More data that higher minimum wage creates jobs

[John Cuthber]

On 5/16/2023 at 4:20 PM, Sensei said:

If I make some claim, it is universal, worldwide..

... and wrong in this case.
As shown by (among others)  the history of UK minimum wages.

 

On 5/16/2023 at 4:20 PM, Sensei said:

That's how in the US you probe the amount of of unemployment rate?

 

How do you in the US measure rate of homelessness? Do you make survey? By text message? By sending e-mail?

How do you in the US measure rate addiction from narcotics.. ? Do you make survey? By text message? By sending e-mail?

 

Why  are you pretending that those things are in the same category?

4 hours ago, Sensei said:

.seriously.. ? The amount of inaccuracies must be counted in hundreds of percents..

No
It's actually quite a good technique.
Better yet; they can check on it.
It's easy to survey for caffeine use (and also easy to just ask the tea and coffee importers how much they bring in).
And you can measure caffeine concentration  upstream and downstream of a town and calculate how much is in the water- the only other thing you need to know is the river flow rate and they are good at measuring that.
They get the right answer.
They can also measure prescription drugs that are not abused- things like allopurinol- for which there's no "black market.
They know how much is prescribed and they can measure it in the water.

And they can do the same thing for compounds like benzoylecgonine to assess cocaine use.



So just because you couldn't get the right answer doesn't mean that clever people haven't.

Can someone just check back with reality here?
The UK introduced a minimum wage in April 1999.
Inflation fell from 1.82% in 1998 to 1.75% in 1999 and 1.18% in 2000
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/inflation-rate-cpi

That observation trumps any "logic" that you might choose to apply to the situation.

Inflation is driven by the money supply.
Simplistically, if there a strike at the mint, the inflation rate droops to zero.

Realistically there are plenty of causes.
https://kinesis.money/blog/what-are-five-causes-of-inflation/

And if, as is plausible, increased wages actually lead to reduced costs because the company doesn't have to keep paying to recruit or because staff are more content and work more productively, there's not net increase in costs which needs to be passed on to the customer.

[mistermack]

I don't see why it should be surprising that a higher minimum wage creates jobs. 

People on minimum wage tend to spend all of what they earn. People on higher incomes save and invest more of their money. So more money in circulation at the lower end tends to create jobs, whereas money at the higher end tends to inflate capital asset values. 

[npts2020]

21 hours ago, Sensei said:

..seriously.. ? The amount of inaccuracies must be counted in hundreds of percents..

 As evidenced by what? The scientists doing this for over a decade now seem to think it is fairly accurate and their results correspond well with statistics collected via other methods.

 

21 hours ago, Sensei said:

..except the significant amount of drug addicted people don't live in apartments and don't use toilets at all, as they are homeless etc. from which you can take their piss and analyze it, but on the streets and piss wherever they want ("under a cloud")..

How significant?  Also, keep in mind that urine in the street ends up in the sewage, anyway. 

 

 

WRT the OP it makes sense the the more money in circulation, the more jobs will be created.

Edited May 21, 2023 by npts2020
relevance

[MigL]

Except for the fact that more money in circulation means that more money is competing for a limited amount of goods, and this leads to 'demand-pull' inflation.
This type of iflation is seen in the housing/real estate market in Canada , and, along with 'cost-push' inflation ( due to rising costs of production ) is one of the 5 causes of inflation John Cuthber posted about here

17 hours ago, John Cuthber said:

Realistically there are plenty of causes.
https://kinesis.money/blog/what-are-five-causes-of-inflation/

Always read John's posts; he's a very sharp guy.
( at east, I think he/she's a guy ... )

[John Cuthber]

3 hours ago, npts2020 said:

Also, keep in mind that urine in the street ends up in the sewage, anyway. 

Like the scientists who did the research, you thought it through just a bit further than Sensei did.
 

1 hour ago, MigL said:

Always read John's posts; he's a very sharp guy.

Correct on both counts.

 

[Sensei]

On 5/20/2023 at 11:02 PM, John Cuthber said:

No
It's actually quite a good technique.

A good technique only in prison..

On 5/20/2023 at 11:02 PM, John Cuthber said:

Better yet; they can check on it.
It's easy to survey for caffeine use (and also easy to just ask the tea and coffee importers how much they bring in).
And you can measure caffeine concentration  upstream and downstream of a town and calculate how much is in the water- the only other thing you need to know is the river flow rate and they are good at measuring that.

Why do you lie (a politician would say "you presented a different version of reality"), make things up and pretend they are true? Why do you present a twisted version of reality just for the sake of arguing on the forum and make yourself look like a fool.. ?

According to your claim, caffeine is not processed by the human metabolism..

BTW, we were talking about drug use, not caffeine use.. which is not (yet) prohibited..

Do you think so homeless drink tea or coffee? How do they make them without having access to hot water, electricity, etc. etc. ?

ps. If I flush coffee and/or tea and/or Coca-Cola and/or Pepsi down the toilet, how will that affect your results... ?

 

Google:

"How much caffeine is in sewage?"

"It is common to find caffeine in effluent wastewater [0.07-126 µg L-1 (Weigel et al., 2004)], in well water [1.7 µg L-1 (Swartz et al., 2006)], in groundwater [0.23 µg L-1 (Seiler et al., 1999)], in coastal waters [15-185 ng L-1 (Cantwell et al., 2016)] and surface water (112-781 ng L-1 [Daneshvar et al., 2012])."

So how do you get any level of accuracy from the 0.07-126 ug/L range?

 

On 5/20/2023 at 11:02 PM, John Cuthber said:

And you can measure caffeine concentration  upstream and downstream

.. "caffeine concentration" or "caffeine metabolites processed by the body".. ?

 

 

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=caffeine+metabolism

"Caffeine is almost completely metabolized with 3% or less being excreted unchanged in urine [3,6]. The main route of metabolism in humans (70–80%) is through N-3-demethylation to paraxanthine also known as 1,7-dimethylxanthine or 17X [3,6,7] (see Fig. 1). This reaction is carried out by CYP1A2 in the liver [6]."

 

[John Cuthber]

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

A good technique only in prison..

You may know more about prisons than I do, but I assure you that the technique is widely reported.
https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/publications/html/pods/waste-water-analysis_en

 

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

According to your claim, caffeine is not processed by the human metabolism..

Two things, Caffeine is , to a degree. excreted as such in the urine. The fraction excreted as such is fairly well documented- and not hard to measure.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5724768/
Also, did you notice I said that they measure benzoyl ecgonine (rather than cocaine itself) to determine cocaine use?
Didn't you realise that they would also measure metabolites of caffeine to get a total figure?

 

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Why do you lie

Same reasons as most people I guess.
But I have no call to lie on this website.

Why do you?

 

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

(a politician would say "you presented a different version of reality")

A better politicians would get their researchers to check the  facts. You don't seem to have done so.

 

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

we were talking about drug use, not caffeine use

Caffeine is a drug.
We were actually talking about your contrafactual claims about minimum wages.
We then went on to discuss your failure to recognise that streets typically get washed by rain into rivers.
 

 

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

So how do you get any level of accuracy from the 0.07-126 ug/L range?

What problem are you imagining?
In

 

parts of Utah, they consume very little coffee; perhaps that's where the 0.07µg/ litre figure came from.
I gather that the folk in Finland consume the most coffee. Maybe that's where the 126 µg/litre figure was from.

Or maybe the discrepancy is due to changes in rainfall.

That's why I said you needed to know the river flow rate.
 

On 5/20/2023 at 10:02 PM, John Cuthber said:

the only other thing you need to know is the river flow rate and they are good at measuring that.

Didn't you understand?
 

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

"caffeine concentration" or "caffeine metabolites processed by the body".. ?

 

Both, if you have any sense.
 

 

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Do you think so homeless drink tea or coffee?

How did you come to the conclusion that such a question matters?
On the other hand, the classic line I hear from street beggars is "Can you spare me the price of a cup of tea". (I'm not saying that's what they plan to spend it all on)
 

 

45 minutes ago, Sensei said:

If I flush coffee and/or tea and/or Coca-Cola and/or Pepsi down the toilet, how will that affect your results... ?

It very nearly won't affect it at all for two reasons.
There's only 1 of you in a city of how many?.
And, in a very real sense, all drinks get flushed into the river.

And it certainly won't affect the point you were getting close to making about illegal drug use, will it?

The point remains, calling me a liar because you don't understand science makes you look like you are 8 rather than 80 and also adds an amusing irony to your chosen name  here.


 

Incidentally, there is, of course a very good reason why homeless people might drink tea or coffee.
"In the all night café
At a quarter past eleven
Same old man
Sitting there on his own
Looking at the world
Over the rim of his teacup
Each tea lasts an hour
And he wanders home alone"

From
 

Streets of London

Song by Ralph McTell

It's warm in the café.

Edited May 22, 2023 by John Cuthber

[npts2020]

On 5/21/2023 at 10:56 AM, MigL said:

Except for the fact that more money in circulation means that more money is competing for a limited amount of goods, and this leads to 'demand-pull' inflation.

How does raising minimum wage increase the amount of money in circulation? Seems to me all it does is redistribute toward the creators, more of the wealth created. I should have clarified that money used to buy real goods rather than buying investments type of circulation. Buying back shares of stock doesn't create jobs, people being able to go out for a movie and dinner does.

Edited May 23, 2023 by npts2020
clarification

[MigL]

On 5/21/2023 at 9:05 AM, npts2020 said:

WRT the OP it makes sense the the more money in circulation, the more jobs will be created.

 

On 5/21/2023 at 12:42 AM, mistermack said:

People on minimum wage tend to spend all of what they earn. People on higher incomes save and invest more of their money.

So more money in circulation at the lower end tends to create jobs

You and MisterMack made the claim.
Shouldn't I be asking you ?

[swansont]

16 hours ago, npts2020 said:

How does raising minimum wage increase the amount of money in circulation?

Because the additional money tends to be spent on things.

16 hours ago, npts2020 said:

Seems to me all it does is redistribute toward the creators, more of the wealth created.

That can happen, too.

 

[CharonY]

On 5/22/2023 at 3:49 PM, John Cuthber said:

You may know more about prisons than I do, but I assure you that the technique is widely reported.
https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/publications/html/pods/waste-water-analysis_en

 

Two things, Caffeine is , to a degree. excreted as such in the urine. The fraction excreted as such is fairly well documented- and not hard to measure.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5724768/
Also, did you notice I said that they measure benzoyl ecgonine (rather than cocaine itself) to determine cocaine use?
Didn't you realise that they would also measure metabolites of caffeine to get a total figure?

 

Same reasons as most people I guess.
But I have no call to lie on this website.

Why do you?

 

A better politicians would get their researchers to check the  facts. You don't seem to have done so.

 

Caffeine is a drug.
We were actually talking about your contrafactual claims about minimum wages.
We then went on to discuss your failure to recognise that streets typically get washed by rain into rivers.
 

 

What problem are you imagining?
In

 

parts of Utah, they consume very little coffee; perhaps that's where the 0.07µg/ litre figure came from.
I gather that the folk in Finland consume the most coffee. Maybe that's where the 126 µg/litre figure was from.

Or maybe the discrepancy is due to changes in rainfall.

That's why I said you needed to know the river flow rate.
 

Didn't you understand?
 

Both, if you have any sense.
 

 

How did you come to the conclusion that such a question matters?
On the other hand, the classic line I hear from street beggars is "Can you spare me the price of a cup of tea". (I'm not saying that's what they plan to spend it all on)
 

 

It very nearly won't affect it at all for two reasons.
There's only 1 of you in a city of how many?.
And, in a very real sense, all drinks get flushed into the river.

And it certainly won't affect the point you were getting close to making about illegal drug use, will it?

The point remains, calling me a liar because you don't understand science makes you look like you are 8 rather than 80 and also adds an amusing irony to your chosen name  here.


 

Incidentally, there is, of course a very good reason why homeless people might drink tea or coffee.
"In the all night café
At a quarter past eleven
Same old man
Sitting there on his own
Looking at the world
Over the rim of his teacup
Each tea lasts an hour
And he wanders home alone"

From
 

Streets of London

Song by Ralph McTell

It's warm in the café.

A bit of sidetracking here, but I would like to add that addiction rates are typically not estimated by a singular method (such as wastewater surveillance), but typically incorporates other measures from multiple sources (e.g. injection site uses, surveys in homeless shelters, general interviews and so on). Wastewater analyses are generally robust to look for trends and relative changes. Using population estimates such as caffeine (but increasingly other biomarkers are getting more popular) some level of prevalence can be estimated but there are indeed challenges, depending on the type and size of the sewer system (some areas might have way longer residence times than others), biological activity. temperature, variability in flow and so on. 

That being said, any measure of drug use has its issues and ultimately the idea is to combine various independent approaches to provide the most accurate picture. An advantage of wastewater analyses is that it tends to be a good indicator of overall trend in a population and can be a good estimator for modeling purposes.

[Eise]

On 5/21/2023 at 6:42 AM, mistermack said:

People on minimum wage tend to spend all of what they earn. People on higher incomes save and invest more of their money. So more money in circulation at the lower end tends to create jobs, whereas money at the higher end tends to inflate capital asset values. 

That would be a 'trickle-up' effect. And that may be much more realistic as the 'trickle-down' effect. A strong middle class, makes a strong consumer base. So more employees are needed to produce consumer products. 

[John Cuthber]

On 5/24/2023 at 5:16 PM, CharonY said:

A bit of sidetracking here, but I would like to add that addiction rates are typically not estimated by a singular method (such as wastewater surveillance), but typically incorporates other measures from multiple sources

Indeed.
But Sensei still doesn't seem to believe in them.

[Sensei]

On 5/14/2023 at 12:38 PM, swansont said:

Do you have any inflation data to share to support scenario #2?

..you are in one country, JC is in yet another, MigL is yet another country, and I am in yet another..

For which country is it needed? If I show you data for one country that is not yours, you will complain that is not yours (which happened in the past).. It's simple math. No politics. No economics.
 

"Venezuela raises minimum wage in fourth year of hyperinflation"

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-raises-minimum-wage-fourth-year-hyperinflation-2021-05-01/

"The Venezuelan government increased the monthly minimum wage by 289%, an official said on Saturday"

In the first case you should ask "how many people in the country [in question] have the minimum wage," in the second "how many people in the country receive social benefits," and in the third "how many people are in prison."

 

From what I see, in the US,

"The minimum wage is scheduled to increase to $9.50 per hour on July 1, 2023."

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/state

alternative version:

"The federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. This rate applies to covered nonexempt workers. The minimum wage for employees who receive tips is $2.13 per hour. The amount of tips plus the $2.13 must reach at least $7.25 per hour.6 kwi 2023"

https://www.usa.gov/minimum-wage

(???)

"There are at least 1.1 million Americans (or 1.4% of all hourly paid workers) who earn less than or equal to the federal minimum wage as of 2021.9 lut 2023"

(usa popuiation 330m)

 

 

 

How many people will be "affected"?

How many people will use social?

(social does not increase inflaction? prisoners don't increase inflation? If government has to give them money, this way or another, gov has debt)

 

 

Stay objective, if you can.

I'm not complaining (and haven't complained) about minimum wages, but about their effect on inflation (which is huge in a country with a large population that draws minimums, and minimal in a country where few draw minimums). (It depends on how we understand "inflation", which is yet another level of complexity)

If you put in jail people who were so poor and removed them from registry, it is fake statistics.

 

It's not about minimal wages, but about influence of wages on the prices of the products at shelf. If majority of people of the country in question have some wage, and it is increased, then I have real problem seeing how it could not influence inflation (official version by gov). But how much people get minimal wage is country dependent. You ("swansont"), is living in parallel universe, and the rest of world in their own parallel universes..

 

ps. The whole topic has so many if-then-else that I have no idea how to write it in English or any non-programming language. A lawyer is like a hacker, trying to find a way to breach it..

 

[swansont]

4 hours ago, Sensei said:

.you are in one country, JC is in yet another, MigL is yet another country, and I am in yet another..

For which country is it needed? If I show you data for one country that is not yours, you will complain that is not yours (which happened in the past).. It's simple math. No politics. No economics.

The article cites data from the US. Inflation data from any other country would be irrelevant.

 

5 hours ago, Sensei said:

From what I see, in the US,

"The minimum wage is scheduled to increase to $9.50 per hour on July 1, 2023."

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/state

Looks like that’s for Puerto Rico.

And since it’s a future increase, there’s no data to look at.

5 hours ago, Sensei said:

alternative version:

"The federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. This rate applies to covered nonexempt workers. The minimum wage for employees who receive tips is $2.13 per hour. The amount of tips plus the $2.13 must reach at least $7.25 per hour.6 kwi 2023"

https://www.usa.gov/minimum-wage

(???)

"There are at least 1.1 million Americans (or 1.4% of all hourly paid workers) who earn less than or equal to the federal minimum wage as of 2021.9 lut 2023"

(usa popuiation 330m)

 

The article specifically excluded employees who get tips 

[dimreepr]

5 hours ago, Sensei said:

For which country is it needed? If I show you data for one country that is not yours, you will complain that is not yours (which happened in the past).. It's simple math. No politics. No economics.

It's never simple, they're so difficult to tell apart...😉

[John Cuthber]

On 5/27/2023 at 9:02 AM, Sensei said:

you are in one country, JC is in yet another, MigL is yet another country, and I am in yet another..

For which country is it needed? If I show you data for one country that is not yours, you will complain that is not yours (which happened in the past).. It's simple math. No politics. No economics.

If your original post, which said
 

On 5/13/2023 at 7:58 PM, Sensei said:

If wages are raised, the employer must 1) increase productivity or 2) raise the prices of the products. Which means inflation, an increase in the cost of living and reduced competitiveness in the global market.

had said something like "Outside of the UK which is magic, If wages are raised...s inflation, an increase in the cost of living ..."
You would have had a point.
Instead you doubled down on it saying

  

On 5/16/2023 at 4:20 PM, Sensei said:

If I make some claim, it is universal, worldwide..

Well, your assertion is not true universally.
It is not true for the UK in 1999.
It only needs one counter-example to prove once, and for all time, that you were wrong.
Nothing you can say or do now will stop that being true.

Similarly, while there may be problems tracing drugs, for example, this weed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galium_aparine#Chemistry
may complicate the analysis of caffeine use, it doesn't stop the technique being employed.
 

[Intoscience]

To add to the topic I thought I should share with you some real life experience which is happening right now.

The company I work for manufactures and the sells its products 80% directly to the public, 20% wholesale. As a result of increasing costs across the board, material supplies, energy, logistics & significant wage increases. The business is very labour intensive compared to its turn over so contributes to a high percentage of additional incurred cost. The business had no choice but to increase the retail price of the products from 10-20% (product range depending).  Guess what, sales have significantly fallen, both retail and wholesale. The company has now no other choice but to either make redundancies or put the staff on short time working. This is the reality of the economical market across the globe for lots of businesses. 

As from next week I'll be on short time working so earning 20% less. Honestly I would have prefeed the business not to have made the wage increases, kept jobs and people who now face difficult times due to a significant loss in income. 

 

[John Cuthber]

8 hours ago, Intoscience said:

To add to the topic I thought I should share with you some real life experience which is happening right now.

The company I work for manufactures and the sells its products 80% directly to the public, 20% wholesale. As a result of increasing costs across the board, material supplies, energy, logistics & significant wage increases. The business is very labour intensive compared to its turn over so contributes to a high percentage of additional incurred cost. The business had no choice but to increase the retail price of the products from 10-20% (product range depending).  Guess what, sales have significantly fallen, both retail and wholesale. The company has now no other choice but to either make redundancies or put the staff on short time working. This is the reality of the economical market across the globe for lots of businesses. 

As from next week I'll be on short time working so earning 20% less. Honestly I would have prefeed the business not to have made the wage increases, kept jobs and people who now face difficult times due to a significant loss in income. 

 

Thank you for your anecdote.
Sorry to hear that the company is struggling.

[swansont]

9 hours ago, Intoscience said:

To add to the topic I thought I should share with you some real life experience which is happening right now.

The company I work for manufactures and the sells its products 80% directly to the public, 20% wholesale. As a result of increasing costs across the board, material supplies, energy, logistics & significant wage increases. The business is very labour intensive compared to its turn over so contributes to a high percentage of additional incurred cost. The business had no choice but to increase the retail price of the products from 10-20% (product range depending).  Guess what, sales have significantly fallen, both retail and wholesale. The company has now no other choice but to either make redundancies or put the staff on short time working. This is the reality of the economical market across the globe for lots of businesses. 

As from next week I'll be on short time working so earning 20% less. Honestly I would have prefeed the business not to have made the wage increases, kept jobs and people who now face difficult times due to a significant loss in income. 

 

Sorry to hear, but what does this have to do with the US minimum wage? My understanding is the UK’s economy is suffering right now, for reasons unrelated to this issue.

[CharonY]

There are a couple of reports regarding the impact of minimum wage increases in the UK. For example :

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/minimum-wage-rates-for-2023/low-pay-commission-summary-of-findings-2022

It should also be noted that minimum wage is a particular part of the wage range and folks receiving it are particularly vulnerable to inflation, for example.

[Intoscience]

12 hours ago, John Cuthber said:

Thank you for your anecdote.
Sorry to hear that the company is struggling.

Thanks, worrying times for our employees!

11 hours ago, swansont said:

Sorry to hear, but what does this have to do with the US minimum wage? My understanding is the UK’s economy is suffering right now, for reasons unrelated to this issue.

Because it's not just the US that suffers from inflation, interest rates, cost of living etc... There are other countries affected with similar issues.  

[swansont]

4 hours ago, Intoscience said:

Because it's not just the US that suffers from inflation, interest rates, cost of living etc... There are other countries affected with similar issues.  

How is this tied to minimum wage being increased?

[DimaMazin]

Improvement the standard of living in the US can be a good response against the aggression of backward regimes. I don't understand why the need should need this data.