Putin has attacked Poland?

[MigL]

We are discussing Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and the ensuing bloodshed and destruction.
V Putin was not s'scared' when he launched the invasion; he thought it would be a cake-walk and over in a couple of days.
To claim that he is a 'scared little boy' now that the tables have turned is absolving him of the evil decisions he previously made.

Should a gambler who bets it all, thinking he'll win big, be given his money back now that he's impoverished ?
Tell it to your bookie.

[dimreepr]

20 hours ago, geordief said:

Does it follow that Saddam was not a bully?

He met his end with more dignity than his executioners

Or can you be  a bully  and still  be physically brave?

I wasn't there when he met his end, so I can't rate his dignity in the face of death; is it bravery though? 

Being brave is about doing something, by choice, that you're afraid to do; he just put on a brave face about something he couldn't control, and that's just acting.

So no, it doesn't follow that he wasn't a bully.

20 hours ago, geordief said:

Was he just deluded into thinking  those who did not share his allegiances   did not deserve respect?

No, he was just a frightened little boy, who was taught to think like that...

19 hours ago, MigL said:

We are discussing Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and the ensuing bloodshed and destruction.
V Putin was not s'scared' when he launched the invasion; he thought it would be a cake-walk and over in a couple of days.
To claim that he is a 'scared little boy' now that the tables have turned is absolving him of the evil decisions he previously made.

Isn't that the MO of a bully?

19 hours ago, MigL said:

Should a gambler who bets it all, thinking he'll win big, be given his money back now that he's impoverished ?
Tell it to your bookie.

This is an interesting question, who's feeding on who?

I think he should be given, back, enough money to live on; and what if the bookie is Trump?

My point is, "war is bad-mkay" which costs more than just lives and if you want to stop a war (which no one's ever won or lost), first understand your enemy opponent, second scare persuade them enough to stop.

[MigL]

2 hours ago, dimreepr said:

My point is, "war is bad-mkay" which costs more than just lives and if you want to stop a war (which no one's ever won or lost), first understand your enemy opponent, second scare persuade them enough to stop.

And my point is people have to be responsible, and be held accountable, for their actions/decisions.
Especially when those actions/decisions result in hundred thousands of deaths and whole countries destroyed through no fault of their own.

[dimreepr]

22 hours ago, MigL said:

And my point is people have to be responsible, and be held accountable, for their actions/decisions.
Especially when those actions/decisions result in hundred thousands of deaths and whole countries destroyed through no fault of their own.

I'm not saying he shouldn't be held accountable, I'm saying we personally (as a country) can't do it.

So, given that; shouldn't we at least give trying to understand him a go? And let the diplomats take it from there.

That would be my definition of military intelligence...

[TheVat]

5 hours ago, dimreepr said:

I'm not saying he shouldn't be held accountable, I'm saying we personally (as a country) can't do it.

So, given that; shouldn't we at least give trying to understand him a go? And let the diplomats take it from there.

That would be my definition of military intelligence...

While I am usually one to lean towards diplomacy, I think this might be a Teddy Roosevelt situation (i.e. walk softly and carry a big stick), given that Putin and his inner circle seem to be inoculated against diplomacy and appeals to humanity.  The fact that he has no problem with the new Death by Winter strategy, which is leaving millions of noncombatants in the dark and cold, with a potential for catastrophic loss of life, suggests that it's time for some tough love.  If that doesn't mean military action, then we would have to, along with NATO and other allied nations, take economic warfare to the next level.  Start turning sanctions not just on Russia, but any nations that continue to transact business with Russia.   Tell India, China, Iran, et al:  if you support a war criminal, then we will deem you complicit in war crime and slap you with massive sanctions.

[mistermack]

When news came out of this rocket hitting Poland, I immediately thought it was heavily odds-on the Zelensky had fired it, in a crude attempt to get Russia blamed, and drag NATO into a shooting match. 

Everything that's emerged since has fallen in line with that scenario. Zelensky probably calculated that he could aim it at the countryside, away from habitation, and everybody would go along with the deception and not look too hard at the details. What went wrong was that Polish People died, so the Poles were angry and not at all inclined to go along with it. So it was properly investigated and the source was established as Ukrainian. 

What's telling is that not one media source (that I've seen) has even raised the possibility that it was a deliberate act by Ukrain. Just show that our media are into propeganda, not news.

But NATO probably knows, and are keeping their mouths shut.

[iNow]

3 hours ago, mistermack said:

everybody would go along with the deception and not look too hard at the details.

Yeah. When missiles hit countries unexpectedly, details are the LAST thing anyone considers, requests, or responds to. 

Oh, wait… 

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/the-impact-of-a-single-missile
 

Quote

In response to the blasts, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Marawiecki held an emergency Security Council meeting. The Polish government also raised military readiness.

Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke with President Joe Biden about the blasts. The White House said Biden reiterated to Duda that the US has an “ironclad commitment to NATO.” 

Duda also discussed the incident with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said it was important to find all the facts behind the causes of the explosion.

<…>
Hungary convened a defense council meeting to discuss the blasts, as well as disruptions to oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline.

<…>

Three US officials tell The Associated Press that preliminary findings suggest that the missile that landed in Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to intercept an incoming Russian missile.

Polish President Andrzej Duda says the explosion was “very likely” an “unfortunate accident” caused by an Ukrainian air defense missile, rather than any “intentional attack.” He added that the missile was “most likely” Russian-made, but that there is no current evidence that Russian forces fired it.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed Duda’s conclusion, though he emphasized that “this is not Ukraine’s fault” and that “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine. 

But hey… if this is suddenly a fictional site and you get to pretend Zelenskiy did it, why not go with hobbits… or orcs!! 🙄

Edited November 30, 2022 by iNow

[dimreepr]

17 hours ago, TheVat said:

While I am usually one to lean towards diplomacy, I think this might be a Teddy Roosevelt situation (i.e. walk softly and carry a big stick), given that Putin and his inner circle seem to be inoculated against diplomacy and appeals to humanity.  The fact that he has no problem with the new Death by Winter strategy, which is leaving millions of noncombatants in the dark and cold, with a potential for catastrophic loss of life, suggests that it's time for some tough love.  If that doesn't mean military action, then we would have to, along with NATO and other allied nations, take economic warfare to the next level.  Start turning sanctions not just on Russia, but any nations that continue to transact business with Russia.   Tell India, China, Iran, et al:  if you support a war criminal, then we will deem you complicit in war crime and slap you with massive sanctions.

We have to be just as careful with economic warfare, too much pressure (we force them (and potentially us) into taking sides because of empty belly's and/or a less comfortable life) has a habit of backfiring.

If we hand out more sandwhiches than bullet's, eventually we'll have more live allies than dead friend's...

 

[iNow]

2 hours ago, dimreepr said:

If we hand out more sandwhiches than bullet's, eventually we'll have more live allies than dead friend's...

But the people actually making these decisions and driving these behaviors are hardly themselves suffering for lack of a sandwich.

No... They're instead eating caviar off the backs of strippers and wagyu beef whenever they choose, so this "leverage" you suggest has almost zero likelihood of moving the situation to a better space (despite Archimedes fun quote about the lever just needing to be longer). 

[mistermack]

16 hours ago, iNow said:

But hey… if this is suddenly a fictional site and you get to pretend Zelenskiy did it, why not go with hobbits… or orcs!! 🙄

You have obviously missed the fact that Zelensky has been claiming that Putin did it right from the start. Maybe HE should go with hobbits or orcs, using your 'logic'. 

And that's in spite of the fact that the NATO chiefs knew within hours that it was fired from Ukraine. 

" U.S. president Joe Biden, speaking from the G20 summit in Bali, said that it was "unlikely" that the missile was fired from Russia.^[27]"   

US presidents are not in the habit of excusing russian behaviour. "

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russia for the incident in his nightly video address that day, saying that "Russian missiles hit Poland" and describing it as an infringement upon "collective security" and as a "significant escalation".^[40] Around the same time, foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba labeled the suggestion of the missile being fired by Ukrainian air defense as a "conspiracy theory" promoted by Russia.^[41][42]

The next day, Ukraine's presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak had tweeted that European countries should "close the sky" over Ukraine after the blast.^[43] Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, claimed that Ukraine had evidence of a "Russian trace" in the explosion, without giving any details.^[44] Zelenskyy also said that he had "no doubt that it was not our missile" and that Ukraine should be given access to the site of the explosion.^[45]"

If Zelensky ordered the missile strike, the motive is obvious from the above wikipedia quotes. He wanted to prompt NATO to close the skies over Ukraine. A huge escalation of NATO's involvement. 

Signs that the Poles were less than happy with Zelensky are there to be seen.

" Also on 17 November, Polish officials stated that Ukrainian investigators were likely to be granted access to the site of the explosion.^[29]

On 21 November, it was reported that Ukraine will not be granted access to the investigation by the Polish prosecutor's office.^[30]"

The official NATO line is that a Russian-made Ukrainian air defence missile missed it's target, flew aimlessly to Poland, and exploded on impact. But lots of Ukrainian missiles have missed their targets. Where are the reports of them exploding on impact and killing people? Nowhere. Only the one that hit Poland has done reported damage. Mighty strange. 

Ironically, this incident has probably made the world a little safer, because NATO will now look very carefully at any further scam by Zelensky to drag them deeper into a shooting war. 

[iNow]

28 minutes ago, mistermack said:

You have obviously missed the fact that Zelensky has been claiming that Putin did it right from the start.

I acknowledge the possibility of being wrong. You, however, are asserting not only that he ordered it, but had nefarious intent when doing so. Only one of us is spreading fictions and conspiracies, and it ain't me. 

29 minutes ago, mistermack said:

If Zelensky ordered the missile strike,

But nobody other than you and Russian propagandists think that's the case... IF THEN ELSE... The IF was never validated, hence there's no THEN nor ELSE in your algorithm. The statement can be safely ignored. 

30 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Where are the reports of them exploding on impact and killing people?

They are everywhere, you just have to start using trustworthy and validated information sources to inform your worldviews. 

31 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Nowhere.

Are you familiar with the fallacy of personal incredulity? If not, it's worth looking up. 

[TheVat]

In case y'all are wondering where the Drag NATO Into War theory is coming from....

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/11/17/pers-n17.html

(World Socialist Website)

I had a chuckle at the bit:

And why were they able to precisely target an inhabited building in a sparsely populated rural area? 

7 minutes ago, iNow said:

The IF was never validated, hence there's no THEN nor ELSE in your algorithm. The statement can be safely ignored. 

Syllogism.

 

 

[iNow]

11 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Syllogism

That certainly fits better. Thank you

[mistermack]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Are you familiar with the fallacy of personal incredulity? If not, it's worth looking up.

I nowhere said "I can't believe" about the matter. Maybe you should research the burden of proof a bit. I wrote "nowhere" as an open invitation, because one single example would be enough to disprove it, (which you haven't posted), whereas proving a negative needs either exhaustive research, or proof that the positive is impossible. 

I've seen no reports of damage done by other falling missiles up to now, that's the extent of my claim, and it would be super easy to put me right on that, if actual reports were out there.

But there's a reason that it's unlikely, and that is that the missiles are designed to self-destruct, if they don't hit their target. That's why this one accidentally exploding on impact in Poland is not impossible, but it's pretty far-fetched, especially when Zelensky was flatly denying that Ukraine had fired it in the first place. The evidence of intent is there for all to see. 

It's not incontrovertible, but it stinks. 

[iNow]

8 hours ago, mistermack said:

I've seen no reports of damage done by other falling missiles up to now, that's the extent of my claim, and it would be super easy to put me right on that, if actual reports were out there.

I’m not interested in doing your legwork for you, nor chasing Lucy and the football after I’ve provided examples only for you to merely dismiss them or move the goalposts, but thank you for your kind offer. 

[MigL]

On 11/30/2022 at 2:16 PM, mistermack said:

When news came out of this rocket hitting Poland, I immediately thought it was heavily odds-on the Zelensky had fired it, in a crude attempt to get Russia blamed, and drag NATO into a shooting match. 

I know exactly what you mean.
Those Nazi Ukrainians, and their jewish President, will stop at nothing in an effort to implicate those innocent Russian victims and make them look bad in the eyes of the World.
Those well-intentioned Russians should just leave the Ukraine to their evil ways, and stop trying to help and denazify them.
  

 

[dimreepr]

21 hours ago, iNow said:

But the people actually making these decisions and driving these behaviors are hardly themselves suffering for lack of a sandwich.

No... They're instead eating caviar off the backs of strippers and wagyu beef whenever they choose, so this "leverage" you suggest has almost zero likelihood of moving the situation to a better space (despite Archimedes fun quote about the lever just needing to be longer). 

But that's my point, if we squeeze to hard it's not them who suffers, it's just the pawns and the more pawns we feed/keep onside the better our chances.

That's the equation they (hitler, stalin, putin et al) don't understand and why they always fail, they don't think they need pawns, so why protect them.

18 hours ago, mistermack said:

I nowhere said "I can't believe" about the matter. Maybe you should research the burden of proof a bit. I wrote "nowhere" as an open invitation, because one single example would be enough to disprove it, (which you haven't posted), whereas proving a negative needs either exhaustive research, or proof that the positive is impossible. 

I've seen no reports of damage done by other falling missiles up to now, that's the extent of my claim, and it would be super easy to put me right on that, if actual reports were out there.

But there's a reason that it's unlikely, and that is that the missiles are designed to self-destruct, if they don't hit their target. That's why this one accidentally exploding on impact in Poland is not impossible, but it's pretty far-fetched, especially when Zelensky was flatly denying that Ukraine had fired it in the first place. The evidence of intent is there for all to see. 

It's not incontrovertible, but it stinks. 

Both sides use propaganda in the theatre of war, historically, the trick to telling the good from the bad is, who started it.

So, unless you have extraordinary evidence to present, I'm just going to ignore you... 🤒

People only "go" to war for one reason, they're being attacked...

The excuses for "going" to war, are many and varied... 

[Moontanman]

1 hour ago, dimreepr said:

But that's my point, if we squeeze to hard it's not them who suffers, it's just the pawns and the more pawns we feed/keep onside the better our chances.

Sadly in war as in life, it's the poor and disenfranchised that suffer, pawns as you say. The better fed they are the longer the people incharge can snort coke, eat caviar off the backs of strippers and eat wagyu off... well I'll let your imagination finish that and no i don't need to know where your imagination went with that. 

1 hour ago, dimreepr said:

That's the equation they (hitler, stalin, putin et al) don't understand and why they always fail, they don't think they need pawns, so why protect them.

Sadly the pawns, read true believers, will protect their leaders and lay down their lives to make sure the dear leader has his stripper banquets. 

1 hour ago, dimreepr said:

Both sides use propaganda in the theatre of war, historically, the trick to telling the good from the bad is, who started it.

The first casualty of war is the truth.  

[dimreepr]

22 hours ago, Moontanman said:

Sadly in war as in life, it's the poor and disenfranchised that suffer, pawns as you say. The better fed they are the longer the people incharge can snort coke, eat caviar off the backs of strippers and eat wagyu off... well I'll let your imagination finish that and no i don't need to know where your imagination went with that. 

They are far more of a threat if they're hungry, the only question is, who's the enemy:

If we're the one's that squeezes the economy to the point of hunger, there's nothing easier for the leadership than to point the finger and cry enemy, because they'd be right and the people can see it.

If we're the one's that gives them a sandwhich, they'd still be hungry but with the knowledge of who tried to help.

Even in china, some of the people know what's killing them.

22 hours ago, Moontanman said:

Sadly the pawns, read true believers, will protect their leaders and lay down their lives to make sure the dear leader has his stripper banquets. 

Luckily, every pawn on the board can become a threat to the King, what they truly believe depends on what side of the board they're on.

Even luckier, we have journalist's who will swim in the rankist shit pit to sniff out the truth and wisper it to every pawn that will listen.

22 hours ago, Moontanman said:

The first casualty of war is the truth. 

Fortunately, it's profoundly resistant too. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by dimreepr

[Moontanman]

2 hours ago, dimreepr said:

They are far more of a threat if they're hungry, the only question is, who's the enemy:

If we're the one's that squeezes the economy to the point of hunger, there's nothing easier for the leadership than to point the finger and cry enemy, because they'd be right and the people can see it.

If we're the one's that gives them a sandwhich, they'd still be hungry but with the knowledge of who tried to help.

Even in china, some of the people know what's killing them.

Luckily, every pawn on the board can become a threat to the King, what they truly believe depends on what side of the board they're on.

Even luckier, we have journalist's who will swim in the rankist shit pit to sniff out the truth and wisper it to every pawn that will listen.

Fortunately, it's profoundly resistant too. 

You must live on a different planet than me. 

[dimreepr]

23 hours ago, Moontanman said:

You must live on a different planet than me. 

Not only the same planet but the same (political/physical) hemisphere; for instance, the truth about tobacco battled its way through, possible, the biggest politically monetary economically inspired excuse for a war.

Even the antipode is experiencing the same phenomena; for instance, China, the most restricted and surveilled populations on the planet, the people ALWAYS find out the truth; it's just a question of time...

Which loops back to the topic. 🧐

Edited December 4, 2022 by dimreepr

[MigL]

You suggest that the 'stick' of sanctions and retaliation is ineffective because it only affects the common people, while the despots and their oligarchs are insulated against them.
You suggest the 'carrot' approach of diplomacy and negotiations, but why would the despots negotiate if you don't have any leverage ( lack of 'stick' ) on them ?

What you are in effect proposing is appeasement.
Give away parts of Ukraine, and have her people enslaved for your 'peace of mind'.

And this will work exactly the same next time V Putin wants to annex more territory.

Not everyone who does 'evil' things does so because they are hungry or oppressed.
There are evil people in this world ( not on yours ?? ).
Of all the evil people of the last century, Mussolini, Stalin, Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, Putin and KJU, all looked well-fed to me; maybe Hitler could have used a sandwich.

[Moontanman]

6 minutes ago, MigL said:

You suggest that the 'stick' of sanctions and retaliation is ineffective because it only affects the common people, while the despots and their oligarchs are insulated against them.
You suggest the 'carrot' approach of diplomacy and negotiations, but why would the despots negotiate if you don't have any leverage ( lack of 'stick' ) on them ?

What you are in effect proposing is appeasement.
Give away parts of Ukraine, and have her people enslaved for your 'peace of mind'.

And this will work exactly the same next time V Putin wants to annex more territory.

Not everyone who does 'evil' things does so because they are hungry or oppressed.
There are evil people in this world ( not on yours ?? ).
Of all the evil people of the last century, Mussolini, Stalin, Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, Putin and KJU, all looked well-fed to me; maybe Hitler could have used a sandwich.

As long as it was Vegan bread...🤪

[dimreepr]

21 minutes ago, MigL said:

You suggest that the 'stick' of sanctions and retaliation is ineffective because it only affects the common people

When did I suggest that???

24 minutes ago, MigL said:

What you are in effect proposing is appeasement.
Give away parts of Ukraine, and have her people enslaved for your 'peace of mind'.

What I'm suggesting is, it's up to the Ukrianian to decide what to fight for; what I'm proposing is, we wait and see if the reason, is just another excuse...