Helicopter Carrying President of Iran Lost - Accident or Assassination ?

[toucana]

A helicopter carrying Ebrahim Raisi the President of Iran has gone missing in a remote region of NW Iran close to the border with Azerbaijan. Foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian is also said to have been onboard the same craft which was part of a convoy of three helicopters that were returning from a visit to mark the inauguration of a new dam in neighbouring Azerbaijan.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/19/iran-helicopter-accident-live-president-fm-on-missing-aircraft

Various reports from Iranian news agencies say that the helicopter made a “hard landing” somwhere near the Iranian border town of Jolfa. Iranian rescue teams are struggling to reach the location because of the rugged terrain and heavy fog, with Iranian TV showing visibility down to 5m in places. Two other helicopters in the same convoy made a safe return, and some Iranian sources indicate that an emergency phone call was received from some of the people onboard the missing helicopter. Other sources say that Iranian TV is currently screening recitations of verses from the Quran, and that the VP has already formed an emergency government.

The helicopters used to transport the Iranian president are ageing Russian made Mil Mi-17 military transports which date back to 1975. They have been involved in a number of incidents and crashes in recent years.

Edited May 19 by toucana
Corrected Raisi line 1

[swansont]

!

Moderator Note

Speculation about accident or assassination is premature. Let’s stick to facts as they are revealed.

 

[MSC]

Facts on the ground.

It seems that Russia is lending 50 professional mountaineers to aid in the search but also investigate the cause of the crash.

Based on the fact that the weather has worsened to 5 meter visibility it is safe to assume the weather was already bad enough to cause an accidental helicopter crash of an old Russian helicopter. 

No doubt Russias motivations are fueled by speculative paranoia over western involvement and their need to blame everything on the west as an assault on them. Probing for pretext.

[zapatos]

Many countries have used assassination to eliminate threats and enemies. I would not be surprised to find that this was the result of either an accident or an assassination. If it is proven to be an assassination I'm afraid more bloodshed will follow.

[MSC]

5 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Many countries have used assassination to eliminate threats and enemies. I would not be surprised to find that this was the result of either an accident or an assassination. If it is proven to be an assassination I'm afraid more bloodshed will follow.

The scary thing in this day and age is it doesn't have to be an assassination for enough people to believe it is and still arrive at more bloodshed. 

[MigL]

Not much chance of an assassination.
A mountainous area where fog can spring up very quickly, and flying in a Bell 212 helicopter, which is, at best, 1970s vintage, is a recipe for disaster.

How it gets spun by the religious leaders to their people, is a different story.

[zapatos]

17 minutes ago, MigL said:

Not much chance of an assassination.

Because Israel would not do so, or because it is just more likely an accident?

[MigL]

2 minutes ago, zapatos said:

or because it is just more likely an accident

I would not fly in an American helicopter for which Iran hasn't been able to get parts since 1980.
Add in the unpredictable fog, and all the Israelis had to do was sit back and watch.

[zapatos]

Quote

"No survivors" were found at the crash site of the helicopter carrying Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, Iranian state news agency IRINN and semi-official news agency Mehr News reported.

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/raisi-iran-president-helicopter-crash/index.html

 

[toucana]

The wreckage was located by a Bayraktar Ankinci UAV drone supplied by the Turkish government. They located a heat spot in the Dizmar forest area, and shared the coordinates with the Iranian search and rescue teams.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-69035051

It appears that one of the passengers Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem survived the crash for about an hour and even spoke briefly by phone to the authorities before succumbing. He was the Prayer Imam of Tabriz who was travelling as a personal envoy of Ayatollah Ali Khameni the Supreme Leader of Iran.

[Bayraktar Ankinci UAV drone image of crash site]

The Dizmar area is also known as  the Hyrcanian Forest (Greek Ὑρκανία) - derived from Old Persian Verkâna meaning “Wolf Land” - not an ideal place to make a crash landing.

[TheVat]

11 hours ago, MigL said:

I would not fly in an American helicopter for which Iran hasn't been able to get parts since 1980.

Over the years I've gotten the impression Iran is quite proud of its technical proficiency.  Persian pride in their history of scientific and engineering mastery goes back a long ways.  Reuters described how Iran has gotten around the sanctions on aviation parts by smuggling in components and reverse-engineering them.  So this will be a national embarasssment as well as tragedy, for Iran.

And as @MSC and others note, there will be politicized takes on what happened by countries who have a dog in the current ME conflict.  

[MSC]

13 hours ago, MigL said:

I would not fly in an American helicopter for which Iran hasn't been able to get parts since 1980.
Add in the unpredictable fog, and all the Israelis had to do was sit back and watch.

I agree that an accident is more likely, that said if Israel or the USA wanted to plan an assassination but wanted a situation where they could cast blame on something else to create plausible deniability, knowing the Iranian president was going to be on a route known for bad weather conditions, add in that the fog could conceal the activity of assassin's, it might have been an opportunity too good to pass up. 

But yeah, I'll assume accident until proven otherwise. 

[StringJunky]

6 hours ago, MSC said:

I agree that an accident is more likely, that said if Israel or the USA wanted to plan an assassination but wanted a situation where they could cast blame on something else to create plausible deniability, knowing the Iranian president was going to be on a route known for bad weather conditions, add in that the fog could conceal the activity of assassin's, it might have been an opportunity too good to pass up. 

But yeah, I'll assume accident until proven otherwise. 

I don't think any sensible strategist would take out any leaders in this stage of potential hostilities. Killing a leader would create too many new geopolitical outcomes. We need hose-pipes, not flamethrowers.

Edited May 20 by StringJunky

[MSC]

30 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

I don't think any sensible strategist would take out any leaders in this stage of potential hostilities. Killing a leader would create too many new geopolitical outcomes. We need hose-pipes, not flamethrowers.

Agreed, if DJT had still been in office I'd have said "No he really may be that stupid" but I definitely don't see Biden ordering something like that, especially not now and for the most part Israel is busy in Palestine and has enough bad PR with that mess as it is.

Do we think there is any chance of internal assassination orchestration within Iran itself? I don't know enough about their internal politics to guage either way.

[TheVat]

1 hour ago, MSC said:

 

Do we think there is any chance of internal assassination orchestration within Iran itself? I don't know enough about their internal politics to guage either way.

Well, being a mass murderer (google Raisi extrajudicial killings 1988) 

is not always an endearing quality in a head of state.  I would imagine there are many in Iran who aren't real fond of him.  I admit I didn't shed any tears, on hearing the news.  

 

[MSC]

1 hour ago, TheVat said:

Well, being a mass murderer (google Raisi extrajudicial killings 1988) 

is not always an endearing quality in a head of state.  I would imagine there are many in Iran who aren't real fond of him.  I admit I didn't shed any tears, on hearing the news.  

 

Just googled. My god... Yeah no tears shed here but it looks like you could throw a stone in Iran and hit someone with motive to assassinate him. If that is the case, I hope they never find them. 

[toucana]

10 hours ago, TheVat said:

Well, being a mass murderer (google Raisi extrajudicial killings 1988) 

is not always an endearing quality in a head of state.  I would imagine there are many in Iran who aren't real fond of him.  I admit I didn't shed any tears, on hearing the news.  

 

The Iranian security police were kept busy in Tehran on Sunday night trying to shut down firework parties thrown by opponents of President Raisi celebrating his disappearance  - (lots of video clips on Twitter).

One unsettling detail reported by Iranian sources was a claim by deputy foreign minister Mahdi Safari who said "Shortly after the accident, we managed to speak with Tabriz’s Friday Prayer Imam and he said that he was feeling bad and heard the sounds of ambulance cars"

https://tass.com/emergencies/1790437

There weren’t any ambulances anywhere near the crash site at that point - there were however plenty of wolves..

[joigus]

On 5/20/2024 at 4:40 AM, MigL said:

Not much chance of an assassination.
A mountainous area where fog can spring up very quickly, and flying in a Bell 212 helicopter, which is, at best, 1970s vintage, is a recipe for disaster.

How it gets spun by the religious leaders to their people, is a different story.

Agreed. A couple of disgruntled shepherds throwings stones could have startled the pilot just enough to do it. And discontent there is in Iran, as pointed out. But no need for a plot here, and most likely an accident. That doesn't mean the Israelies haven't uncorked a bottle or two.

12 hours ago, StringJunky said:

I don't think any sensible strategist would take out any leaders in this stage of potential hostilities. Killing a leader would create too many new geopolitical outcomes. We need hose-pipes, not flamethrowers.

Agreed. I'm sure the next in line is not going to make much of a difference, turban-wearing or not. I'm pessimistic about your last wish though, however much I agree. Any hose-pipes I envision are political. And most problems in the Middle East are cultural and deeply rooted in people's minds, not political.