The next US President. By the people who know the odds.

[Phi for All]

2 hours ago, paulsutton said:

Why I am here rather than on 'social media'  better more constructive discussions.  I don't mnd making errors in how I have interpreted something because the response here is rational and explained.

I think we all appreciate that. I'm not so much interested in changing people's minds as I am in making sure my own perspectives are as reasoned and complete as I can make them. I realize that massive amounts of money have gone into skewing our perceptions to suit the needs of those with massive amounts of money, and it's going to take extraordinary critical thinking skills to rise above that and see what the world's socio-political landscape really looks like.

TFG purposely painted whole countries and peoples as shitholes full of rapists and thieves. These are textbook colonial tactics, and it's just unreal that they're still successful today. Call them "poor, third world countries" to make yourself seem sympathetic so you can offer "help" that allows you to pillage them, and also hide the fact that it was your country who pillaged theirs for centuries. TFG was able to get Americans to turn against the families of American soldiers who'd lost their lives, just because they weren't white. That's the part I have a hard time interpreting. Do so many white Americans hate brown people so much that TFG looks like a good idea?

[iNow]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

There are people who did not watch Game of Thrones and will not get that meme at all.  

Correct. It happens 

16 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

Do so many white Americans hate brown people so much that TFG looks like a good idea?

Yes, but that’s not his sole appeal. 

[Peterkin]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

"My dad lives in the deep woods in a shanty, where he speaks in tongues all day and lives on moss and crickets."

Like Tom Bombadil?

Sorry, impossible to resist, especially as you've done it to me with some iconic piece of cultural flotsam with which I was unfamiliar. 

Edited August 24, 2022 by Peterkin

[MigL]

10 minutes ago, iNow said:

26 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

Do so many white Americans hate brown people so much that TFG looks like a good idea?

Yes, but that’s not his sole appeal. 

Simplistic analysis, but I do know of some very racist people that think he's a threat to democracy also.

I have to wonder ...
Are 'betting' odds better than polls at predicting election outcomes ?
There is money involved, so people may be more careful/truthful with their selection/choice.
 

[paulsutton]

52 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

I think we all appreciate that. I'm not so much interested in changing people's minds as I am in making sure my own perspectives are as reasoned and complete as I can make them. I realize that massive amounts of money have gone into skewing our perceptions to suit the needs of those with massive amounts of money, and it's going to take extraordinary critical thinking skills to rise above that and see what the world's socio-political landscape really looks like.

TFG purposely painted whole countries and peoples as shitholes full of rapists and thieves. These are textbook colonial tactics, and it's just unreal that they're still successful today. Call them "poor, third world countries" to make yourself seem sympathetic so you can offer "help" that allows you to pillage them, and also hide the fact that it was your country who pillaged theirs for centuries. TFG was able to get Americans to turn against the families of American soldiers who'd lost their lives, just because they weren't white. That's the part I have a hard time interpreting. Do so many white Americans hate brown people so much that TFG looks like a good idea?

IIRC social media played a big part in this, apparently people in areas where there were immigrants were fed a narrative that there was also a high crime rate,   so they would buy the election propaganda that we need a border wall etc.

But off topic, over here in the UK lots of young people are using small canisters of Nitros Oxide (it is the new party drug apparently) but the narrative is spread on social media. so others follow suit,  despite the fact it is dangerous 

So while social media plays a part in all this, we probably need a better education system that teaches critical thinking, 

 

 

2 minutes ago, paulsutton said:

For the record if someone reading this is not sure what TFG is :-

TFG

What does TFG stand for?

TFG is an abbreviation that stands for “The Former Guy.” TFG is specifically used to refer to former US President Donald Trump as a way to avoid mentioning him by name in online posts.

https://www.dictionary.com/e/slang/tfg/

 

[Phi for All]

9 minutes ago, paulsutton said:

So while social media plays a part in all this, we probably need a better education system that teaches critical thinking, 

It's highly unlikely this can happen when we put those with massive amounts of money in charge of our ignorance. Above all, they don't want us smart enough to realize the power we have as people in a democracy rather than individuals. If we figure that out, ALL BETS ARE OFF.

[paulsutton]

2 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

It's highly unlikely this can happen when we put those with massive amounts of money in charge of our ignorance. Above all, they don't want us smart enough to realize the power we have as people in a democracy rather than individuals. If we figure that out, ALL BETS ARE OFF.

Agreed,   we are sleepwalking in to oblivion, well the west is at least.

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, Phi for All said:

That's the part I have a hard time interpreting. Do so many white Americans hate brown people so much that TFG looks like a good idea?

I think the race issue is so deeply coded that folks reacting to that are not even quite sure anymore that it is related to race at all. To many, this is about losing identity and norms. But of course, these norms were heavily associated with being white whereas the rest is just a deviation or fringe. Having the "fringe" now entering the main spaces is what makes many feel threatened.

10 minutes ago, MigL said:

I have to wonder ...
Are 'betting' odds better than polls at predicting election outcomes ?
There is money involved, so people may be more careful/truthful with their selection/choice.

Not as such. Individual bets might be closer to polls, but they are also vulnerable to manipulations (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimrossi/2020/10/29/election-odds-is-political-betting-more-accurate-than-polling/)

Quote

Rhode and Strumpf warn that betting markets remain vulnerable to political manipulation. In 2013, economists Rajiv Sethi and Rothschild, now at Microsoft Research, concluded a single “whale” had bet $4-7 million on Mitt Romney to defeat President Barack Obama in 2012 – fully one-third of all the money bet on the Republican. The scientists conclude the “Romney Whale” could have been hedging against earlier Obama wagers or smelled an upset, but was more likely an attempt to boost Republican voter morale. Amid CFTC investigations, Intrade soon shut down over “financial irregularities.”

[...]

In 2016, most betting markets did no better than pollsters and pundits – perhaps worse, according to business journalist Josh Barro. OddsShark, on the other hand, found betting markets outperformed polls – but still lost money. In the most infamous example, Irish online sports betting company Paddy Power, for reasons still unclear, paid out Hillary Clinton bets before the election. Paddy wound up taking 4 million pounds in losses – about $4.7 million.

 

4 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

It's highly unlikely this can happen when we put those with massive amounts of money in charge of our ignorance. Above all, they don't want us smart enough to realize the power we have as people in a democracy rather than individuals. If we figure that out, ALL BETS ARE OFF.

It is also important to note that many parents are not in favour of their kids learning (or being forced to learn) critical thinking. In many cases it turns out that their kids will struggle with the concept for a while at least and some are inevitably going to fail. As parents and kids associate high academic grades with (financial) success, it becomes a risk to take challenging courses or being forced to go through them. We see a continuation of this line of thinking also increasingly in colleges. I think there are  lot of knock-on effects going on.

[Phi for All]

7 minutes ago, CharonY said:

It is also important to note that many parents are not in favour of their kids learning (or being forced to learn) critical thinking. In many cases it turns out that their kids will struggle with the concept for a while at least and some are inevitably going to fail. As parents and kids associate high academic grades with (financial) success, it becomes a risk to take challenging courses or being forced to go through them. We see a continuation of this line of thinking also increasingly in colleges. I think there are  lot of knock-on effects going on.

I associate this with Christian religious affiliations mostly, but it's not quite like the Amish, where they didn't want their children exposed to modern thinking. This seems more like parents protecting their children from outlooks that might make their lives difficult, or lifestyles that might expose them to harsh criticism. It's better to fit in than to be happy for these people, and I can't help but notice how well that serves the wealth extremists.

It seems like half the Republicans and Democrats in the US just want status quo, and are willing to keep pretending slavery doesn't exist. The other half of each party have always wanted better representation for the taxes they pay, but that other half of the Republicans want to change the whole makeup of our government. Some want a theocracy, some want a fascistic order, and others just want to see this democracy die. 

[paulsutton]

17 minutes ago, CharonY said:

I think the race issue is so deeply coded that folks reacting to that are not even quite sure anymore that it is related to race at all. To many, this is about losing identity and norms. But of course, these norms were heavily associated with being white whereas the rest is just a deviation or fringe. Having the "fringe" now entering the main spaces is what makes many feel threatened.

 

 

I think you have a valid point here,   people are worried their way of life will be some how impacted by immigration oddly immigration can bring a new perspective to a community, new food from shops opening up selling different goods to other shops.  It is a case of being open minded and opening doors to your new community members and making them feel welcome.

What has happened in the Uk for example is that say a community centre has closed (lack of use) and it gets turned in to a Mosque for example,   so for this Muslims are likely to be blamed, not the fact that the community allowed the centre to become unused.

 

[Phi for All]

2 minutes ago, paulsutton said:

I think you have a valid point here,   people are worried their way of life will be some how impacted by immigration oddly immigration can bring a new perspective to a community, new food from shops opening up selling different goods to other shops.  It is a case of being open minded and opening doors to your new community members and making them feel welcome.

What has happened in the Uk for example is that say a community centre has closed (lack of use) and it gets turned in to a Mosque for example,   so for this Muslims are likely to be blamed, not the fact that the community allowed the centre to become unused.

We've been losing wages in the US since the time of Nixon, and have had a huge percentage of our population incarcerated as a slave workforce, but the beginning of the end for us over here was turning our informative, regulated news shows into unregulated entertainment. Watch out for your BBC, it's been getting less and less reliable for me, and I can see the bias more every day. You've also had a LOT of attacks on your wonderful national healthcare system, so I would imagine there are people paying to see stories like that. We never got a national program, and ours is quite simply pathetic. So many private hands out for what should be public monies! I paid into our Medicare system all my life, and they've now purposely made it so complicated you have to hire someone to help you decide which plans and supplements to buy (yes, still making monthly payments for health insurance at 65).

[paulsutton]

3 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

We've been losing wages in the US since the time of Nixon, and have had a huge percentage of our population incarcerated as a slave workforce, but the beginning of the end for us over here was turning our informative, regulated news shows into unregulated entertainment. Watch out for your BBC, it's been getting less and less reliable for me, and I can see the bias more every day. You've also had a LOT of attacks on your wonderful national healthcare system, so I would imagine there are people paying to see stories like that. We never got a national program, and ours is quite simply pathetic. So many private hands out for what should be public monies! I paid into our Medicare system all my life, and they've now purposely made it so complicated you have to hire someone to help you decide which plans and supplements to buy (yes, still making monthly payments for health insurance at 65).

Yes I can see that happening here,  more and more of  our NHS is in private hands via various contracts,  it is very hard here for people to find an NHS dentist for example.

By dumbing down TV,  (people seem obsessed with reality tv) and the news we are not doing anyone any favous, there are good science programs on.

We have a serious knife crime problem here (alone) and no one seems willing or capable of debating the issue, the causes and what we should do to stop it.  So it just carries on, innocent people dying and no one gets a grip.

At least there are other channels e,g ITV and Channel 4 that also have news, but with a different perspective so to get a objective view watch more than 1 news source.

22 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

We've been losing wages in the US since the time of Nixon, and have had a huge percentage of our population incarcerated as a slave workforce,

On a slight tangent here,  what came out of that story from a month or two ago, where a truck was found on the US side of the US / Mexico border with  immigrants (mostly dead I think) in the back having been smuggled across the border.   The driver escaped I think but may have been apprehended.

It hit the news here,  then went silent.

It seems human life is, to many not worth very much, when money is involved, so that seems to link with people being in as you said "slave workforce".

 

 

[Phi for All]

10 minutes ago, paulsutton said:

We have a serious knife crime problem here (alone) and no one seems willing or capable of debating the issue, the causes and what we should do to stop it.  So it just carries on, innocent people dying and no one gets a grip.

Do you? Or are your police reporting the most violent crimes differently now? Your own BBC says that for every 6 knifings, 6 people are attacked by broken bottles or clubs, and 79 people are assaulted without a weapon. The knifings can certainly be more lethal, but it's also an opportunity to connect an ethnic group to the attacks. If you're like the US, it's reported that young black males are the ones being caught with weapons, but you never hear that they're also the largest victims of assault by weapons. 

[Peterkin]

54 minutes ago, paulsutton said:

...  people are worried their way of life will be some how impacted by immigration oddly immigration can bring a new perspective to a community, new food from shops opening up selling different goods to other shops. 

The propaganda goes far deeper, wider and is more insidious than 'their way of life will be some how impacted'. There is a whole, interwoven narrative about job-losses, erosion of social services because of increased demand by outsiders, whites becoming a minority "in our own country", large immigrant families displacing their own children in the better schools, or overburdening the schools, or demanding a change the curriculum to include foreign religious teaching, more agile dark-skinned athletes pushing them out of sport teams or getting preference; marrying and/or impregnating their daughters; crime, especially violent crime, such as gangs, gun and drug traffic; escalation of illegal incomers because 'they' will shelter their compatriots. And that's just the immigrant story. The African-Americans pose a separate but overlapping array of threats. And that's before the propaganda-mill even gets started on the gay/feminist/socialist agenda of "the extreme left", which wants to suppress innovation and enterprise, impose exorbitant taxes, take our guns, pick-up trucks, cattle, motherhood and Liberty, the same way they've already stolen Christmas, the Sanctity of the Flag, patriarchal privilege and Family Values (I'm not sure about apple pie).... The fear and loathing never end. 

Edited August 24, 2022 by Peterkin

[paulsutton]

2 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

Do you? Or are your police reporting the most violent crimes differently now? Your own BBC says that for every 6 knifings, 6 people are attacked by broken bottles or clubs, and 79 people are assaulted without a weapon. The knifings can certainly be more lethal, but it's also an opportunity to connect an ethnic group to the attacks. If you're like the US, it's reported that young black males are the ones being caught with weapons, but you never hear that they're also the largest victims of assault by weapons. 

Well the current shooting of a 9 year old girl (white) is hitting the headlines more, very little about the other similar incidents in Liverpool over the past week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-62658221

So yeah,  getting a proper picture of what is going on is rather difficult,  because one news story can dominate so much of the news (1.2 hour programme) it leaves little time for other stories to be covered.

Look at the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021,  it dominated the news, at the same time there was a major earthquake in Haiti (I think) which barely made the news,  until some arrived in the US as refugees and were apparently deported 

 

[Peterkin]

11 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

If you're like the US, it's reported that young black males are the ones being caught with weapons,

...but not that they're the ones being stopped and searched...

[paulsutton]

6 minutes ago, Peterkin said:

The propaganda goes far deeper, wider and is more insidious than 'their way of life will be some how impacted'. There is a whole, interwoven narrative about job-losses, erosion of social services because of increased demand by outsiders, whites becoming a minority "in our own country", large immigrant families displacing their own children in the schools and demanding a change the curriculum to include foreign religious teaching, more agile dark-skinned athletes pushing them out of sport teams, and marrying and/or impregnating their daughters; crime, especially violent crime, such as gangs, gun and drug traffic, escalation of illegal incomers because 'they' will shelter their compatriots. And that's just the immigrant store. The African-Americans pose a whole different, if overlapping array of threats. And that's before the propaganda-mill even gets started on the gay/feminist/socialist agenda of "the extreme left", which wants to suppress innovation and enterprise, impose exorbitant taxes, take our guns, pick-up trucks, cattle, motherhood and Liberty, the same way they've already stolen Christmas, the Sanctity of the Flag, and Family Values.... The fear and loathing never end. 

A lot of this seems very similar what happened in Germany during the 1930s as Hitler and the Nazi Party rose to power and tried to create a master race and remove anyone who didn't fit in to the Aryan race profile. 

Of course learning history you see parallels, by rewriting this out of history (or trying to) there is no historical event timeline to make comparisons to., With critical thinking and questioning you can challenge the propaganda. 

"dark-skinned athletes pushing them out of sport teams"

Reminds me of remember the titans (film) but that is based on a true story,   I am not going to say too much as I don't want to in inadvertently add in a spoiler.  But that was set in 1971 so around the time of Nixon, and as stated earlier post Nixon was about the time everything started to go wrong.

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, Phi for All said:

I associate this with Christian religious affiliations mostly, but it's not quite like the Amish, where they didn't want their children exposed to modern thinking. This seems more like parents protecting their children from outlooks that might make their lives difficult, or lifestyles that might expose them to harsh criticism. It's better to fit in than to be happy for these people, and I can't help but notice how well that serves the wealth extremists.

I do not think that is accurate, there are big differences in ideology and approach, and especially the religious right had always used wedge issues (evolution, race etc.) to exclude critical thinking approaches. But in parallel there has been a systemic change, in which increasingly high-schools cater to grades and both, parents and students are increasingly invested in optimizing that part at the cost of more complex intellectual development. 

If you cannot quantify it via a simple test it is of no interest to any party (except the teacher, perhaps). Increasingly, even good students seek out accomodations in college so that they can a score boost over their peers. Highschool teachers have started to provide model answers so that the student can memorize them and so on. Academic standards are falling, grade inflation is real, and administration is more than happy with that, as long a it puts bums on a seat.

Try to make them think critically and ask open questions? Student evaluations will skewer you and there will be discussions with the dean. Better hope you are tenured. Add that together with increasing anxiety and the comfort of just knowing simple facts and you have a recipe to kneecap critical thinking skills without actually actively trying to do so. Perhaps it is not as bleak as I make it sound, but the trend over the last 10 years or so is going into that direction. In part it is because much of the critical thinking development had been moved from school to college in the past, but now, especially across North America (but also elsewhere) college is seen as an investment to build a career based on degrees. Academic skills per se are taking a bit of a back seat.  

And to be fair, I do see their point to some degree. If you paid tens of thousands of dollars and fail to get a degree, it can financially ruin you or put you on a very bad trajectory.

[Peterkin]

1 hour ago, paulsutton said:

A lot of this seems very similar what happened in Germany during the 1930s as Hitler and the Nazi Party rose to power and tried to create a master race and remove anyone who didn't fit in to the Aryan race profile. 

No kidding! It was a fiction then, as it is now. But it's one of the best stick (they have wronged you; they're out to get you) and carrot (reclaim your birthright to former glory, however illusory) strategy never gets used up: there is an infinite well of grievance in the breast of every man who feels inadequate or insecure. 

 

1 hour ago, paulsutton said:

With critical thinking and questioning you can challenge the propaganda. 

Yea... People don't like that. Put the word 'critical' in race theory or mass or anything at all, those same people feel unjustly accused.  

1 hour ago, paulsutton said:

as stated earlier post Nixon was about the time everything started to go wrong.

That was not an accident or coincidence. https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/why-todays-gop-crackup-is-the-final-unraveling-of-nixons-southern-strategy/

Quote

The GOP finds itself trapped in a marriage that has not only gone bad but is coming apart in full public view. After five decades of shrewd strategy, the Republican coalition Richard Nixon put together in 1968—welcoming the segregationist white South into the Party of Lincoln—is now devouring itself in ugly, spiteful recriminations.

 

[paulsutton]

7 hours ago, Peterkin said:

No kidding! It was a fiction then, as it is now. But it's one of the best stick (they have wronged you; they're out to get you) and carrot (reclaim your birthright to former glory, however illusory) strategy never gets used up: there is an infinite well of grievance in the breast of every man who feels inadequate or insecure. 

 

Yea... People don't like that. Put the word 'critical' in race theory or mass or anything at all, those same people feel unjustly accused.  

That was not an accident or coincidence. https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/why-todays-gop-crackup-is-the-final-unraveling-of-nixons-southern-strategy/

 

Interesting artifice  so i guess the fear about Trump being president is now rearing its head again only the world (and the us) has changed so much since 2016 (BLM, Pandemic) that the momentum for change is stronger or he will be back as president again.

I can understand the removal of the confederate flag , but should we remove(Ban)  ALL symbols relating to this including statues,?  we need some reminder what happened so hopefully future generations can learn.  in the same way as we need to remember what happened in Germany in the 1930s. 

 

[CharonY]

Statues reminding us of the atrocities? Sure. Statues celebrating those responsible for it? No.

A Hitler Statues is not a good way to remember the holocaust.

[paulsutton]

9 hours ago, paulsutton said:

A lot of this seems very similar what happened in Germany during the 1930s as Hitler and the Nazi Party rose to power and tried to create a master race and remove anyone who didn't fit in to the Aryan race profile. 

 

 

I would guess the main difference between1930s and now is we have the internet,  but as we have determined little in the way of critical thinking skills.

[mistermack]

On 8/23/2022 at 10:27 PM, TheVat said:

Biden has eighteen months to awaken to the realities of the aging process that are pretty evident to others.  I don't want him to run because I don't like him, but because I do like him.  He's earned a rest.  I believe that, in his heart, Joe understands how vital younger blood is for the Democratic party, and will eventually throw his support that way.

The gamblers think he WILL run, going by the odds quoted. But if he doesn't, then the democratic favourite after him is Kamala Harris, at 14 to 1 odds. 

But the odds on the next best democrat will shorten enormously, if Biden decides not to run. So if you are Joe Biden, you are in a position to make a lot of money, if you know for a fact right now that you are not going to run. 

If I was Biden, I would be watching the polls, or hoping for a miracle. If neither change in his favour, I don't think he'll stand. So I think it's likely that Harris WILL be the democrat candidate when election time comes round, if nothing much changes. (except the betting odds) 

Which would make her a very worthwhile bet right now, at 14 to 1, or +1400 .

[dimreepr]

3 hours ago, mistermack said:

The gamblers think he WILL run, going by the odds quoted. But if he doesn't, then the democratic favourite after him is Kamala Harris, at 14 to 1 odds. 

But the odds on the next best democrat will shorten enormously, if Biden decides not to run. So if you are Joe Biden, you are in a position to make a lot of money, if you know for a fact right now that you are not going to run. 

If I was Biden, I would be watching the polls, or hoping for a miracle. If neither change in his favour, I don't think he'll stand. So I think it's likely that Harris WILL be the democrat candidate when election time comes round, if nothing much changes. (except the betting odds) 

Which would make her a very worthwhile bet right now, at 14 to 1, or +1400 .

The odds are, the house always win's, until they don't...

Edited August 25, 2022 by dimreepr

[Peterkin]

6 hours ago, paulsutton said:

so i guess the fear about Trump being president is now rearing its head again only the world (and the us) has changed so much since 2016 (BLM, Pandemic) that the momentum for change is stronger or he will be back as president again.

It's not 'momentum'; it's a deliberately engineered and driven international rightward push. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/15/far-right-extremism-global-problem-worldwide-solutions/ , and it's not about change, but the consolidation of power in non-democratic agents. See, there are two problems with democracy: people who understand their own self-interest move toward social services and environmental issues (to improve their living conditions) and the most obvious place to get the wherewithal for those improvements is the enormous caches of wealth accumulated by the uber-rich. The easiest way to stop that trend is to keep yelling "The Economy's on fire and your children will all starve to death!" and "Those Others want your stuff!",  so the uber-rich can keep raking it in and give none of it back. To this end, they support the fire-bell ringing politicians - as long as they're useful. It doesn't need to be Trump, a Cruz, DeSantis  or Rubio will do (I don't think Pence has the requisite bluster; he looks too much like Biden) to keep the yobs and chavs at one another's throats while the overlords gobble up what's left of the planet.  

 

6 hours ago, paulsutton said:

I can understand the removal of the confederate flag , but should we remove(Ban)  ALL symbols relating to this including statues,?  we need some reminder what happened so hopefully future generations can learn.  in the same way as we need to remember what happened in Germany in the 1930s. 

That's a whole other basket of fish. Let's not try unpacking it here.