McCarthy out... what next?

[StringJunky]

I think if Jordan gets the gavel, what's just happened in McCarthy's tenure will be relative sideshow. How do we think the political landscape will change now ?

[TheVat]

Th GOP seems so divided between ordinary conservatives and the freaks in the Trumpian clown car that it could require some Dem votes to get a speaker.  Which could mean someone more centrist.  OTOH, the GOP could continue letting itself be tugged farther to the right - but that would ignore voters who are tired of the attacks on women's rights, labor rights,  and LGBT rights, a fatigue that has spread well past party lines.  So then you'd see quite the turnover in the next election cycle.  I think the GOP has to move towards sanity, or wither and die.  

[StringJunky]

29 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Th GOP seems so divided between ordinary conservatives and the freaks in the Trumpian clown car that it could require some Dem votes to get a speaker.  Which could mean someone more centrist.  OTOH, the GOP could continue letting itself be tugged farther to the right - but that would ignore voters who are tired of the attacks on women's rights, labor rights,  and LGBT rights, a fatigue that has spread well past party lines.  So then you'd see quite the turnover in the next election cycle.  I think the GOP has to move towards sanity, or wither and die.  

It looks like to me they are veering so far right, in total, and this is not even the the election cycle. Picture all these  people  who used hard-right tactics and platitudes to stay in the race.... they aren't going to look very convincing to the whole national electorate walking back to their previously more moderate lines in the '24 election. What should happen then is the GOP will get trounced, Trump will have lost all credibility, then the collective navel-gazing will start. They need to be left humiliating for some time by their own actions, with as little Democratic input as possible, as we have just seen with the deliberate inaction towards  McCarthy. Sometimes, it seems to me, it's better to do nothing.

Edited October 4, 2023 by StringJunky

[Sensei]

When you do nothing, I do everything..

 

15 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Trump will have lost all credibility, then the collective navel-gazing will start.

His constituents don't read the internet.. at least not the one that would report on it..

 

The well-informed, well-educated, well XYZ think they are reaching their audience, while this is not the case....

 

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Sensei

[StringJunky]

10 minutes ago, Sensei said:

When you do nothing, I do everything..

 

His constituents don't read the internet.. at least not the one that would report on it..

 

Yes, many are in their own preferred information bubble. But they are a minority as part of the general electorate. They don't matter really. Trump will be singing to a much smaller group.... if he's not imprisoned or otherwise engaged. Once the GOP collapses sufficiently,  I think the Trumpites will be heading towards history. I think this is a cult because the followers are in impenetrable denial, regardless of their leaders antics and once the leader goes, they dissipate.... or fracture to a new, probably, pathological cause. They'll probably be left with an ideological vacuum; history repeats itself.

[Sensei]

10 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

But they are a minority as part of the general electorate.

How many votes does it take to become president of the United States?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election

"The recount having been ended, Bush won Florida by 537 votes, a margin of 0.009%.  [...]"

 

23 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Yes, many are in their own preferred information bubble. But they are a minority as part of the general electorate. They don't matter really. Trump will be singing to a much smaller group.... if he's not imprisoned or otherwise engaged. Once the GOP collapses sufficiently,  I think the Trumpites will be heading towards history. I think this is a cult because the followers are in impenetrable denial, regardless of their leaders antics and once the leader goes, they dissipate.... or fracture to a new, probably, pathological cause. They'll probably be left with an ideological vacuum; history repeats itself.

...You should learn from the past:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulla

 

[toucana]

3 hours ago, StringJunky said:

I think if Jordan gets the gavel, what's just happened in McCarthy's tenure will be relative sideshow. How do we think the political landscape will change now ?

The decisive votes for a new Speaker will probably come from those GOP members who happen to be incumbents in potential swing districts in the 2024 presidential election.They know full well that they can’t afford to be seen as too closely allied with the rhetoric of performace art lunatics and toxic trolls like Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar. These more prudent GOP members will usually fall in line behind a more presentable candidate - as they did with McCarthy who only lost by 6 votes in the most recent vote  - after 8 Republicans on the far-right voted against him.

The problem facing the GOP now is that Kevin McCarthy was the only senior GOP member capable of commanding anything close to a majority of 218 on the floor of the House, and even he required 15 attempts to get there nine months ago. None of the possible candidates currently being touted seem to be capable of squaring this particular circle. Steve Scalise who is being mentioned as a possible choice has been under treatment for cancer in recent months, and is not in good health (he narrowly survived a shooting attack several years ago as well). Other possible candidates such as Tom Emmer have expressed no interest in running so far.

The looming train-wreck not far down the line is that the House only recently passed a 45 day continuance motion to prevent a government funding shutdown. What happens if there is no Speaker in place when that runs out ?

[iNow]

The Speaker pro tempore, who is now de facto in charge of the House despite not being voted into such an important role only below VP in terms of taking over the presidency in an emergency,  has mandated that Nancy Pelosi’s staff clear ALL of her belongings from the large office from which she’s worked for years… and to do so immediately so this temporary paper tiger can use it for themselves and post selfies on their socials with their shoes up on the desk. 
 

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/04/1203566052/pelosi-office-patrick-mchenry-speaker

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

Yes, many are in their own preferred information bubble.

And also in their own heavily gerrymandered districts. The elected officials act this way because they can and there’s practically zero risk of losing their seats regardless of how heinously they act bc they’ve redrawn the voting maps and gamed the entire system for raw power in place of prudence and good governance. 

36 minutes ago, toucana said:

What happens if there is no Speaker in place when that runs out ?

Perhaps since the GOP majority is so razor thin, a few moderate paleo republicans might get peeled off and support Minority Leader Jeffries from the Democratic side.  

Lol. I know. Snowballs chance in hell, but fun to speculate  

 

[toucana]

17 hours ago, StringJunky said:

I think if Jordan gets the gavel, what's just happened in McCarthy's tenure will be relative sideshow. How do we think the political landscape will change now ?

One of the very last credentials that any GOP member wants to see on the resume of a Republican candidate for the Speaker of the House right now is prior employment as a college wrestling team coach, and allegations of complicity in historical sexual offences against young men during that period.

You don’t need to look very far into recent history to find out why either  -  as Alex Wagner explains in this MSNBC clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYtQ00hi3I0

Dennis Hastert the 51st Speaker from 1999 - 2007 (the longest serving Republican Speaker in history) was convicted in April 2016 of paying hush money related to previous sexual offences against a 14 year old boy in a motel room a decade earlier. He was also accused of sexually abusing 2 other high school wrestlers and a team manager at a time when he was employed as a teacher and coach at Yorkville High School Illinois. Hastert was convicted and sent to jail for 15 months  - the highest ranking elected official in US history to serve a prison sentence (to date).

Dennis Hastert was subsequently erased from the history of the Speakership. He is the one Speaker in living memory whose portrait does not hang on the walls of an exclusive picture gallery in the Capitol.

Edited October 5, 2023 by toucana
typo on 'convicted'

[swansont]

12 minutes ago, toucana said:

One of the very last credentials that any GOP member wants to see on the resume of a Republican candidate for the Speaker of the House right now is prior employment as a college wrestling team coach, and allegations of complicity in historical sexual offences against young men during that period.

The current state of the GOP suggests that involvement in sexual offenses is considered a job requirement.

[TheVat]

Went a little overboard on plus ones.  Good thread, and I thank @iNow for a chuckle, imagining a Dem Jeffries as speaker of a GOP House.  How many nanoseconds would pass, in today's hyperpartisan congress, for a motion to vacate  if Hakeem were voted in?  But yes, it would be cool if paleo Repubs sort of jumped ship.  

[toucana]

 

Some GOP sources are now attempting to float the idea of Donald Trump becoming an interim Speaker of the House.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFeNmtnxntI

The problem with this was pointed out yesterday by Rep. Sean Casten (D.Ill), who reminded his GOP colleagues that the Republican party’s own House Conference Rules for the 118th Congress (adopted in January of this year) state that:

“(a) A member of the Republican Leadership shall step aside if indicted for a felony for which a sentence of two or more years of imprisonment may be imposed” (Rule 26A)

Donald Trump is currently facing 91 felony indictments, many of which carry potential sentences far above 2 years.

Edited October 5, 2023 by toucana
edited out duplicate 'own' and corrected 'indictment'

[J.C.MacSwell]

5 hours ago, toucana said:

 

Some GOP sources are now attempting to float the idea of Donald Trump becoming an interim Speaker of the House.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFeNmtnxntI

The problem with this was pointed out yesterday by Rep. Sean Casten (D.Ill), who reminded his GOP colleagues that the Republican party’s own House Conference Rules for the 118th Congress (adopted in January of this year) state that:

“(a) A member of the Republican Leadership shall step aside if indicted for a felony for which a sentence of two or more years of imprisonment may be imposed” (Rule 26A)

Donald Trump is currently facing 91 felony indictments, many of which carry potential sentences far above 2 years.

Surely they could make one small exception...

[CharonY]

Naah, what is the point of making rules if you yourself have to adhere to them?

[toucana]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:00 PM, StringJunky said:

I think if Jordan gets the gavel, what's just happened in McCarthy's tenure will be relative sideshow. How do we think the political landscape will change now ?

What comes next is Mike Johnson 51 - an obscure back-bench congressman from Louisiana who is a Christian nationalist on the ultra conservative right-wing of the GOP. Mr Johnson is apparently a man of God, which is good, as he’s likely to need all the help he can get.

In a sermon back in 2016, he assured parishioners of the Louisiana Baptist Message that mass-shootings were caused by teaching evolution in schools, and allowing ‘no fault’  divorces to take place. (Johnson himself is in a covenanted marriage with his wife Kelly that eschews any possibility of divorce). He also supports a blanket ban on abortion with no exceptions.

On broader matters, Mike Johnson asserts that climate change is a hoax, and that the Capitol insurrection on Jan 6  in 2021 was a form of  ‘legitimate political protest’. He  voted consistently against accepting the electoral college returns that confirmed President Biden’s  victory in the 2020 presidential election, and also authored an amicus brief filed in the supreme court by Texas to throw out all the swing state results.

Before entering politics, Johnson worked for the Alliance Defending Freedom – designated a hate group by the Southern Law Poverty Center, which tracks US extremists.

According to the SPLC, the ADF has “supported the recriminalisation of sexual acts between consenting LGBTQ+ adults in the US and criminalisation abroad; defended state-sanctioned sterilisation of trans people abroad; contended that LGBTQ+ people are more likely to engage in paedophilia; and claimed that a ‘homosexual agenda’ will destroy Christianity and society”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/25/who-is-mike-johnson-house-speaker-election-denier-climate-anti-abortion#:~:text=In%202016%2C%20as%20he%20ran,%27ve%20been%20under%20assault”.

Edited October 27, 2023 by toucana
corrected typo 'or' to 'on' in para. 2

[J.C.MacSwell]

Kind of makes you think...God save Kamala Harris...with Biden well over the average age of life expectancy...

OTOH it could get worse...Trump could get re-elected. (not that I think it will happen...but I reassured my sons it wouldn't happen in 2016...such was my trust in the American electorate at that time despite Hilary's obvious shortcomings and foot shooting tendencies...)

Comforting to know Biden and Harris will probably outlast his short weeks or months as speaker...for a few seconds...then you remember there is no reasonable replacement that will get the votes to do so...

[CharonY]

13 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

OTOH it could get worse...Trump could get re-elected. (not that I think it will happen...but I reassured my sons it wouldn't happen in 2016...such was my trust in the American electorate at that time despite Hilary's obvious shortcomings and foot shooting tendencies...)

It is still a bit early, but general polls show that they are unfortunately very close (with Trump leading in some). Considering all that has happened, it is rather disheartening.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, CharonY said:

It is still a bit early, but general polls show that they are unfortunately very close (with Trump leading in some). Considering all that has happened, it is rather disheartening.

National polls don’t vote in presidential elections. Individuals within individual states do. It’ll likely come down to ~500 people in Wisconsin (or some similar scale event to happened in Florida when GWB got elected by the SCOTUS). 

Microtargeting is have macro effects. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by iNow

[CharonY]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

National polls don’t vote in presidential elections. Individuals within individual states do. It’ll likely come down to ~500 people in Wisconsin (or some similar scale event to happened in Florida when GWB got elected by the SCOTUS). 

Microtargeting is have macro effects. 

I mean sure, there is also that, because who needs representation when you can have a convoluted system that based on 200 yr old considerations. But as a whole not only the mechanism is silly, but also the fact that folks have a choice between someone old and unexciting and someone old and on multiple criminal indictments. 

[Endy0816]

7 hours ago, CharonY said:

I mean sure, there is also that, because who needs representation when you can have a convoluted system that based on 200 yr old considerations. But as a whole not only the mechanism is silly, but also the fact that folks have a choice between someone old and unexciting and someone old and on multiple criminal indictments. 

There's other parties and candidates. Typical FPTP result though 😐

We've tried to reform the EC periodically, but many of the same concerns behind the original compromise persist. Were it different, could win the Presidency by only focusing on the concerns of 9-10 States.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Endy0816

[iNow]

11 hours ago, CharonY said:

I mean sure, there is also that, because who needs representation when you can have a convoluted system that based on 200 yr old considerations. But as a whole not only the mechanism is silly, but also the fact that folks have a choice between someone old and unexciting and someone old and on multiple criminal indictments. 

We appear to be in violent agreement.

[StringJunky]

13 hours ago, CharonY said:

I mean sure, there is also that, because who needs representation when you can have a convoluted system that based on 200 yr old considerations. But as a whole not only the mechanism is silly, but also the fact that folks have a choice between someone old and unexciting and someone old and on multiple criminal indictments. 

Looking at the age thing: there needs to be a maximum age for prospective politicians. I find it quite sad that people, including Biden, are surgically altering their apparent age and being allowed to whither ( e.g.  D. Feinsten) until they are mentally and physically incompetent.

[CharonY]

15 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Looking at the age thing: there needs to be a maximum age for prospective politicians. I find it quite sad that people, including Biden, are surgically altering their apparent age and being allowed to whither ( e.g.  D. Feinsten) until they are mentally and physically incompetent.

It might not be a bad thing. Was there a report that folks were using plastic surgery (not that I think that matters). 

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, CharonY said:

It might not be a bad thing. Was there a report that folks were using plastic surgery (not that I think that matters). 

It possibly is when one is in denial and carries on regardless.

[CharonY]

17 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

It possibly is when one is in denial and carries on regardless.

Sorry, my sentence was ambiguous. I meant to say that a maximum age (or term limit) might not be a bad thing.