Modeling the psychic space

[geordief]

Have there been systematic attempts  to identify psychological  parameters so as to predict behaviour at the individual or group level?

If so,is there a list of these parameters and how successful  have predictions based on them been?

(I don't mean astrological signs😏 )

 

 

[iNow]

[geordief]

34 minutes ago, Lorentz Jr said:

You mean do the social sciences exist? Yes, people try to do that all the time.

 

I am asking whether there are any models of individual  or group  behaviour that are experimentally more successful than others in predicting future outcomes.

 

Not so much what are the ranges of theories but whether any of them have been shown to be effective  in their domain  of applicability.

 

By the way is "the psychic space" a real term ?I just made it up and it seemed to make sense to me but I have no idea if it makes sense to (or is used by) anyone else. 

[Lorentz Jr]

24 minutes ago, geordief said:

I am asking whether there are any models of individual  or group  behaviour that are experimentally more successful than others in predicting future outcomes.

I think behavioral economics has gotten good results. I'm not in the field though.

24 minutes ago, geordief said:

By the way is "the psychic space" a real term ?

No idea. It sounds good to me though.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Lorentz Jr

[TheVat]

Social cognitive theory has had some success.  Also Piagetian development theory.  Behavioral economics seems to do better with large groups - not so well in predictions of individual behavior.  

[Genady]

20 hours ago, geordief said:

whether there are any models of individual  or group  behaviour that are experimentally more successful than others in predicting future outcomes.

Perhaps there are, like 2% success is more than 1%.

 

20 hours ago, geordief said:

whether any of them have been shown to be effective  in their domain  of applicability.

I don't think so, based on what I've learned.

 

21 hours ago, geordief said:

By the way is "the psychic space" a real term ?

I never heard this term in the "psychic" classes I took. Also I'm not sure what it means. Something akin phase space of a mechanical system?

 

25 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Also Piagetian development theory.

I used to like that theory a lot in my teens. Loved his experiments. However, later I learned that his methodology was quite weak - small samples, poor reproducibility. I don't think the theory is in use today (but I may be wrong, of course.)

[geordief]

21 minutes ago, Genady said:

never heard this term in the "psychic" classes I took. Also I'm not sure what it means. Something akin phase space of a mechanical system

Yes,that is it.I was ruminating mainly on a personal level about all the inputs that go into  the outcome  of thought processes (not physically but in the realm of ideas ) wondered if it might be possible to model the situation  in such a way as to predict what actually happens (what decision I make or just what thought comes next)

You know ,if you have to make an important decision and you are weighing up all pros and cons ,(as you see them) you might write them down in two columns (for and against) with varying weights applied to each consideration.

There could be very many inputs  and I was idly wondering if you could somehow model them  and so predict what the actual decision you would make.

Now I know that it is also said that our conscious decisions are actually made before we are aware of them but maybe some model could incorporate  that  delay (or anticipation)

 

Anyway ,I liked the sound of "psychic space".I wonder if it resembles Hilbert Space.(that is the same as phase space,I am guessing)

 

btw what are "psychic classes"?Sounds a bit like ouija board sessions but I  don't suppose it is anything like that.)

 

Also,I can see how difficult it is to predict mental processes.Did you ever listen to Robin Williams?

Edited February 5, 2023 by geordief

[iNow]

19 minutes ago, geordief said:

wondered if it might be possible to model the situation  in such a way as to predict what actually happens

Psychohistory was the quintessence of sociology; it was the science of human behavior reduced to mathematical equations. The individual human being is unpredictable, but the reactions of human mobs, Seldon found, could be treated statistically.

Isaac Asimov, Second Foundation (Foundation, #3)

23 minutes ago, geordief said:

There could be very many inputs  and I was idly wondering if you could somehow model them  and so predict what the actual decision you would make.

Now I know that it is also said that our conscious decisions are actually made before we are aware of them but maybe some model could incorporate  that  delay (or anticipation)

The accuracy of such predictions would be contingent upon one’s knowledge of the individuals gut microbiome and how that interacts with the other layers of their nervous system. Even simple things like fatigue level and hydration levels and cortisol levels would need to be accounted for. 

[Genady]

1 hour ago, geordief said:

Hilbert Space.(that is the same as phase space,I am guessing)

No, it is not, but it also is a space of system states.

 

1 hour ago, geordief said:

what are "psychic classes"?

Just playing on your "psychic space" term. I meant a couple of psychology related courses.

 

1 hour ago, geordief said:

Did you ever listen to Robin Williams?

I've seen his movies.