Projected Timeframe for Human-Crewed Deep Space Exploration

[Genady]

In this paper, the authors use the trends of NASA budget and of research activities, and the prior history of the crewed space exploration to predict how far we will go during the next 100 years: [2205.08061] Impact of Economic Constraints on the Projected Timeframe for Human-Crewed Deep Space Exploration (arxiv.org)

And here are the results:

[Ken Fabian]

Since I don't think any past rate of crewed space missions projected into the future can properly represent genuine expectations for technological advancement - and the sufficient motivations for ever more distant crewed missions (allegedly colonisation) are assumed and assumed to be sufficient - I remain deeply dubious that these kinds of studies can tell us anything useful.

I think space exploration will continue to be best done remotely with machines and the motivations for and benefits of crewed missions aren't entirely clear to me, beyond feel-good human interest; it isn't because they will do mapping, surveying, sampling better. Including them will reduce, not expand the overall mission capability, with astronaut safety and comfort coming at the expense of other, more useful payload and capabilities.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Ken Fabian

[Genady]

Yes, I hope they are wrong and the NASA budget will be used more wisely.