Combatting Conspiracy Theories

[zapatos]

Quote

Behavioural researchers at University College Cork (UCC), Ireland, reviewed 25 previously published studies that tested methods for reducing conspiracy beliefs in over 7,000 participants.

They found that only half of the methods produced any change in beliefs at all, with a small minority seeing significant behavioural change.

...

“One of the most important findings of our review is that traditional fact-checking and counterarguments are the least effective means of combating conspiracy beliefs,” said one of the review’s authors, PhD candidate Cian O’Mahony.

...

This means that the most effective method is to present critical thinking strategies to a person before they are exposed to misinformation. Attempting to prove a conspiracy theory false to somebody after they are exposed to misinformation may only serve to strengthen their resolve – participants were likely to perceive such intervention attempts as cover-ups of the truth.

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/conspiracy-theory-review/?utm_content=FOC2&utm_campaign=Thursday 6 April 2023_2506954_Focus_Newsletters_24748918&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=Adestra

[mistermack]

That's not surprising. 

Conspiracies DO happen. Some conspiracy theories are true, some are made up. I'm sure there are more made-up ones than true ones, but that doesn't change the fact that it's evidence that counts, not whether it's a conspiracy theory or not.

Admittedly, some people would rather just dismiss them without evidence, but that makes as much sense as buying into them without evidence. 

People forget that some scandals that are now common knowledge started out by being dismissed as conspiracy theories, before the truth became undeniable. 

https://www.rd.com/list/conspiracy-theories-that-turned-out-to-be-true/  

[TheVat]

I have heard that University College-Cork is part of an international cabal that is trying to bring a world government based on socialism and population reduction through legal cannibalism.  "Critical thinking strategy" is just a guise for indoctrinating children into  pod living, eating their parents and siblings and surrendering all property to George Soros.  

[zapatos]

Damn. My colleagues and I have been found out...

55 minutes ago, mistermack said:

Admittedly, some people would rather just dismiss them without evidence, but that makes as much sense as buying into them without evidence. 

 

Unfortunately, much like with god, finding evidence that a conspiracy is NOT true is often a tall order. While I have no evidence that @TheVat's conspiracy is false, I still feel pretty comfortable dismissing it.

59 minutes ago, mistermack said:

People forget that some scandals that are now common knowledge started out by being dismissed as conspiracy theories, before the truth became undeniable. 

https://www.rd.com/list/conspiracy-theories-that-turned-out-to-be-true/  

I was particularly amused/horrified by Canada's development of a Gaydar machine. 😁

 

[mistermack]

6 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Unfortunately, much like with god, finding evidence that a conspiracy is NOT true is often a tall order. While I have no evidence that @TheVat's conspiracy is false, I still feel pretty comfortable dismissing it.

That's EXACTLY what I thought you'd say. If he was right.

 

 

For once ! 

[TheVat]

You see what happens when I strip away the veil of lies?  Immediately the forces of anthropophagy and pod living rush to dismiss it.  Do you think it's just a coincidence he shares a name with the leftist Mexican revolutionary who wanted to redistribute land to peasants?  

😀

[TheVat]

8 hours ago, mistermack said:

 

People forget that some scandals that are now common knowledge started out by being dismissed as conspiracy theories, before the truth became undeniable. 

https://www.rd.com/list/conspiracy-theories-that-turned-out-to-be-true/  

Would be interesting to take a more random sample, see how many proved true.  I hypothesize it would be a small percent.

Some of the ones on that Readers Digest list aren't really conspiracies.  The FBI surveillance of Lennon was agents following a well-established routine, SOP with those profiled as left-wing influencers and activists.  We can deplore it as a bad agency policy, but it doesn't really fit the definition of conspiracy.  Same with the Dalai Lama - the CIA regularly compensates foreign "assets" for working with them, and I think that's been widely understood to be part of their SOP for decades.  The Big Tobacco suppression, however, would qualify as a conspiracy - a covert and organized effort to silence people and destroy evidence.  

 

 

[mistermack]

17 minutes ago, TheVat said:

I hypothesize it would be a small percent.

Me too, but that wouldn't justify dismissing every conspiracy theory, just because it is a conspiracy theory. Things like Watergate would never be blown wide open, and Nixon's "I am not a crook" would stand. 

Or the Bay of Pigs would go down as a noble failed Cuban revolution, not a botched CIA operation. And the world would still believe that Kennedy "stared down" Kruschev over Cuba, rather than giving way and agreeing to remove the nukes in Turkey. 

Not to mention "weapons of mass destruction"  !!

Actually, on this side of the pond, conspiracies have been going on for years unnoticed. 

When King Edward Vlll was knocking about with Wallace Simpson, and intending to marry her, not a word appeared in the British Press. The facts were completely hidden from the British, even though the American Papers were full of it. The history of the royal family is a history of conspiracies, right up to the present day, and the media are fully compliant. 

The advent of the internet has ruined that cosy arrangement now though, unfortunately for them. But not completely, they are still working around it. 

[toucana]

"People love to imagine that things they don’t understand are somehow connected to each other. For example: Quantum Mechanics and consciousness, aliens and pyramids, or black holes and dark matter... usually there is no real relationship whatsoever"  (Matt O'Dowd - PBS SPACETIME)

The article cited in the OP says that fact-checking and counter-arguments do not generally work against conspiracy beliefs, and neither do appeals to a conspiracy theorist’s sense of empathy.

About the only thing that does seem to work according to this study is prophylaxis - (Latin pro ‘before’ + Greek phulaxis  “act of guarding”). You need to innoculate people against conspiracy theories *before* they become exposed to them.

You can do this they suggest, by giving students formal courses in critical thinking, and actual practice in distinguishing between pseudoscience and science, sense and nonsense - with worked examples - to help them develop a sense of quantitative scepticism.

“I am open to new ideas. i just don’t let them walk into my head and take a dump there” - (anon)

[Markus Hanke]

2 hours ago, toucana said:

You can do this they suggest, by giving students formal courses in critical thinking, and actual practice in distinguishing between pseudoscience and science, sense and nonsense - with worked examples - to help them develop a sense of quantitative scepticism.

 

This is definitely part of a possible solution. However, I don’t think this gives the full picture, because it seems to me - and that’s just a personal observation - that at the foundation of every conspiracy belief lies the desire to condense down an inherently complex and unpredictable world that is full of “grey zones” (morally, politically, philosophically etc) into a simple “good” vs “bad” narrative that is easy to grasp and understand. All such theories I can think of, irrespective of specific details, always and ultimately boil down to this - the idea that there is some nebulous “them” who do everything in their power to hide “the truth” from “us” for some nefarious purpose or another. Structuring the world in this simplistic manner gives one a sense of empowerment, since it feels like one sees through “their” deception and can actively resist “evil” by not buying into the alleged lies. To give just one random example - Flat Earth is ultimately not really about the shape of the earth at all, but about the fact that there is a “them” who have been hiding the “true” shape for their own evil ends. This tendency to want to simplify things in this manner stems from a deep-seated sense of powerlessness in the face of an increasingly complex world that is harder and harder to grasp and understand for the common Joe-on-the-street. It’s really very difficult to address this - but yes, education and critical thinking skills are definitely a large part of the answer.

[StringJunky]

12 minutes ago, Markus Hanke said:

This is definitely part of a possible solution. However, I don’t think this gives the full picture, because it seems to me - and that’s just a personal observation - that at the foundation of every conspiracy belief lies the desire to condense down an inherently complex and unpredictable world that is full of “grey zones” (morally, politically, philosophically etc) into a simple “good” vs “bad” narrative that is easy to grasp and understand. All such theories I can think of, irrespective of specific details, always and ultimately boil down to this - the idea that there is some nebulous “them” who do everything in their power to hide “the truth” from “us” for some nefarious purpose or another. Structuring the world in this simplistic manner gives one a sense of empowerment, since it feels like one sees through “their” deception and can actively resist “evil” by not buying into the alleged lies. To give just one random example - Flat Earth is ultimately not really about the shape of the earth at all, but about the fact that there is a “them” who have been hiding the “true” shape for their own evil ends. This tendency to want to simplify things in this manner stems from a deep-seated sense of powerlessness in the face of an increasingly complex world that is harder and harder to grasp and understand for the common Joe-on-the-street. It’s really very difficult to address this - but yes, education and critical thinking skills are definitely a large part of the answer.

I think it stems from the brain's default mode to put things in boxes. When the thing being boxed fails to find a match it will llook through itself to find some thing to match it. When it starts thinking really hard, maybe motivated by beliefs, it will concoct a category for it in the direction of those beliefs.

[iNow]

The keyword is heuristics 

[toucana]

7 hours ago, StringJunky said:

I think it stems from the brain's default mode to put things in boxes. When the thing being boxed fails to find a match it will llook through itself to find some thing to match it. When it starts thinking really hard, maybe motivated by beliefs, it will concoct a category for it in the direction of those beliefs.

One thing I have noticed, especially in online diatribes by QAnon believers explaining their ‘research’, is a tendency to rely on a mechanism known as Clanging, or Clang Association.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clanging

Also known as Glossomania or Association Chaining, this is generally regarded as a symptom of a mental disorder often found in patients with Schizophrenic and Bipolar illnesses. It is defined as:

“repeating chains of words that are associated semantically or phonetically with no relevant context” This may include compulsive rhyming or alliteration, without apparent logical connection between words.

The speaker becomes distracted by homophones, puns, and word-plays in their own utterances, and they fly off down tangential rabbit-holes that take them further and further from their intended topic with each sentence.

One example that comes to mind is the incident in March 2021 when a large supertanker collided with the bank of the Suez Canal and blocked it for almost a week. The stranded supertanker was called Ever Given, but it had the name of a Taiwanese shipping company Evergreen painted in large letters on its side. The latter happened to be the Secret Service codename for Hillary Clinton when she was First lady. QAnon believers were wildly triggered when they discovered that this supertanker’s call-sign was H3RC, which was close enough to Clinton’s own initials HRC for them to make a completely spurious clang association.

In no time at all, online services such as Telegram and Gab were carrying extensive QAnon threads alleging that the Ever Given was full of child sex-slaves that were part of a dastardly world-wide ‘Deep State’ plot directed by Hillary Clinton in person. The QAnon believers also found a photo of the female captain of the stricken ship who in their opinion bore a slight facial resemblance to Monica Lewinsky - which of course provided them with  ‘conclusive proof’ of this entire farrago of nonsense.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/mar/25/facebook-posts/evergreen-ship-blocking-suez-canal-not-linked-hill/

Random word Association Testing of a similar type was used extensively in the earlier period of the Psychoanalytic movement  founded by Sigmund Freud, as a diagnostic tool for mapping the cognitive disorders of neurotic patients. Carl Jung in particular was associated with the development of this psychiatric technique, which was originally inspired by ‘The Psychopathology of Everyday Life ‘ (1901) by Sigmund Freud.

Edited April 13, 2023 by toucana
typo of 'semantically'

[TheVat]

3 hours ago, toucana said:

One example that comes to mind is the incident in March 2021 when a large supertanker collided with the bank of the Suez Canal and blocked it for almost a week....

Plus one - fascinating.  The human mind is particularly adept at pattern recognition, useful for animal tracking or hunting for edible plants or seeing a potential enemy hiding in a bush, less useful when working overtime in a world full of symbol systems - letters, numbers, logos, etc.  Many logical fallacies and statistical fallacies (and pareidolia) arise from such over-application of pattern recognition.  (I often am reminded of one called The Texas Sharpshooter, which also seems common among crackpots)

I have wondered if astrology buffs also have a tendency to association chaining - it's sort of a conspiracy theory involving celestial objects and Greek/Roman god names mystically applied to them, with spurious connections constantly being drawn and reinforced by very selective observations of persons.  I wonder how rates of belief in astrology correlates with rates of Q-anon beliefs.

On a personal note, I once let this cognitive tendency go a little overboard on the number 108.  (I let it happen on purpose, curious what would happen)  That number was everywhere.  Once I even saw it lurking, big brass letters on the side of a house, behind an EVERGREEN tree.  

Edited April 14, 2023 by TheVat

[iNow]

1 hour ago, TheVat said:

I once let this cognitive tendency go a little overboard on the number 108.  (I let it happen on purpose, curious what would happen)  That number was everywhere.  Once I even saw it lurking, big brass letters on the side of a house, behind an EVERGREEN tree.

Interesting how that’s half of 216. Perhaps a reference to this?

 

 

[toucana]

A reduced 13 x 13 Go board has around 10>80 possible legal stone positions available: about the same as the number of  atoms in the observable universe. A full size 19 x 19 Go board of the type shown in the film clip from Pi  (above) has around 10>90  *more* available positions  i.e. c. 10>170 possible legal patterns.

http://norvig.com/atoms.html

[Eise]

Just a side note...

10¹⁷⁰ - 10⁸⁰ is definitely not 10⁹⁰. It is closer to... 10¹⁷⁰.

10¹⁷⁰ divided by 10⁸⁰ is 10⁹⁰.

So a full board has 10⁹⁰ times the positions of a 13 x 13 board.

 

[TheVat]

10 hours ago, iNow said:

Interesting how that’s half of 216.

Also 1E1*2E2*3E3.  Also the sum of the mystery numbers on the American (cult popular) series "Lost."  Also the product of the Supreme Court size and the most common jury size (9 and 12).  Also, in Hinduism 108 is the sacred number of creation.  Also sacred in Buddhism.  In Islam it's the number associated with Allah.  You get the idea.  (there was also the frequent noticing of $1.08 in coins in my pocket, a digital clock happening to read 1:08, etc)

Type "significance of 108" in a search engine and you will be drenched in mystical connections and mathematic elegance.

It's an absolute turbocharger for association chaining.

[mistermack]

17 hours ago, toucana said:

“repeating chains of words that are associated semantically or phonetically with no relevant context” This may include compulsive rhyming or alliteration, without apparent logical connection between words.

That's far more widespread than just in people with psychological problems. It's an effective tactic in all sorts of endeavors.

Take the OJ Simpson trial :   "If the glove doesn't fit, you must acquit"   !!     And it worked! Every rhyming slogan that politicians use comes under the same phenomenon. Ordinary sane people are influence by nonsensical rhymes and slogans. 

"All the way with LBJ" helped get Johnson elected. "We too like Ike" helped Eisenhour. In fact, it doesn't need to rhyme, just catch the attention in some repeatable way, to be effective. Like Bill Clinton's "It's the economy, stupid" . Or "Yes we can" by Obama.

Anything chantable and stickable has the possible power to change the world. The right words gain power in our minds.

I believe we evolved the tendency to flock to a chanted slogan while we were territorial apes, fighting every day to guard our territory. 

[toucana]

Another way of combatting conspiracy theories is to get the principal purveyors fired from their cosy jobs as prime-time TV anchors on far-right channels, by suing the media corporations that employ them for  $1.6 billion in damages for defamation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/24/media/tucker-carlson-fox-news/index.html

Fox News have just announced that both Tucker Carlson and Dan Bongino have already been terminated. More to follow as they say.

[exchemist]

1 minute ago, toucana said:

Another way of combatting conspiracy theories is to get the principal purveyors fired from their cosy jobs as prime-time TV anchors on far-right channels, by suing the media corporations that employ them for  $1.6 billion in damages for defamation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/24/media/tucker-carlson-fox-news/index.html

Fox News have just announced that both Tucker Carlson and Dan Bongino have already been terminated. More to follow as they say.

The cream of the joke is Carlson was fired for objecting to Fox’s campaign of lies. But it couldn’t happen a nicer chap.🤣

[TheVat]

Seems to be spreading.  Don Lemon, of the infamous Nikki Haley (51) is past her prime remark, has just been booted by CNN.  

Wonder where Tucker will tan his testicles now.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/tucker-carlson-end-of-men-testicle-tanning-1338944/

[iNow]

He might try to primary Trump and take the presidency 

Or he might just ooze over to newsmax instead 

[TheVat]

Trump-Carlson ticket.  "Bronze above, bronze below"

 

[toucana]

22 hours ago, TheVat said:

Seems to be spreading.  Don Lemon, of the infamous Nikki Haley (51) is past her prime remark, has just been booted by CNN.  

Wonder where Tucker will tan his testicles now.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/tucker-carlson-end-of-men-testicle-tanning-1338944/

According to NBC News, Russian TV networks including RT (Russia Today)  have offered him a new job as a reward for his relentlessly pro-Putin rhetoric.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/tucker-carlson-offered-jobs-russian-state-tv-channels-putin-ukraine-rcna81281

Vladimir Solovyov (a principal RT anchor and satirist) wrote - "We'll happily offer you a job if you wish to carry on as a presenter and host! You are always welcome in Russia and Moscow, we wish you the best of luck."