TFG or That Florida Guy? Either way, can the GOP win in 2024?

[geordief]

17 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

I wasn't trying to mark a difference. I don't see your point. Name another big country that split up into 50 smaller countries

You implied that smaller countries would be (or appear to be) too costly to run.But the world is full of small countries  so they must be economically viable.

 

No ,I don't have an example  but anyone can be the first.It would not be easy but if there is a demand it can be difficult to resist (eg Scotland)

 

I think I just feel.USA (and other big States) is too big for its citizens to feel a democratic  part of the whole  and that decentralization has its attractions.

Sure there are other forces dividing people but the actual size of very big countries stands out to me as a barrier.

Mind you national identity is a bit of a mystery  to.me.

[TheVat]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

Why don't you just split into fifty countries?

49.  North and South Dakota are like two peas in a pod.  Wait, make that 48, Oregon and Washington are pretty similar...

Seriously, the original Missouri Territory (from around 1820), would probably just form one state - it would include the Dakotas, Nebraska, Missouri (obv) and other northern plains states that all have enough in common to form a cohesive (and conservative) nation.

51 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Yes. Do you find he is purposely doing structural damage to his state and/or the institutions of government? Seems more like he is doing this for show to let people know he is an anti-woke warrior.

I guess some of this turns on what structural means.  Was it DeSantis who tried to bring back a form of poll tax, barring ex-cons from voting if they had legal/court fees outstanding?  IIRC it worked as disenfranchisement because how many ex-cons have extra money on hand?  

[zapatos]

29 minutes ago, TheVat said:

I guess some of this turns on what structural means.  Was it DeSantis who tried to bring back a form of poll tax, barring ex-cons from voting if they had legal/court fees outstanding?  IIRC it worked as disenfranchisement because how many ex-cons have extra money on hand?  

Yes, I didn't really describe what I meant by 'structural'. I was basically referring to the rules we abide by that makes this country what it is. Mitch McConnell played some pretty dirty tricks when he denied Obama the ability to seat a Supreme Court Justice yet gave Trump that ability four years later under similar circumstances. But, McConnell was well within the rules; he simply took advantage of somewhat poor wording. Can't blame the guy for taking advantage of the situation. 

DeSantis seems to be performing similarly. He is fighting Disney by using the rules, and when he oversteps he does not try to have judges thrown out or incite violence.

Trump on the other hand breaks the law, encourages others to do so, and attempts to circumvent the rules that have kept us together for a couple hundred years. Trump is more of a threat to our country continuing to exist as a federal democratic republic than Germany or Japan ever were.

[Phi for All]

1 hour ago, geordief said:

You implied that smaller countries would be (or appear to be) too costly to run.But the world is full of small countries  so they must be economically viable.

I said, "They... fail to understand just how big their state government would have to be to keep their heads above water". Many of the red states in the US that are shouting about secession or cutting ties with the Federal government are dependent on the Federal government, receiving more federal aid than the state takes in with taxes: https://smartadvisormatch.com/data/states-most-dependent-on-the-federal-government-2019-edition

Quote

Nearly 44% of Mississippi's state government income comes from the federal government. In that metric, Mississippi ranks first. In general, Mississippi does not tend to send much back to the federal government, either. For every income tax dollar Mississippi sends to Uncle Sam, the federal government sends the Mississippi state government $2.48.

 

1 hour ago, geordief said:

I think I just feel.USA (and other big States) is too big for its citizens to feel a democratic  part of the whole  and that decentralization has its attractions.

Sure there are other forces dividing people but the actual size of very big countries stands out to me as a barrier.

As a globalist, I don't share this view. If you fix this problem we've always had between people with resources and people with the skills to turn resources into work, then higher numbers actually favor us. We're a fraction of the size of some countries that have a LOT more national identity, so I'd blame our culture rather than our size.

We're trying to get to total capitalism, thinking that must be better than total communism or total socialism. Give us a better mix of economics, give us ranked-choice voting, give us more representation than two mega-parties, and figure out a way to better inform and educate The People so they can feel their efforts at being a citizen are worthwwhile.

[geordief]

@Phi for All

" trying to get to total capitalism, thinking that must be better than total communism or total socialism. Give us a better mix of economics, give us ranked-choice voting, give us more representation than two mega-parties, and figure out a way to better inform and educate The People so they can feel their efforts at being a citizen are worthwwhile."

Sounds good to me? Is any progress being made in that direction?

Any baby steps? Any proposals  for reforms of the electoral system  that  might  mitigate the damage that the two party hegemony seems (to me) to be causing to the body politic ?

 

I seem to remember, the  problem (in my eyes) was the overdue influence corporate  money had on the political system 

 

Now it turns out that Trump (with his disregard for truthfulness and decency) has been able to siphon off donations from individual donors whereas the corporations I used to despise seem to be a bulwark against reactionary policies(they have to appeal to their consumers who may not like their instinctive  policies)

[TheVat]

Amanda Marcotte amusingly and incisively details Trump's low energy state.  

https://www.salon.com/2023/06/29/gops-lackluster-frontrunner-seems-awfully-low-energy-lately/

Per forum rules, no need to read this, but it gets at some reasons he really only has his MAGA base at this point and little prospect of expanding beyond that crowd of simpletons.

 

 

[zapatos]

Fun article!! Well, fun for people like me who don't like Trump.

[geordief]

I liked "Even someone like Trump, who draws surprising amounts of energy simply from being evil, only has so many hours in the day"

[J.C.MacSwell]

A moderate Republican (many here would consider that some mythical creature...) would no doubt lose the Trump base, and anyone else might lose most of it...so enabling the most extreme Democrats to make demands of the Democrat agenda and make this much closer than it respectively could be or should be...so yes...it's possible.

Trump himself? Can't see it but I was wrong last time.

[geordief]

3 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

A moderate Republican (many here would consider that some mythical creature...) would no doubt lose the Trump base, and anyone else might lose most of it...so enabling the most extreme Democrats to make demands of the Democrat agenda and make this much closer than it respectively could be or should be...so yes...it's possible.

Trump himself? Can't see it but I was wrong last time.

I saw it last time.I was hoping(and expecting) him to lose  but very fearful that he might win..

 

More hopeful this time around but even more fearful if something goes wrong.

 

Let's hope that 8 months is a long time in politics  and that a year and a half is longer too.

And that life in jail is longer still.

 

[Airbrush]

It seems like a fool's errand to try to prove that Trump knew he really lost the election.  He will NEVER break character about the 2020 election.  He is someone who "does everything right" and never "did anything wrong."

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, Airbrush said:

It seems like a fool's errand to try to prove that Trump knew he really lost the election.  He will NEVER break character about the 2020 election.  He is someone who "does everything right" and never "did anything wrong."

Narcissist par excellence.

[geordief]

2 hours ago, Airbrush said:

It seems like a fool's errand to try to prove that Trump knew he really lost the election.  He will NEVER break character about the 2020 election.  He is someone who "does everything right" and never "did anything wrong."

I think the hope is that he said as much directly to any potential witness.

He has already done this regarding classified documents (admitting in front of witnesses that he was unable to show them something bc  it was still classified)

Is his request to Raffensberger that he needed to find a  certain  number  of votes a tacit  admission that he had lost? (unless he is claiming Raffensberger was concealing them ,which he never did claim)

Edited July 14, 2023 by geordief

[Phi for All]

18 hours ago, Airbrush said:

It seems like a fool's errand to try to prove that Trump knew he really lost the election.

16 hours ago, geordief said:

I think the hope is that he said as much directly to any potential witness.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/13/trump-admission-election-aides-january-6-panel
 

Quote

 

During the ninth and possibly final hearing, the committee investigating the January 6 insurrection shared new testimony from Alyssa Farah, a former White House aide, who said that a week after the election was called in favor of Biden, Trump was watching Biden on the television in the Oval Office, and said: “‘Can you believe I lost to this effing guy?’”

In another new clip of testimony from Cassidy Hutchinson, a top aide to former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows, she shared that Trump told Meadows: “I don’t want people to know we lost, Mark. This is embarrassing. Figure it out.”

 

Even if he won't say "lost" where the public can hear, he's admitted to not winning.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-finally-admits-defeat-i-didnt-win-election-1695339
 

Quote

During part of the interview when he was discussing his attempts to get South Korean President Moon Jae-in to pay more for U.S. military support, Trump said: "when I didn't win the election, he had to be the happiest..." before revising his comment to suggest that Iran, China and Russia might have been happier.

-------

In other media appearances, Trump has also made remarks appearing to concede that President Joe Biden won the 2020 election. During an interview on Flashpoint, a religious public affairs show, Trump said, "had we won the election," his border wall with Mexico would almost be complete.

 

[Airbrush]

On 7/14/2023 at 1:59 PM, geordief said:

I think the hope is that he said as much directly to any potential witness.

He has already done this regarding classified documents (admitting in front of witnesses that he was unable to show them something bc  it was still classified)

Is his request to Raffensberger that he needed to find a  certain  number  of votes a tacit  admission that he had lost? (unless he is claiming Raffensberger was concealing them ,which he never did claim)

"Trump wanted the department to act because it would give legitimacy to his claims that the election was stolen from him, the panel said.  In a Dec. 27 call with acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen and Donoghue, Trump was not interested in the actual results of a DOJ investigation, Donoghue said.  Rosen told Trump the department could not change the outcome of an election.

“He responded very quickly,” Donoghue said. “And he said, essentially, ‘That’s not what I’m asking you to do. What I’m asking you to do is to say it was corrupt and leave the rest to me and the Republican congressmen.’”

"These handwritten notes show that President Trump directly instructed our nation's top law enforcement agency to take steps to overturn a free and fair election in the final days of his presidency," Maloney said in a statement.

READ: Notes from December 2020 phone call between Trump and Justice Department officials | CNN Politics

 

 

 

 

[StringJunky]

The opening first line from this Intercept article sums up Trump to a tee:

Quote

ONLY A CAREER criminal finds himself facing four indictments in four different jurisdictions at the same time. 

https://theintercept.com/2023/07/30/trump-indictments-stormy-daniels-pardon/

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by StringJunky

[geordief]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

The opening first line from this Intercept article sums up Trump to a tee:

 

I always felt his m.o. was to say something that he knew was wrong on some level and to try to get those who he was with to agree with it on some level so that they too had some investment in the kite he was flying.

I thought he pussy tapes showed this.(and his insistence for "loyalty" from his underlings)

He was trying to rope that  person into his inner circle of  low life behaviour ,if only by his not confronting it openly but acquiescing with their silence.

I think of him as a "corrupter".

Still it turned out that almost all of his colleagues in the actual government saw past him  and spoke out after their jobs with him were over.

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by geordief

[Airbrush]

The 2024 election is still a coin flip who wins.  Biden and Trump have been polling almost even lately.  All we can hope for is that the facts of his recent indictments for serious crimes will come out in public enough to impact enough independents in time for the election.  Biden could win 2024 popular vote by 8 million and still lose due to the electoral college.

Edited August 5, 2023 by Airbrush

[Airbrush]

Let's see if the GOP debate or Tucker's interview of TFG has any influence on the polls.  Recently I saw a poll that said basically 2/3 of Americans don't want a clown for president.  But what about the electoral college?  Still a coin flip.  

Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they won't support Trump in 2024 (usatoday.com)

"President-elect Joe Biden topped President Trump by nearly 7 million votes, and 74 votes in the Electoral College, but his victory really was stitched together with narrow margins in a handful of states."

"just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College."

Biden Won By Narrow Margins In Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin : NPR

Edited August 20, 2023 by Airbrush

[Steve81]

To offer a few thoughts, the best way to deal with the likes of Trump is to directly address the concerns of his base, and explain it to them in understandable terms what is being done about their problems.

A couple thoughts come to mind...

1. The opioid epidemic. 

As of March 2021, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted that drug overdose death rates continue to rise in both rural and urban areas. In five states, California, Connecticut, North Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia, the rate of drug-overdose deaths in rural counties were higher than those in urban counties. In addition, a December 2017 survey by the National Farmers Union and the American Farm Bureau Federation found that as many as 74 percent of farmers have been directly impacted by the opioid crisis.

Emphasis mine. Is it any wonder these folks might not trust vaccines from pharmaceutical companies? And let's talk about that "massive" settlement to punish the pharmaceutical manufacturers. 

$26 Billion Agreement with Opioid Distributors/Manufacturer 

On July 21, 2021, a bipartisan coalition of attorneys general announced final agreements with Johnson & Johnson, a manufacturer of prescription opioids, and the three major pharmaceutical distributors — Amerisource Bergen, Cardinal Health, and McKesson. These agreements resolve legal claims against those companies stemming from actions that fueled the opioid addiction epidemic in return for their payment of $26 billion and commitment to make major changes in how they do business to improve safety and oversight over the distribution of prescription opioid.  

$26 Billion sounds like a substantial sum of money, but given the millions of lives destroyed, it is a pittance.

2. Illegal immigration. Clearly, this is an issue that they care about. Anyone watching news coverage on a Trump rally when he talks about his wall can hear the crowd cheer. Developing a logical plan to deal with this issue is critical. The only way we stop people from wanting to come to the United States for a better life, is to make their lives better in their home countries. That takes a significant international investment in organizations like USAID and the World Bank; the US can't fix all of Central and South America's problems on its own; that much is patently obvious. Encouraging (but not forcing) democratic ideals at home would also make a difference. 

Dealing with those two big ticket issues might well turn down a lot of political heat and give Trump very little breathing room come election time. My 2 cents.

[TheVat]

Agree on the approaches to opioids (Perdue also deserved a much heavier penalty) and immigration, and I think Biden should have taken the tiller more on immigration rather than handing off to Harris.  And the right wing news bubble doesn't help either, as Faux and other Murdochian news outlets have ignored positive things Biden has initiated or spun them negatively.

One place where Biden can really shine, in a campaign, is that he can avoid negative atttacks and just sell his positive accomplishments.  Old guys are better at not taking the bait (well, some old guys).  If he ends up passing the torch to someone else next summer, I hope they are also of that temperament and listen to Joe.  

[StringJunky]

If the GOP carries on as it is, I can't see how they can swing the swingers, that they need, their way. 

[Steve81]

59 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Agree on the approaches to opioids (Perdue also deserved a much heavier penalty) and immigration, and I think Biden should have taken the tiller more on immigration rather than handing off to Harris.  And the right wing news bubble doesn't help either, as Faux and other Murdochian news outlets have ignored positive things Biden has initiated or spun them negatively.

One place where Biden can really shine, in a campaign, is that he can avoid negative atttacks and just sell his positive accomplishments.  Old guys are better at not taking the bait (well, some old guys).  If he ends up passing the torch to someone else next summer, I hope they are also of that temperament and listen to Joe.  

Tell your elected representatives; that's how we effect the change we want to see.

Re: Biden, I saw him speak during the mid-term election cycle. He's not exactly a senile old fool like some people like to portray. He's not as good as say, Jamie Raskin, in terms of oratory, but he was sufficient to take on Trump IMHO.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Steve81

[Steve81]

My thoughts on the psychological tendencies of Donald Trump…love trying to read those tea leaves 😆

1. Impulse control & communication: he spouts off half baked, oftentimes offensive things. I’d opine he’s not necessarily trying to be an a-hole sometimes, nor is he mentally retarded; he just doesn’t know how to communicate his ideas effectively. Injecting bleach may be a horrible plan, but the concept of something that could disinfect us from the inside out is hardly a bad thing; it doesn’t exist, though it would be nice if it did. I was taking to a dentist about this yesterday, and she observed that she “injects” bleach regularly during root canals to sterilize the area.

2. Defensiveness and grudge holding. Due to the above, Trump tends to get a great deal of negative feedback, which he takes a great deal of personal offense to. The effects of this are quite clear, and I don’t think I need to say more.

My *non-professional* opinion is that Trump may well have good intentions and this comes through in his attempts to get the ball rolling on certain issues. He’s just severely misunderstood due to #1, and this causes him to be mocked, leading to #2. Not a good mix of characteristics for being POTUS, but he may not be the devil incarnate either.

Edit for clarification: bleach is used at the root canal site, vs injected into the blood stream.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Steve81

[Genady]

13 minutes ago, Steve81 said:

Trump may well have good intentions

As in staying president after being democratically defeated.