Covid behind us? (split from Potential mass strike action in the UK)

[mistermack]

9 hours ago, John Cuthber said:

His "justification" is that "With the pandemic now behind us..."
He's lying; it's not behind us, it is killing about 100 people a day.
For comparison, only about half that many get killed in road accidents and nobody is saying that "road accidents are behind us".

Your facts and reasoning are both faulty. Firstly, deaths in England are down to thirty a day, and falling rapidly, and without an uptick will be bottoming out around zero in about a week. (although an uptick is always possible)

Secondly, nobody is calling road accidents a pandemic. Yes, road accidents are not behind us, but they are not at pandemic levels. 

Similarly, there are still some covid deaths nationwide, but they are no longer growing at pandemic levels. It's mostly mopping up the unvaccinated elderlies now. 

It is a bit optimistic to say that it's behind us but I wouldn't say that he's lying.

[CharonY]

32 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Secondly, nobody is calling road accidents a pandemic. Yes, road accidents are not behind us, but they are not at pandemic levels. 

Pandemic does not refer to severity, it refers to spread of a disease across the globe. As such it is clear that we are still very much in the pandemic and assertions that the pandemic is behind us is factually wrong. 

One could speculate whether the deadliest parts are behind us, but even that is difficult to ascertain. The ongoing Omicron wave has been the deadliest in many regions of the world, mostly because it infected so many people. Data also suggests that waning immunity might be an issue and if not up to date on vaccines, elderly still disproportionately die. While the death rate is still much lower among vaccinated and especially boosted individuals compared to the unvaccinated, it is not correct to assume that only the unvaccinated are going to die.

On top there are the issues of post-viral infection syndromes. While these are nothing new (some folks have severe long-term issues due to influenza and other infections, for example), few infections swept in that number through the population. Research is ongoing to assess the magnitude but we are still very much in the data collecting phase.

I.e. the impact of a disease is not only measured in deaths, but also overall loss of quality of life/health and it is premature to declare that things are over. After all, the expectation of an end was done in the past multiple times, but what is actually needed is an action plan going forward.

I will also pre-empt some assumptions based on other endemic diseases with seasonal outbreaks by saying that COVID-19 has different characteristics, since Omicron it is circulating almost constantly at a relative high rate in the population, almost regardless of the season. There will be regional differences, but things like less time outdoors, start of school/university and so on, can favour new outbreaks (as might new variants).

In contrast, we see almost no measurable circulation of flu outside the flu season, suggesting that a mix of lifestyle and immunity (vaccinated or otherwise) is capable of limiting outbreaks for most of the year.

 

 

[John Cuthber]

13 hours ago, mistermack said:

Your facts and reasoning are both faulty. Firstly, deaths in England are down to thirty a day, and falling rapidly, and without an uptick will be bottoming out around zero in about a week. (although an uptick is always possible)

Secondly, nobody is calling road accidents a pandemic. Yes, road accidents are not behind us, but they are not at pandemic levels. 

Similarly, there are still some covid deaths nationwide, but they are no longer growing at pandemic levels. It's mostly mopping up the unvaccinated elderlies now. 

It is a bit optimistic to say that it's behind us but I wouldn't say that he's lying.

Covid deaths re oscillating between about 30 and about 300
There may have only been 30 today, But there were 90 on the day that article was published. Since he said "it was behind us" the number has risen as far as 300.

Nobody said that anyone was calling road deaths a pandemic.
So your point there is  a straw man.
There is no mechanism for this pandemic to "end", any more than we can eliminate the common cold.
So, his claim that it's over is clearly wrong.
The question of whether he's a liar or an idiot remains unresolved.
Since his claim that it's behind us is factually wrong, he should not be using it as the basis for policy, should he?

6 hours ago, MigL said:

Again, why are these people getting elected ?

Because we have a stupid electoral system.

At least the Americans have the sense to have just two significant parties. 

Our "First past the post" system almost ensures a dictatorship by a minority.
More people voted against Johnson than for him, but his party won a huge majority.

 

[mistermack]

You said yesterday : 

On 9/6/2022 at 11:00 AM, John Cuthber said:

His "justification" is that "With the pandemic now behind us..."
He's lying; it's not behind us, it is killing about 100 people a day.

Well firstly, the pandemic IS behind us. Covid is still around, but not as at pandemic levels. You don't have to wait till the last covid case ends to say that. So wrong reasoning, he's not lying. 

Secondly, here is the latest figures download for deaths. ( They have probably fallen further since the 29th ) The chances are, given the trend, that they're bumping along in ones and twos now. 

So yes, wrong facts. It's probably killing one or two a day now, not 100.

Edited September 7, 2022 by mistermack

[swansont]

1 hour ago, mistermack said:

Well firstly, the pandemic IS behind us. Covid is still around, but not as at pandemic levels.

What defines a “pandemic level”?

[John Cuthber]

On 9/7/2022 at 11:29 AM, mistermack said:

but not as at pandemic levels

Pandemic is not a "level" it's a distribution.
But, assuming you continue with your "unorthodox" definition, when the number gets above 100 again, will you accept that you are wrong?

 

Incidentally there were actually 3 elements to his "justification".
One was that covid is over

the second was that we have finished with brexit and the third is that the war in Ukraine is no longer an issue.

There's a pattern here and it's that JRM is either an idiot or a liar (or both).

[Peterkin]

A lot of people - most notably and influentially, conservative politicians - have declared Covid "over". (But the economy! The economy! The economy!)

A lot of people are tired or have given up. Many are just bored with restrictions and stopped caring. Of course, the health-care systems are collapsing and people are dying in emergency waiting rooms. But they're wandering the streets and retail outlets without masks and pretending they're immune when they're not. Meanwhile...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#countries-cases