TFG or That Florida Guy? Either way, can the GOP win in 2024?

[Phi for All]

Many Republicans who still like living in a democracy will not be voting for someone who stole classified documents, manipulated election officials, and led an insurrection against the US. TFG's base isn't interested in the GOP or democracy. The Fascist Floridian made a YUGE mistake, imo, by his extreme stance on abortion, complete with draconian laws: https://www.newsweek.com/ron-desantis-just-made-himself-unelectable-president-opinion-1790939

And let's not forget that COVID-19 disproportionately affected Republican voters because TFG told them they didn't need to vaccinate or wear masks: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30512/w30512.pdf

Considering that TFG lost the popular vote in 2020 by 7M, is there any way, short of another electoral college upset, that the GOP wins the presidency in 2024?

[iNow]

13 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

is there any way, short of another electoral college upset, that the GOP wins the presidency in 2024?

Other than by continuing to benefit from and amplify their existing gerrymandering and voter suppression efforts, you mean?

Why, yes! They’re ALSO going to use AI to create deep fake videos and microtarget them into the most suspect conspiracy prone minds across social platforms to reshape the truth narrative. This generates enormous numbers of small dollar donations, themselves amplified by SuperPac megabillions of dark money flooding the zones with misinformation and FUD. 

Tl;dr: Make sure only the “right” people vote and dilute opponents power through widespread lies and fictions. 

[StringJunky]

i think they are amplifying on their base because they know they don't have winning numbers. By the end of the year, I think we'll be hearing about a more moderate Republican manifesto.... if they can neuter the Freedom Caucus types. I think DeSantis will have probably run out of steam by then. 

[MigL]

This mght actually belong to the thread on racism reparations ( formely racist whiteboards ), but if you want another way to mitigate racism ( and fascism ) in the US, you could start by putting the biggest enablrer, former President D Trump, in jail, until he dies a quiet, forgotten death.

[zapatos]

Quote

A "unity" team running for the White House next year may sound farfetched -- one Republican and one Democrat teaming up to share a platform and a presidential ticket -- but some Democrats say they are worried that such a possibility could spoil Joe Biden's reelection hopes.

And they're looking to stop it.

No Labels is the group floating a bipartisan team-up if 2024 features the increasingly likely rematch of Biden versus Donald Trump, both of whom face weak approval ratings. Democrats, burned by third-party candidates who may have tipped key states in 2016 -- when, for example, Hillary Clinton lost Michigan to Trump by 11,000 votes while Libertarian Gary Johnson earned 172,000 ballots -- are sounding the alarm that No Labels could similarly siphon votes from Biden.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/unity-ticket-2024-presidential-race-democrats-objecting-3rd/story?id=99773854

[mistermack]

There are ways that the Republicans can win the White House. It's against the odds, but sure, it can happen. 

I don't think that there's any doubt as to who will be the candidate though. Unless there is some legal means of preventing Trump from running. He's sure to get the nomination. So it's Donald vs. Joe for President, barring new sensational developments. 

Donald will get all of his loonies out to vote for him, but the big question is, will he motivate enough "don't really care" voters to vote against him? 

Biden is Biden, he has his followers, but really, it's pro-Donalds vs. anti-Donalds. That's how it will play out. Whoever can persuade them to turn out will win. If you could vote on your phone, Joe would win. But you can't, so the turnout is the unknown. 

If I had to bet my life on the result, I would of course back Joe, and you can apparently get 3/1 in the UK at the moment, if you want to back Donald. So it's not a great outlook for any Republican voter who isn't a Donald fan.

[StringJunky]

8 minutes ago, zapatos said:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/unity-ticket-2024-presidential-race-democrats-objecting-3rd/story?id=99773854

They created a product that they think fills a need; an antidote to the toxic partisanship. Should be a good indicator to each side how far apart they are. doesn't matter if they don't get the votes if it encourages more reaching over the aisle on both sides to avoid the bipartisans succeeding.

Edited June 17, 2023 by StringJunky
changed bipartisan to partisan to make more sense

[MigL]

The American solution to a problem is more of the same.

The problem is only two political parties ?
The solution is to 'reduce' it to one only.

What could possibly go wrong ?

[iNow]

6 hours ago, MigL said:

in the US, you could start by putting the biggest enablrer, former President D Trump, in jail, until he dies

And perhaps the enfranchised citizens on the Grand Jury will do just that, but until then we’ll have to wait and see.  

6 hours ago, zapatos said:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/unity-ticket-2024-presidential-race-democrats-objecting-3rd/story?id=99773854

The Unity team. Yes, it’s aka the Joe Manchin / Susan Collins ticket. Sounds good in spirit, but shooting ourselves in the foot in practice (when considered in context of vote counts in narrowly gerrymandered districts themselves already being won by only 200-600 votes… the thinnest margins are the first to tear. 

And they know it, too… Joe, Susan, Lisa Merkowski and them all know their continued participation mostly increases the chance Trump wins a 2nd term. They want to send a message though, not a nuclear political warhead so I reckon they will turn into a pumpkin and go largely quiet nearer to August / end of summer. 

[zapatos]

12 minutes ago, iNow said:

I reckon they will turn into a pumpkin and go largely quiet nearer to August / end of summer. 

God I hope so. Don't know if I can deal with Trump again. I'll have to turn off media for four years/till he dies.

[iNow]

2 minutes ago, zapatos said:

God I hope so. Don't know if I can deal with Trump again. I'll have to turn off media for four years/till he dies.

Trumpism is bigger than Trump. Trump is just an avatar for their grievance. Sadly that part isn’t likely going anywhere any time soon. 

[exchemist]

3 hours ago, iNow said:

Trumpism is bigger than Trump. Trump is just an avatar for their grievance. Sadly that part isn’t likely going anywhere any time soon. 

Not sure I’m persuaded of that. A yuge part of Trump’s success, surely, has been his cult of personality, hasn’t it? They can’t just transfer that to De Sanity Clause or some other loathsome specimen.

[geordief]

7 hours ago, exchemist said:

Not sure I’m persuaded of that. A yuge part of Trump’s success, surely, has been his cult of personality, hasn’t it? They can’t just transfer that to De Sanity Clause or some other loathsome specimen.

I thought there was a view when T first got power that  the person following him would be more dangerous  bc more savvy and acceptable. 

I don't think  that held much water as to date T has jumped nearly every hurdle .

In a sense it is all or nothing for the T base.

After him they seem unlikely  to  win a general election .But times change and the Dems can implode.

 

Imo they have to ditch their two party system  It is almost as bad as the one party system.

[exchemist]

21 minutes ago, geordief said:

I thought there was a view when T first got power that  the person following him would be more dangerous  bc more savvy and acceptable. 

I don't think  that held much water as to date T has jumped nearly every hurdle .

In a sense it is all or nothing for the T base.

After him they seem unlikely  to  win a general election .But times change and the Dems can implode.

 

Imo they have to ditch their two party system  It is almost as bad as the one party system.

That was going to be De Sanity Clause I think. But he seems to be proving so uncharismatic and unpleasant that he's not gaining the traction he hoped, even though aping TFG at every turn. 

By the way, "TFG" always makes me laugh. I instinctively think it means either That F***ing Guy or The Fat Guy, though actually I gather it doesn't stand for either.

Suppose if it were the latter then Chris "Zeppelin" Christie would have to be (TFG)². 

 

[iNow]

7 hours ago, exchemist said:

A yuge part of Trump’s success, surely, has been his cult of personality, hasn’t it?

That’s surely part of it, but as I said Trumpism will remain even if Trump disappears. The grievance politics are as old as time.

Fearing the woke mob taking away freedoms or guns, believing others want them to apologize for being white, refusing to accept transgenderism, election results, or feeling that the system is rigged and they haven’t been given a fair shake. “It’s YOUR fault that MY life’s not better!!”

Trump may have amplified a previously quiet set of militias and KKK membership, but those folks have always been there and don’t ever seem to go away. They just used to be quieter. Now, they’ve have been given a permission structure to say whatever they really think openly, out loud in public, and without shame. 

None of that ends when Trump is gone, and in fact it’ll probably be worse moving forward with all of the bubbled and closed off information ecosystems and disinformation lattices. 

Edited June 18, 2023 by iNow

[geordief]

36 minutes ago, exchemist said:

was going to be De Sanity Clause I think. But he seems to be proving so uncharismatic and unpleasant that he's not gaining the traction he hoped, even though aping TFG at every turn. 

No ,I think it was considered (and wished for by the Nazi esque groups  who thought he was a joke) before anyone in particular  was prominent.

 

They just thought he would clear the ground for someone  savvier (and in their  mould presumably)

[TheVat]

54 minutes ago, iNow said:

None of that ends when Trump is gone, and in fact it’ll probably be worse moving forward with all of the bubbled and closed off information ecosystems and disinformation lattices. 

Disinformation lattices - you sure talk fancy, mister.   Trumpism seems like what you describe in the rest of that post, a sort of Nazism Lite.  I also see elements of the thirty year old Contract with America, drafted by Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey (how perfect is that name?), blended with the White persecution complex and a dollop of autocracy.  

And like Nazism, it creates the spectre of a sinister elite and bashes those with advanced expertise and education.  For Hitler, that resulted in driving out a large portion of Germany's best scientific minds and so proved self-defeating.  Imagine a WW2 where all those Manhattan Project brains in the scientific exodus stayed in Germany.  Could have been even uglier than it was.

I remember reading a history where they described Hitler's early years, and someone asks him, who will be the brains in a National Socialist revolution, and he replies, I will be the brains!  Now that sounds very Trump-like.

1 hour ago, exchemist said:

By the way, "TFG" always makes me laugh. I instinctively think it means either That F***ing Guy or The Fat Guy, though actually I gather it doesn't stand for either.

I had a similar take.   And understand that many people are growing averse to repeating the actual surname of this malignant turd, so The Former Guy provides a name-free option which also stresses the wish that his moment has passed.  I once tried, during TFG's term of office, to promote NMPOTUS as an alternative but it didn't catch on.  

[CharonY]

6 hours ago, iNow said:

That’s surely part of it, but as I said Trumpism will remain even if Trump disappears. The grievance politics are as old as time.

And it is the same trend in Europe, independent of Trump. He really is just the symptom, not the cause. Grievance politics was always a fallback position, especially when the situation is either bad or perceived as such, often with little or no connection to reality (which makes them so powerful).

You just need to make people think that something is threatening their lifestyle (e.g. crime, housing cost, etc.) and then find some convenient scapegoats (ideally powerless ones, such as minorities, immigrants or if you run out of ideas for some reasons Jews are a favorite group). Just keep things nebulous enough and you can make folks to do virtually anything, even against their interest, in order to combat that nebulous "foe".

One would think that after so many historic examples folks would eventually learn, but if anything recent history has shown that well, we don't. And I do think it is a convenient distraction to blame folks like Trump, as it implies that if he is gone, things will change for the better. But this is clearly only an illusion.

[zapatos]

5 minutes ago, CharonY said:

And I do think it is a convenient distraction to blame folks like Trump, as it implies that if he is gone, things will change for the better. But this is clearly only an illusion.

I disagree with this. The angry far right is always there. I guess the Tea Party was the last manifestation. But things were better then as no one like Trump made it to the White House. Not many people elected by the far right are stupid enough to hurt our country like Trump did and continues to do. If you cut the head off the snake the body may still squirm and flail about, but it is much less dangerous without the head. MAGA without someone willing to overthrow the government is simply a difference of opinion conveyed with anger.

[StringJunky]

18 hours ago, zapatos said:

God I hope so. Don't know if I can deal with Trump again. I'll have to turn off media for four years/till he dies.

TRUMP FOR PRES! Seriously, this is not a likely outcome. If the US brings him in again, I can only conclude that the US has a bigger problem than Russia. Regime change will be necessary in both countries. Half-joking.  

[zapatos]

2 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

TRUMP FOR PRES! Seriously, this is not a likely outcome. If the US brings him in again, I can only conclude that the US has a bigger problem than Russia. Regime change will be necessary in both countries. Half-joking.  

I don't think it's likely either but the impact would be significant which is why he still manages to give me heartburn occasionally. . I'm also not likely to die next year but if I did it would really put a crimp in my schedule. 🤪

[StringJunky]

6 minutes ago, zapatos said:

I don't think it's likely either but the impact would be significant which is why he still manages to give me heartburn occasionally. . I'm also not likely to die next year but if I did it would really put a crimp in my schedule. 🤪

 He is Kim Jong Un material. We''ve a busy schedule: Putin, XI, Jong Un. I think we are in for a long period of instability.

Edited June 18, 2023 by StringJunky

[iNow]

51 minutes ago, zapatos said:

If you cut the head off the snake the body may still squirm and flail about, but it is much less dangerous without the head. MAGA without someone willing to overthrow the government is simply a difference of opinion conveyed with anger.

Yes, but… Any empty suit would do (see also Ron DeSantis and that nationalist Indian business guy).

Sprinkle in some Saudi Funding, Russian/Chinese social narrative engineering, and Hillbilly Elegy campaign energy… voila!

Your next POTUS. 

[zapatos]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Yes, but… Any empty suit would do (see also Ron DeSantis and that nationalist Indian business guy).

Sprinkle in some Saudi Funding, Russian/Chinese social narrative engineering, and Hillbilly Elegy campaign energy… voila!

Your next POTUS. 

I may be mistaken, but while DeSantis as POTUS would likely do many things I object to, he doesn't strike me as someone who would purposely do structural damage to his country simply for his own benefit. I really do find Trump to be a sociopath (amongst his many other similarly endearing traits).

[iNow]

Interesting aside:

There are technically three (3) Florida guys running for the GOP primary right now:

1. Former (45th) President of the US, Donald John Trump, junior

2. Current Governor of the US State of Florida, Ron tiny D DeSantis

3. Current Mayor of the city of Miami, Florida USA, Francis Xavier Suarez

Pretty sure only that last one has wrestled a real life honest to goodness Florida gator though, and that those other two are pretty much just overcompensating insecure pansy asses.