Harris vs Trump;

[MSC]

Making this poll as I'm at the point where I feel I have seen enough to know how this is going to turn out. My prediction, Harris is going to win. I'm curious to see what you all think of the race so far and who you believe will win. Doesn't have to be based on who you want to win, just who you think will win. 

[iNow]

15 minutes ago, MSC said:

I feel I have seen enough to know how this is going to turn out

lol. 3 months may as well be 3 decades in politics 

[MSC]

34 minutes ago, iNow said:

lol. 3 months may as well be 3 decades in politics 

Fair. I'm still certain she will win though and it isn't just polls or wishful thinking but policy impact during Biden's time in office and a variety of other factors that make me say that. It's still no more than an educated guess, but I got the last one right so I'm swinging for a second. If this was who wants to be a millionaire and this was for £1,000,000 (sorry USA Chris Tarrant was the best host so British version it is lol) I'd be locking in Harris. The energy and excitement in, around and about her campaign is very reminiscent to Obamas campaign, people seem to like her running mate Walz, Trump is badly floundering and seems to be in cognitive decline too now or isn't handling the stress of facing a more energetic opponent so well and it's getting harder and harder for republicans to defend him, the entire tone of the election has changed and the economic impact of Bidens infrastructure deal and the inflation reduction act, in swing states particularly (Solar panel manufacturing in Georgia as an example) but lots of clean energy subsidies and tax credits are being filed for in Arizona, Michigan and elsewhere too. The race in Florida has now come within the polls margin of error so they are literally neck and neck, in Florida. 

The context of the race is also important since Biden is still president. If a serious gaffe happens within the federal government now, Harris can distance herself and Biden doesn't lose anything to take the blame (for example if there was a massive mishandling of a public health emergency within the next few months).

No, short of assassination or a serious health issue, I do think Harris is gonna win it, and the 3 months in politics can still work in her favour too if whatever happens can benefit her run over Trumps. Hell, a new good reason to think he'll lose, comes out of his mouth every time he speaks now.

 

[iNow]

1 hour ago, MSC said:

it isn't just polls or wishful thinking but policy impact during Biden's time in office

Since when does policy win elections?

[MSC]

36 minutes ago, iNow said:

Since when does policy win elections?

Depends on the policy, but no, not on their own. In this case; if the impact of a policy leads to voters in swing states, gaining or having friends or family gain new jobs, that wouldn't be available without those policies, that ripples. 

Policies definitely can contribute towards an election win though, not on their own but then I'm not making my claim that Harris will win, based solely on policy. My claim is made in relation to a variety of factors. This might even be an election where the VP pick has far more impact than it has in previous elections. I'd never really heard much about Walz for example but that in itself is an advantage as anyone more known would have been lambasted for awhile by Republicans talking hypotheticals, like Buttiegieg for example. I guess you'd call it a kind of insult based attrition where the longer Trump and his brood cult have to focus on you, the harder it is to overcome the damage to your image whether what is said about you is true or not. 

I don't know why but when I look at everything together, my mind just screams "Harris will win barring any major changes to the political landscape." If Trump drops out or is assassinated, thats one. Kennedy dropping out or those ballet exclusions making it through the courts could also skew it as he's likely to take more votes from Trump than Harris. Obviously I'm completely wrong if Harris is assassinated. If compelling evidence came to light of her committing a crime of moral turpitude that could also derail her campaign. 

3 months is a long time in politics sure, but not a lot of time to work on constructing a factory in the new American battery belt or to work in solar panel manufacturing or to build roads and bridges. Those folk will be working those jobs for much longer than 3 months and it's only looking like more jobs will need to be created in those sectors in the future and there will be claimable subsidies and tax credits from the inflation reduction act for the next decade. 

These are some of the areas voters are most concerned about. Inflation is now at 2.9%, first it's been below 3% since 2021 and the federal reserve is already having discussions on when to cut interest rates. 

People care very much about the abortion issue still also. I'd say more on that but it's late, I'm tired and I've got peaches to pick tomorrow early before they fall! 

[MigL]

It's several months till the election and a little early ( or is it already too late ) to start underestimating the stupidity of some Americans.

[CharonY]

6 minutes ago, MigL said:

It's several months till the election and a little early ( or is it already too late ) to start underestimating the stupidity of some Americans.

I have underestimated stupid and have learned that is a very durable condition.

[TheVat]

3 hours ago, MSC said:

Making this poll as I'm at the point where I feel I have seen enough to know how this is going to turn out. My prediction, Harris is going to win. I'm curious to see what you all think of the race so far and who you believe will win. Doesn't have to be based on who you want to win, just who you think will win. 

Have you heard the chess term "zugzwang"?  I think that's where Trump and his sidekick are at currently.  

41 minutes ago, MigL said:

It's several months till the election and a little early ( or is it already too late ) to start underestimating the stupidity of some Americans.

HL Mencken:  nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.

[MigL]

He's already been forced to make bad moves, such as picking J D Vance for a running mate.
Maybe he can 'zwischenzug' by getting shot again and gaining some sympathy votes.

[CharonY]

He is more likely to do a chess pigeon move.

[MSC]

8 hours ago, TheVat said:

Have you heard the chess term "zugzwang"?  I think that's where Trump and his sidekick are at currently.  

Yeah it's when you realise there is no no way to escape checkmate and you've lost already, now you have to pick between forfeit or letting your opponent play out their moves for a satisfying win.

[StringJunky]

6 hours ago, CharonY said:

He is more likely to do a chess pigeon move.

He's been doing that methodically since he started, so that no one can see the board any more to play properly.

[Janus]

12 hours ago, MigL said:

He's already been forced to make bad moves, such as picking J D Vance for a running mate.
Maybe he can 'zwischenzug' by getting shot again and gaining some sympathy votes.

It didn't seem to help him the last time, as he received no bump in the polls afterward. Maybe, after all his whining about "witch hunts" concerning his recent legal problems, he's used that well too often, and it's gone dry.

[TheVat]

3 hours ago, MSC said:

Yeah it's when you realise there is no no way to escape checkmate and you've lost already, now you have to pick between forfeit or letting your opponent play out their moves for a satisfying win.

Well, it does not necessarily mean they can't escape checkmate, but rather any situation where a player is forced to make a move that will worsen their position.   A chess player can't skip a move, even when that may be advantageous.  Trump might be where he wants to skip a move (or yes, play pigeon chess), and sit out some things that a campaign requires.  Any move is likely to worsen his position, because he can't reverse bad choices without looking weak to his core supporters.  

[geordief]

1 hour ago, Janus said:

It didn't seem to help him the last time, as he received no bump in the polls afterward. Maybe, after all his whining about "witch hunts" concerning his recent legal problems, he's used that well too often, and it's gone dry.

I was very surprised he didn't get much of a bump(was it cancelled out  very quickly when Biden called it off?)

Bet Trump was put out by that after all that ear merchandising  to complement the  pampers  couture.

[iNow]

He saw a slight bump in polls immediately after the shooting, but negated those gains rather quickly when he decided not to moderate his tone and instead doubled down on being an asshole at the RNC convention 

[MigL]

10 minutes ago, iNow said:

and instead doubled down on being an asshole at the RNC convention

He was already 'all in' on being an asshole.

[iNow]

1 hour ago, MigL said:

He was already 'all in' on being an asshole.

Of course, but for a few brief moments there was broad talk, including among his supporters and fellow republicans, that the event would give him some needed perspective and he’d be less combative/ more welcoming. It was just wish thinking tho

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/18/trump-rnc-image-change-after-assassination-attempt/74404809007/
 

Quote

The attempt on his life may give him the best chance at breaking free, offering a kind of political parole from voters sympathetic to the bandage on his bullet-grazed ear, and possibly a second look from those who normally oppose him, all while elevating his reputation with true believers to near martyr status.

<…>
For three days, Trump's family, surrogates and supporters have said the shooting changed the 78-year-old former president, giving him a new outlook, and that he tore up an aggressive speechaimed at dismantling his opponent's administration in favor of one aimed at national unity.

Instead, he said “No, I think I’ve gotten worse.”

 

 

[geordief]

12 minutes ago, iNow said:

course, but for a few brief moments there was broad talk, including among his supporters and fellow republicans, that the event would give him some needed perspective and he’d be less combative/ more welcoming. It was just wish thinking tho

Yes  ,it wouldn't have been hard.He has gone down in my estimation as an expert conman.

Victim of his own bs?

 

Something crawled up his ear?

[iNow]

Musks AI company just released an uncensored state of the art diffusion model that creates images, audio, and video that looks as real as can possibly be and can be used for free / $8 per month and which is trained on all twitter post data. 

We’re about to see what deepfakes do to an election since they just made it so easy. 

This is a tame example generated in 2 seconds, there are some seriously nasty ones already floating around. Lots of people will believe what they see. 
 

 

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Musks AI company just released an uncensored state of the art diffusion model that creates images, audio, and video that looks as real as can possibly be and can be used for free / $8 per month and which is trained on all twitter post data. 

We’re about to see what deepfakes do to an election since they just made it so easy. 

This is a tame example generated in 2 seconds, there are some seriously nasty ones already floating around. Lots of people will believe what they see. 
 

 

I'm getting really annoyed with having to think twice when I see manipulated images now on facebook. We are the lucky ones because we have references, being pre-internet, but it's going to be impossible for youngsters growing up now to differentiate fact from fiction.

[MigL]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

This is a tame example generated in 2 seconds, there are some seriously nasty ones already floating around. Lots of people will believe what they see. 
 

 

Hey ! Wait a minute.
Is she letting him "grab her by the pu*sy" ?

Actually, I should show some respect; hopefully, she's the next American President.

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

I'm getting really annoyed with having to think twice when I see manipulated images now on facebook. We are the lucky ones because we have references, being pre-internet, but it's going to be impossible for youngsters growing up now to differentiate fact from fiction.

It is getting pretty bad rather fast. And I am not entirely sure where but we are definitely failing the younger generation in terms of teaching critical thinking and media literacy. Even in the past you might have the odd kid in class who believes weird things because they saw it somewhere on the internet. Now almost half the class doesn't believe me when I tell them that viewing an unsourced video is not doing research. And the rate increases rapidly.

[iNow]

9 hours ago, CharonY said:

I am not entirely sure where but we are definitely failing the younger generation in terms of teaching critical thinking and media literacy.

It starts with the parents, and amplifies by the way our “taxes are evil culture” has kept reducing school funding. Add social media replacing boredom and you have a dangerous cocktail of stupidity 

11 hours ago, StringJunky said:

it's going to be impossible for youngsters growing up now to differentiate fact from fiction.

Won’t be easy for old timers either 

[StringJunky]

Looks like we are going to have to go back to analogue methods for important stuff. Stone tablets, pen and paper, and film photography and video.

"Houston... we have a problem".

Not only is democracy under threat, but authenticity is as well.

Edited August 16 by StringJunky