Does the Market Always decide? An application for AI?

[chrisjones]

Does the Market Always decide? An application for AI?


I think that the markets require directional corrections and tweaks however both UK Tory doctrine and governments around the globe believe that the market always decides. Ai is now sufficiently advanced to provide suggestions on legislative and policy tweaks to ensure that the market finds the best way forward the majority of the time through both countrywide and global ai cooperation whilst accounting for disparities in political and cultural systems around the globe. However I can foresee glaring problems with the idea, if there were such a system errors would occur when the ai decisions that the ai system made would have to be humanized and translated and the output of the ai decisions met the dirty, competitive, partisan and biased political systems. I could also foresee that the governments would become over-reliant on such systems and neglect the human filtering and triaging of such algorithmic ai decisions.

[swansont]

The market does not decide, at least not completely. If it did, I would not see people complaining that dresses do not (in general) have pockets. The market does not decide when there are huge corporations that use their size  and influence to stifle competition and keep innovation from the market.

What is the connection to AI?

 

[Endy0816]

There's just limits on what the Invisible hand can do and how fast it can do it. It will push back against bad policy and bad businesses, but this isn't an instant process.

Often as not it may not decide against you too. Shouldn't imagine unregulated markets make everything peachy. It's goal is efficiency, not necessarily you eating.

On AI, I think it's starting to happen though mainly via businesses. They can act just as illogical at times so I'm not sure how it will go longterm.

At least in theory a wholly planned economy can work as well as one more free market based.

[Peterkin]

1 hour ago, chrisjones said:

I think that the markets require directional corrections and tweaks

What market are you talking about?There are all kinds of business dealings going on all over the world in a whole lot of different media, via a lot of different monetary devices on various legal and financial platforms. What, specifically, requires direction and tweaking? And why?

1 hour ago, chrisjones said:

both UK Tory doctrine and governments around the globe believe that the market always decides.

That's a doctrine exactly as effective as the divine right of kings or the infallibility of the pope. Sounds lofty and comprehensive, even while it means nothing.

1 hour ago, chrisjones said:

Ai is now sufficiently advanced to provide suggestions on legislative and policy tweaks to ensure that the market finds the best way forward the majority of the time

Best in what sense? By what underlying principle or desired outcome - and desired by whom, for whose benefit?

 

1 hour ago, chrisjones said:

However I can foresee glaring problems with the idea, if there were such a system errors would occur when the ai decisions that the ai system made would have to be humanized and translated and the output of the ai decisions met the dirty, competitive, partisan and biased political systems.

The dirty, competitive, partisan political systems are entirely human. They're already controlled, to a large extent, by economic interests. All the computer is expected to do is calculate the cost/profit ratios and transfer the funds. That is the least error-prone component of the system.

I suspect your grasp on economic theory is not very firm yet. Here is an entertaining beginner's guide. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/270750.A_Tenured_Professor  It's a novel, not very long and easy to read, that tells you more about how "the market" operates than many difficult essays would.

[chrisjones]

1 hour ago, Peterkin said:

What market are you talking about?There are all kinds of business dealings going on all over the world in a whole lot of different media, via a lot of different monetary devices on various legal and financial platforms. What, specifically, requires direction and tweaking? And why?

That's a doctrine exactly as effective as the divine right of kings or the infallibility of the pope. Sounds lofty and comprehensive, even while it means nothing.

Best in what sense? By what underlying principle or desired outcome - and desired by whom, for whose benefit?

 

The dirty, competitive, partisan political systems are entirely human. They're already controlled, to a large extent, by economic interests. All the computer is expected to do is calculate the cost/profit ratios and transfer the funds. That is the least error-prone component of the system.

I suspect your grasp on economic theory is not very firm yet. Here is an entertaining beginner's guide. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/270750.A_Tenured_Professor  It's a novel, not very long and easy to read, that tells you more about how "the market" operates than many difficult essays would.

1: the question " What market are you talking about?" 

 The answer:  read "I think that the markets require directional corrections and tweaks "

2: the question "That's a doctrine exactly as effective as the divine right of kings" 

 Answer: Occurrences of blind adherence to the doctrine have shaped the modern history of humanity.

3: the question " Best in what sense? By what underlying principle or desired outcome - and desired by whom, for whose benefit?"

Answer: read " I could also foresee that the governments would become over-reliant on such systems and neglect the human filtering and triaging of such algorithmic ai decisions. Suggesting that ai systems need to be programmed in such a way to achieve the desired outcome to that end read my signature below :0)

[Ghideon]

31 minutes ago, chrisjones said:

The answer:  read "I think that the markets require directional corrections and tweaks "

Capital market, stock market, bond market, ETF, commodities, currency or some other financial market? Or maybe the power market for trading electricity? I'm curious, do you by "AI" mean some generalised model that should work with all kinds of markets?

[Peterkin]

1 hour ago, chrisjones said:

Answer: read " I could also foresee that the governments would become over-reliant on such systems and neglect the human filtering and triaging of such algorithmic ai decisions. Suggesting that ai systems need to be programmed in such a way to achieve the desired outcome to that end read my signature below

Which answers none of my questions, including the central one: What are you talking about??

59 minutes ago, Ghideon said:

"AI" mean some generalised model that should work with all kinds of markets?

'Work with' implies that a tool or methodology is applied to specific and defined purpose.  None has been identified.

[chrisjones]

8 hours ago, Ghideon said:

Capital market, stock market, bond market, ETF, commodities, currency or some other financial market? Or maybe the power market for trading electricity? I'm curious, do you by "AI" mean some generalised model that should work with all kinds of markets?

 

2 minutes ago, chrisjones said:

Answer: read tweaks to ensure that the market finds the best way forward the majority of the time through both countrywide and global ai cooperation whilst accounting for disparities in political and cultural systems around the globe. Suggesting tailored ai systems in the context of political and cultural systems around the globe but otherwise interconnected in the context of cooperation, calculation, and interoperability to achieve synergistic global solutions to global problems such as climate change, conflicts, the energy crisis, and the boom or bust cycle.

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by chrisjones

[swansont]

4 hours ago, chrisjones said:

tweaks to ensure that the market finds the best way forward the majority of the time through both countrywide and global ai cooperation whilst accounting for disparities in political and cultural systems around the globe

This reads like word salad, TBH. How does one measure what is the "best way forward"? Is there an objective measure of this? What is it?

 

[Peterkin]

6 hours ago, chrisjones said:

Answer: read tweaks to ensure that the market finds the best way forward the majority of the time through both countrywide and global ai cooperation whilst accounting for disparities in political and cultural systems around the globe.

Gobbledegook repeated and bolded , nevertheless remains gobbledegook. If you won't define the topic and clarify the question, there can be no discussion.

[Ghideon]

20 hours ago, chrisjones said:

An application for AI?

After reading your repeated parts of text my answer is no: as far as I know it is beyond the limits of current capabilities of AI (machine learning); AI can not yet be applied to something as vaguely described and unclear as the things stated in the opening post. 

[chrisjones]

5 hours ago, Ghideon said:

After reading your repeated parts of text my answer is no: as far as I know it is beyond the limits of current capabilities of AI (machine learning); AI can not yet be applied to something as vaguely described and unclear as the things stated in the opening post. 

One person's ability to describe a concept doesn't negate the idea as a possibility and people's inability to grasp the concept doesn't either. However, I have 20 years of experience on forums, and this thread has developed as expected primarily because it's more important who offers an idea than the idea itself and possibly because it's an original or novel iteration of the application of ai technology. 

However, if you want to continue the discussion I will also proffer this thought I had on the subject today.

I have suggested a cooperative interoperable ai system to solve critical global issues that accounts for the disparities and variables of each country around the globe however I don't think a purely overarching centralized system would be welcomed due to longstanding mistrust and conflicts between nations. For instance, would Iran welcome such a system if it were based in the USA? To that end, I would suggest an ai system in each country operated by their expert nationals that had a base in a neutral country such as Ireland. Each system would have the ability to cooperate with other systems around the globe through the neutral hub and be able to consult and talk to other systems through the neutral hub. That would provide ownership, independence, and neutrality on an important psychological level for each nation making the concept infinitely more acceptable to their political leaders and their public.

Edited August 26, 2022 by chrisjones

[Peterkin]

1 hour ago, chrisjones said:

One person's ability to describe a concept doesn't negate the idea as a possibility and people's inability to grasp the concept doesn't either.

One person's [particularly the OP's] inability or unwillingness to describe, define or explain the concept he or she wishes to discuss, does, however, limit the possibilities of a discussion, as other people's inability to grasp the incoherent idea of the OP, does also. 

 

1 hour ago, chrisjones said:

and this thread has developed as expected primarily because it's more important who offers an idea than the idea itself

We have very few clues as to who that may be, which gives us very little basis for bias.

There may be an idea,  but as long as it's incomprehensible, it has constrained scope for development, which is probably why it hasn't.

1 hour ago, chrisjones said:

However, if you want to continue the discussion I will also proffer this thought I had on the subject today

If you define your terms, before launching a proffered solution to an unspecified problem in an unspecified category of unspecified subjects in an unspecified context for an unspecified purpose according and unspecified principle - sure. 

IOW - What are you talking about?

Edited August 26, 2022 by Peterkin

[iNow]

AI and algorithms from big banks already dominate the market making massive trades every few microseconds.  They’re buying and dumping stocks to optimize values to a fraction of a penny, just doing it in such huge volumes and scales that tens of millions of dollars are being made traded or lost. 

They’re so fast, in fact, that being a mere 20 miles closer to the data source and having a slightly faster receipt time of data coming through the fiber optic lines (like from Chicago to New York, placing the servers on the closer shore versus the other side of the island) is enough to beat out other banks and have the stock bought and sold before the other algorithm even transmits the purchase order. 

So, yes. IMO it is true that AI dominates the market, but I also doubt that’s what you mean and like others here still remain unclear of WTF the OP is actually asking or proposing. 

[Ghideon]

3 hours ago, chrisjones said:

One person's ability to describe a concept doesn't negate the idea as a possibility

Ok. When an idea is tricky to formulate it may help to ask questions instead of posting repetitions? Anyway, here is a quick take on how to formulate a starting point for discussing what the OP maybe is about:

Quote

We know that Artificial Intelligence is in use by firms that engage in financial activity on financial markets, for instance algorithmic trading (see @iNow's example above). We also know that regulatory bodies, established by governments or other organizations, oversee the functioning and fairness of financial markets. Two questions for discussion:
1: In contrast to the firms, how do regulatory bodies use AI to improve their capabilities to fulfil their missions? For instance by looking for signs of market manipulation or activities that are not compliant with local regulations?
2: Let's assume that a regulatory body have qualitative measures and models for for instance ”fairness” and ”well functioning” for a market. Is AI used, or could AI be used, to simulate or evaluate proposed policy changes? For instance to increase the chance of successful implementation and to predict the outcome of policy changes?  Could AI, as currently available, even be used to analyse existing policies and propose new and novel policy changes that improves for instance fairness?

Note: The above text is an illustration of what the OP might want to discuss, not actual questions I have. I have no intention to hijack the thread, I'm just curious about the topic; hence this attempt at helping @chrisjones to formulate something that can be discussed.

 

[Peterkin]

1 hour ago, Ghideon said:

When an idea is tricky to formulate it may help to ask questions instead of posting repetitions?

I tried that approach first. It didn't work. 

[chrisjones]

4 hours ago, Peterkin said:

One person's [particularly the OP's] inability or unwillingness to describe, define or explain the concept he or she wishes to discuss, does, however, limit the possibilities of a discussion, as other people's inability to grasp the incoherent idea of the OP, does also. 

 

We have very few clues as to who that may be, which gives us very little basis for bias.

There may be an idea,  but as long as it's incomprehensible, it has constrained scope for development, which is probably why it hasn't.

If you define your terms, before launching a proffered solution to an unspecified problem in an unspecified category of unspecified subjects in an unspecified context for an unspecified purpose according and unspecified principle - sure. 

IOW - What are you talking about?

I have a vasovagal syncope and a few weeks ago when I hit the deck face down and blacked out I heard the voices of 1000's of people at once rather like the film Bruce Almighty....................therefore in the tradition of the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy I've chosen to name my idea as " The God Machine "   🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Sensei]

On 8/25/2022 at 7:43 PM, swansont said:

The market does not decide, at least not completely. If it did, I would not see people complaining that dresses do not (in general) have pockets.

The phrase "The market always decides" means a battle between supply and demand.

If people are buying dresses without pockets then apparently there is a demand for them.

On 8/25/2022 at 7:43 PM, swansont said:

The market does not decide when there are huge corporations that use their size  and influence to stifle competition and keep innovation from the market.

 

Huge corporations make unique things, or try to make unique things, to have monopoly. Also, patents and licenses reduce the chance of competition.

In the past, e.g. hammer were made by craftsman, now hammers have a brand printed or engraved on them. And some people (snobs?) buy stuff based on brand recognition. They're not just looking for a hammer, they're looking for a hammer with a specific brand, meaning no substitutes.

[swansont]

4 minutes ago, Sensei said:

The phrase "The market always decides" means a battle between supply and demand.

If people are buying dresses without pockets then apparently there is a demand for them.

If there are no dresses with pockets being sold, they have no choice. The market has not fulfilled the demand

[Peterkin]

16 minutes ago, chrisjones said:

I have a vasovagal syncope and a few weeks ago when I hit the deck face down and blacked out I heard the voices of 1000's of people at once rather like the film Bruce Almighty....................therefore in the tradition of the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy I've chosen to name my idea as " The God Machine "   🤣🤣🤣🤣

Well, Okay then!

[chrisjones]

I can't seem to quote your post-Ghideon however you said "  Is AI used, or could AI be used, to simulate or evaluate proposed policy changes? For instance to increase the chance of successful implementation and to predict the outcome of policy changes?  Could AI, as currently available, even be used to analyze existing policies and propose new and novel policy changes that improve for instance fairness?"

That is what I am proposing, I think the system could be employed to " suggest" better planning and policy strategies and outcomes and employed to resolve many issues such as water resources, agriculture, climate mitigation and adaption, conflict resolution strategies, etc. However what makes my particular idea novel is the emphasis on independent neutrality and the global distribution of cooperative country-based nodes of the system I think.

Edited August 27, 2022 by chrisjones

[Peterkin]

17 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Huge corporations make unique things, or try to make unique things,

They patent mundane things that can be produced in enormous quantity of identical item at low cost. The consumer is stuck with those five models, especially if three of them brands are owned by the same corporation. (Did you ever have buy a pair of eyeglasses between 2000 and 20018? They were all the exactly the same shape, including the expensive 'designer' ones.) 

19 minutes ago, swansont said:

The market has not fulfilled the demand

Where does an individual consumer voice the demand?

[iNow]

1 hour ago, Peterkin said:

Where does an individual consumer voice the demand?

At the point of transaction / money exchange, if the vendor has what they want at the right price. 

At the transaction point of a competitor if they have better product, better price, or better service. 

At the patent attorneys office, if the product exists but is being cockblocked by a major corporation or actual person.

At the customer service contact point, at the handmade / handcrafted market, or in the consumers own garage / entrepreneurial startup office if the product or service doesn’t yet exist at all. 

[zapatos]

7 hours ago, chrisjones said:

However, I have 20 years of experience on forums, and this thread has developed as expected primarily because it's more important who offers an idea than the idea itself and possibly because it's an original or novel iteration of the application of ai technology. 

A much more polite version of "Just like Galileo I am being persecuted and censored because you refuse to accept anything that does not adhere to your dogma or originate from a famous person/someone who has been on this site a long time."

[chrisjones]

Just one point I'd like to clarify I don't think ai systems are perfect or infallible therefore I have proposed that this system would "Suggest" better strategies and it's somewhat interchangeable with "Augment" or augmentation. My reasoning is that I think that ai can't match human empathy but merely mimics it. Therefore I think that the outputs from this system would still have to be graded and filtered by emotionally intelligent humans.