2024 Presidential Election: Who should replace Joe Biden?

[CharonY]

I think there is a bit of a wishful thinking going on that other than a brainwashed cult is going to favor a democracy-endangering autocrat.

But if we look at where things tend to swing when things are tough or perceived as tough, we have to reckon that this is not the case. In Germany a Nazi-affiliated party is in multiple parliaments and is on its way to become the second largest party. A country where part of the curriculum you learn about the horrors of Nazism in a very unique perspective of all things.

Ah well, back to yelling at clouds.

[J.C.MacSwell]

57 minutes ago, CharonY said:

I think this statement is a bit misleading as it seems to suggest that there is a large swath of people just waiting to drop Trump. 

 

For reasons (generally self serving ones for Republicans) I already gave, it should be clear I wasn’t suggesting that. 
As much as they would prefer someone else, they don’t think they could maintain support of his sizeable base without him, and without that they wouldn’t win.

Apparently winning is more important to them than integrity…or they see the Democrat alternative as worse. 

57 minutes ago, CharonY said:

I think this statement is a bit misleading as it seems to suggest that there is a large swath of people just waiting to drop Trump. 

 

For reasons (generally self serving ones for Republicans) I already gave, it should be clear I wasn’t suggesting that. 
As much as they would prefer someone else, they don’t think they could maintain support of his sizeable base without him, and without that they wouldn’t win.

Apparently winning is more important to them than integrity…or they see the Democrat alternative as worse. 

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Thankfully we don’t need to rely on our intuition and have actual numbers across polling agencies and across the years which consistently show him favorable around 45-48%… consistently, and it only goes up after impeachment and conviction. 
 

Your PBS attachment doesn’t support your statement.

[MSC]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Credit for that could be lost, along with the election, if he insists on continuing to run.

This subject is so uncertain that I can make the exact same statement with one alteration; Credit for that could be lost, along with the election, if the democrats change candidates this late. 

The historical data on this is really not good. LBJ stepped down 7 months before the election and Nixon narrowly won due to democratic infighting over who would be best to replace LBJ. It's already a close race between Biden and Trump, if we hypothetically assume that Biden will step down in the next week, that leaves a little over 4 months left before the election. 

Reagan actually made a pledge that he would resign or back away from a second term run if he felt any form of cognitive decline. He left office in 89, was diagnosed with Alzheimer's in 94 and died ten years later. 

The age question has been around for decades and it is a question of competency really. However, put yourself in Bidens shoes, you've got people telling you that you should resign, meanwhile your own Doctors are telling you that you're fine and just need a bit more sleep in your routine. 

Something that kind of gets lost on people is the double edged sword of being the incumbent, the very reason LBJ stepped down. The challenger can just campaign, the incumbent has to campaign and still do the job of being president. Johnson couldn't get any kind of passion for campaigning when he was trying to de-escalate the war in Vietnam and was suffering from a dive in popularity because of the war, domestic policy track record aside. 

So yeah, based on that it doesn't surprise me that when you put Trump and Biden next to each other, the one who is working harder is the one who appears tired. 

[swansont]

27 minutes ago, MSC said:

put yourself in Bidens shoes, you've got people telling you that you should resign

Who is telling Biden this? Actually telling him, not mouthing off online.

—-

At this point in the 2016 cycle, Clinton was polling about 10 points above Trump. Polls aren’t votes. There’s a lot of campaigning left to do.

[MSC]

9 minutes ago, swansont said:

Who is telling Biden this? Actually telling him, not mouthing off online.

Just needs to read the news. It's just a general people are saying it and he has access to view people saying it, online or elsewhere. I couldn't say either way when it comes to his inner circle and party leadership. He isn't Trump though, I doubt he has built a culture around himself of nobody saying anything he doesn't want to hear, like Donald Trump. 

I don't agree with it and think the discussion is ridiculous to have at this time and I'd rather leave determinations to medical professionals or the VPs 25th ammendment powers. Maybe if he wasn't going against Trump and the threat to democracy wasn't so great I'd entertain the idea of replacement but all roads in this case are filled with risk as is the nature of dealing with people like Trump. 

16 minutes ago, swansont said:

At this point in the 2016 cycle, Clinton was polling about 10 points above Trump. Polls aren’t votes. There’s a lot of campaigning left to do.

Exactly! Biden is still more than capable of beating Trump and did it despite the same worries and concerns then as OP is discussing now. This isn't new for Biden. He won before despite these same criticisms being used last time. 

[MigL]

I personally don't think it's a good idea to replace J Biden this late in the game; it smacks of desperation, the electorate will realize this, and Republicans will use the discord in the Democratic party to their advantage.
If anyone has an argument against this, I'm willing to change my mind.

Some other arguments however, just don't make sense.
INow presents polls showing D Trump polling higher than J Biden, indicating that Biden will likely lose the election, yet he's content to pray to God for a miracle Biden win, rather than make any change.

My opinion in this matter doesn't count for much ( although I'll suffer the consequences of a Trump win also ) but the Democratic party has to decide; if polls are right, do nothing is a sure loss, so you've got to do something, if polls are wrong, then they are wrong about K Harris and some of the other mentioned possible candidates not being able to take on Trump.

[MSC]

14 minutes ago, MigL said:

INow presents polls showing D Trump polling higher than J Biden, indicating that Biden will likely lose the election, yet he's content to pray to God for a miracle Biden win, rather than make any change.

You've misinterpreted a bit. That Poll shows thats Biden is lower in unfavourability and higher in favorability than Trump. iNow earlier was still of the opinion it's too late in the game and at some point in all the replies it seems to have gotten a bit lost on who stands where, but as far as I'm aware he agrees with you MigL, as do I. He's just more patient with others who think Biden should be replaced than I am. 

Just now, MSC said:

You've misinterpreted a bit. That Poll shows thats Biden is lower in unfavourability and higher in favorability than Trump.

Solid bar is favourability, dotted bar is unfavourability. Red is Trump, blue is Biden. Trumps dotted bar is highest because a larger majority doesn't like him. Bidens solid bar is higher than trumps because less people dislike him. Both are disliked more than 50% but Biden has more people who like him than those who like Trump. Like and dislike may not reflect voting habits though as some people can have a dislike for people they politically align with. So while some may still dislike both they will still vote for one. On voting day polls don't matter, just who is on the ballet when it's time to make the mark. 

[iNow]

3 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Your PBS attachment doesn’t support your statement.

Please elaborate 

1 hour ago, MigL said:

INow presents polls showing D Trump polling higher than J Biden, indicating that Biden will likely lose the election, yet he's content to pray to God for a miracle Biden win, rather than make any change.

Is the “he” in there supposed to refer to me?

I’ve been hoping and advocating for an August surprise where Gavin Newsom takes the reins and Biden rides off to a farm in Delaware since early last year and have repeated that desire often since the primaries concluded, and after he debated DeSantis. 

I’m also clear that Biden is right when he says this decision is his and nobody’s gonna force him out. 

1 hour ago, MSC said:

On voting day polls don't matter, just who is on the ballet

On voting day, it only matters who shows up which is my biggest concern for Biden: Apathy and low turnout. Also, poll accuracy is getting more and more difficult as practically nobody answers their cell phones for unknown numbers (aka: pollsters) so the samples are weak and often unrepresentative

[J.C.MacSwell]

6 hours ago, iNow said:

Please elaborate 

The graphic doesn’t Trump’s favourability consistently between 45-48 percent. It only gets close to that once. 
it doesn’t show what it is across the years. Just parts of 2022 and 2023. 
It therefore doesn’t show what it was prior to impeachment or after conviction.  
So whatever you based your statement on…it can’t be that graphic. 

[iNow]

Fine. 42% instead of 45% as the average, with a recent upward trend since January, and spikes since conviction. Multiple individual polls easily support the range I cited. From 538:

Perhaps the better focus here is that your 30% suggestion isn’t even close. 40-48% favorables is the number and that can’t be wished away.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

[TheVat]

9 hours ago, iNow said:

On voting day, it only matters who shows up which is my biggest concern for Biden: Apathy and low turnout.

This is key to the whole discussion.  Not polls, which have become about as useful as reading sheep entrails. Listless voters must be energized, and that requires the tumult of the Democrats publicly thrashing out what sort of party they want to be.  I.e. the healthy admission that politics is a contentious process.  And it will mean taking a risk.  Too many people are getting their election information by means of short quotes and clips on social media that reduce the competitors to caricatures and reduce governance to single issues (like tooth care, apparently, in the UK).  So, as @CharonY and others have noted, all paths are volatile.

[J.C.MacSwell]

13 hours ago, iNow said:

Perhaps the better focus here is that your 30% suggestion isn’t even close. 40-48% favorables is the number and that can’t be wished away.

Perhaps you need to focus on the definition of a base if you think Trump’s can be as high as 48 percent. 

Fortunately it’s n where close. 

[iNow]

Base was your word, not mine. 

On 7/4/2024 at 6:49 PM, iNow said:

numbers across polling agencies and across the years which consistently show him favorable around 45-48%

 

[J.C.MacSwell]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Base was your word, not mine. 

 

Exactly. My 30 percent suggestion was referring to Trump’s base. 
if you’re going to take issue with it don’t compare it to a favourability rating. 
RFK juniors favourability is around 33 percent. Obviously that’s not his base. 

[iNow]

I understand. We were talking passed one another. Apologies for that. My main struggle is how you’re pulling a number out of your butt.  

My numbers, while not precisely aligned with your focus, were at least able to be validated while in parallel touching upon the remarkably similar / overlapping theme of support.

Edited July 6 by iNow

[Alex_Krycek]

The donors are all jumping ship now too.

Can't seen Biden continuing with empty coffers.

[iNow]

His interview with Stephanopoulos didn’t help, and may even have exacerbated concerns. Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries meets with House Dems Sunday where calls to step aside will only grow more intense 

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

His interview with Stephanopoulos didn’t help, and may even have exacerbated concerns. Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries meets with House Dems Sunday where calls to step aside will only grow more intense 

"You run and you run to catch up with the sun

But it's sinking....." - Roger Waters

[iNow]

Turns out the meeting today will also include senate dems 

[Alex_Krycek]

In 2020 Biden was +9 over Trump going into the election, and Biden barely won in 2020.

Now Biden is losing to Trump in practically every poll, he's down by 3-6 points in nearly every battleground state.

He needs to mount a massive comeback if he wants to beat Trump, which he can't do because of his age.  The DNC will continue to keep him sequestered away behind closed doors as much as possible.

Looks like we know who's going to replace Biden after all: Donald Trump.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

It's also highly likely we'll lose the Senate and House as well.  Once the DNC locks in Biden as the official candidate at the convention, Republicans are going to run ads in every congressional race with the Democratic candidate next to Biden.  Biden will drag down the entire party.  

Edited July 10 by Alex_Krycek

[swansont]

47 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

The DNC will continue to keep him sequestered away behind closed doors as much as possible.

Biden was attending a NATO meeting this week. Trump is the one who hadn’t been seen in public for 10 days until his rally at his golf course.

Can you stop peddling propaganda?

47 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

It's also highly likely we'll lose the Senate and House as well

We? Did you answer my question about whether you are able to vote in the US?

[Alex_Krycek]

46 minutes ago, swansont said:

Trump is the one who hadn’t been seen in public for 10 days until his rally at his golf course.

The right move for him, that's for sure.  Law low and let all the negative attention be on the Dems.

46 minutes ago, swansont said:

Can you stop peddling propaganda?

I don't see how facts are propaganda.  If anything, this idea that Biden is somehow the strongest candidate we have is the propaganda.  Orwellian to say the least.    

46 minutes ago, swansont said:

We? Did you answer my question about whether you are able to vote in the US?

Who I vote for is none of your business.  I've made it clear in previous posts who I think is the stronger candidate.  

[swansont]

15 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Who I vote for is none of your business. 

That’s not what I asked.

[Alex_Krycek]

1 hour ago, swansont said:

That’s not what I asked.

Well, like I said, A) it's none of your business, and B.) it's irrelevant to the debate we're having.

I presented data from 12 polls from different media outlets that show evidence that Trump is now winning, and you want to engage in ad-hom deflections instead of presenting a strong counter argument to the facts.

Kind of sums up what's wrong with the Democratic party writ-large actually.  

Edited July 10 by Alex_Krycek

[J.C.MacSwell]

Is it to late for Andrew Yang’s Forward Party to at least threaten to run a viable candidate, if the DNC doesn’t?

I don’t know who it might be, maybe some prominent Democrat, and maybe a prominent Democrat or Republican with them on the ticket. 

And say they agree to step back if the Dems offer a viable candidate. 
 

I’m assuming of course that Biden’s candidacy remains unviable, with no miraculous return to full health.