iNow Posted February 7 Posted February 7 32 minutes ago, TheVat said: in many elections, registered Democrats just didn't get to the polls in the same numbers Turnout has been at record highs, actually. Problem is he only needs to win by a few hundred votes in one or two small counties in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pretty much every other location is already decided today based on gerrymandered districts and nano-targeted ads and social feed infusion https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/ Quote Adults who voted in at least one election during the period divide evenly between Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party or Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in their current party affiliation (48% each). The subset who voted in all three elections are similarly divided (49% Democrats, 50% Republicans). Citizens who did not vote in any of the three tilt Republican by 46% to 41%. Democrats outnumbered Republicans among the 8% of adult citizens who voted in 2018 and 2020 but not 2022 (55% Democratic, 40% Republican). A similar-sized group (8%) voted in 2020 and 2022 but not 2018, and this group’s composition tilts Republican (57%, vs. 40% Democratic). The 12% who voted in 2020 and opted out of both the 2018 and 2022 midterms were roughly evenly divided among Democrats (46%) and Republicans (43%).
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 8 Posted February 8 However close and wherever it comes down to, some voters that aren't already committed are going to make the difference and decide the outcome. How do Trump's current actions, which seems to control the GOP's current actions, make those open to voting either way look more favourably on Trump or the GOP than they would otherwise? How is this considered so easy to spin rather than likely to backfire?
iNow Posted February 9 Posted February 9 23 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said: How do Trump's current actions, which seems to control the GOP's current actions, make those open to voting either way look more favourably on Trump or the GOP than they would otherwise? “Donald Trump is a poor man's idea of a rich man, a weak man's idea of a strong man, and a stupid man's idea of a smart man.” He’s a Rorschach test where everyone sees whatever they want inside the blob. 1
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 11 Posted February 11 Politician makes major blowhard gaff on campaign trail: "Former President Donald Trump used a rally in South Carolina on Saturday to attack rival Nikki Haley in her home state — and to mock the absence of her husband, who is deployed overseas. “Where’s her husband? Oh, he’s away. … What happened to her husband? Where is he? He’s gone,” Trump said at his rally in Conway, his first visit to the state this year. Michael Haley is deployed in Africa with the South Carolina Army National Guard in support of the United States Africa Command, his second active-duty deployment overseas." ... "Notably, former first lady Melania Trump has not joined her husband for any public campaign events since his presidential announcement in November 2022 and has not appeared alongside him at any of his court appearances." https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/10/politics/trump-south-carolina-primary-haley/index.html Oops. Sorry. It was Trump and it wasn't even murder...nothing to see here...carry on.
iNow Posted February 11 Posted February 11 Some say it wasn’t a gaff, but instead a cheap shot suggesting she’s so insufferable that her spouse would rather be in Africa soldiering
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 11 Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, iNow said: Some say it wasn’t a gaff, but instead a cheap shot suggesting she’s so insufferable that her spouse would rather be in Africa soldiering Trump? Cheapshot? Surely he was just concerned for her marriage.... Seriously though...on what planet is this good politics? Perhaps there's more to Trump than meets the eye: 1
iNow Posted February 11 Posted February 11 23 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: on what planet is this good politics? Ours, apparently. The trolling and rubbing of other people’s faces into the dirt is the entire point… reinforcing their “otherness.” Politicians preaching belonging and community require extra security protection and therapy after all the death threats.
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 11 Posted February 11 1 hour ago, iNow said: Ours, apparently. The trolling and rubbing of other people’s faces into the dirt is the entire point… reinforcing their “otherness.” Politicians preaching belonging and community require extra security protection and therapy after all the death threats. I know you would agree this should backfire. But won't this backfire? Even if you assume the voting Republicans are into crap like that doesn't Trump hope to win the general election?
iNow Posted February 11 Posted February 11 22 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: doesn't Trump hope to win the general election? Probably doesn’t much matter since he’ll just claim it was stolen from him when he loses and his supporters will prove it with their bullets and blades.
AIkonoklazt Posted February 11 Posted February 11 I don't know about "GOP" but that asshat is still ahead in the polls (and always ahead when I check, which is why I usually don't check) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
Janus Posted February 11 Posted February 11 9 hours ago, AIkonoklazt said: I don't know about "GOP" but that asshat is still ahead in the polls (and always ahead when I check, which is why I usually don't check) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ I wouldn't place too much faith in the polls; as of late, they have been shown to be highly unreliable. Right up to the '22 midterms they were predicting a "Red wave" with Republicans making large gains in the House (60+ seats). In the Ohio election dealing with the Republicans attempt to change the requirements to alter the state constitution, the polls said it was close and could go either way, while in the election it was overwhelmingly rejected. And most recently, a Democrat won in Florida in a red district when polls showed him losing. A lot of this can be put down to the polling methods not keeping up with the times and thus oversampling certain segments of the population and under-sampling others.
TheVat Posted February 11 Posted February 11 One possible interpretation is that those who want another Trump presidency really want Trump, while those who want Biden are more equivocal in their support, and blend into a large bloc that really want neither. So an actual election might find that the majority that doesn't want Trump will cast a Biden vote even if they didn't answer surveys as a Biden supporter.
dimreepr Posted February 12 Posted February 12 (edited) 21 hours ago, TheVat said: One possible interpretation is that those who want another Trump presidency really want Trump, while those who want Biden are more equivocal in their support, and blend into a large bloc that really want neither. So an actual election might find that the majority that doesn't want Trump will cast a Biden vote even if they didn't answer surveys as a Biden supporter. Indeed, for Trump to win the GOP will have to pull some serious strings, not least of which is maintaining the illusion that he has any idea why his supporters are supporting him? Other than his God-like genes-ios... 28 minutes ago, dimreepr said: Other than his God-like genes-ios... Sorry folks I forgot to explain this one; it can be read in 2 different way's: a, God genes like Ios and b, Godlike genios; both of which he would approve, although he'd have know idea where the sniggering was coming from... 😉 Edited February 12 by dimreepr
AIkonoklazt Posted February 12 Posted February 12 On 2/11/2024 at 9:21 AM, TheVat said: One possible interpretation is that those who want another Trump presidency really want Trump, while those who want Biden are more equivocal in their support, and blend into a large bloc that really want neither. So an actual election might find that the majority that doesn't want Trump will cast a Biden vote even if they didn't answer surveys as a Biden supporter. Then I'm really curious as to what the poll questions actually are, as in do they just straight up ask "who are you going to vote for in the 2024 presidential election" instead of some weird stuff that gives people non-committal wiggling room. If it's a straightforward "Biden or Trump for 2024?" then anyone from never-Trumpers to hardcore Biden campers would obviously answer "Biden."
TheVat Posted February 13 Posted February 13 4 hours ago, AIkonoklazt said: Then I'm really curious as to what the poll questions actually are, as in do they just straight up ask "who are you going to vote for in the 2024 presidential election" instead of some weird stuff that gives people non-committal wiggling room. If it's a straightforward "Biden or Trump for 2024?" then anyone from never-Trumpers to hardcore Biden campers would obviously answer "Biden." Also curious re the polling. It is possible some people take the Don't Know off ramp. While I personally have not the faintest clue as to how anyone could not know, given the choice, I recognize that some personalities have a reticence about committing in such surveys. For me, the choice would be something on the order of Would you prefer a long sensual embrace and kiss from Margot Robbie or having Ebola vomited into your face by the reanimated corpse of Joseph Stalin? 1
iNow Posted February 13 Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, TheVat said: For me, the choice would be something on the order of Would you prefer a long sensual embrace and kiss from Margot Robbie or having Ebola vomited into your face by the reanimated corpse of Joseph Stalin? You’ve summed up the way Trump voters feel about Biden quite accurately. 1
StringJunky Posted February 13 Posted February 13 (edited) 12 minutes ago, iNow said: You’ve summed up the way Trump voters feel about Biden quite accurately. It's that very poison that actually animates the MAGAs. Most people would turn away. Edited February 13 by StringJunky added
zapatos Posted February 13 Posted February 13 3 hours ago, TheVat said: Would you prefer a long sensual embrace and kiss from Margot Robbie or having Ebola vomited into your face by the reanimated corpse of Joseph Stalin? Har! 🤣
toucana Posted February 13 Posted February 13 On 2/11/2024 at 12:43 AM, iNow said: Ours, apparently. The trolling and rubbing of other people’s faces into the dirt is the entire point… reinforcing their “otherness.” Roberta Kaplan the counsel for E. Jean Carroll recently recounted the experience of meeting Donald Trump at Mar a Lago to take a deposition, and of him telling her “See you next Tuesday” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/02/robert-kaplan-trump-c-word-e-jean-carroll-lawyer “What are you saying ?” she replied , “We are not due in court until next Wednesday ?”. It was only when she was being driven away from Mar a Lago that her staff explained to her what TFG had really meant. Meanwhile Trump who famously congratulated “The great state of Kansas” back in 2020 when the Kansas City Chiefs won Superbowl LIV (they play in Kansas City Missouri) is having another meltdown about the same team winning Superbowl LVIII at the w/e. https://www.marca.com/en/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/2024/02/12/65ca04b746163fa5638b457e.html Apparently it’s all a ‘Deep State’ psy-op involving Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift to prevent him from winning the 2024 election.
dimreepr Posted February 13 Posted February 13 1 hour ago, toucana said: Apparently it’s all a ‘Deep State’ psy-op involving Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift to prevent him from winning the 2024 election. Apparently??? I have to trust which ever vacuous brand you choose to believe, and neither of them were a python???
TheVat Posted February 13 Posted February 13 1 hour ago, toucana said: “What are you saying ?” she replied , “We are not due in court until next Wednesday ?”. It was only when she was being driven away from Mar a Lago that her staff explained to her what TFG had really meant. Every so often I am re-amazed at how we got to the place of experiencing this as normal. We have a former president and leading GOP candidate for future president who goes around issuing crude insults in code, like a snickering middle school child.
StringJunky Posted February 16 Posted February 16 Trump's down for another judgement of $350m-ish. The judgement summary: Quote SUMMARY Donald Trump and entities he controls own many valuable properties, including office buildings, hotels, and golf courses. Acquiring and developing such properties required huge amounts of cash. Accordingly, the entities borrowed from banks and other lenders. The lenders required personal guarantees from Donald Trump, which were based on statements of financial condition compiled by accountants that Donald Trump engaged. The accountants created these “compilations” based on data submitted by the Trump entities. In order to borrow more and at lower rates, defendants submitted blatantly false financial data to the accountants, resulting in fraudulent financial statements. When confronted at trial with the statements, defendants’ fact and expert witnesses simply denied reality, and defendants failed to accept responsibility or to impose internal controls to prevent future recurrences. As detailed herein, this Court now finds defendants liable, continues the appointment of an Independent Monitor, orders the installation of an Independent Director of Compliance, and limits defendants’ right to conduct business in New York for a few years. https://eddsa.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/public/452564_2022_PEOPLE_OF_THE_STATE_OF_v_PEOPLE_OF_THE_STATE_OF_DECISION_AFTER_TRIAL_1688.pdf
geordief Posted February 16 Posted February 16 (edited) 5 minutes ago, StringJunky said: Trump's down for another judgement of $350m-ish. The judgement summary: Seems a lot but the prosecution's case was that it was representative of the profit he made on his misrepresentations. I think he should be fined extra just for being who he is. We should give him the witch hunt he claims he is getting. (Has he claimed Brit Ekland was begging for it yet?) Edited February 16 by geordief 1
swansont Posted February 17 Posted February 17 14 hours ago, StringJunky said: Trump's down for another judgement of $350m-ish. What he owes is even more, because they charge interest. It comes to more than $450 million https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/02/16/donald-trump-real-estate-fraud/72267145007/ 1
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 17 Posted February 17 1 hour ago, swansont said: What he owes is even more, because they charge interest. It comes to more than $450 million https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/02/16/donald-trump-real-estate-fraud/72267145007/ Assuming he ends up paying...who gets the money?
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