Suggestions for using AI

[npts2020]

16 hours ago, swansont said:

Roads are not a self-contained system. 

At present, they are not but it isn't impossible to make transit systems self contained. 

[Endy0816]

1 hour ago, npts2020 said:

At present, they are not but it isn't impossible to make transit systems self contained. 

 

Yes really does make sense for major corridors. Highways in the US are semi-exclusive to an extent already.

Would at least want trucks for efficiency and to be able to alter logistics in an emergency.

Main question is what future population density will look like.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Endy0816

[Peterkin]

The two big questions regarding major change in traffic regulations:

What will it cost?

How will people react?

Some cities have made great improvements already.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Peterkin

[swansont]

10 hours ago, npts2020 said:

At present, they are not but it isn't impossible to make transit systems self contained. 

Transit systems yes - rail systems, for example - but we were specifically talking about self-driving cars. Roadways are very interconnected.

And it’s not just the isolation of the system. The discrete nature of trains simplifies the problem, as opposed to the many cars and many destinations of road systems. 

[npts2020]

1 hour ago, Peterkin said:

What will it cost?

Well, about 15 years ago I estimated the cost of rebuilding most of the roads in the US to accommodate an automated system at around $3-4 trillion. A vast sum, to be sure, but a good deal less than we collectively paid for the then current system (which we still have). By coincidence, the amount of paved roads in the US is almost exactly the same as the area of solar panels required to power the entire country. All of this is an entirely different discussion from the OP, tho.

9 minutes ago, swansont said:

Transit systems yes - rail systems, for example - but we were specifically talking about self-driving cars. Roadways are very interconnected.

And it’s not just the isolation of the system. The discrete nature of trains simplifies the problem, as opposed to the many cars and many destinations of road systems. 

In a system where ALL of the vehicles are automated and you don't have other random obstructions, AI could easily deal with varying speeds for local or long distance commuting and safely put vehicles in their proper lanes.

[swansont]

2 hours ago, npts2020 said:

In a system where ALL of the vehicles are automated and you don't have other random obstructions, AI could easily deal with varying speeds for local or long distance commuting and safely put vehicles in their proper lanes.

So you need to have a roadway system with no pedestrians - not even after the passengers leave the car. A city with no inhabitants. Plus no construction, or downed trees, or any other random obstacle. The navigation has to rely on the centralized automation rather than visual cues. 

It can only work if all the cars are automated, and you have to drive everywhere.

 

[Peterkin]

3 hours ago, npts2020 said:

Well, about 15 years ago I estimated the cost of rebuilding most of the roads in the US to accommodate an automated system at around $3-4 trillion. A vast sum, to be sure, but a good deal less than we collectively paid for the then current system (which we still have). By coincidence, the amount of paved roads in the US is almost exactly the same as the area of solar panels required to power the entire country. All of this is an entirely different discussion from the OP, tho.

Not really. The self-driving vehicles are not exclusively, or even predominantly, personal or rental cars: there are already automated buses and trucks on the road. I have predicted that, after the gradual takeover by autonomous vehicle is complete, all the roads will be safer. I realize that, although the incompatibility problem faded away, traffic safety did not improve after gas-fuelled cars took over from horse-powered ones, but I believe the situations differ in several significant ways: we are already set up for cars, so the signage and rules don't need substantial change; the automated cars won't speed; they're as capable of finding their way home when the human passenger is incapacitated as horses were. 

It has been suggested - and not only by me - that the mass transit system be automated. That's separate from general private traffic - which also needs regulation and co-ordination with the public transit. But it is an enormous investment to upgrade a system. This changeover would have to be introduced all at once, system-wide, not piecemeal year by year. The question remains whether a municipality can raise the necessary funds.

And the reaction of residents to any innovation is always a question. As they are objecting to automated taxis, they may well object to any kind change that entails public spending and imposes limits on their accustomed freedom of movement. 

51 minutes ago, swansont said:

So you need to have a roadway system with no pedestrians - not even after the passengers leave the car.

There is no reason that buses and subways can't be sequestered from pedestrian walkways, as they already are, with designated points to board and alight from them. Rental or shuttle cars can pick their fares up at one location, travel along the sequestered vehicle lanes and stop at the destination, without incursions into the bicycle lane or walkway, or shopping promenade. There is no need for private vehicles to be allowed in the city center. They can be restricted to designated vehicle-only roads, as several European cities have already done.

Technically, these are not real problems. The problems come in human form.  

 

 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Peterkin

[swansont]

50 minutes ago, Peterkin said:

Not really. The self-driving vehicles are not exclusively, or even predominantly, personal or rental cars: there are already automated buses and trucks on the road.

Citation? I’ve found sources that peg the number at ~30 million (2021), but they say cars.  I see stories of a test program for buses in the UK, but it’s very small scale.

(ETA- I see the number for the US is a thousand or two, so I wonder where are these millions of cars? I can’t find actual numbers for China, who allegedly have the most)

50 minutes ago, Peterkin said:

I have predicted that, after the gradual takeover by autonomous vehicle is complete, all the roads will be safer.

30 million vs 1.4 billion cars means we have a long way to go

 

50 minutes ago, Peterkin said:

There is no reason that buses and subways can't be sequestered from pedestrian walkways, as they already are, with designated points to board and alight from them. Rental or shuttle cars can pick their fares up at one location, travel along the sequestered vehicle lanes and stop at the destination, without incursions into the bicycle lane or walkway, or shopping promenade. There is no need for private vehicles to be allowed in the city center. They can be restricted to designated vehicle-only roads, as several European cities have already done.

Technically, these are not real problems. The problems come in human form.  

The goalposts keep moving. Buses and trains are not source-to-destination, as autos are, and I think that’s the source of the big problems. I’ve raised concerns about driverless cars. Responses citing trains and buses does not address the issues, and is a tacit admission that these problems are not currently close to being solved. 

And European cities aren’t the same as US cities. There are huge layout/logistical issues, which is also a reason why we don’t have good mass transit in much of the US.

[Peterkin]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

Citation? I’ve found sources that peg the number at ~30 million (2021), but they say cars.

That includes taxis, shuttles and delivery vehicles, as well as the personal transportation ones that are still required to have a human driver.It's difficult to get specific numbers, as most of the available articles lump in all uses and levels of autonomy. 

 

1 hour ago, swansont said:

so I wonder where are these millions of cars?

Most of those are still operating under test conditions, either on the manufacturers' own course or participating in monitored pilot programs; they are still mainly owned by the makers, not individual licensees. This includes commercial vehicles, though many of those are already owned by . 

As for the Chinese ones, so far they're mainly taxis, with limited availability.

Quote

BloombergNEF's 2022 Electric Vehicle Outlook said China will operate the world's largest robotaxi fleet with some 12 million autonomous vehicles by 2040, followed by the US, with about 7 million such vehicles. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202306/29/WS649cbee9a310bf8a75d6c2c9.html

 

1 hour ago, swansont said:

I’ve raised concerns about driverless cars. Responses citing trains and buses does not address the issues, and is a tacit admission that these problems are not currently close to being solved. 

I didn't realize this was football. The technology, and the various governments', enterprises' and citizens' response to it are evolving. I didn't claim that any issues had been resolved or are soon to be resolved - in fact, I raised a couple of problems pending. I merely suggested some ways in which the problems can be avoided or minimized in the future, assuming a co-ordinated long term plan. 

1 hour ago, swansont said:

And European cities aren’t the same as US cities.

No, they're not. They were all built in the middle ages or before, designed for defence, rather than efficient rapid movement of private motorized transports, as much of the US road system was. Another difference is how much municipalities are willing and able to spend on public facilities and how much power they have to enact changes. 

[npts2020]

8 hours ago, swansont said:

So you need to have a roadway system with no pedestrians - not even after the passengers leave the car. A city with no inhabitants. Plus no construction, or downed trees, or any other random obstacle. The navigation has to rely on the centralized automation rather than visual cues. 

It can only work if all the cars are automated, and you have to drive everywhere.

 

That is one of the silliest and least imaginative things I have ever seen you write on this forum. How do they have high speed rail or subways without pedestrians, even after they leave the trains? Do they have to take trains everywhere where such things are available? Same with the other things you mention and bad weather, most of which would be eliminated if the system is enclosed (or at least mostly so). The bold part I completely agree with, however.

Edited August 13, 2023 by npts2020
clarification

[swansont]

7 minutes ago, npts2020 said:

That is one of the silliest and least imaginative things I have ever seen you write on this forum. How do they have high speed rail or subways without pedestrians, even after they leave the trains? Do they have to take trains everywhere where such things are available? Same with the other things you mention and bad weather, most of which would be eliminated if the system is enclosed. The bold part I completely agree with, however

I will reiterate that rail and subways have significant differences from roadways. It seems obvious to me. Do I need to explain these differences?

[npts2020]

8 minutes ago, swansont said:

I will reiterate that rail and subways are significant differences from roadways. It seems obvious to me. Do I need to explain these differences?

No. Simply explain to me why roadways, being centuries old technology, can't be updated to be more like rail and subways. The USDOT in the 1970's thought it was a good idea to automate the highways and should be done ASAP but the computing power for control technology didn't exist at the time. We have had the required tech for at least a couple of decades, now.

Edited August 13, 2023 by npts2020
spelling

[Peterkin]

People are working on this.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022437522001268

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022437522001268

The road surface can be divided for different uses, with barriers between vehicular, bicycle and pedestrian lanes. Just as commuter trains are now separated from roads. Private vehicles - autonomous and human-driven - can be restricted to roadways to which pedestrians have no access. If a tree falls on the rails, trains can be warned (though it's unlikely, as the verges of the rail lines are usually kept clear) in a timely fashion. If there is construction, signs are usually posted and car traffic directed around or through it - autonomous vehicles would be no exception.   

Quote

Google's self-driving car project, called Waymo, uses a mix of sensors, lidar (light detection and ranging -- a technology similar to RADAR) and cameras and combines all of the data those systems generate to identify everything around the vehicle and predict what those objects might do next. This happens in fractions of a second.https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/definition/driverless-car

At this time, those 30 million cars are either not yet on th open road, or not really autonomous

Quote

While the future of autonomous vehicles is promising and exciting, mainstream production in the U.S. is still a few years away from anything higher than Level 2. Not because of technological capability, but because of security—or the lack thereof.https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.html

Some gaps still need to be filled and some bugs combed out. 

[swansont]

8 hours ago, npts2020 said:

No. Simply explain to me why roadways, being centuries old technology, can't be updated to be more like rail and subways. The USDOT in the 1970's thought it was a good idea to automate the highways and should be done ASAP but the computing power for control technology didn't exist at the time. We have had the required tech for at least a couple of decades, now.

It’s not just the roads. You have to update all the cities, too.  Rail and subway trains don’t make 90 degree turns with pedestrians potentially blocking the way. And cars are not connected and hit each other. You don’t have trains where only one car stops to discharge passengers or unload cargo. Or have the cars go at different speeds. They don’t pass each other. One train car doesn’t stop short.

Some of these issues are mitigated if all of the cars are automated, but how do you get to that point? Do you mandate that everybody get one? Is the government going to buy all of the conventional vehicles that would be worth far less under such a mandate? What of the people who can’t afford a new, rather expensive car?

[mistermack]

I remember about a year ago, a tv news piece on an experimental taxi service in the UK, where the cars are linked to a control room, where there are drivers that can take over control of the cars. If a car encounters an issue that stops it, the human driver takes over, they had two or three screens, brake, wheel etc, and could drive the car till it was past the problem. 

I'm not sure if this is the one I remember, but it's on similar principles :  Milton Keynes to hold large-scale driverless car trial - BBC News  

[npts2020]

5 hours ago, swansont said:

It’s not just the roads. You have to update all the cities, too.  Rail and subway trains don’t make 90 degree turns with pedestrians potentially blocking the way. And cars are not connected and hit each other. You don’t have trains where only one car stops to discharge passengers or unload cargo. Or have the cars go at different speeds. They don’t pass each other. One train car doesn’t stop short.

Some of these issues are mitigated if all of the cars are automated, but how do you get to that point? Do you mandate that everybody get one? Is the government going to buy all of the conventional vehicles that would be worth far less under such a mandate? What of the people who can’t afford a new, rather expensive car?

I agree, but none of this explains why it can't be done. It is simply why it won't happen in the US first.

[studiot]

I wonder what happens when one of these automated vehicles simply runs out of fuel ?

 

If the AA or RAC are to be believed this is not an uncommon occurrence on UK roads with human drivers.

Edited August 13, 2023 by studiot

[npts2020]

37 minutes ago, studiot said:

I wonder what happens when one of these automated vehicles simply runs out of fuel ?

 

If the AA or RAC are to be believed this is not an uncommon occurrence on UK roads with human drivers.

Seems like AI could "know" whether fuel/recharging is necessary before arriving at the desired destination and take appropriate steps. Why wouldn't this be preprogrammed?

[studiot]

22 minutes ago, npts2020 said:

Seems like AI could "know" whether fuel/recharging is necessary before arriving at the desired destination and take appropriate steps. Why wouldn't this be preprogrammed?

Go on then give details please?

It's easy to say, not so easy to implement.

[swansont]

1 hour ago, studiot said:

I wonder what happens when one of these automated vehicles simply runs out of fuel ?

 

If the AA or RAC are to be believed this is not an uncommon occurrence on UK roads with human drivers.

This seems like a simple check for an algorithm, diverting to a fueling site when the level gets low, and not getting on a section of road if there isn’t enough fuel to get to the next site. And also being able to immediately dispatch a refueling vehicle when it happens. 

[mistermack]

One thing that might help with navigation on the final km of the trip is if you have a facility to drive a certain trip manually, recording it as you go, and then feed that into the computer, as the template, next time you do the trip driverless. So the car computer has the basics and doesn't need to do so much calculating. 

Something I read the other day also makes the point that if your car can be summoned, then it doesn't need to be parked on the road, it can go to a nearby car park, and come when called. This could eventually mean that no cars are parked on the roads, making driving much easier for people and machines. 

[Peterkin]

46 minutes ago, npts2020 said:

Seems like AI could "know" whether fuel/recharging is necessary before arriving at the desired destination and take appropriate steps. Why wouldn't this be preprogrammed?

That's not difficult. My outmoded cellphone indicates the level of battery charge and signals when it needs to be plugged in. As all autonomous cars will eventually be electric, they already "know" when a charge is/will be required. They also have GPS and there is no magic to an app showing where the charging stations are. Automatic debit or credit payments are also common. Pretty soon, too, the charging stations will be robotic, so the passenger need not even insert the plug.

 

2 minutes ago, mistermack said:

it doesn't need to be parked on the road, it can go to a nearby car park, and come when called.

https://www.roboticparking.com/

42 minutes ago, mistermack said:

One thing that might help with navigation on the final km of the trip is if you have a facility to drive a certain trip manually, recording it as you go, and then feed that into the computer, as the template, next time you do the trip driverless.

In fact, you can do that a hundred times, since the fully driverless incarnations are not yet allowed on public roads without a human pilot. You can already choose a number of destinations for your GPS; no reason your car can't remember your usual commute, shopping and family outings. For tour-buses, it's a piece of cake. What you can't anticipate are routes and destinations for robotaxis and delivery vehicles.  

[iNow]

2 hours ago, Peterkin said:

fully driverless incarnations are not yet allowed on public roads without a human pilot.

Of course they are, in MANY locations  

 

[studiot]

3 hours ago, swansont said:

This seems like a simple check for an algorithm, diverting to a fueling site when the level gets low, and not getting on a section of road if there isn’t enough fuel to get to the next site. And also being able to immediately dispatch a refueling vehicle when it happens. 

Yes seems like, and many dismiss the question without adequate consideration but would you want your emergency ambulance to be

 

3 hours ago, swansont said:

diverting to a fueling site when the level gets low,

You could of course ask if the journey shoul be undertaken at all if there is 'not enough fuel'.

But how do you know what is enough fuel ?

Electric cars can vary by a reduction in available mileage of 50% worst case in cold weather.

How would your algorithm cope with that.

Equally, how much would be allocated to headlights, cabin heating/cooling and so on ?

And what happens if the motorway is closed for an incident and vehicles are subject to a 50 to 100 mile diversion ?

 

Living near the Severn Bridge it is suprising how many otherwise sensible people set off across the water with insufficient fuel to reach the other side.
The Bridge Authority does not allow ordinary or private breakdown services to operate on the stretch between the junction at each end, charging a very hefty fee for their own service, partly to dicourage people chancing it.

[swansont]

1 hour ago, studiot said:

You could of course ask if the journey shoul be undertaken at all if there is 'not enough fuel'.

But how do you know what is enough fuel ?

Electric cars can vary by a reduction in available mileage of 50% worst case in cold weather.

How would your algorithm cope with that.

Equally, how much would be allocated to headlights, cabin heating/cooling and so on ?

And what happens if the motorway is closed for an incident and vehicles are subject to a 50 to 100 mile diversion ?

 

Living near the Severn Bridge it is suprising how many otherwise sensible people set off across the water with insufficient fuel to reach the other side.
The Bridge Authority does not allow ordinary or private breakdown services to operate on the stretch between the junction at each end, charging a very hefty fee for their own service, partly to dicourage people chancing it.

One might ask how they deal with it with conventional vehicles. They might have a gasoline station on-site, and regularly top off the tank. I imagine there’s a checklist of things that must be in place before going out on a call, and “more than half a tank” could be one of the items. They might even refill after each call.

How often do ambulances run out of fuel?