Times/Siena Poll Trump vs Biden

[iNow]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

If it's that many, I can't see the antis prevailing over the long-term.

Indeed, but it only matters if they show up.

In a nearby school board election day before yesterday, 2 of the candidates won by only 12 votes. The margins are razor thin, and the districts as drawn aren't very forgiving for apathy and failure to have oneself be counted. 

I'll note this is itself a fairly key strategy among the GOP right now as they don't necessarily need to beat Biden if they can instead simply convince enough folks who voted for him in 2020 to just not show up next year.

This is where Dem strategists are hoping that actively putting abortion on to MORE ballots (like was done in Ohio this week) will be the wedge needed to get more people up off their couches and into voting booths. 

[toucana]

On 11/8/2023 at 12:54 PM, iNow said:

Yes, and trump has already spoken against the GOP on that issue, hence my point stands. Despite a strong Democratic showing in state and school board level races, he’s still up in swing states and tied with Biden nationally. 

Claims that Donald Trump "has already spoken out against the GOP on this issue" are likely to fare particularly badly in 2024 when videos of him saying the exact opposite start appearing in political ads. Have a look at the videos of Trump in this clip from the Alex Wagner slot on MSNBC slot last night  -  (from 3.35m elapsed onwards). Those attack adverts have already been cut, and will be on endless loop next year.

 

[iNow]

12 minutes ago, toucana said:

Claims that Donald Trump "has already spoken out against the GOP on this issue" are likely to fare particularly badly in 2024 when videos of him saying the exact opposite start appearing in political ads.

His comments will hurt him with the GOP base during the primaries, but not enough to make him lose. His comments will help him during the general election, potentially enough to avoid loss. 

[toucana]

5 hours ago, iNow said:

His comments will hurt him with the GOP base during the primaries, but not enough to make him lose. His comments will help him during the general election, potentially enough to avoid loss. 

I fail to understand how. An interesting article in the Courier Journal about Daniel Cameron, the defeated GOP candidate in the Kentucky gubernatorial election who was heavily endorsed by Trump makes exactly the opposite point:

“Once again Republicans learned the truth about Trump—he’s great in a primary but isn’t nearly as good in a general election, even in a red state like Kentucky. There’s no doubt that Trump’s endorsement of Cameron in the GOP primary sunk his deep-pocketed rival—Kelly Craft—and helped Cameron surge to the nomination.

And in October, after falling far behind, Cameron used Trump’s endorsement again to nationalize the race and reel in Beshear, who had built up a large lead. But for as unpopular as President Joe Biden is in Kentucky (and believe me, it’s bad) Trump has his detractors, too. There are moderate, college-educated Republicans and independents in key counties in the Louisville, Lexington, and Cincinnati metro areas for whom Trump is a deal breaker"

https://eu.courier-journal.com/story/opinion/2023/11/08/beshear-won-trump-no-help-cameron/71500605007/#

[iNow]

46 minutes ago, toucana said:

I fail to understand how

By appealing to more moderates and independents in the general election, those who tend to lack the extreme abortion stances seen so consistently in GOP primaries. 

On another note, most of this is moot if Joe Manchin (who announced today he’d tip the senate toward GOP control and won’t be running next year in deep red West Virginia) decides after his tour for “speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle” to run on a No Labels ticket and siphon away Biden voters (who are more likely to flow to him than Trump voters). 

Edited November 9, 2023 by iNow

[StringJunky]

A year is a century in politics and 2024 is too far away to call.. Too much can happen, especially at this juncture in human history. I'm much less optimistic for the Dems, since Biden hugged up with Netanyahu.

[DimaMazin]

On 11/10/2023 at 3:51 AM, StringJunky said:

A year is a century in politics and 2024 is too far away to call.. Too much can happen, especially at this juncture in human history. I'm much less optimistic for the Dems, since Biden hugged up with Netanyahu.

Rether Biden needs to destroy Iranian nuclear program.

[PeterBushMan]

BRICS will break the USA into three pieces.

 

 

Edited February 23 by PeterBushMan

[Endy0816]

2 hours ago, PeterBushMan said:

BRICS will break the USA into three pieces.

It's concerned with dedollarization. Some of the countries involved emphasize currency controls or have issues with each other, so not sure how it'll work out in the long run.

Honestly, wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have an opposition. States tend to only unite if they think it necessary to counter a perceived threat.

Edited February 23 by Endy0816