War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[iNow]

45 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

The U.S. also released a map of Russian military positions and detailed how officials believe Russia will try to attack Ukraine with as many as 175,000 troops.

From Axios:

Maxar satellite images show an expansion of Russia's buildup near Ukraine's border, with troop tents and shelters now visible at "virtually every deployment location in Belarus, Crimea and western Russia."

 

Evidence of new housing and live-fire exercises suggest pre-positioned units "have increased their overall readiness level."

[SergUpstart]

You think it will start tomorrow??? Because in 2008, Russia's war against Georgia began on the opening day of the Olympics in China.

[iNow]

Predictions are hard, especially about the future 

[mistermack]

Portraying Russia as a bully, keen on attacking it's neighbours, shows incredible ignorance of history. Russia saved Europe from the Nazis. There was a history in lots of Europe of enthusiastic cooperation with the Nazis. Ukraine had a lot of it's own Nazis. Some of the European Nazis were worse than the German ones. Once the WW2 was over, Churchill was urging the Americans to continue the war by attacking Russia, the country that save his bacon. 

It's with that sort of history that the Russians understandably have a real distrust of the West. Stalin made that mistake, of trusting Hitler, and they learned a bitter lesson.

Since the war, rather than attacking their neighbours, the Russians have cut loads of countries loose, and what did they all do? Joined up to a military alliance whose only reason for existence is to fight Russia. 

Russia has only taken action against neighbours when the ethnic Russian people in those countries were being attacked, as in Georgia and Ukraine. Describing it as bullying is really just buying into the story you are fed by the western media. It's beyond dumb not to question it, just because the BBC reports it. If you have a minority of any sort, they should be treated identically to everyone else. That didn't happen in Georgia, and Russia took action. There's no way Russia would have bothered, without the opressive treatment of the ethnic Russians. They could have easily taken all of Georgia if they wanted. So they obviously didn't want. 

Ukraine has an awful lot of ethnic Russians. Elections were very close between Russian leaning parties, and West leaning. Pretty much fifty fifty, till the current gang took over. Now, the elections get bent in their favour, just as they were probably bent the other way previously. Like I said, the politics of Ukraine is rotten. To portray Ukraine as democratic is laughable. 

Ironically, the Russians have shot themselves in the foot election-wise, becuse Crimea was more than 90% russian leaning, and so are the disputed areas on the Russian border. So now, those areas don't vote in elections, swaying the Ukraine electoral balance towards the West. 

[zapatos]

26 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Since the war, rather than attacking their neighbours...

LOL! And you call me ignorant of history. Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Ukraine? Any of those ring a bell?

[geordief]

38 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Russia saved Europe from the Nazis.

Whilst true imo (though some would dispute and point out that Hitler's goose was cooked  when he attacked USA) is there any reason to suppose that the liberation  of Europe(not much of a liberation  for Easter Europe btw) was not just a by product of Russia's success in defending itself?

 

What is ikely undeniable is that Russia suffered as much as any other country at the hands of the Nazis  even if it may have inflicted a comparable level of suffering on its own and  other  peoples after the war.

 

[Prometheus]

12 minutes ago, zapatos said:

LOL! And you call me ignorant of history. Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Ukraine? Any of those ring a bell?

And do Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam ring bells? 

None of which, of course, justify what Russia is doing but just because Putin is a dictator out for himself and his boys, doesn't mean Russia doesn't have its own legitimate security concerns.

It's also hard to make the (perfectly reasonable) case that Russia should pursue those concerns at the UN, when the USA and UK bypassed international institutions when they 'believed' Iraq was an imminent security threat.

7 hours ago, mistermack said:

Like somebody said earlier, I think Putin is just holding back for the winter olympics, to be nice to China. 

I doubt it. Every day gives the Ukraine more time to prepare, receive equipment and training from the West. Even with Russia's overwhelming forces, Ukraine should give Russia a bloody nose, and coffins coming home doesn't look good, even for dictators. My guess is weather and/or political manoeuvring. 

[iNow]

2 hours ago, mistermack said:

Portraying Russia as a bully, keen on attacking it's neighbours, shows incredible ignorance of history.

Perhaps, but it shows the opposite of that in the present. 

[zapatos]

1 hour ago, Prometheus said:

And do Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam ring bells? 

The UK has invaded all but 22 countries in the entire world. Does that ring a bell?

Not that this has anything to do with what you said, but then neither did your statement have anything to do with what I said.

Perhaps it would be best to try to stay on topic.

[iNow]

On topic would be welcome 

[TheVat]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/

Looks at what motivates Vlad, and why he might not want a democracy on his doorstep.  Or have the USA continue as a functional democracy.  

[Prometheus]

9 hours ago, zapatos said:

The UK has invaded all but 22 countries in the entire world. Does that ring a bell?

It rings a very loud bell which is why i'm keen to consider geopolitics from as many perspectives as possible. 

I'm not sure why considering whether the security concerns of Russia are legitimate, or the erosion of trust in international institutions due to past unilateral actions by the global superpower and allies is off topic. 

[iNow]

2 hours ago, Prometheus said:

I'm not sure why considering whether the security concerns of Russia are legitimate, or the erosion of trust in international institutions due to past unilateral actions by the global superpower and allies is off topic. 

I’m trying to focus discussion on the probable response from US and allies (and the potential ramifications of that) when/if Russia decides to invade more and more sovereign neighbors. When comments at least attempt to tie back and relate to that focus, it’s appreciated. 

Edited February 4, 2022 by iNow

[StringJunky]

Russia and China are publicly cosying up together:

Quote

BEIJING (AP) — The leaders of Russia and China pushed back against U.S. pressure on Friday, declaring their opposition to any expansion of NATO and affirming that the island of Taiwan is a part of China, as they met hours before the Winter Olympics kicked off in Beijing.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping issued a joint statement highlighting what it called “interference in the internal affairs” of other states, as both leaders face criticism from Washington over their foreign and domestic policies.

“Some forces representing a minority on the world stage continue to advocate unilateral approaches to resolving international problems and resort to military policy,” it read, in a thinly veiled reference to the U.S. and its allies.

https://apnews.com/article/winter-olympics-putin-xi-meet-0e9127176250c0cab19b36e75800052e

 

[beecee]

4 hours ago, StringJunky said:

Russia and China are publicly cosying up together:

I don't really see that as extraordinary, despite probable differences. North Korea making it a tri-nations?

Edited February 4, 2022 by beecee

[StringJunky]

17 minutes ago, beecee said:

I don't really see that as extraordinary, despite probable differences. North Korea maing it a tri-nations?

 A  menage a trois.  Marriage of three. I'm reporting.

Edited February 4, 2022 by StringJunky

[SergUpstart]

Xi Jinping, Putin, Erdogan, Lukashenko, Aliyev, Kim Jong-un, Maduro... alliance of authoritarian regimes

Edited February 5, 2022 by SergUpstart

[Prometheus]

6 hours ago, SergUpstart said:

Xi Jinping, Putin, Erdogan, Lukashenko, Aliyev, Kim Jong-un, Maduro... alliance of authoritarian regimes

Turkey is a NATO member, the only one to have shot down a Russian jet in the last 6 years, opposes Russian actions in Syria, has condemned the Crimean annex and increasingly sells weapons to Ukraine - especially drones proven effective against Russian artillery. True that Turkey also cooperates with Russia on some fronts, even in Syria at times, but to present this situation as binary is an over-simplification.

[dimreepr]

5 hours ago, Prometheus said:

but to present this situation as binary is an over-simplification.

Indeed +1, no-one in this game wants an actual war...

[SergUpstart]

7 hours ago, Prometheus said:

the only one to have shot down a Russian jet in the last 6 years

Only some time later, the commander of the Turkish Air Force, who gave the order to shoot down the Russian Su-24, was among the conspirators who tried to overthrow Erdogan. And then, among other things, Putin's support helped Erdogan stay in power.

And we must not forget that China plays the first role in this alliance, and not Russia, respectively, economic power.

And Tom Clancy naively believed that in a future war with China, Russia and the United States would be allies.

[iNow]

During a press conference just now with the chancellor of Germany, President Biden warned Russia that invading Ukraine would be the end of its plans for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. 

[studiot]

I haven't taken an interest in this thread, but I thought some might appreciate this 1877 map.

 

[iNow]

The Biden administration has urged American expatriates in Ukraine to leave the country. 

[iNow]

It seems Russian media is sharing fake videos claiming US troops are currently occupying Ukraine to drum up support back home for invasion. 

[iNow]

An interesting take here that's extremely thread relevant (from Axios):

Quote

Ukraine as proxy for Taiwan

The Biden administration believes Beijing is gauging the U.S. response to Russian threats to Ukraine as a proxy for how America would deal with more Chinese aggression against Taiwan, Bloomberg reports.

• Why it matters: If Putin invades this week, as U.S. intelligence says could happen "any day now," the West would have new worries about the security of Taiwan, which is claimed by China. Beijing has increased military activity nearby in the past two years.

U.S. officials told Bloomberg they believe Xi’s government is studying the cohesion of the NATO alliance as it seeks to deter Moscow.

• Secretary of State Tony Blinken said last week in Melbourne, Australia, without naming China: "Others are watching.  Others are looking to all of us to see how we respond."