Asteroid defense ideas

[zapatos]

26 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

To tell the honest truth IMHO, whatever we do, our only real hope is to plan ahead, this discussion should be taking place way before now and action should already be in place. I know others have discussed this but here we are with nothing to protect us... action is needed. 

The impact this discussion will have on the possibility of an impact is just about zero. 

Fortunately the people who can have an impact have been in discussions and taking action for years. 

[Moontanman]

Just now, zapatos said:

The impact this discussion will have on the possibility of an impact is just about zero. 

Fortunately the people who can have an impact have been in discussions and taking action for years. 

I know... and here we are. 

[zapatos]

33 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

To tell the honest truth IMHO, whatever we do, our only real hope is to plan ahead, this discussion should be taking place way before now and action should already be in place. I know others have discussed this but here we are with nothing to protect us... action is needed. 

The impact this discussion will have on the possibility of an impact is just about zero. 

Fortunately the people who can have an impact have been in discussions and taking action for years. 

We've been searching for and tracking Near Earth and other objects since 1947. Projects are funded and tests are being conducted around the world. We successfully impacted an object in 2022. Strategies have been developed, simulations have been run, and various countries are coordinating efforts.

While we'd need at least a year's warning to intercept a threat at this time, the risk of anything significant happening in the near term is also very small.

Edit: No idea what is going on with the editor.

5 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

I know... and here we are. 

Exactly. We're fine.

Edited May 29 by zapatos

[Moontanman]

6 minutes ago, zapatos said:

The impact this discussion will have on the possibility of an impact is just about zero. 

Fortunately the people who can have an impact have been in discussions and taking action for years. 

We've been searching for and tracking Near Earth and other objects since 1947. Projects are funded and tests are being conducted around the world. We successfully impacted an object in 2022. Strategies have been developed, simulations have been run, and various countries are coordinating efforts.

While we'd need at least a year's warning to intercept a threat at this time, the risk of anything significant happening in the near term is also very small.

Edit: No idea what is going on with the editor.

Exactly. We're fine.

As long as we don't get a large asteroid approaching from the direction of the sun... 

We are fine only because it hasn't happened... yet

[Mordred]

My wife has a relative that worked on NEOSSAT

https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/satellites/neossat/

This is a satellite dedicated to hunting asteroids developed in Canada though the project had numerous problems including overbudget at least it's a step in the right direction.

One thing remember there is far more going on than one may realize or that you will find articles and links on. 

At there are ongoing studies and projects.

Edited May 29 by Mordred

[zapatos]

9 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

As long as we don't get a large asteroid approaching from the direction of the sun... 

 

Is that a particularly difficult path for us?

9 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

We are fine only because it hasn't happened... yet

As with every other threat in life.

[Moontanman]

1 minute ago, zapatos said:

Is that a particularly difficult path for us?

As with every other threat in life.

Good point but isn't every other existential threat the same> Shouldn't we prepare for this one?

[zapatos]

42 minutes ago, Moontanman said:

Good point but isn't every other existential threat the same> Shouldn't we prepare for this one?

I don't know why you think we aren't preparing. We've been talking about actions that are being undertaken for a while now, including on this page.

[Airbrush]

3 hours ago, Mordred said:

My wife has a relative that worked on NEOSSAT

https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/satellites/neossat/

This is a satellite dedicated to hunting asteroids developed in Canada though the project had numerous problems including overbudget at least it's a step in the right direction.

One thing remember there is far more going on than one may realize or that you will find articles and links on. 

At there are ongoing studies and projects.

When do you think we may hear in the news that a group of scientists and engineers are working on ways of diverting asteroids of various sizes, compositions, and times to impact, using supercomputers?  And maybe they have a secret budget of a billion dollars, right?  And they will reassure us in the near future that they have ideas for all sorts of ways to divert them in the near future, right?

Apophis is 1,200 feet wide and is passing by earth in 2029.  Does anyone know of any missions to this?  Maybe an opportunity to slap it with a kinetic impactor to see the effects.

The most efficient diversion method is one that will work on ALL compositions of asteroids, and it works on a range of sizes.

When asteroid Apophis makes its close approach to Earth on April 13, 2029, it will be traveling at a speed of 18 miles per second relative to Earth.

99942 Apophis - Wikipedia

Edited May 29 by Airbrush

[Mordred]

11 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

When do you think we may hear in the news that a group of scientists and engineers are working on ways of diverting asteroids of various sizes, compositions, and times to impact, using supercomputers?  And maybe they have a secret budget of a billion dollars, right?  And they will reassure us in the near future that they have ideas for all sorts of ways to divert them in the near future, right?

 

  The point being is there is budgets in place for research that doesn't make the news. Simply because we don't see the newsworthy materials doesn't mean budgets, policies, research fundings etc are not going on. Obviously developing a feasible and a reliable infrastructure for massive object deflection is a rather complex undertaking full of hurdles.

 

[zapatos]

14 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

When do you think we may hear in the news that a group of scientists and engineers are working on ways of diverting asteroids of various sizes, compositions, and times to impact, using supercomputers? 

It was in one of the links I provided and I mentioned it again on this page.

16 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

And maybe they have a secret budget of a billion dollars, right?  And they will reassure us in the near future that they have ideas for all sorts of ways to divert them in the near future, right?

What is the purpose of your snarky attitude?

[Mordred]

15 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

 

The most efficient diversion method is one that will work on ALL compositions of asteroids, and it works on a range of sizes.

 

 Ideally yes but as we saw in this discussion no single idea works in every situation.

[zapatos]

21 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

The most efficient diversion method is one that will work on ALL compositions of asteroids, and it works on a range of sizes.

 

Not likely. Is it most efficient to have one type of vehicle for ALL uses? Or one type of weapon for ALL military situations? Or one type of restaurant for ALL people wanting to go out to eat?

[dimreepr]

21 hours ago, Airbrush said:

Discussion about saving the world from destruction may be emotional.

Who said the world needs saving?

[Airbrush]

On 5/28/2024 at 8:56 PM, zapatos said:

Not likely. Is it most efficient to have one type of vehicle for ALL uses? Or one type of weapon for ALL military situations? Or one type of restaurant for ALL people wanting to go out to eat?

I haven't heard a reason why a nuclear explosion near an asteroid would not work on ANY composition of asteroid, and a RANGE of sizes, but maybe not the largest ones.  Do you know any reasons it would not?

On 5/29/2024 at 6:23 AM, dimreepr said:

Who said the world needs saving?

If you learned that an asteroid that will destroy a city, or a country, or life as we know it, would you not care?

On 5/28/2024 at 8:51 PM, Mordred said:

 Ideally yes but as we saw in this discussion no single idea works in every situation.

What composition of asteroid would a nuclear explosion not give a push?  Also, loose rubble piles may be fused by the heat pulse, and thus keep it together while it gets pushed!  I don't know if it will, but why not?

On 5/28/2024 at 8:50 PM, zapatos said:

It was in one of the links I provided and I mentioned it again on this page.

What is the purpose of your snarky attitude?

You don't believe in secret, or black projects?

On 5/28/2024 at 8:50 PM, zapatos said:

It was in one of the links I provided and I mentioned it again on this page.

What is the purpose of your snarky attitude?

I don't understand how what I posted about black budgets is "snarky."  Can anyone explain?

[zapatos]

13 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

You don't believe in secret, or black projects?

Sure, I believe there are secret projects. Who doesn't? What has that got to do with these projects that are out in the open? Are you suggesting that there are even more projects that we don't know about? Wouldn't that be a good thing?

22 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

Do you know any reasons it would not?

It is questionable if the asteroid is a certain size rubble pile, both because the rubble pile may coalesce due to gravity or may rain down radioactive material over a large area.

Also making it potentially inefficient are the impact of politics and the consideration of risk during or after launch. Using nuclear weapons when you don't have to may not be acceptable to many people and governments.

 

[swansont]

On 5/28/2024 at 8:19 PM, Moontanman said:

As long as we don't get a large asteroid approaching from the direction of the sun... 

We are fine only because it hasn't happened... yet

It can only hide behind the sun for a few months at most.

[Airbrush]

36 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Sure, I believe there are secret projects. Who doesn't? What has that got to do with these projects that are out in the open? Are you suggesting that there are even more projects that we don't know about? Wouldn't that be a good thing?

It is questionable if the asteroid is a certain size rubble pile, both because the rubble pile may coalesce due to gravity or may rain down radioactive material over a large area.

Also making it potentially inefficient are the impact of politics and the consideration of risk during or after launch. Using nuclear weapons when you don't have to may not be acceptable to many people and governments.

 

That would be a good thing!  It is not in the news that much is being done to develop a way to divert asteroids.  Do you know of any such projects?  Tell us about it!  I think it would be a good thing to develop deflection methods, using whatever money is available, public or secret.

"Coalesce due to gravity" would be a good thing.  "Rain down radioactive material" wouldn't happen if done far away from earth.

The "impact of politics" would need to be addressed.  IF nukes are a good way to divert a wide range of composition and sizes of asteroids, then it would have to be made public and discussed.  IF scientists could convince the world that the way to save earth would be by using nukes, then that method should be promoted and explained to the world.

[Mordred]

1 hour ago, Airbrush said:

 

What composition of asteroid would a nuclear explosion not give a push?  Also, loose rubble piles may be fused by the heat pulse, and thus keep it together while it gets pushed!  I don't know if it will, but why not?

You don't get the kinetic energy from a nuke like you do in the atmosphere. What you will get is the radiation components but not the sudden shock waves from instantaneous heating in atmospheric explosions.

So composition matters more in how the surface dissipates the heat generated from the radiation. It is this heat dissipation (outgassing) that supplies the push not the kinetic explosion as you don't have an atmosphere. The above applies to surface or above explosions.

Obviously this differs if you explode the nuke internally via mining etc.

Edited May 30 by Mordred

[zapatos]

 

Quote

Do you know of any such projects?  Tell us about it! 

On 5/26/2024 at 9:04 PM, zapatos said:

Just something I found on Wikipedia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_impact_avoidance#:~:text=An object with a high,a spacecraft with the asteroid.

 

On 5/28/2024 at 7:10 PM, zapatos said:

The impact this discussion will have on the possibility of an impact is just about zero. 

Fortunately the people who can have an impact have been in discussions and taking action for years. 

We've been searching for and tracking Near Earth and other objects since 1947. Projects are funded and tests are being conducted around the world. We successfully impacted an object in 2022. Strategies have been developed, simulations have been run, and various countries are coordinating efforts.

While we'd need at least a year's warning to intercept a threat at this time, the risk of anything significant happening in the near term is also very small.

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

"Coalesce due to gravity" would be a good thing.

Coalesce due to gravity is a bad thing if the thing you just blew up coalesces into a single object prior to impact with earth.

Edited May 30 by zapatos

[Moontanman]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

It can only hide behind the sun for a few months at most.

https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/the-sun-is-blinding-us-to-thousands-of-potentially-lethal-asteroids-can-scientists-spot-them-before-its-too-late

Quote

At any moment, the sun hides countless asteroids from view. This includes a constantly rotating cast of Apollo asteroids — near-Earth objects that spend most of their time far beyond the orbit of Earth but occasionally cross our planet's path to swoop closer to the sun — as well as the mysterious class of asteroids called the Atens, which orbit almost entirely interior to Earth, ever on the planet's dayside.

"Aten asteroids are the most dangerous, because they cross Earth's orbit just barely at their most distant point," Scott Sheppard, a staff scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science, told Live Science. "You would never see one coming, to some degree, because they're never in the darkness of the night sky."

As with all asteroids, the majority of these hidden space rocks are likely small enough to burn up completely in Earth's atmosphere upon contact. But it's estimated that there are also many undiscovered asteroids measuring more than 460 feet (140 m) in diameter — large enough to survive the plunge through the atmosphere and cause catastrophic local damage upon impact, Mainzer said. Asteroids with this destructive potential are sometimes dubbed "city killers."

"We think we've found roughly 40% of those asteroids in the 140-meter neighborhood," Mainzer said. According to NASA estimates, that leaves about 14,000 left to be found.

 

[Airbrush]

1 hour ago, zapatos said:

Coalesce due to gravity is a bad thing if the thing you just blew up coalesces into a single object prior to impact with earth.

It doesn't get blown up.  There is only an intense, very short, pulse of HEAT, no shock wave in space, that should melt any rocks or ice and they would immediately freeze again but fused together, and it gets a push from outgassing.

[zapatos]

24 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

It doesn't get blown up.  There is only an intense, very short, pulse of HEAT, no shock wave in space, that should melt any rocks or ice and they would immediately freeze again but fused together, and it gets a push from outgassing.

Yeah, bad use of terms. I should have said the pieces would be dispersed.

Do you have a reference for the melting and refreezing causing the mass to be fused together? My understanding was that the radiation only penetrated the exposed surface of the sides facing the radiation.

[Airbrush]

4 hours ago, zapatos said:

Yeah, bad use of terms. I should have said the pieces would be dispersed.

Do you have a reference for the melting and refreezing causing the mass to be fused together? My understanding was that the radiation only penetrated the exposed surface of the sides facing the radiation.

Yes, that's how it works.  There are no shock waves in the vacuum of space.  I have no reference; it just makes sense.  You disagree?

If you explode the nuke close enough it will melt the area facing the blast, cause outgassing (and a push), and quickly solidify because space is cold.  If you explode a number of nukes close enough, each one will melt, fuse, and freeze rock, metal, and ice.  You just keep exploding the nukes on the same side so you can push it in the same direction.  Why not?

Edited May 31 by Airbrush

[zapatos]

18 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

Yes, that's how it works.  There are no shock waves in the vacuum of space.  I have no reference; it just makes sense. 

I have difficulty dealing with confident declarations about complex physics ("Yes, that's how it works.") based on "it just makes sense."