npts2020 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 4 minutes ago, iNow said: Except a conviction will lead to him getting fewer votes even among his ardent supporters and thus not serving at all given how tight the margins appear to be https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/americans-divided-whether-president-biden-received-special-treatment-classified-documents-report Quote A majority of Americans say they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony or was currently serving time in prison. A bare majority (55%) say that they would NOT vote for Donald Trump if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury, while 58% say they would NOT vote for Trump if he was currently serving time in prison I don't know what the numbers are for just Republicans, since they will be the ones (except in a few states with open primaries)to decide who is the Republican nominee. When Trump beats his closest competitor in her home state by 20 points, including all of the Republicans who don't like him, I don't see things getting closer throughout the rest of the country even if he is convicted of multiple crimes. You have to remember, a large plurality (if not in fact a majority) of Republicans still like to claim the election in 2000 was stolen and that all of the charges against Trump are politically motivated (never mind the fact that The Donald and his companies have been in court literally thousands of times and with numerous convictions previous to any of the current suits). Democrats should hope Trump wins because I don't think Biden can beat anyone else (totally my 2⍧).
iNow Posted February 27 Posted February 27 33 minutes ago, npts2020 said: I don't see things getting closer throughout the rest of the country even if he is convicted of multiple crimes But polls of actual voters do 34 minutes ago, npts2020 said: You have to remember, a large plurality (if not in fact a majority) of Republicans still like to claim the election in 2000 was stolen Most claim the 2020 election was stolen. It’s like a purity test.
TheVat Posted February 27 Posted February 27 12 hours ago, npts2020 said: Maybe but I am not that optimistic. Besides, it seems any likely VP will be as bad or worse policy wise. If he actually ended up both in jail and President, think of the taxpayer money that could be saved on paying for secret service protection and golfing junkets. LoL. And generally you don't get your own special gourmet chef in prison. Though one does hear of powerful mobsters back in the day who managed to accrue a lot of perks while imprisoned. Any convictions will come well after the convention, given the pace of such proceedings, so a jailbird Trump scenario would have no effect on primaries. If the polls @iNow cites are accurate as to likely voters in the general election, then it will be a second Biden term thanks to Independents and suburban gop moderates who are being repelled by TFG. Also a possibility that TFG, if convicted, would be sentenced to house arrest in light of his age and the security issues that prisons present. Not difficult to imagine comedy sketches featuring a White House with Trump strolling around in an electronic ankle bracelet. 1
dimreepr Posted February 27 Posted February 27 7 minutes ago, TheVat said: LoL. And generally you don't get your own special gourmet chef in prison. Though one does hear of powerful mobsters back in the day who managed to accrue a lot of perks while imprisoned. Any convictions will come well after the convention, given the pace of such proceedings, so a jailbird Trump scenario would have no effect on primaries. If the polls @iNow cites are accurate as to likely voters in the general election, then it will be a second Biden term thanks to Independents and suburban gop moderates who are being repelled by TFG. Also a possibility that TFG, if convicted, would be sentenced to house arrest in light of his age and the security issues that prisons present. Not difficult to imagine comedy sketches featuring a White House with Trump strolling around in an electronic ankle bracelet. I can only imagine that he got hard... Which seems unlikely...
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 27 Posted February 27 1 hour ago, TheVat said: Not difficult to imagine comedy sketches featuring a White House with Trump strolling around in an electronic ankle bracelet. LOL. can see a otherwise serious West Wing with everyone ignoring the fact that everytime he gets up he drags around a ball and chain version of the ankle bracelet...
StringJunky Posted February 27 Posted February 27 3 hours ago, TheVat said: Also a possibility that TFG, if convicted, would be sentenced to house arrest in light of his age and the security issues that prisons present. Not difficult to imagine comedy sketches featuring a White House with Trump strolling around in an electronic ankle bracelet. I understand your ADX prisons are pretty hardcore on security. Concrete beds, windows that you can only see the sky. Just the ticket.
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 28 Posted February 28 Good News? Haley got more votes from the GOP than her counterpart did from the Dems... Her counterpart being "uncommitted".
TheVat Posted March 3 Posted March 3 Some background reading (not necessary for the discussion but I found it informative) on the history of the US Supreme Court and how we had best not expect it to swoop in and save democracy. https://www.vox.com/scotus/24086594/donald-trump-supreme-court-trial-immunity-never-going-to-save-us
CharonY Posted March 3 Posted March 3 On 2/28/2024 at 6:17 AM, J.C.MacSwell said: Good News? Haley got more votes from the GOP than her counterpart did from the Dems... Her counterpart being "uncommitted". How about bad news? Siena/Times poll finds Trump leading by 5 points with 10% not responding. They report that 10% of Biden voters swing to Trump. Interestingly, although the US has one of the best recoveries, folks indicate economic woes.
iNow Posted March 3 Posted March 3 9 hours ago, CharonY said: How about bad news? Siena/Times poll finds Trump leading by 5 points with 10% not responding. They report that 10% of Biden voters swing to Trump. Interestingly, although the US has one of the best recoveries, folks indicate economic woes. Likewise, Biden’s unfavorables are now higher than Trumps And too old
TheVat Posted March 3 Posted March 3 Reminds me of a recent piece in The Atlantic where Bidens liabilities are examined, while still advocating him as the best choice to run against Trump: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/03/case-biden/677591/ Biden’s age is so concerning that many Biden supporters now believe he should step aside and let some other candidate become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. The New York Times journalist Ezra Klein made the best-available case for this view recently in a 4,000-word piece that garnered intense attention by arguing that Biden is no longer up to the task of campaign life. “He is not the campaigner he was, even five years ago,” Klein writes. “The way he moves, the energy in his voice. The Democrats denying decline are only fooling themselves.” In one sense Klein is correct. As the political strategist Mike Murphy said many moons ago, Biden’s age is like a gigantic pair of antlers he wears on his head, all day every day. Even when he does something exceptional—like visit a war zone in Ukraine, or whip inflation—the people applauding him are thinking, Can’t. Stop. Staring. At. The antlers. Biden can’t shed these antlers. He’s going to wear them from now until November 5. If anything, they’ll probably grow. That said, there’s another point worth noting up front: Joe Biden is almost certainly the strongest possible candidate Democrats can field against Donald Trump in 2024. Biden’s strengths as a candidate are considerable. He has presided over an extraordinarily productive first term in which he’s passed multiple pieces of popular legislation with bipartisan majorities. Unemployment is at its lowest low, GDP growth is robust, real wage gains have been led by the bottom quartile, and the American economy has achieved a post-COVID soft landing that makes us the envy of the world. He has no major scandals. His handling of American foreign policy has been stronger and defter than any recent president’s.... Here's a paywall-free link https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/truth-decay-experts-hilary-putnam/677590/?gift=43H6YzEv1tnFbOn4MRsWYgFR401awbUQPgvR5BkL2xk&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
CharonY Posted March 4 Posted March 4 It goes back to a discussion we (the forum) had back in 2016 and IIRC, we kind of formed a consensus around assumption that as long as Trump hires competent folks and keeps his fingers from important stuff, all will be fine. And for a while it was, until crises hit (e.g. COVID-19) and he started replacing competent folks. Now he has made it pretty clear that he won't even try to govern normally. Given the whole package and all we learned about him, it is horrifying. And while Biden is a bit older (and let's face it, neither is at peak mental capacity, though one started with a disqualifying baseline), he has got connections and staff who are not sycophants and are able to provide the needed talent and expertise. Heck, if it comes to the worst, Harris would be a good substitute, whereas Trump might run with moldy ham, if it he saw an advantage for himself.
J.C.MacSwell Posted March 4 Posted March 4 Moldy ham as potential POTUS? Trump, moldy ham, Mike Johnson...hmm ... given potential 1 and current 3...moldy ham's not looking so bad
J.C.MacSwell Posted March 4 Posted March 4 In the last good news we might see for a while... Haley wins DC primary https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/03/politics/nikki-haley-dc-primary/index.html
Phi for All Posted March 4 Author Posted March 4 At some point, I think historians are going to blame a LOT of the stupid in this country on FOX News and how they train uneducated people to misunderstand things. Maria Bartiromo had an economist on her show yesterday warning us of rampant inflation under Biden partly because of "faster wage growth". He literally claimed that we have to get wage growth under 3% or it's going to be very bad for the economy. No pushback at all from Maria. Huh. It's one thing to only tell TFG fans what they want to hear because you don't want to lose them as viewers, but this should be a criminal offense, imo. Most of these viewers still think the news isn't just entertainment, that it can't outright lie.
iNow Posted March 4 Posted March 4 I have family who feels Fox is too liberal and shown insufficient fealty to Trump and so have switched over to OAN and Newsmax in the same way they left more common social media like FB and Twitter instead for Parlor then Truth social. TikTok and the like then amplifies the issue, both algorithmically and with hints of active meddling from various nefarious undemocratic actors.
zapatos Posted March 5 Posted March 5 3 hours ago, iNow said: I have family who feels Fox is too liberal and shown insufficient fealty to Trump I'll bet Thanksgiving with your family is fun!
J.C.MacSwell Posted March 5 Posted March 5 46 minutes ago, iNow said: We don’t spend holidays together That's so nice...you make time for them on non-holidays!
CharonY Posted March 5 Posted March 5 8 hours ago, Phi for All said: At some point, I think historians are going to blame a LOT of the stupid in this country on FOX News and how they train uneducated people to misunderstand things. Maria Bartiromo had an economist on her show yesterday warning us of rampant inflation under Biden partly because of "faster wage growth". He literally claimed that we have to get wage growth under 3% or it's going to be very bad for the economy. No pushback at all from Maria. Huh. It's one thing to only tell TFG fans what they want to hear because you don't want to lose them as viewers, but this should be a criminal offense, imo. Most of these viewers still think the news isn't just entertainment, that it can't outright lie. I think this is a very US-centric view. I am fairly confident that internationally, critical thinking ability of college students have declined. And those are the ones who are supposed to hone this skills during their studies. There is likely more than one cause but the decline is changing the face and curricula of colleges. Unfortunately not for the better.
LaurieAG Posted March 5 Posted March 5 10 hours ago, Phi for All said: At some point, I think historians are going to blame a LOT of the stupid in this country on FOX News and how they train uneducated people to misunderstand things. That's funny, I always got the impression that those 'deplorables' who vote for Trump thought the media stole the election through its biased poll 'figures'. But then again I did read an article today that related their opinions to mass psychosis/conspiracy theories.
zapatos Posted March 5 Posted March 5 7 hours ago, LaurieAG said: That's funny, I always got the impression that those 'deplorables' who vote for Trump thought the media stole the election through its biased poll 'figures'. As deplorable as they might be, I believe they know that someone does not win an election by getting the most votes in a poll.
CharonY Posted March 5 Posted March 5 On 3/3/2024 at 8:23 AM, iNow said: Likewise, Biden’s unfavorables are now higher than Trumps And too old Just to add to that, folks also seem to have a worse memory and attention span (not to mention internal inconsistency). For example: Quote Voters between 18 and 29 years old, traditionally a heavily Democratic demographic, jump out. Nearly three quarters of them disapprove of the way Mr. Biden is handling the conflict in Gaza. And among registered voters, they say they would vote for Mr. Trump by 49 percent to 43 percent — in July, those young voters backed Mr. Biden by 10 percentage points. The assumption that Trump would do a better job or even side with Palestinians appears preposterous (they haven't given him enough money to warrant that). Folks in various groups are more likely to think that Trump's policies have helped them more than Biden's policies: At least based on sentiments alone, Trump has a rather clear path to the presidency (and this time he is motivated by the fact of not wanting to go to jail).
LaurieAG Posted March 6 Posted March 6 12 hours ago, zapatos said: As deplorable as they might be, I believe they know that someone does not win an election by getting the most votes in a poll. Although biased polls might possibly influence the vote of some of those who aren't too bright. 11 hours ago, CharonY said: The assumption that Trump would do a better job or even side with Palestinians appears preposterous (they haven't given him enough money to warrant that). If the choice were between a guarantee of 'getting into heaven' or winning an election what do you think Trumps choice would be?
dimreepr Posted March 6 Posted March 6 10 hours ago, LaurieAG said: Although biased polls might possibly influence the vote of some of those who aren't too bright. The thing about bias is, intelligence has little to do with it... So, the more voters, the less we have to rely on what's considered "the light at the end of the tunnel". And consider which way the light is pointing... 😇
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