TFG or That Florida Guy? Either way, can the GOP win in 2024?

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

What he owes is even more, because they charge interest. It comes to more than $450 million

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/02/16/donald-trump-real-estate-fraud/72267145007/

Apparently so, reading later, it seems people who challenge these types of judgements pay interest from the day after the court case.  He can't use campaign funds on this either because it's not a political matter.

[dimreepr]

1 minute ago, StringJunky said:

Apparently so, reading later, it seems people who challenge these types of judgements pay interest from the day after the court case.  He can't use campaign funds on this either because it's not a political matter.

Like he won't play double or quits, with his Patek Philippe... 

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, dimreepr said:

Like he won't play double or quits, with his Patek Philippe... 

He'd sell his kids if he thought it was worth it. 

[iNow]

2 hours ago, StringJunky said:

He can't use campaign funds on this either because it's not a political matter.

It’s never stopped him before 

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/trumps-legal-debts-top-half-billion-dollars-pay-107311283

Quote

Over the last two years, Trump’s Save America political action committee, his presidential campaign and his other fundraising organizations have devoted $76.7 million to legal fees. Campaign finance experts expect Trump will try to spend PAC money to defray the cost of his judgments in some way.

“The likelihood of the Federal Election Commission in its current configuration pursuing these violations is not terribly great,” said Daniel Weiner, director of the Brennan Center’s Elections and Government Program.

 

[swansont]

TFG raiding his political coffers, and that of the RNC (now that Lara Trump is in charge) means less money spent on actual campaigns. 

[StringJunky]

6 hours ago, swansont said:

TFG raiding his political coffers, and that of the RNC (now that Lara Trump is in charge) means less money spent on actual campaigns. 

If I were Trump's opposition, my attack ads would be on how much Republican-base money is being diverted away from  actually getting the party back in government.

Edited February 17 by StringJunky

[iNow]

18 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

If I were Trump's opposition, my attack ads would be on how much Republican-base money is being diverted away from  actually getting the party back in government.

How would you target the ads? What population would be most convincible?

By now, after 9 years of every 3rd news story being about him, everyone knows exactly who they’re voting for in a few months (or more specifically, whom they’re voting against) 

[StringJunky]

37 minutes ago, iNow said:

How would you target the ads? What population would be most convincible?

By now, after 9 years of every 3rd news story being about him, everyone knows exactly who they’re voting for in a few months (or more specifically, whom they’re voting against) 

Hayley's on it:

Quote

Nikki Haley said she is less concerned about Donald Trump’s legal troubles than how the former president planned to pay the crushing penalties for his actions.

“My biggest issue is I don’t want the RNC to become his legal defense fund. I don’t want the RNC to become his piggy bank for his personal court cases. We’ve already seen him spend $50 million worth of campaign contributions toward his personal court cases,” Haley told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Friday.

“Now we see him trying to get control of the RNC, so he can continue not to have to pay his own legal fees,” Haley continued. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/17/haley-rnc-trump-money-00142050

 

[J.C.MacSwell]

I would like to think that Trump's base is not as committed as he would hope (and given it's Tump you can read that as "he should expect"). They can't be all of one mind.

Even the rightmost news medias seem to be holding Putin for his treatment if not directly ordered assassination of Navalny. Trump has not yet commented, and has been a longtime admirer if not mutual supporter of Putin.

Haley is calling his silence out. Accurately. If she doesn't get at least a temporary bump in the polls at Trump's expense Trump will likely win in November if Biden struggles or if their is any significant drop in the economy even beyond his control.

Mostly my opinion of course. Maybe tomorrow I'll feel a little more optimistic. Hopefully I won't have to and I'll see that bump.

Also just noticed Stringy's post...hopefully that has an effect as well.

[StringJunky]

The 2020 GOP presidential election spend was $793m. With inflation, let's say it will be $1B this year. The GOP will have to find the $1B plus his court fees, which are nearing half a billion already. He could easily clean up an election years worth of revenue. Can his fanbase  support that?

Edited February 18 by StringJunky

[swansont]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

If I were Trump's opposition, my attack ads would be on how much Republican-base money is being diverted away from  actually getting the party back in government.

Sure. He lied about his wealth, and if he takes this money to pay his bills, that’s just more confirmation that he lied. Hammer home the message about him being a liar. 

Attack ads on Trump will be a rich medium this summer.

I would mock his new sneaker line. “Does it give you enough agility to dodge indictments?”

[iNow]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Haley is calling his silence out. Accurately.

And that’s why she’s down in GOP polls and votes 

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

And that’s why she’s down in GOP polls and votes 

Just her presence in the political limelight  is diverting attention and money off him. She's an asset to her opposition.

[J.C.MacSwell]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

And that’s why she’s down in GOP polls and votes 

I don't think the fallout, if there will be any, from Putin doing in Navalny would have registered on any polls yet.

[zapatos]

16 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Just her presence in the political limelight  is diverting attention and money off him. She's an asset to her opposition.

And I suspect she figures that if he does end up in jail then she will be next in line for the nomination.

[iNow]

10 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

I don't think the fallout, if there will be any, from Putin doing in Navalny would have registered on any polls yet.

Yeah, valid point ✌️

10 hours ago, zapatos said:

And I suspect she figures that if he does end up in jail then she will be next in line for the nomination.

We may see a contested convention. 

Regardless of his legal posture. 

[toucana]

23 hours ago, StringJunky said:

The 2020 GOP presidential election spend was $793m. With inflation, let's say it will be $1B this year. The GOP will have to find the $1B plus his court fees, which are nearing half a billion already. He could easily clean up an election years worth of revenue. Can his fanbase  support that?

The fanbase recently started a GoFundMe campaign to cover his costs after the latest Judge Engoron ruling. The GoFundMe allegedly raised around $84,000 in the first 24 hours - which equates to around 0.01% of the billion or so that TFG will need to cover all his legal costs, fines and interest payments. That's a "long row to hoe" as they say.

[StringJunky]

13 minutes ago, toucana said:

The fanbase recently started a GoFundMe campaign to cover his costs after the latest Judge Engoron ruling. The GoFundMe allegedly raised around $84,000 in the first 24 hours - which equates to around 0.01% of the billion or so that TFG will need to cover all his legal costs, fines and interest payments. That's a "long row to hoe" as they say.

If we assume his strongest fans are on Truth Social, he has 607 000 monthly users that might be sucker enough to pay $1650 each to clear a billion debt. I doubt it though.

Edited February 19 by StringJunky

[iNow]

Foreign autocrats will pay it through back channels so he becomes even more of a dog in a leash subservient to their desires and demands than he already is. 

[J.C.MacSwell]

8 hours ago, iNow said:

Foreign autocrats will pay it through back channels so he becomes even more of a dog in a leash subservient to their desires and demands than he already is. 

Pocket change for Putin.

[dimreepr]

11 hours ago, iNow said:

Foreign autocrats will pay it through back channels so he becomes even more of a dog in a leash subservient to their desires and demands than he already is. 

He's such a good dog (the best), so he couldn't imagine why they would need a leash, he's so pwoerful and stwong that he's only got to wag his tail for everyone to just love, him.

I just can't see how the GOP can "pull it off" this time...

[iNow]

3 hours ago, dimreepr said:

I just can't see how the GOP can "pull it off" this time...

It’s closer this year than it was in 2020. 

[TheVat]

Wisconsin guv just signed a new redistricting bill, which removes most of the Republican gerrymanders.  That might help with some of the House races (but I don't know how much effect the new maps have on US congressional districts v. statehouse districts).  The House races are going to be critical this year, in terms of providing some reigning in of a demented and vengeful TFG (if he wins).  NY and CA are also looking at potential seat flips.  

Though I've defended Biden in several threads here, his confusion of leaders of Egypt and Mexico the other day (a verbal gaffe I'm pretty sure, rather than a deeper confusion) seems to reflect a continuing decline that is worrisome.  I've been hearing some compelling arguments from Dem pundits that Biden should bow out before the Convention and pass the torch to one of the younger stars currently sitting on the bench.  Mark Kelly, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, are some of the alternatives who look pretty strong and would definitely get me more excited about 2024.  I think them continuing to boost Biden is okay, boosting solidarity and showing gratitude to Biden for the amazing job he's done in a very trying term, and they can keep doing that until the Convention draws nigh.  But then, maybe Joe needs to do some candid self-reflection (if he hasn't already) and work with his team to figure out who might best carry on his work.  

As usual, Trump's ongoing and nonstop incoherence (Pennsylvania is going to change its name, Putin should feel free to attack our NATO allies if they can't keep up their membership payments, etc.) gets a pass from his adoring zombies.  

Edited February 19 by TheVat
pyto

[zapatos]

31 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Though I've defended Biden in several threads here, his confusion of leaders of Egypt and Mexico the other day (a verbal gaffe I'm pretty sure, rather than a deeper confusion) seems to reflect a continuing decline that is worrisome. 

Is there a connection between the type of verbal gaffe you mentioned and one's inability to do the job of Presidency?

From my rather limited view I don't think I've known a mother (mine included) who didn't regularly call their children by the wrong name.

[swansont]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

Though I've defended Biden in several threads here, his confusion of leaders of Egypt and Mexico the other day (a verbal gaffe I'm pretty sure, rather than a deeper confusion) seems to reflect a continuing decline that is worrisome

I read that Egyptians have use "Mexico" as secret code for Al-Sisi to avoid censorship since they’re not allowed to criticize his regime. If that’s true, the mixup doesn’t seem so strange.