2024 Presidential Election: Who should replace Joe Biden?

[exchemist]

9 hours ago, swansont said:

 

I think the US is too homophobic and that would cost votes. I think Pete’s great and should be campaigning but that and his inexperience would be negatives.

Hmm, maybe, though an American friend, not specially liberal but urban admittedly,  thinks most of the country is ready for a gay president now.  Anyway he's quite young so could wait until next time (if there is a next time, which there may not be if Trump wins). 

I do wonder though if Harris has what it takes in terms of breadth of political experience and communicating. She got eliminated pretty early in the 2020 campaigns, I gather.  If she is the nominee, I think one thing she should avoid like the plague is trying to make a virtue out of being a woman and being of colour. That would give off vibes of the  "my turn now" entitlement that helped to sink Hilary Clinton and would play straight into the "talentless D&I appointment"  narrative. She's got to stand on her real merits, show good ideas and attack Trump effectively.

On the last point it would be amusing to see her, or whoever the eventual candidate turns out to be, attacking Trump for being too old and for self-evidently going nuts, both of which are absolutely true. About time someone a generation younger pointed out this Emperor has no clothes.   

[J.C.MacSwell]

“I refuse to take advantage of my relative youth, my sex, or my colour…but campaign on my purpose, commitment to democracy, and my record working with my President Joe Biden. I believe I am the best person for the job as President of the United States of America…especially given the alternative offered by my adversary…democracy’s adversary.”

Hopefully something along those lines …Kamala Harris circa late 2024/near future 

[swansont]

3 hours ago, exchemist said:

Hmm, maybe, though an American friend, not specially liberal but urban admittedly,  thinks most of the country is ready for a gay president now.  Anyway he's quite young so could wait until next time (if there is a next time, which there may not be if Trump wins). 

The country as a whole, perhaps but I think iNow has a point that what’s important is the battleground states, and those aren’t as ready. Look at the legislation they’ve passed recently.

4 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

My prediction was based on the polling data.   The American people knew what they saw and they didn't like it.

Because polls aren’t driven by media narratives* and polls are never wrong

 

*I literally just watched John Oliver point out how polling on fear of “migrant crime” spiked after media mentions of it exploded. This isn’t rocket science. (it’s a cognitive bias, leveraged by people who use propaganda)

[exchemist]

21 minutes ago, swansont said:

The country as a whole, perhaps but I think iNow has a point that what’s important is the battleground states, and those aren’t as ready. Look at the legislation they’ve passed recently.

OK fair enough, that makes sense. 

[Peterkin]

5 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

What's this, actual democracy happening again?

Next time. In the present situation, the Dems - and all the sane people depending on them to stop the Trumproller - can't afford division or indecision. There's very little time left. They have to show resolve and solidarity.

[TheVat]

5 minutes ago, Peterkin said:

Next time. In the present situation, the Dems - and all the sane people depending on them to stop the Trumproller - can't afford division or indecision. There's very little time left. They have to show resolve and solidarity.

Yes, not the year for an open convention.  Primary voters did check a box next to Kamala Harris, so the Dems should proceed on the basis that that, and now Joe's endorsement, make her the most solid choice and they should fast track an early pre-convention nominating vote (as had been planned for Joe).  If primary voters were willing to have Harris be the backup to a man who would turn 86 in his last year of office, I'd say they were okay with her as President.  

[iNow]

27 minutes ago, TheVat said:

If primary voters were willing to have Harris be the backup to a man who would turn 86 in his last year of office, I'd say they were okay with her as President.  

Your point is valid in isolation, but in context there were also no other boxes to check on those primary ballots (except for that odd Minnesota dude, and he didn't even appear everywhere) so I suggest this isn't the most valid framing or test for her viability.

Having only one selection on a ballot and all votes going to that one selection isn't indicative of winning, IMO

[exchemist]

Just to come back to Buttigieg for a moment, this is what I mean about wiping the floor with these Republicans: 

Just watch the first 3 minutes. It's all done very gently, with humour, but he manages to make JD Vance look a prize a**hole without saying anything rude -  and has the audience laughing. It is in truth hard not to laugh. 

The guy is a Rolls Royce.  Harris will be nowhere near him in effectiveness. 

Edited July 22 by exchemist

[Peterkin]

13 minutes ago, exchemist said:

The guy is a Rolls Royce.  Harris will be nowhere near him in effectiveness

How about both? A good balance?

[exchemist]

24 minutes ago, Peterkin said:

How about both? A good balance?

I have to acknowledge the logic of swing state tactics though, as others have pointed out. But he's very useful guy to have around during the campaign, at least.

[swansont]

1 hour ago, exchemist said:

Harris will be nowhere near him in effectiveness

I suspect she will do well with people who are not white males.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised by how quickly the dems have backed Harris. Their history did not suggest this, and was a major reason I thought a change would be a bad idea.

$100 million raised after Biden stepped aside is a pretty good indication of support

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/live-updates-harris-democrats-biden-drops-out-trump-campaign.html

I’ve seen Mark Kelly suggested as a possible running mate; the AZ gov would select a replacement so it wouldn’t be a lost senate seat

[Peterkin]

2 hours ago, swansont said:

I suspect she will do well with people who are not white males.

I wouldn't write off all white males quite so fast. Michael Moore just sent out a newsletter calling for an all female ticket. Well, he is a true blue Michigander, but also a Harris fan. 

[swansont]

31 minutes ago, Peterkin said:

I wouldn't write off all white males quite so fast. Michael Moore just sent out a newsletter calling for an all female ticket. Well, he is a true blue Michigander, but also a Harris fan. 

Didn’t say or mean to imply that. Just that women and people of color will likely identify more with Harris, and she’s been very vocal on abortion, which has resonated quite well with women. Some white men will like her just fine. Some will hate her, but many of them weren’t going to vote for a democrat anyway.

 

[Peterkin]

3 minutes ago, swansont said:

Some white men will like her just fine. Some will hate her, but many of them weren’t going to vote for a democrat anyway.

Exactly! No point trying to woo the dinosaurs. The big challenge, in a short time, is to get the disaffected left-leaning (this means having to make a meaningful connection with labour - not easy), youth and ethnic vote on side. She's got her work cut out; she'd better assemble a good team. 

[StringJunky]

23 minutes ago, swansont said:

Didn’t say or mean to imply that. Just that women and people of color will likely identify more with Harris, and she’s been very vocal on abortion, which has resonated quite well with women. Some white men will like her just fine. Some will hate her, but many of them weren’t going to vote for a democrat anyway.

 

Yes, the dinosaurs will stay as they are: dinosaurs.

[TheVat]

Kelly is looking better to me now, for several reasons 

1.  Immigration hawk, which would allow Kamala to get a little separation from Biden and his unpopular immigration record

2. No threat of lost Senate seat to GOP, since AZ has the governor (D.) appoint replacement.  As @swansont noted also.

3.  Proven ability to work in hard vacuum.  (who else can claim that?)

4.  Proven ability to work in a red state (purpling, now) and perhaps a conduit to Kamala for bipartisan efforts.

5.  The whole grace under pressure thing, from dealing with wife Gabby's severe injuries to helming space missions. (see 3)

6.  Has a Masters degree in a scientific field.  (a great thing to have, in my completely unbiased opinion...)

 

[iNow]

According to the Cook political report, AZ also recently moved from Toss-Up to Leans Republican and he’s popular there so could potentially help swing it blue 

[swansont]

1 hour ago, TheVat said:

Kelly is looking better to me now, for several reasons 

1.  Immigration hawk, which would allow Kamala to get a little separation from Biden and his unpopular immigration record

2. No threat of lost Senate seat to GOP, since AZ has the governor (D.) appoint replacement.  As @swansont noted also.

3.  Proven ability to work in hard vacuum.  (who else can claim that?)

4.  Proven ability to work in a red state (purpling, now) and perhaps a conduit to Kamala for bipartisan efforts.

5.  The whole grace under pressure thing, from dealing with wife Gabby's severe injuries to helming space missions. (see 3)

6.  Has a Masters degree in a scientific field.  (a great thing to have, in my completely unbiased opinion...)

 

<somewhere way down the list>

Has met me

[StringJunky]

Harris has support of enough Democratic delegates to become party’s presidential nominee: AP survey

Looks like the nomination part is probably going to be straightforward.

[iNow]

20 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Looks like the nomination part is probably going to be straightforward.

Well, especially since every single person being seriously considered as a possible alternative, one after another all the way down the line, came out and endorsed her this morning

Even Joe Manchin made it a point to say he wasn’t going to run (tho didn’t yet endorse)

[swansont]

11 hours ago, iNow said:

Even Joe Manchin made it a point to say he wasn’t going to run

I wonder if the fact that a majority of delegates have already endorsed her entered into that. I thought he had earlier said he was throwing his hat in

[iNow]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

wonder if the fact that a majority of delegates have already endorsed her entered into that.

Very likely did, I agree.

1 hour ago, swansont said:

thought he had earlier said he was throwing his hat in

sounds like those were rumblings from his team, but not him directly (if the reports I encountered were accurate)

[swansont]

7 minutes ago, iNow said:

sounds like those were rumblings from his team, but not him directly (if the reports I encountered were accurate)

Yeah, that tracks. Nothing I read were direct announcements, but I wasn’t sure if the second-hand reports were from him or his team, or declarations vs hints.

One analysis pointed out that it’s still an open convention - anybody can declare - but there’s no point to doing so unless your goal is something other than winning.

[MigL]

It would seem K Harris is the yet undeclared Democratic contender for the upcoming election, so we can stop discussing her 'faults' or advantages others may have brought.

We can discuss a running mate that adds to, or enhances, her attributes, and has the best chance of defeating the Trump/Vance ticket.

And just to turn the tables on D Trump, maybe news sources will start mentioning that he is now the oldest person to run for President.
And almost incoherently crazy ...

[TheVat]

Kelly, Beshear, Shapiro.  My guess is it's dwn to those three.  All three give her daylight between her and Biden and know how to talk to moderates without inflaming Progressives.  (though Shapiro has been so pro-Israel that he could put off the progs in the No More Bombs for You, Bibi cohort)

What's really encouraging is Biden waited until the RNC was over to step down, so the GOP is stuck with Vance now.   Any of my trio will eat Vance for breakfast.

17 hours ago, swansont said:

Has met me

As name drops go, that's about as good as it gets.  Astronauts have that special shine.