swansont Posted July 1 Posted July 1 The phrasing of the OP certainly suggests it - it’s not “should we replace Biden?” It skips past that to the position that we should (and skips examining all the reasons it would be disastrous) which is GOP propaganda. Now we have a vague mention of a poll with another bit of spin, but no link to it. It’s meant to have the left admit defeat before the battle has happened. Waste time and effort thinking about some pie-in-the-sky scenarios that aren’t going to happen, feeding the idea that some perfect candidate is out there. There never will be. Any one person’s perfect candidate is mediocre in someone else’s eyes. As the saying goes, it’s like a bus. You take the one that gets you closest to where you want to go. Don’t waste time whining about the fact that it’s not a flying taxi cab. Perfect is the enemy of good enough. If you want to defeat Trump and preserve democracy, let’s get to work. If not, get your Nazi ass away from me. 1
J.C.MacSwell Posted July 1 Posted July 1 Not sure exactly what the “agenda” is, whether to help Trump win against Biden or lose to a potential replacement, but it hardly matters, IMO, for the sake of this thread…this GOP talking point is front and centre, could very well decide the election, and has been taken up by a sizeable number of Democrats…for good reason, again in my opinion. in fact many top Democrats talking against replacement seem to be buying time to think of the best way forward, want to see Biden make the decision to step down on his own terms, simply prefer not to be seen as stabbing Biden in the back…or in some cases all three. Some in fact, may have set Biden up for early exposure in an earlier than usual first debate. I say lock all potential candidates up and don't let them out until they send a smoke signal to indicate they've picked a leader... 1
TheVat Posted July 1 Posted July 1 8 hours ago, Peterkin said: I wonder whose poll that was. If true, which I doubt, the majority of Americans are sleepwalking to the slaughterhouse. In a chat like this, appeals to an unnamed poll seem like shouting scoreboard! I agree that questions about Biden competence have potential to play into the hands of GOP propagandists. Still, given SFN is a low-risk environment in that respect, I'm trying to get some sense of how a debate affects perceptions among groups like the fence sitters, the apathetics who always teeter at the edge of staying home, and the Lincoln project Republicans who waver on just abstaining v voting Joe. And if there is a Democrat in the stable who would activate any of those groups and help deliver Trump to the dungheap of history on 11/5/24. I certainly can't rule out that it's Biden who would remain the surest winner, but would like to test some of the hypotheticals here and not be overconfident. My personal concerns about Biden didn't start last Thursday, indeed I was questioning the whole primary system this winter as to its effectiveness in selecting the optimal candidate (just as I did in 2016 when that system produced Hilary Clinton, a competent policy wonk who lacked the code switching skills required to speak to the working class).
Peterkin Posted July 1 Posted July 1 13 minutes ago, TheVat said: My personal concerns about Biden didn't start last Thursday, indeed I was questioning the whole primary system this winter as to its effectiveness in selecting the optimal candidate (just as I did in 2016 when that system produced Hilary Clinton, a competent policy wonk who lacked the code switching skills required to speak to the working class). The system has a few little weak-points.... Well, now, with the Supreme Court decision, Biden had better get busy bumping off the opposition while he's strong enough.
swansont Posted July 1 Posted July 1 10 minutes ago, TheVat said: I'm trying to get some sense of how a debate affects perceptions among groups like the fence sitters, the apathetics who always teeter at the edge of staying home, and the Lincoln project Republicans who waver on just abstaining v voting Joe. Do these people (esp. the first two groups) even watch debates? Fewer people watched it than watched the first debate in 2020 “the count of those who watched Thursday night's debate on TV marks a 30% decline from 2020, when more than 73 million people watched the first debate between Biden and Trump across all TV networks” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/first-debate-ratings-2024/ Earlier this year a fair fraction of people were unaware Trump had any legal issues https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/02/most-republicans-arent-aware-trumps-various-legal-issues/ A lot of people just don’t pay attention to politics, at least until the ads hit in the fall “But the pattern among Republicans is clear. At most, 45 percent of Republicans said they knew about legal issues: specifically, the documents case and his being found liable for assaulting the writer E. Jean Carroll. Only a quarter knew about the value-inflation suit, and only 4 in 10 knew about the criminal charges in Manhattan related to the hush money payments to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels.”
Alex_Krycek Posted July 2 Author Posted July 2 11 hours ago, MigL said: Seems Swansont was right about the OP; there is an agenda. Just stating facts. It's amongst swing state voters, but still. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/26/biden-trump-swing-state-poll-democracy/ Quote In six swing states that Biden narrowly won in 2020, a little more than half of voters classified as likely to decide the presidential election say threats to democracy are extremely important to their vote for president, according to a poll by The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. Yet, more of them trust Trump to handle those threats than Biden. And most believe that the guardrails in place to protect democracy would hold even if a dictator tried to take over the country.
swansont Posted July 2 Posted July 2 35 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said: Just stating facts. It's amongst swing state voters, but still. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/26/biden-trump-swing-state-poll-democracy/ Not just swing states, a small subset of these voters. Certainly not a “majority of Americans” as you had claimed “Of those surveyed, 2,255 were classified as “Deciders” — those who fit into one or more categories: They voted in only one of the past two presidential elections; are between ages 18 and 25; registered to vote since 2022; did not definitely plan to vote for either Biden or Trump this year; or switched their support between 2016 and 2020.” IOW, likely these are uninformed voters. “Still, most voters, regardless of party, report that the issue matters to them. Gest noted that “the vast majority don’t want to tip toward more authoritarian control,” with systems of representative or direct democracy polling far more favorably.” If that’s the vast majority, the poll was selecting a small minority. Who might have other issues affecting their vote.
Alex_Krycek Posted July 2 Author Posted July 2 3 hours ago, swansont said: Not just swing states, a small subset of these voters. Certainly not a “majority of Americans” as you had claimed “Of those surveyed, 2,255 were classified as “Deciders” — those who fit into one or more categories: They voted in only one of the past two presidential elections; are between ages 18 and 25; registered to vote since 2022; did not definitely plan to vote for either Biden or Trump this year; or switched their support between 2016 and 2020.” IOW, likely these are uninformed voters. “Still, most voters, regardless of party, report that the issue matters to them. Gest noted that “the vast majority don’t want to tip toward more authoritarian control,” with systems of representative or direct democracy polling far more favorably.” If that’s the vast majority, the poll was selecting a small minority. Who might have other issues affecting their vote. Ok, I'll keep em' coming. This one's from the BBC, based on a recent CBS News/YouGov poll. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgln3jx47go A CBS News/YouGov poll released on Sunday (June 30th) indicated that 72% of registered voters believe the president does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president - a sharp increase from the 65% who said the same in an earlier poll. Forty-nine percent of voters said the same of former President Donald Trump. Particularly alarming for the Biden campaign, 45% of registered Democrats who responded to the poll said they believe the president should step aside for another candidate. And you want to roll the dice based on these numbers? You're a heck of a gambler.
swansont Posted July 2 Posted July 2 5 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said: Ok, I'll keep em' coming. This one's from the BBC, based on a recent CBS News/YouGov poll. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgln3jx47go A CBS News/YouGov poll released on Sunday (June 30th) indicated that 72% of registered voters believe the president does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president - a sharp increase from the 65% who said the same in an earlier poll. Forty-nine percent of voters said the same of former President Donald Trump. Particularly alarming for the Biden campaign, 45% of registered Democrats who responded to the poll said they believe the president should step aside for another candidate. And you want to roll the dice based on these numbers? You're a heck of a gambler. And there are polls saying the economy sucks, too, when it doesn’t. People are responding to a narrative pushed by the media, much like “but her emails” in 2016, and the narrative you introduced here.
Peterkin Posted July 2 Posted July 2 2 hours ago, swansont said: And there are polls saying the economy sucks, too, when it doesn’t. People are responding to a narrative pushed by the media, much like “but her emails” in 2016, and the narrative you introduced here. Yes, but a lot of that ersatz mud sticks. People are gullible and these days, inclined to cast great big gobs of blame at the federal government for everything that goes wrong in their lives from hailstorms to bad breath. The more ruckus the media kicks up about Biden's minor failings, the less anyone hears about Trump's glaring faults. Besides, the whole western world seems to be in a let's-go-fascist mood.
swansont Posted July 2 Posted July 2 1 hour ago, Peterkin said: Yes, but a lot of that ersatz mud sticks. People are gullible and these days, inclined to cast great big gobs of blame at the federal government for everything that goes wrong in their lives from hailstorms to bad breath. The more ruckus the media kicks up about Biden's minor failings, the less anyone hears about Trump's glaring faults. Besides, the whole western world seems to be in a let's-go-fascist mood. Appealing to emotion and base instincts works. Make people afraid. Give them a scapegoat. Subvert the system when you can. Lie. Lie some more. Keep repeating the lies.
CharonY Posted July 2 Posted July 2 20 minutes ago, swansont said: Appealing to emotion and base instincts works. Make people afraid. Give them a scapegoat. Subvert the system when you can. Lie. Lie some more. Keep repeating the lies. At this point I would argue that it not only works but has proven to be the most effective means of manipulating public opinion. The mythical link between immigration (or anything alien) and crime is extremely enduring throughout modern human history, for example. It just works and the only thing you need is that people feel some sort of economic crisis (bonus points if they are real, but they don't even have to be).
MSC Posted July 2 Posted July 2 On 6/29/2024 at 11:10 AM, swansont said: Nobody. It’s too late in the process, and you’d be throwing away the advantage incumbents have (name recognition, track record) Agreed. Biden is at 9 out of 13 keys and one of those is incumbancy. I also take issue with On 6/29/2024 at 10:35 AM, MigL said: The only thing J Biden has going for him, is that with his years of experience he will appoint/delegate the tough choices to capable people. I disagree. Biden has way more than just one thing going for him, unfortunately what he doesn't have going for him, is a competent news media industry capable of actually spreading just how successful his track record as president has actually been in terms of commitment to promises and advertised agenda being achieved. That infrastructure investment wasn't nothing, the economy improved as much as it could after Trumps economy wrecking policies and a pandemic. Honestly, if we weren't living in such polarized times, peoples view of Biden would be far different. People also forget, Biden didn't want to be president. If he had, he would have ran in 2016. Duty made him run, not ambition. Duty to protect the democracy he has worked in tirelessly for decades from Trump and his ilk. Here is the thing that really separates Biden and Trump; Trump could be demented and still wouldn't quit. He would endanger so many people by egoicly gripping onto power in his mental decline. As for Joe Biden, while finding a new candidate isn't impossible, finding one who can spread and share their vision/plan, with only a short campaign, enough to convince a very polarised group of voters to actually win? That's a long and steep uphill battle so late in the game under pre-internet conditions. But you know that whomever runs against Trump is going to be dragged through the mud and will be immediately hated by every echo chamber dwelling trump obsessed moron there is and even by democrats. With the way the internet is now, if most people can't even articulate what Joe Bidens achievements are because the press don't cover it well enough to break through the personal filters of most peoples news access, how is a new person going to fare any better?
Peterkin Posted July 2 Posted July 2 13 minutes ago, MSC said: With the way the internet is now, if most people can't even articulate what Joe Bidens achievements are because the press don't cover it well enough to break through the personal filters of most peoples news access, how is a new person going to fare any better? They wouldn't. They would scrutinized endlessly for all the wrong things - their sexual orientation, their hairstyle, their stature, their attire, their manner of speech - not for their record, their integrity or their policies.
iNow Posted July 2 Posted July 2 19 minutes ago, MSC said: People also forget, Biden didn't want to be president I suppose it’s easy to “forget” that given how Biden actually ran for president in 1988, again in 2008, wanted to in 2016, ran again in 2020, and now is running yet again here in 2024. Except for those five (5) distinct times, yeah. He “didn’t want to be president.” 😂 I mostly agree with most of the rest of your post, though.
J.C.MacSwell Posted July 2 Posted July 2 Looks like the knives are coming out soon… https://www.cnn.com
MSC Posted July 2 Posted July 2 1 hour ago, iNow said: I suppose it’s easy to “forget” that given how Biden actually ran for president in 1988, again in 2008, wanted to in 2016, ran again in 2020, and now is running yet again here in 2024. Except for those five (5) distinct times, yeah. He “didn’t want to be president.” 😂 I mostly agree with most of the rest of your post, though. Lol I stand corrected. Yeah my external view of American politics didn't really clock in to anyone other than primary winners until I moved here in 2018. Forgive my ignorance. That said, I do think if he did have trouble maintaining his mental acuity at any point for age related reasons over the next four years, he'd step down and have the VP step in. Which strategically would be the best move to beat the Trump movement in 2028. It will mean KH or some other VP (I'm assuming he's sticking with Harris for his running mate this time around too?) Will have the incumbent advantage in 2028 but won't be close to their 2 term maximum either.
iNow Posted July 2 Posted July 2 1 minute ago, MSC said: assuming he's sticking with Harris for his running mate this time around too? A significant portion of the Democratic base comes from African American voters. Dropping Harris would not be well received by that critical voting group
swansont Posted July 2 Posted July 2 1 hour ago, J.C.MacSwell said: Looks like the knives are coming out soon… https://www.cnn.com “I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same,” Doggett said in his statement Tuesday Yes, LBJ stepping aside worked out really well for the Democrats
J.C.MacSwell Posted July 3 Posted July 3 1 hour ago, swansont said: Yes, LBJ stepping aside worked out really well for the Democrats As per quote, very different circumstances.. I doubt LBJ would have won if he had run again His popularity was suffering because of the Vietnam war. It’t a shame Biden has declined. He would no doubt win against Trump if this was Biden circa 2020…though well passed his prime it seemed reasonable to give him the reigns for 4 years…not many are confidant in giving him another 4 now That said, replacing him won’t be easy. Do they even have time to debate? In most democracies it would probably be yes.
MSC Posted July 3 Posted July 3 42 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: doubt LBJ would have won if he had run again His popularity was suffering because of the Vietnam war. I find it ironic that an ongoing war pulled LBJs popularity down while pulling out of Afghanistan brought down Bidens.
swansont Posted July 3 Posted July 3 38 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: I doubt LBJ would have won if he had run again His popularity was suffering because of the Vietnam war. It’s not an example of a winning strategy. It shows that a candidate stepping aside because of some perceived millstone does not solve the problem.
J.C.MacSwell Posted July 3 Posted July 3 5 minutes ago, swansont said: It’s not an example of a winning strategy. It shows that a candidate stepping aside because of some perceived millstone does not solve the problem. It will be this time if they win… Different circumstances Different times Not saying it will be easy. But given Trump and his present lack of popularity outside his base… It damn well should be!
CharonY Posted July 3 Posted July 3 1 hour ago, J.C.MacSwell said: But given Trump and his present lack of popularity outside his base… I am not entirely sure what you mean. With all things considered either his popularity is good enough to get into a dead heat despite all the disqualifying scandals or his base is large enough that it would not matter.
J.C.MacSwell Posted July 3 Posted July 3 1 hour ago, CharonY said: I am not entirely sure what you mean. With all things considered either his popularity is good enough to get into a dead heat despite all the disqualifying scandals or his base is large enough that it would not matter. His approval to disapproval rating is 41.8 to 53:5 percent. Biden’s is 37.3 to 56.8 percent. I expect it would improve considerably if he dropped out but America doesn’t want either of them. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
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