Harris vs Trump;

[MSC]

Okay I'm just going to say it; that debate, was pretty fucking weird! Strangely polite and pleasant, almost seemed like JD was trying not to see Wallz as a father figure half the time and that Wallz was seeing JD as a lost kid in need of guidance.

That said, I personally believe Vance has strapped himself to the rogue comet that is the trump campaign, not because he expects Trump to win, but because he's planning his own 2028/32 run. If Trump does win, I can potentially foresee and attempt by Vance to use the 25th amendment and I honestly don't know which is worse, Trump or Vance as president. If Vance continues with Trumpism and doesn't try to bring the party more to the center, his intelligence and age could make him a very different kind of threat than Trump. I definitely would not underestimate him after this. 

One thing I think is pretty clear though, 3 of the people in this race are far more intelligent and in Vances case, shrewder, than the 4th. Trump is the odd one out. The tones of the debates couldn't be more different. 

[MigL]

I found T Walz to be somewhat nervous in his delivery and not able to express himself clearly; odd for someone who should be used to explaining clearly to a crowd, as he used to be a teacher.

J D Vance came across as a better, more forceful speaker, and better able to deliver his views/points, although some of them were obvious lies. There is no denying he's an intelligent peron, unortunately, also an opportunist who will say and do whatever it take to get elected.

Neither was disrespectful, or attacked the other, although they did attack their respective bosses.
They focused on policy, and it reminded me of debates of years gone by, before everyone in politics lost their minds.
I would say three of them, T Walz, J D Vance and K Harris conducted themselves properly in their respective debates, and displayed reason and integrity.

D Trump, on the other hand, ...

Edited October 4 by MigL

[iNow]

2 hours ago, MigL said:

Neither was disrespectful, or attacked the other

Until the very next morning, of course. Reality check from Axios:

Quote

• Vance was back in his MAGA element yesterday, mocking Walz's debate gaffe that he had "become friends with school shooters." In Michigan, Vance called that "probably only the third or fourth dumbest comment Tim Walz made that night."

It was a strategic play to appeal to moderates during the debate and throw Walz off his game (as he prepared for attack dog Vance, not midwest nice Vance). But it was another lie, in essence, like much of what he said during the debate itself (like that comment about a Fed study saying housing prices were higher due to illegal immigrants or that Trump defended Obamacare, for example). 

[MSC]

7 hours ago, iNow said:

It was a strategic play to appeal to moderates during the debate and throw Walz off his game

Like I said, shrewd, to put it mildly. Unethically sophisticated. 

That being said, I think America will sooner vote for a woman than a guy wearing eyeliner, who's side piece moonlights as an IKEA display piece. 

Honestly though, I don't think I'll ever quite understand why Vance was pegged for VP in the first place. He used to be anti-trump, pretty openly. I'd have thought Trump would have wanted someone that supported him from day one of his first campaign announcement.

[iNow]

28 minutes ago, MSC said:

I think America will sooner vote for a woman than a guy wearing eyeliner, who's side piece moonlights as an IKEA display piece. 

America voted for a woman by a margin of 3 Million votes in 2016. 

America voted against Trump by more than 7 Million votes in 2020. 

America will almost certainly vote again for a woman (K.Harris) by an equally absurd margin in these next 4 weeks. 

“America” isn’t the problem. The electoral college putting so much disproportionate power into the hands of around a dozen voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan is. 

[MSC]

10 hours ago, iNow said:

America voted for a woman by a margin of 3 Million votes in 2016. 

America voted against Trump by more than 7 Million votes in 2020. 

America will almost certainly vote again for a woman (K.Harris) by an equally absurd margin in these next 4 weeks. 

“America” isn’t the problem. The electoral college putting so much disproportionate power into the hands of around a dozen voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan is. 

True, let me rephrase, swing state voters will be ready to vote for a women before voting for a guy with eyeliner; by that I mean superficial voters who care more about perceived masculinity would rather vote for a strong woman than a feminine seeming man. This isn't to say that I myself see these traits as masculine or feminine or care about who is or isn't masculine; just an observation that a lot of voters have certain biases, conscious and subconscious, which impacts how they perceive candidates. 

For example Harris unlike Clinton is very good at immasculating Trump and making him seem even more like the whiny child he is as opposed to a grown man. Seriously only a black woman could be like "oh yeah go to his little rallies, see for yourself how quickly people get bored and leave!"

[TheVat]

It's not enough for the MAGAs that the electoral system already confers an advantage to red states.  Leonard Leo and his minions like Opus Dei have been working furiously to skew the federal judiciary to the far Right so that continuing state plots to degrade voter access and gerrymander will stand up to court challenges.  

Targeted swing states, which can be remembered with the clunky mnemonic WINVAZ PAGAMINC (and don't forget Nebraska's "blue dot" in its Omaha district is a potential tiebreaker, since NE, like Maine, splits its electoral votes), are all facing an assault on unfettered access to the polls.  

And Sofa King* has spoken the quiet part aloud, in interviews:  he admires monarchy as a system of government.  

 

* https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/story/jd-vances-mythical-couch-tryst-is-a-fact-checkers-nightmare-stephen-colbert-explains-why

[iNow]

7 hours ago, TheVat said:

working furiously to skew the federal judiciary to the far Right so that continuing state plots to degrade voter access and gerrymander will stand up to court challenges

The election is a month away and they’ve already filed hundreds of challenges to the results in those aforementioned courts 

[J.C.MacSwell]

On 10/4/2024 at 2:29 PM, iNow said:

Until the very next morning, of course. Reality check from Axios:

It was a strategic play to appeal to moderates during the debate and throw Walz off his game (as he prepared for attack dog Vance, not midwest nice Vance). But it was another lie, in essence, like much of what he said during the debate itself (like that comment about a Fed study saying housing prices were higher due to illegal immigrants or that Trump defended Obamacare, for example). 

Yep, those illegal immigrants are driving house prices up so much they can only pay the mortgage by eating your pets....

[MSC]

On 10/5/2024 at 8:45 PM, iNow said:

The election is a month away and they’ve already filed hundreds of challenges to the results in those aforementioned courts 

Starting to seem more like an election month than an election day with all the early voting taking place. Also there are numerous democratic legal challenges to many last minute rule changes made by pro-trump election commissions and officials so at least the trump sides efforts aren't going to go unfought. 

This is going to be a long October and things can only heat up. 😕

[StringJunky]

On 10/6/2024 at 1:45 AM, iNow said:

The election is a month away and they’ve already filed hundreds of challenges to the results in those aforementioned courts 

 

1 hour ago, MSC said:

Starting to seem more like an election month than an election day with all the early voting taking place. Also there are numerous democratic legal challenges to many last minute rule changes made by pro-trump election commissions and officials so at least the trump sides efforts aren't going to go unfought. 

This is going to be a long October and things can only heat up. 😕

Going to need a wheelbarrow full of popcorn this time. Do you American members think this will more messy and contested than 2020? The GOP seem to be focussed  on altering the rules of the game, rather than just playing it.

Edited October 7 by StringJunky

[TheVat]

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

 

Going to need a wheelbarrow full of popcorn this time. Do you American members think this will more messy and contested than 2020? The GOP seem to be focussed  on altering the rules of the game, rather than just playing it.

What's the Marx quote?  History repeats itself, first as tragedy, secondly as farce.  I predict the popular vote margin will be greater for Harris than it was for Hillary or Joe, that Harris will gain enough EVs in the swing states to win by a nose, and that the ensuing mess will be greater and more farcical than 2020.  Also, the Gulf states will secede from the Union and start a nuclear arms and  uranium enrichment program.  This new republic will be called Flallamisstex.

 

[StringJunky]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

What's the Marx quote?  History repeats itself, first as tragedy, secondly as farce.  I predict the popular vote margin will be greater for Harris than it was for Hillary or Joe, that Harris will gain enough EVs in the swing states to win by a nose, and that the ensuing mess will be greater and more farcical than 2020.  Also, the Gulf states will secede from the Union and start a nuclear arms and  uranium enrichment program.  This new republic will be called Flallamisstex.

 

Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas? 

[Genady]

48 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas? 

Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

[MSC]

5 hours ago, StringJunky said:

 

Going to need a wheelbarrow full of popcorn this time. Do you American members think this will more messy and contested than 2020? The GOP seem to be focussed  on altering the rules of the game, rather than just playing it.

It's already messier tbh; assassination attempts, bomb threats, the rhetoric is getting darker and the Trump side is getting more desperate and more deluded. 

I've just been operating under the assumption that America is in a cold civil war that will heat up to Irish troubles style terroristic warfare, on an American scale. 

4 hours ago, TheVat said:

What's the Marx quote?  History repeats itself, first as tragedy, secondly as farce.  I predict the popular vote margin will be greater for Harris than it was for Hillary or Joe, that Harris will gain enough EVs in the swing states to win by a nose, and that the ensuing mess will be greater and more farcical than 2020.  Also, the Gulf states will secede from the Union and start a nuclear arms and  uranium enrichment program.  This new republic will be called Flallamisstex.

 

Ironically enough most red and purple states are more likely to end up with intense infighting due to strong democrat support in densely populated areas. Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, El Paso, they are all blue dots in a "sea of red" that is a sea only in landmass, not of people, in Texas. A lot of those Democrats are 2nd amendment touting Democrats too so it's not so cut and dry that one side is better armed than the other. 

Honestly though, it's going to take a lot of monkey see monkey do for enough Trump supporters to get off their asses, drop the dunkins, hop into their mobility scooters and roll off to a civil war in some regimented way that even resembles military organization. 

[iNow]

2 hours ago, MSC said:

get off their asses, drop the dunkins, hop into their mobility scooters and roll off to a civil war in some regimented way that even resembles military organization. 

Where I am in the Midwest, militias are very real and far more organized than I’d like. They’re often excellent hunters and have huge tracts of farmland for training and staging of operations. They also have vast acres covered with thousands of barns full of hogs and pigs for feeding dead body parts to. 

[TheVat]

3 hours ago, iNow said:

 They also have vast acres covered with thousands of barns full of hogs and pigs for feeding dead body parts to. 

Glad you specified dead body parts!  

When I said "ensuing mess," jokes aside, was thinking more of protracted litigation, courts clogged with bogus suits.  But, yeah, there's no way to rule out more dystopian outcomes.  Like Taylor Swift needing heavy body armor at future arena gigs.  

[MSC]

14 hours ago, iNow said:

Where I am in the Midwest, militias are very real and far more organized than I’d like. They’re often excellent hunters and have huge tracts of farmland for training and staging of operations. They also have vast acres covered with thousands of barns full of hogs and pigs for feeding dead body parts to. 

Yeah these are the types that I see conducting the actual shooting and bomb threats, but as a percentage of MAGA they make up what like 5-10%? I think if Harris wins, pitting those militias against law enforcement and the national guard, I think they'll still get their asses handed to them in the end, but who knows how much damage they may do before that or what might happen if they go further underground. 

It's less the militia I worry about but major financers. Elon Musk could pay for a 100k strong mercenary army for well over a decade or could outfit and supply these militia groups to be far more effective and dangerous. 

One thing to keep in mind about MAGA though, is that it isn't uniform extremism, it's a mixed bag of crazy that is ripe for it's own infighting over how extreme they really are. One militia group may not have the same motivations or grievances as another. One group may claim to be all about protecting the second amendment while another has fever dreams of a handmaids tale being made reality.

Even when it comes down to in-group culture, MAGA has a problem with leadership, in that who gets to be in charge or higher up on a hierarchy, is determined by backstabbing and usurpation. Same problem the Sith have really. 

This isn't to diminish or play down the threat of this happening, just trying to point out reasons to remain hopeful that whatever happens, we'll overcome it.

11 hours ago, TheVat said:

When I said "ensuing mess," jokes aside, was thinking more of protracted litigation, courts clogged with bogus suits

Still important things to think about and the court battles are sure to be messier than they were in 2020 all on their own. Really worried the supreme Court will be looking for any excuse to intervene and give the election to Trump.

[TheVat]

The July 1 decision convinced me the current SCt is the most corrupt in the nation's history.  I think Jack Smith did a great job of getting around it and presenting a viable set of charges within the new restrictions imposed by Trump v US.

(gift link)

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/how-jack-smith-outsmarted-the-supreme-court/680149/?gift=43H6YzEv1tnFbOn4MRsWYoGNs31lm2iNN-I3QPFZ3EE&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

[StringJunky]

26 minutes ago, TheVat said:

The July 1 decision convinced me the current SCt is the most corrupt in the nation's history.  I think Jack Smith did a great job of getting around it and presenting a viable set of charges within the new restrictions imposed by Trump v US.

(gift link)

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/how-jack-smith-outsmarted-the-supreme-court/680149/?gift=43H6YzEv1tnFbOn4MRsWYoGNs31lm2iNN-I3QPFZ3EE&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

It would be highly gratifying to see the RW majority of the Court ultimately hamstrung and judicially checkmated by their own edicts. Fingers crossed.

[iNow]

4 hours ago, MSC said:

It's less the militia I worry about but major financers. Elon Musk could pay for a 100k strong mercenary army for well over a decade or could outfit and supply these militia groups to be far more effective and dangerous. 

I think he has a greater impact by spreading dangerous mind viruses through his engagement platform, elevating certain voices and suppressing others all in the name of free speech and hatred of censorship. 

[StringJunky]

4 minutes ago, iNow said:

I think he has a greater impact by spreading dangerous mind viruses through his engagement platform, elevating certain voices and suppressing others all in the name of "free speech" and "hatred of censorship". 

 

[MSC]

23 hours ago, TheVat said:

The July 1 decision convinced me the current SCt is the most corrupt in the nation's history.  I think Jack Smith did a great job of getting around it and presenting a viable set of charges within the new restrictions imposed by Trump v US.

(gift link)

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/how-jack-smith-outsmarted-the-supreme-court/680149/?gift=43H6YzEv1tnFbOn4MRsWYoGNs31lm2iNN-I3QPFZ3EE&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

I know, I loved that too. Took the presidential immunity strawman made by this Scotus and steelmanned the crap out of it. Expertly done. I'd also add that candidates have judicial recourse (where the judiciary checked the executives branches power by finding no credible evidence of fraud in the 2020 election) and therefore no incumbent president has any official duties in respect to an election campaign they are running in. 

It's like they tried to tie Smiths hands behind his back and he just immediately snapped the bindings. 

I've got the full filing downloaded and ready to read on Friday during my day off. 

[CharonY]

52 minutes ago, MSC said:

I know, I loved that too. Took the presidential immunity strawman made by this Scotus and steelmanned the crap out of it. Expertly done. I'd also add that candidates have judicial recourse (where the judiciary checked the executives branches power by finding no credible evidence of fraud in the 2020 election) and therefore no incumbent president has any official duties in respect to an election campaign they are running in. 

It's like they tried to tie Smiths hands behind his back and he just immediately snapped the bindings. 

I've got the full filing downloaded and ready to read on Friday during my day off. 

On the one hand Smith made a very strong case by laying out specifically what might be considered official duties or not and the evidence is damning (and public, which is a major point). On the other hand, I am not sure whether it is enough, considering the length SCOTUS already went to derail the case.

[MSC]

1 hour ago, CharonY said:

On the one hand Smith made a very strong case by laying out specifically what might be considered official duties or not and the evidence is damning (and public, which is a major point). On the other hand, I am not sure whether it is enough, considering the length SCOTUS already went to derail the case.

Most likely you're correct, although in order to derail it after this they'll have to come out and define "official" acts themselves in response to the inevitable Trump appeal and they'll punt that as far back as they can. Although if Trump loses and Democrats win enough congressional and Senate seats, maybe Roberts will try to desperately claw back some perceived integrity by throwing Trump under the bus. 

There is also the double edged sword that if they go to far in immunizing the presidency, a democratic president could theoretically legally intervene in any future election and deny Republicans a win for as long as it takes for a new court to re-address the issue.