Harris vs Trump;

[CharonY]

6 hours ago, iNow said:

It starts with the parents, and amplifies by the way our “taxes are evil culture” has kept reducing school funding. Add social media replacing boredom and you have a dangerous cocktail of stupidity 

Parents are part of it, but I think the school system has not kept up with this trends (especially up to and increasingly including university). They are still using metrics and methods where the use of the internet can entirely circumvent learning processes while still providing false sense of success in form of high grades. More money alone would not help that much, it requires a re-thinking of how to learn how to learn in the 21st century. We used to think that available information facilitates thinking, I believe we are arriving at an inflection point, where this is no longer true.

Add to that the almost constant distraction by social media, it results folks in leaving little mental overhead to actually do any level of thinking or legwork related to that (e.g. source analysis). It is not that the students do not put in the time. But since they do not learn how to acquire the knowledge properly (other than memorization- and even that is getting rarer), even simple tasks feel much harder to them than it should be. This, in turn often leads to frustration, as many do not realize that spending time is not the same as being productive.

/rant off

 

[iNow]

3 hours ago, CharonY said:

many do not realize that spending time is not the same as being productive.

Sounds like Trump and many of his supporters. /segue

Back on topic, baby!

[CharonY]

Yup. Dunning Kruger has become a vibe now.

[npts2020]

Since there is still an electoral college, I think Trump will win. It seems like he has rural America pretty much locked up and those places wield more power in a Presidential election than do urban ones. Virtually everyone I know who is a Trump supporter complains about the high price of gas, groceries and rent (the fact that inflation was lower in the US than in most of the rest of the world is irrelevant) and immigration (one of the good ole bogeymen-these lesser humans are coming to take away your livelihood and change your way of life). While both sides seem willing to take steps that are likely to be completely inadequate for the mass migration event that is just beginning and is likely to only grow in the coming decades, neither wants to talk about the root causes of either. Like, how come at the peak of the oil crisis in the 70's, when gas was being "rationed", the price of a barrel of oil went above $150 but gas never approached $3/gallon (most places it was still <$1) yet today, when the price of a barrel of oil is less then half the peak of 50 years ago there are few places you can get gas for (not much) under $3. Or, how much does allowing corporate entities to buy up massive quantities of residential and agricultural real estate affect rents or ability of the average person to buy a home? 

[iNow]

9 hours ago, npts2020 said:

everyone I know who is a Trump supporter complains about the high price of gas, groceries and rent

None of which is controlled by the president. Just shows how self-reinforcing our problems are with poor education and lack of basic civics knowledge among the voting populace. 

[MSC]

10 hours ago, npts2020 said:

Virtually everyone I know who is a Trump supporter complains about the high price of gas, groceries and rent

So you think Trump will win based only on the views of Trump supporters? 

As it stands; pollsters and betters believe Harris is going to win the electoral college and the popular vote; while the race is still competitive, the race has completely changed as Harris is polling very well among women and independent white working class voters. 

Not just in terms of support but the percentages of people who say they are excited to vote for her are way up. Her campaign is re-engaging people who weren't happy with either choosing Trump or Biden.

Trump is also shooting himself in the foot by not only ignoring policy in favour of personal attack strategies that most are just bored with, but by suggesting he will stop infrastructure works in swing states, effectively destroying a large amount of construction jobs on roads and bridges. 

Also everything Trump said of Bidens age is now coming to bite Trump in the ass as now he's the old hasbeen fart in the race. Not to mention that they have been throwing those kind of insults at Biden, since 2020 when he was 78/79, the same age Trump is now. 

Look, Trump still has a very loyal base, but that's all and his current strategy seems to be to pander to that base instead of trying to win independents and moderates. He's completely setting the stage for another big election lie if/when he loses. 

Lastly, we are less than 5 weeks away from Trump being sentenced, and with his remarks about fleeing to Venezuela if he loses the election (Keep in mind Trump is out on bail right now) then his multiple prosecutors may very well decide to ask the courts to hold trump until sentencing in one case or trials in other cases and considering he has means and has now shared publicly a desire to flee, it isn't too much of a stretch to see his bail being revoked. The guy is a flight risk, plain and simple. Obviously he wouldn't flee to Venezuela, but Saudi Arabia or Russia maybe. 

Now I've hated trump the whole time he's been in politics but even I can say that he was smarter in 2016 when he won and he is in serious decline. Big box of tictacs + little box of tictacs = inflation... that's his arguments now, that's what people get when he does talk about economics. No policy ideas, no plan on how to reduce the cost of living for the working and middle-class. Just "Dont vote for a woman with a crazy laugh who was always Indian then suddely became black". 

My concern isn't that Trump will win the electoral college as I don't think he is going to; my concern is whether his margin of loss will be small enough for the supreme court to interfere with the election and essentially crown him by themselves with some legal fuckery. 

[iNow]

10 minutes ago, MSC said:

his multiple prosecutors may very well decide to ask the courts to hold trump until sentencing in one case or trials in other cases

They can ask, but will never happen given courts concern over prioritizing optics of fairness and avoiding politics. 

10 minutes ago, MSC said:

My concern isn't that Trump will win the electoral college as I don't think he is going to; my concern is whether his margin of loss will be small enough for the supreme court to interfere

Anticipate a very tight margin. His voters are ride or die.

Something which may significantly expand margin for Harris and reduce this risk? Israel declares a ceasefire in Gaza. 

Edited August 18 by iNow
Auto incorrect

[toucana]

On 8/15/2024 at 3:21 AM, TheVat said:

.  HL Mencken:  nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.

"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities."   (Attributed to W. Churchill and others).

 

Sources from inside the Trump campaign say that he is endlessly rewatching the 7 second clip of the July 13 shooting that almost claimed his life, and may be developing symptoms of PTSD (post traumatic stress disorder) as a result .

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/is-donald-trump-suffering-from-ptsd-watching-same-clip-of-getting-shot/articleshow/112549308.cms

Meanwhile, Trump’s ongoing cognitive decline led him to tell a Pennsylvania rally audience that they were all in North Carolina the other night.

 

On current form is there a chance that FPOTUS might be remanded in custody to a secure medical facility for psychiatric evaluation when he next appears in front of Judge Juan Merchan for sentencing on September 18 ?

 

Edited August 18 by toucana
deleted extra 'the' L.2 and corrected YT URL

[MSC]

5 minutes ago, toucana said:

On current form is there a chance that FPOTUS might be remanded in custody to a secure medical facility for psychiatric evaluation when he next appears in front of Judge Juan Merchan for sentencing on September 18 ?

It's not beyond a possibility at least and the optics of that would look better than throwing him in jail, in the sense that it can done in the name of caring for Trumps well-being. 

35 minutes ago, iNow said:

Anticipate a very tight margin. His voters are ride or die.

His base by itself isn't enough to win the electoral college and he's done everything he can do discourage his voters from even bothering to show up at the ballot box. Why vote if you think it's rigged? Unfortunately he hasn't grown his base at all while Harris is enjoying bipartisan support from Republicans and evangelicals who see a vote to protect the country from a potential dictator, as patriotic. 

Another aspect to this election though, and one that could upend my prediction, is actually if Kennedy drops out of the race. At first he seemed to pull a few supporters from both dems and republicans but now it's clear he has been pulling more voters from Trump than Biden or Harris. When running hypothetical matchups, Harris polls better than Trump with Kennedy in the race. Kennedy also seems crazy enough not to drop out even though he has no hope of winning.

A ceasefire in Gaza I think would increase support for Harris. I don't know how much by, but it could. 

There is also a camp of independent and Republican voters (a very small camp) who won't be voting for either the Democrat or Republican candidate and intend to do a write in vote for their local senators and congressional reps. 

On a personal note; I convinced a Trump supporter yesterday that one thing they have been told is a complete lie. I'm a greencard holding immigrant and as such it is a fact that I cannot vote for nor contribute to any candidate for federal offices. When they suggested that maybe I just don't know I'm allowed to vote, I shut that down by saying straight that I want to vote in this election so bad that if any new law showed up giving me that right, I'd absolutely know about it. Maybe in some local municipalities somewhere in the states I have a right to vote as a lawful permanent resident but definitely not at the federal level. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but to give greencard holders the right to vote in federal elections would require an act of congress. Is that correct? Fat chance of that happening when Republicans control the house.

[MSC]

Donald Trump infuriates his supporters.

The above is a link to a DailyMail story detailing how Trump supporters view Trumps attempts to grow his base. Trump has really boxed himself in it seems as he has radicalised his base so much, that if he attempts to engage in any form of moderate/independent attracting speech, he will alienate his own supporters, some of whom are claiming "I just won't vote" unless Trump backs policies that contribute toward a net negative immigration outcome. 

On another note; Trump is apparently obsessively rewatching the footage from the attempt on his life and some are of the opinion he's developing PTSD.

Honestly I kind of feel like he may be about to have a nervous breakdown, a very public one! One that will be very hard for anyone to claim it is anything but unhinged. 

[TheVat]

6 hours ago, MSC said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but to give greencard holders the right to vote in federal elections would require an act of congress. Is that correct?

Yes, a statute passed in 1924 banning noncitizens from voting in federal elections.  (it is not forbidden in the Constitution)  That federal statute would have to be struck down by Congress.  It's a good statute, given the threat of crazy Scotsmen flooding into our country.  🙂

5 hours ago, MSC said:

On another note; Trump is apparently obsessively rewatching the footage from the attempt on his life and some are of the opinion he's developing PTSD.

Honestly I kind of feel like he may be about to have a nervous breakdown, a very public one!

I am not sure how one would discern a nervous breakdown of Trump.  He seemed unhinged to me in 2016, but millions of voters seemed not to mind.  I would guess Trump rallies are like 9" Nails concerts - the man on stage can lose his shit and it's the high point of the show.  

[MSC]

3 hours ago, TheVat said:

It's a good statute, given the threat of crazy Scotsmen flooding into our country. 

Lol trust me we aren't flooding in and I'd never have been able to get a work visa without a specialized degree and experience in some kind of job that pays 6 figures. Me meeting my wife was a fluke. That said, in two years I'll be eligible to naturalise and I'll just be another crazy American! 

3 hours ago, TheVat said:

am not sure how one would discern a nervous breakdown of Trump.  He seemed unhinged to me in 2016, but millions of voters seemed not to mind.  I would guess Trump rallies are like 9" Nails concerts - the man on stage can lose his shit and it's the high point of the show.  

Oh it can get worse and with individuals like Trump, who like to blame others for their failures, it's only a matter of time before they accuse their own followers of not being loyal enough in a deranged screaming fit. I recall an early youtuber who went that way and was like Trump in so many ways. Trumps advanced age and being in cognitive decline, self control will go out the window eventually and the unmasking begins. Having all eyes on you is also it's own type of stress and narcissists like Trump can't deal with being seen in a negative light for too long. The fact that he's getting pushback from republicans and his own supporters now and that cracks are starting to show will create a panic in him. I mean some idiots will support him no matter what and even if they can acknowledge his worsening mental state they'll blame it on democrats for "Witch hunting" him... but not all of them will do that. His supporters aren't a monolith either and support him for different reasons. Us viewing them all as the same is a mistake and if you look back over the last decade until 2016 you'll notice that he chips away at his own supporters with increasing levels of alienation and blocks do fall away as time goes on. Right now he's losing support amongst woman, not just because Harris is a woman but because of how Trump speaks about her.  

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, MSC said:

I'll just be another crazy American! 

Oh no, that is how it always starts. Soon enough you won't be able to distinguish "real" American cheese from an Anster and you will have to plant an American flag everywhere you stay for more than 3 days, lest you forget where you are. Worst, you might not get offended anymore being called "English". Get out, I tell ya.

[J.C.MacSwell]

On 8/15/2024 at 2:08 PM, iNow said:

He saw a slight bump in polls immediately after the shooting, but negated those gains rather quickly when he decided not to moderate his tone and instead doubled down on being an asshole at the RNC convention 

LOL. Could he help himself?

On 8/15/2024 at 2:08 PM, iNow said:

He saw a slight bump in polls immediately after the shooting, but negated those gains rather quickly when he decided not to moderate his tone and instead doubled down on being an asshole at the RNC convention 

LOL. Could he help himself?

[J.C.MacSwell]

Voted Harris. She's playing the hand Biden gave her pretty well so far IMO.

[MSC]

9 hours ago, CharonY said:

Oh no, that is how it always starts. Soon enough you won't be able to distinguish "real" American cheese from an Anster and you will have to plant an American flag everywhere you stay for more than 3 days, lest you forget where you are. Worst, you might not get offended anymore being called "English". Get out, I tell ya.

Hey, at least me crying "freeedom!" will still make sense! 

[J.C.MacSwell]

Related to this, Biden himself is polling much better now than he has since becoming President.

He's becoming more of a campaign asset than one might have expected IMO, even while Harris works to distance herself on some aspects of policy toward mitigating some of the negative views of his administration. (The economic one's are a little unfortunate, given the hand he was dealt from Covid)

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/02/politics/biden-reemerges-as-top-surrogate-for-harris-campaign/index.html?

iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirchttps://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/harris-separate-biden-economy-trump/index.html

I also think Harris's "tack toward the middle" might help not just by encouraging Republican's that dislike Trump to not hold their nose and vote for him anyway, but to in fact vote for Harris.

Who knows? Maybe this campaign could help end the plague of rampant political polarization so prevalent lately...

[CharonY]

She has the advantage of being less baggaged from a lengthy campaign and primary, where folks need to take often contradictory stances. While she is doing some more middle-oriented speeches, many have been squarely aimed at progressives and workers. As long as she is not boxed in yet, she can have appeal for both wings.

[iNow]

5 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Maybe this campaign could help end the plague of rampant political polarization so prevalent lately...

I’m not gonna bet on it. 

Liz Cheney whom you cite in your sig recently stated that not only will she not vote for Trump but she will vote for Harris. 

[CharonY]

Also, the polarization is not just about the current election. It is a world-wide phenomenon and there are clearly multiple mechanisms at play here that apparently we are not consciously dealing with properly. I think we older folks are deluding ourselves in thinking that things will bounce back somehow. The new norm is already there and more likely to move faster than not.

[iNow]

33 minutes ago, CharonY said:

polarization is not just about the current election. It is a world-wide phenomenon and there are clearly multiple mechanisms at play here

See also (your thread):

 

[CharonY]

On 9/5/2024 at 10:02 AM, iNow said:

I’m not gonna bet on it. 

Liz Cheney whom you cite in your sig recently stated that not only will she not vote for Trump but she will vote for Harris. 

Her Father Dick, too.

 

[iNow]

13 minutes ago, CharonY said:

Her Father Dick, too.

Saw that. Not exactly a RINO. 

Them doing this provides a bit of a permission structure for others to do the same… folks maybe on the fence, or simply planning not to vote (as opposed to actively voting for Harris).

Lots of generals and high ranking folks in the military and intelligence community may see this as freeing their hands to do the same. 

I’ve got more than my fair share of disagreements and issues with the Cheney family, but on this topic specifically I applaud their patriotism and bravery and strength of character. 

[StringJunky]

On 8/14/2024 at 11:37 PM, iNow said:

lol. 3 months may as well be 3 decades in politics 

It ain't over 'til it's over.

[MigL]

On 9/6/2024 at 9:51 PM, CharonY said:

On 9/5/2024 at 12:02 PM, iNow said:

I’m not gonna bet on it. 
Liz Cheney whom you cite in your sig recently stated that not only will she not vote for Trump but she will vote for Harris. 

Her Father Dick, too.

It seems his former boss, G W Bush, is not endorsing D Trump either.
And in the two previous elections, did not vote for either candidate, going so far as writing in Condoleeza Rice in the last election.

George W. Bush will not make a presidential endorsement (axios.com)

Edited September 8 by MigL