Bracewell Probe

[Moontanman]

In our many discussions about UFOs or UAPs I'm not sure we have ever discussed Bracewell Probes in any real detail and "if" the UAP/UFO phenomena turns out to be not of this earth I think the idea of a Bracewell Probe might be a viable explanation of not only where these objects originate but the concept might even explain some of their behaviors. 

A Bracewell Probe might have technological capabilities not predicted by Ronald N. Bracewell the originator of the concept in 1960. Not only could such a probe be combined with the concept of a Von Neumann probe the probe could build smaller drone type vehicles to explore and more closely observe the planets it was sent to watch it might even be capable of creating biological beings to direct or at aid it's observation of the target planetary system. 

Such a probe could remain dormant for thousands or even millions of years only occasionally observing the target planet and sending back data to it's creators. This would of course assume that the probes creators maintained interest over such huge time spans. 

The next question of course is how could we find or detect such alien technology in our solar system.  

[swansont]

So these would be unsuccessful Bracewell probes, seeing as they have not succeeded in communicating with us?

[John Cuthber]

2 hours ago, swansont said:

So these would be unsuccessful Bracewell probes, seeing as they have not succeeded in communicating with us?

Not necessarily. They may have successfully communicated between other civilisations, but not happened to reach ours yet.

[swansont]

Just now, John Cuthber said:

Not necessarily. They may have successfully communicated between other civilisations, but not happened to reach ours yet.

Then how are they UAP/ UFO phenomena, as specified in the OP?

[John Cuthber]

We haven't worked out what they are yet.

[TheVat]

3 hours ago, swansont said:

So these would be unsuccessful Bracewell probes, seeing as they have not succeeded in communicating with us?

 There is the Dark Forest scenario, where a civilization assumes contact risk is too high, so it might design probes only for covert surveillance.  (though UAP reports would seem to indicate an epic failure on that mission as well)

[swansont]

3 hours ago, TheVat said:

 There is the Dark Forest scenario, where a civilization assumes contact risk is too high, so it might design probes only for covert surveillance.  (though UAP reports would seem to indicate an epic failure on that mission as well)

The link provided in the OP says it’s for communication. If moontanman wants a different scenario, they should specify it.

5 hours ago, John Cuthber said:

We haven't worked out what they are yet.

But they’ve reached us, right? They are sightings on earth. And not successfully communicated with us.

I’m not seeing any wiggle room here.

[John Cuthber]

7 hours ago, swansont said:

I’m not seeing any wiggle room here.

 

13 hours ago, John Cuthber said:

yet.

Thus far, the only one among us to have been communicated with is the OP.

[TheVat]

 

8 hours ago, John Cuthber said:

Thus far, the only one among us to have been communicated with is the OP.

Wait, what?  Moontan has been communicated with by aliens??  How did I miss that?

16 hours ago, swansont said:

If moontanman wants a different scenario, they should specify it.

The OP didn't seem to specify that such probes would need to communicate to us.  The default mode, for the security of any civilization, would seem to be "observe first, say hello later."

Regarding the "they" - IIRC  Moontanman's pronoun is he.  And I'm not just alluding to his forum nom de plume.

I'll tag him, in case this needs correction...

@Moontanman

[swansont]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

The OP didn't seem to specify that such probes would need to communicate to us.  The default mode, for the security of any civilization, would seem to be "observe first, say hello later."

The linked description of the probe says so. It’s the “express purpose” of the probe .

“A Bracewell probe is a hypothetical concept for an autonomous interstellar space probe dispatched for the express purpose of communication with one or more alien civilizations.”

[Moontanman]

Communication with an alien civilization is but one possibility, at the time the idea was hypothesised the only reasonable contingency was to communicate with the civilization being studied. There are other possibilities, studying us and reporting back is but one, there could be several such probes in our solar system from different alien civilizations each with its own agenda. The UAP phenomena could be a study we simply do not know the reason for the intermittent exposure... often of technology just ahead of our own, see the alien airships sighted during the late 1800s. 

We are unlikely to understand the agenda of of an alien as we are the to understand the agenda of our own species in separate groups.  It could be they are just testing the reaction we have to the unknown and reporting back all the odd (to them) behavior of Homo sapiens. 

A long lived civilization could place such probes in any planetary system just to wait as see if anything interesting evolves there. Interesting to them could mean anything. 

The point being is could we detect such a probe, the delayed echo radio transmissions mentioned in the link could be a clue. There are some such echos that are far too long delayed to easily be explained.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_delayed_echo 

The point of this is Brace Well Probes existed could we devise a means to find them. 

On 5/19/2023 at 11:51 AM, TheVat said:

 

Wait, what?  Moontan has been communicated with by aliens??  How did I miss that?

The OP didn't seem to specify that such probes would need to communicate to us.  The default mode, for the security of any civilization, would seem to be "observe first, say hello later."

Regarding the "they" - IIRC  Moontanman's pronoun is he.  And I'm not just alluding to his forum nom de plume.

I'll tag him, in case this needs correction...

@Moontanman

Hang on let me check.... yeah he/him would seem to be the obvious answer unless I'm pregnant and about to have a baby elephant... want to see it's trunk?  

[TheVat]

20 hours ago, Moontanman said:

Hang on let me check.... yeah he/him would seem to be the obvious answer unless I'm pregnant and about to have a baby elephant... want to see it's trunk?  

 

Har!

Of course, observing with binoculars can give an incorrect sense of scale.

A vast proliferating cloud of Bracewell probes seems possible, where any system with parameters possibly supporting life gets a basic device which, if EM emissions or other indicators of emerging tech civilization are detected, can then multiply into specialized surveillance probes.  

 

[DanMP]

On 5/18/2023 at 5:45 PM, Moontanman said:

"if" the UAP/UFO phenomena turns out to be not of this earth I think the idea of a Bracewell Probe might be a viable explanation of not only where these objects originate but the concept might even explain some of their behaviors. 

No, I don't think that an alien civilization capable to reach our planet would be incapable to make contact with us. Not willing maybe, yet.

So, the UAP/UFO phenomena are:

1. natural phenomena, not fully/satisfactorily explained
2. caused by humans on purpose (practical joke, illusionism, etc.) or by accident (secret technology)
3. caused by aliens, but not as part of some official mission. If an alien civilization has achieved (although it's very improbable!) the technology for fast and not very expensive space travel, fast enough to make a trip to another planet and back in days/weeks, or the technology to jump back/forward in time or to jump to parallel universes and back (I personally don't buy/believe such things), it would be possible for private alien citizens to briefly visit us, just for fun. Official missions won't be so sloppy ... The officials would rather chase away those intruders.

Edited May 22, 2023 by DanMP

[DanMP]

On 5/22/2023 at 6:09 PM, DanMP said:

3. caused by aliens, but not as part of some official mission. If an alien civilization has achieved (although it's very improbable!) the technology for fast and not very expensive space travel, fast enough to make a trip to another planet and back in days/weeks, or the technology to jump back/forward in time or to jump to parallel universes and back (I personally don't buy/believe such things), it would be possible for private alien citizens to briefly visit us, just for fun. Official missions won't be so sloppy ... The officials would rather chase away those intruders.

I realized that "caused by aliens, but not as part of some official mission" + "The officials would rather chase away those intruders" is also true, and more probable, with long/normal travelling times. The probes, equipped with AI, may be sent by many different organizations/nations in many "waves"/years, with quite different technologies and agendas, resulting in apparently chaotic behavior of "the aliens".

We, from Earth, will probably send, in the next 100-200 years, dozens or even hundreds of such probes to the nearest interesting solar systems, and we already have many different nations and organizations involved in space exploration ...

 

And, if there are such alien probes here, they may be reluctant to contact us because:

1. they don't want to interfere in our development, until we achieve a certain level or
2. they are afraid that we may attack their home planet if we learn about it/them or
3. they don't want us to be prepared when their invading fleet would arrive ...

Edited May 29, 2023 by DanMP

[swansont]

1 hour ago, DanMP said:

We, from Earth, will probably send, in the next 100-200 years, dozens or even hundreds of such probes to the nearest interesting solar systems, and we already have many different nations and organizations involved in space exploration ...

It seems likely that deep space probes would be a collaborative effort, like the ISS, in order to defray costs.

 

1 hour ago, DanMP said:

And, if there are such alien probes here, they may be reluctant to contact us because:

1. they don't want to interfere in our development, until we achieve a certain level or
2. they are afraid that we may attack their home planet if we learn about it/them or
3. they don't want us to be prepared when their invading fleet would arrive ...

They would not be Bracewell probes; the OP went out of their way to specify one particular type of probe. These would have to be some other sort of probe.

[DanMP]

19 hours ago, swansont said:

It seems likely that deep space probes would be a collaborative effort, like the ISS, in order to defray costs

Maybe, but not necessarily. The Americans, Russians and Chinese are not getting along very well and have different space programs/projects ...  And we are talking about centuries from now ... and maybe more civilizations ... So one planet may have dozens/hundreds different visiting probes.

 

19 hours ago, swansont said:

They would not be Bracewell probes; the OP went out of their way to specify one particular type of probe. These would have to be some other sort of probe.

A Bracewell probe may delay the contact "until we achieve a certain level" (my option 1) or just be "afraid" of us (my option 2) and abort it.

If option 3 is the one, then the probe is not a Bracewell probe, yes, but we shouldn't ignore that possibility.

[swansont]

2 hours ago, DanMP said:

Maybe, but not necessarily. The Americans, Russians and Chinese are not getting along very well and have different space programs/projects ...  And we are talking about centuries from now ... and maybe more civilizations ... So one planet may have dozens/hundreds different visiting probes.

 

Solar system exploration isn’t the same thing, though. You can investigate new things without much overlap. But if one probe is sent to a distant world to see if there is life there, what benefit is there sending a second one, years later, but before any data is collected?

[DanMP]

On 5/30/2023 at 6:49 PM, swansont said:

Solar system exploration isn’t the same thing, though. You can investigate new things without much overlap. But if one probe is sent to a distant world to see if there is life there, what benefit is there sending a second one, years later, but before any data is collected?

Well, if the target is not very far (under 100 light years), new data may be collected in few decades/centuries, both by the first probe and/or by new/enhanced telescopes, or new data may arise due to the developments in the targeted planet (first EM emissions and/or other activities, like atomic explosions, artificial satellites, etc.).

Other reasons to send new probes may be: 

• the technology needed becomes less expensive 
• the new senders are not happy with the others agenda
• the enhanced technologies offer new, much better, approaches/possibilities (see here how I would do it)

 

Anyway, 

On 5/18/2023 at 5:45 PM, Moontanman said:

The next question of course is how could we find or detect such alien technology in our solar system.

If they are Bracewell probes, we shouldn't care. Just wait for them to contact us, when they consider appropriate.

If they are, instead, alien probes sent to spy us prior to a future invasion, we need to properly investigate all the sightings and also to prepare a defense, although our nuclear arsenals may deter such plans, because on arrival they may find here a destroyed, uninhabitable planet ...

[swansont]

3 hours ago, DanMP said:

Well, if the target is not very far (under 100 light years), new data may be collected in few decades/centuries,

At 100 LY, a probe moving at 0.1c (i.e. incredibly fast) will take 1000 years to arrive, and need an additional 100 years for the data to get to us.

[DanMP]

18 hours ago, swansont said:

At 100 LY, a probe moving at 0.1c (i.e. incredibly fast) will take 1000 years to arrive, and need an additional 100 years for the data to get to us.

0.1c with the technology that we can have or imagine today ... Even so, I wrote "under 100 light years", not 100 or over. If the distance is around 20 LY we can get info from the probe in 2-3 centuries. I also wrote about other ways to get new info + other reasons to send new probes.

And there may be more than one civilization around ...

[swansont]

2 hours ago, DanMP said:

0.1c with the technology that we can have or imagine today ... Even so, I wrote "under 100 light years", not 100 or over.

I used 100 because the math is uncomplicated.

If you want to present an analysis of how a rocket can get beyond 0.1c (how much fuel it would take, and how long it must accelerate, etc.) feel free to present it. 

 

2 hours ago, DanMP said:

And there may be more than one civilization around ...

How would we know, before the first probe sends us the data?

[DanMP]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

How would we know, before the first probe sends us the data?

No, I meant around us ... Another reason to have more alien probes, with different agendas, here.

[swansont]

2 hours ago, DanMP said:

No, I meant around us ... Another reason to have more alien probes, with different agendas, here.

OK, how do they know, and have had time to send more probes? Why are they showing up at basically the same time?

[DanMP]

18 hours ago, swansont said:

OK, how do they know, and have had time to send more probes? Why are they showing up at basically the same time?

Well, I'm not really interested in this alien theme/subject and it seems that neither are you, because if you were, you would know about ancient aliens/astronauts theory, also that an alien civilization may be much older/advanced than ours, that a probe may stay hidden long long time, and so on.

I wrote about this subject mostly because I hoped that someone interested in it, and talented, would be inspired by my ideas and write nice SF novels or movie scenarios.

I don't know about you, but I decided to let others take over, if they want/need to. For me it's enough.