance. The West is supporting them now and will until they take Crimea, assuming they go that route. If they wait and try to negotiate for it, Russia will never give it to them and I don't believe the West will support Ukraine to initiate hostilities for a future military takeover after hostilities have ceased. In other words, it is now or never.

Secondly, Ukraine will never be safe  with Russia at their doorstep, controlling the Black Sea and thus any shipping routes Ukraine needs for trade. The West also benefits from kicking Russia out of Crimea for the same reasons.

As a side note, I believe the Kerch Strait Bridge will remain standing for now as Ukraine wants Russia to have a route to retreat once Ukraine has cut the land bridge. Without the land bridge Russia will not be able to sufficiently supply the peninsula for a war.

Edited June 8, 2023 by zapatos

[CharonY]

3 hours ago, MigL said:

That would have to be 'Silicon Shield', CharonY.
They don't make breast implants 😄 .

Ack, well perhaps that works, too. Considering that much of it appears to be a huge dick-waving contest in the first place...

[iNow]

Saudi Arabia should announce that the next/very first LIV/PGA joint golf tournament will be held in Ukraine. China should then follow-up by announcing they’re sending Li Haotong and Shanshan Feng (their top male and female golfers) to compete in it and they expect their people and diplomats to be safe regardless of where on the planet they happen to be traveling. Finally, to seal it and ensure peace for generations to come, billionaire Formula One owner, John C Malone, should announce Crimea as the location of the next annual race in the Grand Prix circuit. 

tl;dr - Money’s gotta end this. We can’t allow more Hiroshimas nor Nagasakis to force surrenders. 

[DimaMazin]

13 hours ago, TheVat said:

 

 

 but nations like Germany already had a large faction that was questioning some appropriations to Ukraine. 

Again my formula works there. Merkel was finansing Putin. Putin was finansing Alternative for Germany. Therefore Merkel was finansing Alternative for Germany.

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Saudi Arabia should announce that the next/very first LIV/PGA joint golf tournament will be held in Ukraine. China should then follow-up by announcing they’re sending Li Haotong and Shanshan Feng (their top male and female golfers) to compete in it and they expect their people and diplomats to be safe regardless of where on the planet they happen to be traveling. Finally, to seal it and ensure peace for generations to come, billionaire Formula One owner, John C Malone, should announce Crimea as the location of the next annual race in the Grand Prix circuit. 

tl;dr - Money’s gotta end this. We can’t allow more Hiroshimas nor Nagasakis to force surrenders. 

Discoveries are money. Other money leads us to war.

[iNow]

21 minutes ago, DimaMazin said:

Discoveries are money. Other money leads us to war.

Please elaborate 

[StringJunky]

AP Today: 

Note the rof has been out of the car and there are barrels inside.

Quote

BERISLAV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia had the means, motive and opportunity to bring down a Ukrainian dam that collapsed earlier this month while under Russian control, according to exclusive drone photos and information obtained by The Associated Press.

Images taken from above the Kakhovka Dam and shared with the AP appear to show an explosive-laden car atop the structure, and two officials said Russian troops were stationed in a crucial area inside the dam where the Ukrainians say the explosion that destroyed it was centered. The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-kakhovka-dam-collapse-investigation-f5b76fe1ddbf98aa5ff7e4dfd3199c38

[DimaMazin]

On 6/19/2023 at 9:55 AM, StringJunky said:

AP Today: 

Note the rof has been out of the car and there are barrels inside.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-kakhovka-dam-collapse-investigation-f5b76fe1ddbf98aa5ff7e4dfd3199c38

We discuss what is response.

[J.C.MacSwell]

Russian Civil War? One can only hope...

Prigozhin on his way to Moscow? Careful what you wish for...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/23/europe/russia-mod-wagner-yevgeny-prigozhin-intl/index.html

Edited June 24, 2023 by J.C.MacSwell

[iNow]

3 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Russian Civil War? One can only hope...

Prigozhin on his way to Moscow? Careful what you wish for...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/23/europe/russia-mod-wagner-yevgeny-prigozhin-intl/index.html

Yes. Watching. Value of ruble c ashes last night. Putin military hunting him for coup attempt. 

He won’t be the last. When Putin is ultimately gone (whatever the cause and timing), we’ll be able to hear the sound of wind whooshing past us to fill the power vacuum. 

[geordief]

I hear the Russians have about 2 weeks of stocks in Ukraine.

A long conflict with Wagner could deplete those to Ukraine 's advantage. 

I also think that ĺ that Prigoblin bloke had just said the war was a mistake in the first place so let's hope he cleans out Putin.

 

 

[J.C.MacSwell]

Depending on how this goes, I can see the Chechens and other ethnic groups reconsidering why they want to remain as part of Russia...and of course China may want to get involved in "protecting" ethnic Chinese in Russia's East...an excuse Putin should well understand...

Edited June 24, 2023 by J.C.MacSwell

[MigL]

I would assume quite a few ethnic regions of the current Russia would want independence, after their kids have been used as cannon fodder in this useless war.
This could be the end of Russia as we know it, and its 'Balkanization' into smaller, but resource rich, independent nations.

If all goes well ( probably no chance of that happening, however ) that's the end of one bogeyman.
Only KJU, Xi and Trump left ...

[J.C.MacSwell]

4 minutes ago, MigL said:

If all goes well ( probably no chance of that happening, however ) that's the end of one bogeyman.
Only KJU, Xi and Trump left ...

 By that time though...might have to add Prigozhin

He's probably halfway to Moscow already...(how long did it take him to take Bakhmut again?)

Now...I certainly hope news of this doesn't discourage any Russian troops on the front lines in Ukraine, LOL.

Edited June 24, 2023 by J.C.MacSwell

[Genady]

Russians fighting Russians. Ура!

[Royston]

21 minutes ago, Genady said:

Russians fighting Russians. Ура!

Indeed, there's images circulating of Prigozhin meeting with Yevkurov, the talks clearly didn't go well, and now Wagner are on Moscow's doorstep. The petty infighting that has led to this, is deeply embarrassing for Putin.