The Achilles heel of modern authoritarian regimes

[MSC]

On 6/20/2024 at 9:07 AM, Linkey said:

I live in Russia (please note that I support Ukraine). I believe that the political scientists now do not fully understand how authoritarian and totalitarian regimes function, and what is their weakness. These regimes all declare that they are “people’s”, that dictators express the “will of the nation” and so on. These dictators, with the help of propaganda and the repressive machine, do often indeed shape the opinion of the majority of the population in their countries; but they never admit it.
I want propose the easiest way for Western countries to defeat Putin and Xi. First, the United States must reconsider its nuclear doctrine, and declare that the use of US nuclear weapons is possible only in the form of a symmetrical response. If Putin nukes one city, the United States would nuke one Russian city, if Putin nukes ten, the United States would nike ten, and so on.
Next, the United States must announce that they plan to enter the war in Ukraine, but can reverse this decision, if Putin initiates a referendum in Russia with a proposal to end the war, abolish censorship, and release the political prisoners.
I am sure that Russians will vote in this referendum to end the war. If the war continues, Russian soldiers will be unable to fight, because they will suffer from cognitive dissonance - what are they fighting for? For censorship and repression?

I understand what you are saying; that nuclear deterrents don't work unless you broadcast a plan to use them. There is one issue with symmetrical response though. With the nature of missile warfare being what it is, missile defense systems are far too sophisticated to be overwhelmed by a 1 for 1 tit for tat strike plan. For both NATO and Russia, in order to overwhelm missile defense systems, they need to fire multiple active warheads at the same target in order to ensure the targets destruction, firing at more than one target to spread thin defensive capabilities, reduce the firing range via strategic placement of nuclear armed submarines and other more mobile methods of payload delivery, and make use of hypersonic missile technology. These strategies could also be mitigated if both sides have secretly working PDL systems and it is assumed that both sides have been working on this within highly classified R&D efforts. 

Simply put, due to the existence of missile defense technology, what nuclear warfare will actually look like is far more terrifying than what people think it will look like. In a nuclear war, major cities and strategic targets will likely be hit by more than one warhead. It won't be a case of one for Moscow and one for Washington, each target is going to be targeted with clusters of nuclear weapons. 

[Linkey]

19 hours ago, MSC said:

I understand what you are saying; that nuclear deterrents don't work unless you broadcast a plan to use them.

In current situation, the keyword is broadcasting: not only Putin should know the threats declared by the US, but also the population of Russia. This is especially important now, since the political state in Russia is a kind of "plebiscitary totalitarism": the opinion of Russians if of great importance for Putin, he performs a lot of closed polls to know it, but the Russians are brainwashed. If the nuclear threats of the US are declared for the Russians - this will lead to a decrease of the Putin's rating in Russia when he declares his own threats.

[iNow]

The landscape isn’t as simple as you suggest.

The US making such a declaration would also have ramifications back at home and result in protests, likely loss of elections, etc. US allies would also pushback and potentially add sections and restrict trade or otherwise exert pressure against the US.

The audience goes well beyond “Russia” and it’s naive to believe otherwise when discussing topics as complex as nuclear holocaust. 

[MSC]

On 6/25/2024 at 2:33 PM, Linkey said:

In current situation, the keyword is broadcasting: not only Putin should know the threats declared by the US, but also the population of Russia. This is especially important now, since the political state in Russia is a kind of "plebiscitary totalitarism": the opinion of Russians if of great importance for Putin, he performs a lot of closed polls to know it, but the Russians are brainwashed. If the nuclear threats of the US are declared for the Russians - this will lead to a decrease of the Putin's rating in Russia when he declares his own threats.

I really do sympathise with where you're coming from, I really do. Unfortunately, Putin has more than just Russia brainwashed when it comes to the realities of nuclear war. For example, I'm not sure if Putin would ever really use them unless attacked first but he has a lot of people convinced he absolutely would including many different heads of state.

However keeping in mind that one mans nuclear deterrent is another mans nuclear blackmail and at the international level this is important; if a nuclear armed member of Nato, openly adopts more aggressive/provocative forein nuclear policy or give any nuclear associated deadlines (For example; Putin take your trips from Ukraine within 60 days or face nuclear annihilation) it will be met with very mixed reactions and will walk into some of Putins claims about NATO intimidation. 

I do have one question for you; How sure are you that Putin 1. Cares for the Russian peoples opinions more than his own agenda? 2. How sure are you that his reaction wouldn't just be to stamp down on Russian civilians with more brutality if he feels his power is threatened by the mob?

Where in Russia are you from? My boss is from St Petersburg.

[iNow]

On 6/25/2024 at 1:39 PM, iNow said:

US allies would also pushback and potentially add sections and restrict trade or otherwise exert pressure against the US.

*sanctions

[Linkey]

14 hours ago, MSC said:

I really do sympathise with where you're coming from, I really do. Unfortunately, Putin has more than just Russia brainwashed when it comes to the realities of nuclear war. For example, I'm not sure if Putin would ever really use them unless attacked first but he has a lot of people convinced he absolutely would including many different heads of state.

However keeping in mind that one mans nuclear deterrent is another mans nuclear blackmail and at the international level this is important; if a nuclear armed member of Nato, openly adopts more aggressive/provocative forein nuclear policy or give any nuclear associated deadlines (For example; Putin take your trips from Ukraine within 60 days or face nuclear annihilation) it will be met with very mixed reactions and will walk into some of Putins claims about NATO intimidation. 

You are not a native English speaker? I don't fully understand you.

 

14 hours ago, MSC said:

How sure are you that Putin 1. Cares for the Russian peoples opinions more than his own agenda?

If I am not mistaken, the authorities in Russia perform a lot of closed opinion polls. I rely on the opinian on Russian political scientist Ekaterina Shulman. here is one of her videos:

 

 

14 hours ago, MSC said:

2. How sure are you that his reaction wouldn't just be to stamp down on Russian civilians with more brutality if he feels his power is threatened by the mob?

I don't know this.

Edited June 27 by Linkey

[MSC]

14 hours ago, Linkey said:

You are not a native English speaker? I don't fully understand you.

I am a native English speaker. Let me know what you had trouble with and I'll try my best to help you understand.

[dimreepr]

On 6/27/2024 at 12:49 PM, Linkey said:

If I am not mistaken, the authorities in Russia perform a lot of closed opinion polls. I rely on the opinian on Russian political scientist Ekaterina Shulman. here is one of her videos:

How do you know if she's telling the truth?

I'm not saying she's wrong, I'm saying you're not thinking for yourself; who you believe in, depends on what you want to believe, which depends on your satisfaction of life.

In a brave new world, a perfect authoritarian thinks for everyone and everyone is happy about it.

[Airbrush]

On 6/20/2024 at 6:37 AM, dimreepr said:

It's not weaponry that defeat's them, it's human dignity...

Interesting comment.  Would you please elaborate a little more?  You mean that people with human dignity can defeat Russia without weapons?

[dimreepr]

14 hours ago, Airbrush said:

Interesting comment.  Would you please elaborate a little more?  You mean that people with human dignity can defeat Russia without weapons?

As I've mentioned it's a matter of number's, for instance, if you want to take the fight to a battle tank, what do think is more effective, a thousand men with hand guns or a single man armed with a flower?

What fills more column inches?

South Africa was defeated by the press.

Even Russia is vulnerable to the flower attack, when the time is right... 

[iNow]

I’ll take the thousand armed soldiers. The flower willjust create compost. 

[dimreepr]

1 minute ago, iNow said:

I’ll take the thousand armed soldiers. The flower willjust create compost. 

It's a balance, a thousand armed soldiers just makes a bigger compost heap.

 

A thousand armed florists will just take it in turns to stand in front of the tank, they're far more difficult to avoid, with a reasonable excuse.

[dimreepr]

On 6/28/2024 at 1:53 PM, dimreepr said:

In a brave new world, a perfect authoritarian thinks for everyone and everyone is happy about it.

Or, in a brave new world, someone thinks for themselves; it's a real struggle to imagine which is best...

[Airbrush]

8 hours ago, dimreepr said:

As I've mentioned it's a matter of number's, for instance, if you want to take the fight to a battle tank, what do think is more effective, a thousand men with hand guns or a single man armed with a flower?

How about a thousand men or women armed with antitank weapons, drone IEDs, or Molotov cocktails?

6 hours ago, dimreepr said:

Or, in a brave new world, someone thinks for themselves; it's a real struggle to imagine which is best...

Who is the perfect authoritarian?

[Airbrush]

9 hours ago, dimreepr said:

...if you want to take the fight to a battle tank, what do think is more effective, a thousand men with hand guns or a single man armed with a flower?

Even Russia is vulnerable to the flower attack, when the time is right... 

A "thousand men with handguns" against a tank is absurd, as is a man with a flower.

Wait until "the time is right" for a flower attack on Russian tanks?  Absurd.  Lots of dead Ukrainians holding a flower.  Russia is not vulnerable to a flower attack.

[dimreepr]

14 hours ago, Airbrush said:

A "thousand men with handguns" against a tank is absurd, as is a man with a flower.

Wait until "the time is right" for a flower attack on Russian tanks?  Absurd.  Lots of dead Ukrainians holding a flower.  Russia is not vulnerable to a flower attack.

Don't be obtuse, it's clearly a metaphor so how can it be absurd?

14 hours ago, Airbrush said:

Lots of dead Ukrainians holding a flower.  Russia is not vulnerable to a flower attack.

Ukraine is a different topic, this topic is 'how to overthrow a tyrant'.

Back to the point, it's a matter of number's (of poeple who are just comfortable enough, and just fearful enough to not say anything) and the balance (of people who don't care about the terror, bc it's better than the life they've got), in the end it's always the people that decide what power the tyrant is allowed.

America is famous for it, they chased the tyrant out, but they didn't depose the tyrant... 😉

[dimreepr]

On 6/29/2024 at 9:15 PM, Airbrush said:

Who is the perfect authoritarian?

Well, it used to be god, but for very different reasons (jesus was an anti-bully), failing that perhaps superman...

On 6/29/2024 at 9:15 PM, Airbrush said:

On 6/29/2024 at 1:09 PM, dimreepr said:

 

How about a thousand men or women armed with antitank weapons, drone IEDs, or Molotov cocktails?

I can't think of a better excuse to run them down with my 'better tank' that includes anti-antitank weapons and Molotov cock remover's... 😉

Edited July 1 by dimreepr

[Airbrush]

11 hours ago, dimreepr said:

Well, it used to be god, but for very different reasons (jesus was an anti-bully), failing that perhaps superman...

I can't think of a better excuse to run them down with my 'better tank' that includes anti-antitank weapons and Molotov cock remover's... 😉

You can't "run down" thousands of people fighting for their country, IF they are armed.  If they are not armed, maybe you can do anything you want with them.  Russian tanks are getting worse and worse.  Putin is now sending in his oldest, least capable, tanks. 😉

[dimreepr]

12 hours ago, Airbrush said:

You can't "run down" thousands of people fighting for their country, IF they are armed.

Tell that to Isreal... 🙄

12 hours ago, Airbrush said:

If they are not armed, maybe you can do anything you want with them. 

Sometimes you can, but it's much more difficult to explain when you get caught... 🧐

12 hours ago, Airbrush said:

Russian tanks are getting worse and worse.  Putin is now sending in his oldest, least capable, tanks.

Why are you so obsessed with tanks?

Putin 'the tyrant' think's overwelming power is all it takes to win a war, he has no idea about the power of the flower... 😇 

But don't for a second think that Ukraine, having pushed him from their land, will push on, in order to depose Putin and save the Russians from themselves...

Edited July 2 by dimreepr

[Linkey]

Some people say that my plan in the OP is too risky because Putin can start a nuclear war. If so, maybe there could ne a slightly better plan - using this approach against the CCP instead of Putin. The US should declare and spread this information in the Chinese web: the US will install a military base in Taiwan, but they can reverse this decision if CCP performs a referendum in China, with the suggestions to unblock youtube and wikipedia in the Chinese web. I am sure this can work.

[iNow]

7 hours ago, Linkey said:

I am sure this can work.

Oh, well as long as you’re sure, that’s more than good enough for me! /sarcasm

[dimreepr]

45 minutes ago, iNow said:

Oh, well as long as you’re sure, that’s more than good enough for me! /sarcasm

I've been sat here for nearly an hour trying to think of a good reply to explain the wrongness of that post but, you win +1

[Linkey]

I have written on Medium an article describing my idea:

https://medium.com/@grandrienko22/the-achilles-heel-of-modern-authoritarian-regimes-699c25d6d9a8

Can anybody help me with the information, how can I pay for boosting (promoting) this article in Medium? I was unable to google this information.