We’re Slow-walking Our Way to WWIII (Agree/Disagree)

[exchemist]

13 minutes ago, iNow said:

Not if you're in one of the schools or apartment buildings or historical sites across Ukraine being struck with Russian missiles like right now. Or if your mom and sister are being raped by their soldiers, etc. 

Or indeed a Russian conscript, thrust into the "meat grinder".

[joigus]

9 minutes ago, iNow said:

Not if you're in one of the schools or apartment buildings or historical sites across Ukraine being struck with Russian missiles like right now. Or if your mom and sister are being raped by their soldiers, etc. 

I wasn't showing lack of concern. I forgot to write a sentence that I had in my mind. Namely: "which was every bit as horrible as a WW-n^th, never mind the number of casualties." The Cold War was pretty horrific, if you ask me, or people who suffered it in Angola, Chile, Korea, Vietnam, and on, and on. You can add to that many indirect consequences, like Chernobyl, which IMO was a consequence of the Soviets beeing obsessed with getting ahead of the US.

 

[geordief]

18 minutes ago, iNow said:

Not if you're in one of the schools or apartment buildings or historical sites across Ukraine being struck with Russian missiles like right now. Or if your mom and sister are being raped by their soldiers, etc. 

Well the Vietnam War  (amongst others?) took place in  the Cold War.

 

Edit: X-posted

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by geordief

[Genady]

Maybe it's just semantics, and in fact CWII and WWIII aren't very different.

[iNow]

3 minutes ago, Genady said:

Maybe it's just semantics, and in fact CWII and WWIII aren't very different.

In context of modern warfare, even "cold" wars are highly kinetic... cyber attacks, social wedge issues, meme deployment, these all play a critical role in how we view and engage with each other.

I, for one, am kind of tired of meeting people who live in the same community as me thinking it's A-Okay and quite honky dory to see their neighbors as worthy of murder and slaughter merely bc they have different views on how tax dollars should be spent in schools, for example. 

[Genady]

8 minutes ago, iNow said:

I, for one, am kind of tired of meeting people who live in the same community as me thinking it's A-Okay and quite honky dory to see their neighbors as worthy of murder and slaughter merely bc they have different views on how tax dollars should be spent in schools, for example. 

Well, it is more OT, but I was also tired of meeting people thinking that it's OK for their neighbors to be sick without medical insurance because they have different views on how tax dollars should be spent.

[TheVat]

43 minutes ago, iNow said:

In context of modern warfare, even "cold" wars are highly kinetic... cyber attacks, social wedge issues, meme deployment, these all play a critical role in how we view and engage with each other.

I, for one, am kind of tired of meeting people who live in the same community as me thinking it's A-Okay and quite honky dory to see their neighbors as worthy of murder and slaughter merely bc they have different views on how tax dollars should be spent in schools, for example. 

Oh there's nothing halfway about the Iowa way to treat you....

(from The Music Man)

I propose a new variant of Godwin's Law which says that all web discussions will eventually turn to partisan divisiveness in the US.  Or manifest it.

Anyway, to the degree that Putin's apparatchiks have helped generate that partisan division he is running an effective CW.

[mistermack]

The real danger of a WW3 is if the USA govornments continue to believe their own pompous bullshit. 

The arrogance is unbelievable. We can supply Ukraine with whatever we like, tanks, missiles, ammunition. But China or Iran can't supply Russia, their long-term allies. That's because 'we' are always right, and 'they' are always wrong. It's the sort of black and white shite that is all the US public can get their heads round. 

Actually, the White House lecturing of China is almost certainly counter-productive. The Chinese thoroughly dislike that bossy attitude, and are generally inclined to take instructions from nobody. They usually like to avoid rocking the boat, without backing down an inch. That's because they know that time is very much on their side, in the world power stakes. The US might or might not be slow-walking towards WW3, but they are definitely gliding inexorably towards being the worlds second most powerful superpower. 

[zapatos]

6 minutes ago, mistermack said:

The arrogance is unbelievable. We can supply Ukraine with whatever we like, tanks, missiles, ammunition. But China or Iran can't supply Russia, their long-term allies. That's because 'we' are always right, and 'they' are always wrong. It's the sort of black and white shite that is all the US public can get their heads round. 

 

I think your bias against America is clouding your judgement. 

The US is looking at the total picture; weapons, economics, politics, the past, the future, influencing, cajoling, threatening, enemies, allies, quid pro quo, etc.

Russia on the other hand is looking at the total picture; weapons, economics, politics, the past, the future, influencing, cajoling, threatening, enemies, allies, quid pro quo, etc..

The US is trying to minimize risk and maximize success. Russia is doing the same.

The US (or Russia or China) would not be a very sophisticated country if they didn't take every action they could to try and tilt things in their favor.

It is not arrogance. It is a smart move. Russia would like nothing more than for the US to sit idly by as weapons from China or anywhere else flowed into Russia.

[mistermack]

22 minutes ago, zapatos said:

The US is trying to minimize risk

They're doing a great job. 

[MigL]

1 hour ago, mistermack said:

The arrogance is unbelievable. We can supply Ukraine with whatever we like, tanks, missiles, ammunition. But China or Iran can't supply Russia, their long-term allies.

China and Iran are free to do as they like.
But there will be consequences for their actions, and the US, and the rest of the free world will respond accordingly.

Iran is already sanctioned up to its armpits, and they are supplying Russia with some drones, but parts are hard to come by.
China has some hi-teck sanctions imposed on it, but I believe it remembers lessons learned in 2008-09.
The American economy faltered and they stopped buying, yet China's economy suffered even worse.
The popular saying, at the time was "When America sneezes, China catches a cold".
Imagine the repercussions for China if America, and the rest of the free world stops buying from them.

[mistermack]

40 minutes ago, MigL said:

Imagine the repercussions for China if America, and the rest of the free world stops buying from them.

Yes, I'm also imagining the rate of inflation in America if that happened. And I'm imagining America going bust, if China stopped buying their debt. 

[zapatos]

44 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Yes, I'm also imagining the rate of inflation in America if that happened. And I'm imagining America going bust, if China stopped buying their debt. 

I don't think America will go bust if China quits buying 6% of America's debt. It will be sold elsewhere.

2 hours ago, mistermack said:

They're doing a great job. 

Agreed. It is an area that I think Biden has excelled at. Some things really do require years of experience in politics, rather than being an outsider with no political experience.

[TheVat]

3 hours ago, mistermack said:

The arrogance is unbelievable. We can supply Ukraine with whatever we like, tanks, missiles, ammunition. But China or Iran can't supply Russia, their long-term allies. That's because 'we' are always right, and 'they' are always wrong. It's the sort of black and white shite that is all the US public can get their heads round. 

Sorry, I missed the link you surely posted about Ukraine invading a sovereign nation and killing civilians en masse and committing mass war crimes and issuing threats to multiple NATO countries.  I mean, I assume that's the story I missed that would make sense out of your equivalency between Russia and Ukraine.  

[MigL]

Russia has decided to play the 'short' game, exposed all their weaknesses, and fared badly.
V Putin will now go down in history as a loser or a madman ( if his nuclear arsenal still works and he's willing to use it )

Xi is a lot smarter; he's playing the 'long' game and remains uncommitted to either side, waiting for one or the other to show a weakness.
He's an opportunist who has no problem allying himself with the West if Russia continues its failures in the Ukraine as it benefits China and his grip on it.
If, OTOH America should show a lack of resolve, he will take that opportunity to ally with Russia and take Taiwan.

[studiot]

7 minutes ago, MigL said:

Russia has decided to play the 'short' game, exposed all their weaknesses, and fared badly.
V Putin will now go down in history as a loser or a madman ( if his nuclear arsenal still works and he's willing to use it )

Xi is a lot smarter; he's playing the 'long' game and remains uncommitted to either side, waiting for one or the other to show a weakness.
He's an opportunist who has no problem allying himself with the West if Russia continues its failures in the Ukraine as it benefits China and his grip on it.
If, OTOH America should show a lack of resolve, he will take that opportunity to ally with Russia and take Taiwan.

Perceptive. +1

Taiwan ?

I would just draw your attention to the current joint naval exercises off South Africa (with the ANC).

The ANC have been spreading doctrine that the Ukranians in general and Zelensky in particular are dedicated zionists and also nazis (is that possible ?).

You wouldn't believe the hatred I have heard from them.

 

They are all gathering in their allies round the world.

Edited February 23, 2023 by studiot

[mistermack]

1 hour ago, zapatos said:

I don't think America will go bust if China quits buying 6% of America's debt. It will be sold elsewhere.

Citation please.

[Lorentz Jr]

2 hours ago, zapatos said:

I don't think America will go bust if China quits buying 6% of America's debt. It will be sold elsewhere.

It doesn't need to be sold elsewhere. Loss of support for public debt is the best thing that could happen to American workers. A little competitive devaluation, more exports, fewer imports, more jobs. The only real question is why the trade and currency imbalances have been normalized for so long that people think restoring the balance would be a problem.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Lorentz Jr

[CharonY]

53 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Citation please.

Have you some links to share for your assertion for:

 

3 hours ago, mistermack said:

Yes, I'm also imagining the rate of inflation in America if that happened. And I'm imagining America going bust, if China stopped buying their debt. 

Because if that is not factual, there would be no reason to look for an data to refute it.

Also for context, it seems that about 20% of the US debt is held by the US government, 4% by Japan and about 3.2 % by China. 

[zapatos]

2 hours ago, mistermack said:

Citation please.

Quote

Although China’s holdings have represented just under 20 percent of foreign-owned U.S. debt in the past several years, this percentage only comprises between 5 and 7 percent of total U.S. debt.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/it-risk-america-china-holds-over-1-trillion-us-debt

I'm hoping next time I ask you for a citation you'll be so good as to provide one.

[CharonY]

5 minutes ago, zapatos said:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/it-risk-america-china-holds-over-1-trillion-us-debt

I'm hoping next time I ask you for a citation you'll be so good as to provide one.

It is actually lower now:

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/23/1119126863/chinas-slice-of-the-us-debt-pie

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-debt-china-top-holder-1-trillion-japan-treasury-fed-2022-7?op=1

Quote

In May, China held $980.8 billion in US debt, down $23 billion from the prior month and almost $100 billion from a year ago, according to Treasury Department data released on Monday. China has reduced its Treasury holdings for six straight months.

Japan, which trimmed its US debt stockpile to $1.212 trillion in May from $1.218 trillion in April, is now the top overseas holder.

 

[geordief]

16 minutes ago, CharonY said:

It is actually lower now:

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/23/1119126863/chinas-slice-of-the-us-debt-pie

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-debt-china-top-holder-1-trillion-japan-treasury-fed-2022-7?op=1

 

Are the main holders private financial institutions?

[mistermack]

38 minutes ago, zapatos said:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/it-risk-america-china-holds-over-1-trillion-us-debt

Truly laughable !   Wikpedia says of csis  :    "Since its founding, CSIS "has been dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world", according to its website"  .                Got any Fox New quotes? Might be a bit lighter in propaganda. 

[MigL]

4 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Truly laughable ! 

No, what is laughable is your failure to provide ANY citation to back up your point.
Come back with an opinion when you have a clue ...

[zapatos]

16 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Truly laughable !   Wikpedia says of csis  :    "Since its founding, CSIS "has been dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world", according to its website"  .                Got any Fox New quotes? Might be a bit lighter in propaganda. 

So what is the actual number?