Technology Stabilization

[Photon Guy]

So technology seems to stabilize after awhile where it won't advance much further and there are examples of that. 

First I will start out with an example of a technology that has more or less stabilized, the gun. The first guns were these big cannons from the 12th century. Then as they got more advanced they were able to shrink guns down to the size where they could be used and carried by a single person and we had matchlocks which were long guns that were fired by a burning wick that was lowered into the flash pan with a lever, setting the powder off. Then we had wheel locks which used friction wheels instead of matches that produced sparks which set off the powder. Then we had flintlocks in which a piece of flint was struck to make the spark to fire the gun and guns also shrunk down further where they could be held and fired with one hand and we had handguns. Then we had percussion cap lock guns in which a cap was struck to fire the gun. Then we came out with repeating guns that could be fired repeatedly without reloading unlike the earlier guns that were single shot. From there we came out with brass cartridges that replaced the paper cartridges and made reloading guns much faster and much easier. After that we made further advancements with guns when we came out with semi automatics and full automatics. Since then however, we haven't seen much advancement with guns. I would say that for the last 50 years or even for the last 100 years guns have not advanced or changed much, the technology has stabilized. 

Now for an example of a technology that has not yet stabilized, the personal computer. If Im correct some of the first personal computers came out in the 1940s and 1950s and were so big they took up an entire room. Then as they got more advanced they were able to make smaller computers that could fit on top of a desk and that could do just as much if not more than their bigger counterparts. Then they came out with computers that could fit on your lap called laptops and now they have computers that fit in your pocket called smartphones that can do far more than the earlier larger desktop computers. Laptops and smartphones are still getting more and more advanced with computers getting both smaller and more powerful. The technology has not yet stabilized. 

 

So, the bottom line is that technology stabilizes after a certain point where it doesn't get any more advanced. 

[Sensei]

6 minutes ago, Photon Guy said:

I would say that for the last 50 years or even for the last 100 years guns have not advanced or changed much, the technology has stabilized. 

Arms manufacturers would of course disagree

I.e., guys with AK-47s vs. modern stuff..

..bouncing barrels and thus a lack of precision vs. recoil cushioning, etc.

8 minutes ago, Photon Guy said:

Laptops and smartphones are still getting more and more advanced with computers getting both smaller and more powerful. The technology has not yet stabilized. 

"Stabilization" i.e. the end of some technology will be reached when the size of an electronic component, will be counted in atom(s)..

..but it opens up new areas of optimization through multicore/threading, better algorithm optimization and so on....

But according to my buddies in the industry, almost no one is interested in such things. They claim that the cost of the programmer is higher than the cost of the hardware, i.e., it is cheaper to buy more machines than to force the programmer to write better, more optimized code.. (but he writes stuff in Bash, Perl and Python, because "it is quick, easy and cheap".. C/C++ code runs 1000x faster than Python doing the same stuff, without even multi-threading optimizations)

 

[Photon Guy]

15 hours ago, Sensei said:

Arms manufacturers would of course disagree

I.e., guys with AK-47s vs. modern stuff..

..bouncing barrels and thus a lack of precision vs. recoil cushioning, etc.

Well within the last 50 years or at least within the last 20 years we haven't seen much advances with the technology of guns. We might've seen little advances but nothing big like with computers. Twenty years ago a computer that would fit on a desk will now fit in your pocket.

15 hours ago, Sensei said:

"Stabilization" i.e. the end of some technology will be reached when the size of an electronic component, will be counted in atom(s)..

That may very well be so, we might someday have computers that size, and the fact that we don't have them today, not yet, goes to show how computer technology has not yet stabilized and is still rapidly advancing. 

15 hours ago, Sensei said:

..but it opens up new areas of optimization through multicore/threading, better algorithm optimization and so on....

But that will eventually stabilize too. 

[exchemist]

16 hours ago, Photon Guy said:

So technology seems to stabilize after awhile where it won't advance much further and there are examples of that. 

First I will start out with an example of a technology that has more or less stabilized, the gun. The first guns were these big cannons from the 12th century. Then as they got more advanced they were able to shrink guns down to the size where they could be used and carried by a single person and we had matchlocks which were long guns that were fired by a burning wick that was lowered into the flash pan with a lever, setting the powder off. Then we had wheel locks which used friction wheels instead of matches that produced sparks which set off the powder. Then we had flintlocks in which a piece of flint was struck to make the spark to fire the gun and guns also shrunk down further where they could be held and fired with one hand and we had handguns. Then we had percussion cap lock guns in which a cap was struck to fire the gun. Then we came out with repeating guns that could be fired repeatedly without reloading unlike the earlier guns that were single shot. From there we came out with brass cartridges that replaced the paper cartridges and made reloading guns much faster and much easier. After that we made further advancements with guns when we came out with semi automatics and full automatics. Since then however, we haven't seen much advancement with guns. I would say that for the last 50 years or even for the last 100 years guns have not advanced or changed much, the technology has stabilized. 

Now for an example of a technology that has not yet stabilized, the personal computer. If Im correct some of the first personal computers came out in the 1940s and 1950s and were so big they took up an entire room. Then as they got more advanced they were able to make smaller computers that could fit on top of a desk and that could do just as much if not more than their bigger counterparts. Then they came out with computers that could fit on your lap called laptops and now they have computers that fit in your pocket called smartphones that can do far more than the earlier larger desktop computers. Laptops and smartphones are still getting more and more advanced with computers getting both smaller and more powerful. The technology has not yet stabilized. 

 

So, the bottom line is that technology stabilizes after a certain point where it doesn't get any more advanced. 

I should have thought, rather, that it tends to follow an asymptotic curve, developing further all the time, but in smaller and smaller optimisation stages.  

Edited April 6, 2023 by exchemist

[Endy0816]

They are still innovating though. Have the Anvil gun, a handheld gaus rifle, out now for example.

https://arcflashlabs.com/product/gr-1-anvil/

 

Edited April 6, 2023 by Endy0816

[Genady]

So, you have one example of a technology that arguably stabilized, and another one of a technology that has not. This doesn't seem to justify the conclusion,

On 4/5/2023 at 6:37 PM, Photon Guy said:

So, the bottom line is that technology stabilizes after a certain point where it doesn't get any more advanced.

Moreover, I think there are other trajectories in addition to these two.

[Photon Guy]

On 4/6/2023 at 1:57 PM, Endy0816 said:

They are still innovating though. Have the Anvil gun, a handheld gaus rifle, out now for example.

https://arcflashlabs.com/product/gr-1-anvil/

 

Wow looks really cool. 

Anyway, Im talking about conventional firearms that use gunpowder. We haven't seen much in the way of major advances with that particular technology in the last twenty years or so. With other types of guns such as gaus guns, railguns, laser guns, ect, it would be a different story. 

[npts2020]

I don't know but this seems pretty innovative. Some guy from Australia built something similar which can be wielded like an AK-47 or other rifle.

[MigL]

A lot of new rifles are of 'bullpup' design, which gives a longer barrel length ( and greater muzzle velocity ) in a much more compact design.
The latest innovation is caseless ammunition, which greatly reduces the weight that a combatant has to carry.
I would say innovation is alive and well in the arms industry.

That smart phone you have is powerful because it uses 8 ARM cores.
ARM cores are licensed to Apple, Qualcomm, and many other chip suppliers based on a design from the 90s called Acorn RISC Machine and known for its frugal use of power. Different design priorities have produced different results; while 8 ARM cores can run reasonably fast all day off a small battery, they will not be able to match the raw computing power ( mflops ) of an Intel 12th gen Core, AMD Zen 3 or Nvidia 4000 series GPU.

Edited April 8, 2023 by MigL