swansont Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 5 minutes ago, dimreepr said: Our little anthropocene depends on eternal progess, it's like Moore's law on steroids. I can’t help but notice this doesn’t address the point at all. Just distraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted July 4 Author Share Posted July 4 1 minute ago, swansont said: I can’t help but notice this doesn’t address the point at all. Just distraction. Maybe, but the rest of that post does. I'm not claiming that there's a tea-pot orbiting Mars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansont Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 1 hour ago, dimreepr said: Maybe, but the rest of that post does. I'm not claiming that there's a tea-pot orbiting Mars. No you claimed fusion was “not gonna be cheap” and have not done anything to back up that assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MigL Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Moore's law is a scaling effect. As semiconductor feature size decreases, we can cram more transistors onto a die and increase processing power. As Physicists, Swansont and I know that at a certain scale you cannot entrain enough electrons/holes to have a viable signal; that is a fact of Physics, and we are quickly approaching that scale limit. ( typical multi-level flash memory used in modern SSDs are only trapping a few electrons per cell; enough diffusion events and you've lost data ) Meanwhile we know fusion works. I personally knew Ray ( now deceased ), a British national who was stationed on Christmas Island, in the South Pacific, when the Brits detonated their first thermonuclear bomb as part of operation Grapple in the late 50s. You can probably find others who were there to corroborate the story; just in case you believe the sun in the sky is just a 'torch'. We can achieve the required temperatures; many labs have done so in the last couple of years. And we can contain it. What we can't do, yet, is all three at the same time, and for an extended period of time. So far, only fractions of a second; but that is an engineering problem, not a Physical problem like the limit to Moore's law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted July 5 Author Share Posted July 5 22 hours ago, swansont said: No you claimed fusion was “not gonna be cheap” and have not done anything to back up that assertion. Ok, that's more of a suspicion but you missed a bit “not gonna be cheap" 'for everyone'; if the private sector develop it first, they will charge as much as they can for maximum profit; if a country or group of countries develop it first, they'll want to use the profit to pay a few debts, and they'll want to use it as leverage to collect on a few debts. History suggests to me, that humanity will have very little to do with the price. 22 hours ago, MigL said: Moore's law is a scaling effect. As semiconductor feature size decreases, we can cram more transistors onto a die and increase processing power. As Physicists, Swansont and I know that at a certain scale you cannot entrain enough electrons/holes to have a viable signal; that is a fact of Physics, and we are quickly approaching that scale limit. ( typical multi-level flash memory used in modern SSDs are only trapping a few electrons per cell; enough diffusion events and you've lost data ) That's the point I'm making... 22 hours ago, MigL said: Meanwhile we know fusion works. I personally knew Ray ( now deceased ), a British national who was stationed on Christmas Island, in the South Pacific, when the Brits detonated their first thermonuclear bomb as part of operation Grapple in the late 50s. You can probably find others who were there to corroborate the story; just in case you believe the sun in the sky is just a 'torch'. We can achieve the required temperatures; many labs have done so in the last couple of years. And we can contain it. What we can't do, yet, is all three at the same time, and for an extended period of time. So far, only fractions of a second; but that is an engineering problem, not a Physical problem like the limit to Moore's law. We know computers work and we know that size isn't, necessarily, the limit of computing power; that means we don't know when/if Moore's law will hit the buffers. I think the analogy still work's bc we can't know that there is a when for fusion; much like the sentient computer, theoretically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansont Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 16 minutes ago, dimreepr said: Ok, that's more of a suspicion but you missed a bit “not gonna be cheap" 'for everyone'; if the private sector develop it first, they will charge as much as they can for maximum profit; if a country or group of countries develop it first, they'll want to use the profit to pay a few debts, and they'll want to use it as leverage to collect on a few debts. History suggests to me, that humanity will have very little to do with the price. I would think that other available sources of electricity would set the price. You can’t just choose to jack up the price. And if a business realizes that fusion isn’t cost competitive they won’t build the plant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted July 5 Author Share Posted July 5 35 minutes ago, swansont said: I would think that other available sources of electricity would set the price. You can’t just choose to jack up the price. And if a business realizes that fusion isn’t cost competitive they won’t build the plant. Indeed, but that's not the point I'm making. Fusion isn't the nirvana we think it might be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansont Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 2 hours ago, dimreepr said: Indeed, but that's not the point I'm making. Fusion isn't the nirvana we think it might be... Ah, so that’s the strawman you’re “dismantling” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 3 hours ago, dimreepr said: Indeed, but that's not the point I'm making. Fusion isn't the nirvana we think it might be... Can I borrow your crystal ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImplicitDemands Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 The answer to the thread title is "Yes". But for the wrong reasons. It needn't be this way, if I'd had a companion... As it stands, you wouldn't see me mentioning or applying anything I've ever learned. Here or anywhere else. There are other things I can do for the bare necessities and I'm one of the few who can go mute and carry muteness till the bitter end. The coming months will test that statement. -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 15 minutes ago, ImplicitDemands said: I'm one of the few who can go mute and carry muteness till the bitter end. The coming months will test that statement. I pray for your success 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dimreepr Posted July 6 Author Share Posted July 6 23 hours ago, swansont said: Ah, so that’s the strawman you’re “dismantling” No, it's just a thought. 16 hours ago, iNow said: I pray for your success That about sums it all up for me +1, though I'm very skeptical... 22 hours ago, StringJunky said: Can I borrow your crystal ball? Indeed you can, imagine tomorrow will be very much the same as today; but with extra tech... 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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