Harris vs Trump;

[J.C.MacSwell]

4 hours ago, swansont said:

From a Michigan pollsterThat now has Harris leading

https://mirs-uploads.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/5931-MI STATEWIDE MITCHELL POLL -FIELD COPY - EXEC SUMMARY - CROSSTABS OF MI 106PM 11-3-24.pdf

“Before polling began, we looked at what we thought would be the likely turnout in 2024. Every poll we conducted --- including this one --- was weighted exactly the same. We weighted party affiliation, gender, age, race, area, and education. It seems clear now that we are under sampling women, African Americans, and the City of Detroit based on absentee ballot returns and early voting.”

Am I putting that together correctly...Every poll "including this one" that now has Harris leading? So probably leading by significantly more?

I get a sense the Democrat pollsters want to be, ironically, conservative while the GOP pollsters are trying to be optimistic...partly to motivate the base and partly to set the narrative to try to steal the election (something they are already accusing the Dems of)

Maybe just wishful thinking but I would like to think this time the Dems win convincingly enough that Trump, or at least his potential henchmen, realize the games over.

[Luc Turpin]

25 minutes ago, swansont said:

Why not? Any actual analysis to provide?

I mean, it wasn’t me saying this, it was the pollster, who knows the model and the data. You’re claiming they are wrong based on…vibes? Tarot cards? Tea leaves?

Tea leaves is my preferred method.

Not saying that they are wrong, but maybe stretching it a bit to consider it as a "large" shift. We will see!

And I do say that two weeks out, it looked as if it was for Trump to win. But, with the silliness at Madison Square Garden, it now appers as if it is for him to lose.  

[TheVat]

23 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Maybe just wishful thinking but I would like to think this time the Dems win convincingly enough that Trump, or at least his potential henchmen, realize the games over.

You might find this look at the Stop the Steal groups, as they've spread over the web and entrenched for the 2024 election, useful in determining what sort of Harris victory would suffice to get them to pack up and go home.  (paywall free version, courtesy of my WaPo subscription)

https://wapo.st/48z6QUZ

As long as our social media are lax about misinformation rules, there will be mass circulation of "election fraud" videos like the one detailed in this article.  Musk, in particular, seems to be fully committed to running X as a propaganda arm of the MAGAists and the Far Right generally.  

One ray of light, as @toucana mentioned, is that former Trump stalwart Nick Fuentes has turned against the grand cheetoh and denounced MAGA as a cult.  

[J.C.MacSwell]

55 minutes ago, TheVat said:

You might find this look at the Stop the Steal groups, as they've spread over the web and entrenched for the 2024 election, useful in determining what sort of Harris victory would suffice to get them to pack up and go home.  (paywall free version, courtesy of my WaPo subscription)

https://wapo.st/48z6QUZ

As long as our social media are lax about misinformation rules, there will be mass circulation of "election fraud" videos like the one detailed in this article.  Musk, in particular, seems to be fully committed to running X as a propaganda arm of the MAGAists and the Far Right generally.  

One ray of light, as @toucana mentioned, is that former Trump stalwart Nick Fuentes has turned against the grand cheetoh and denounced MAGA as a cult.  

Thanks. I tried it but they want my email...

Assuming the non battleground States go as expected that leaves the Harris with 226, 44 short of 270

And Trump 219, 51 short

So there are 3 possible results leaving a tie at 269 with Harris getting 43 and Trump 50:

Harris: Arizona (11) Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16)

leaving Trump: Michigan (15) Nevada (6) Pennsylvania (19) Wisconsin (10)

or 

Harris: Arizona (11) Georgia (16) Nevada (6) and Wisconsin (10)

leaving Trump: Michigan (15) North Carolina (16) and Pennsylvania (19)

Or

Harris: Arizona (11) North Carolina (16) Nevada (6) and Wisconsin (10)

leaving Trump: Michigan (15) Georgia (16) and Pennsylvania (19)

What happens in the case of a tie?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/electoral-college-tie-2024-election-what-happens-rcna175477

 

Edited November 4 by J.C.MacSwell

[swansont]

3 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Am I putting that together correctly...Every poll "including this one" that now has Harris leading? So probably leading by significantly more?

Yeah, I missed that, so probably yes. They say that Trump’s lead with 65+ diminished (plans on cutting social security and medicare might have something to do with it) and that abortion rights became more prominent. And with their bias uncorrected.

[TheVat]

2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Thanks. I tried it but they want my email...

That's a new trick.  Nasty business.  I will stop using the gift link button then, and just get screen shots.  

 

I think a wildcard in this election lies in evolving attitudes toward women heads of state.  There is in America a fair number of people with a bias against a female commander in chief - they'll vote for a woman for mayor or governor or congress, but still draw a line at POTUS.  There are also sexist attitudes towards women leaders in some US ethnic minorities which are otherwise strongly Democratic.  Obama pointed this out recently and got some flak for it.  

 

[exchemist]

In case you have not seen it, I thought this was rather good, for a bit of much needed light relief:

 

[StringJunky]

13 hours ago, TheVat said:

  Musk, in particular, seems to be fully committed to running X as a propaganda arm of the MAGAists and the Far Right generally.  

At least he's out in the open to be watched, now that he is openly wearing a MAGA armband.

[MSC]

21 hours ago, toucana said:

Trump appeared like a senile dustman aboard a garbage truck, and his supporters began dressing in garbage sacks -  which prompted one prominent conservative influencer and former ally Nick Fuentes to denounce MAGA as a cult.

Nick Fuentes denounced MAGA as a cult?! He's not wrong, but holocaust deniers, neo-nazis and incels are their own cult. Pot calling the kettle black. Did y'all know Nick Fuentes was my neighbor for a year from summer 2022-2023 when I lived in Berwyn Illinois and that we didn't even realize it was Nick Fuentes living there until journalists slipped details and contact info under our door? City of Berwyn has been trying to get him evicted. Ngl there were a few times where I really had to resist the urge to hop the fence and kick his ass. Only good thing I'll say about him is that he's a quiet neighbor and he'd give my stepson his ball back if it went into his yard. If anyone wants to know where to mail the poop, hit me up I have his address or you can look it up online because he has been heavily doxxed. Honestly though Nick Fuentes wouldn't care about MAGA being a cult if it fully aligned with his extremist views. 

 

13 hours ago, TheVat said:

That's a new trick.  Nasty business.  I will stop using the gift link button then, and just get screen shots.  

 

I think a wildcard in this election lies in evolving attitudes toward women heads of state.  There is in America a fair number of people with a bias against a female commander in chief - they'll vote for a woman for mayor or governor or congress, but still draw a line at POTUS.  There are also sexist attitudes towards women leaders in some US ethnic minorities which are otherwise strongly Democratic.  Obama pointed this out recently and got some flak for it.  

 

 

The saddest thing about all of this to me is that Harris could be the first American woman to become president of the United States but she won't be the first American woman to be the head of state of a country. Janet Jagan was the President of Guyana at one point in time. 

3 hours ago, StringJunky said:

At least he's out in the open to be watched, now that he is openly wearing a MAGA armband.

A close friend of mine used to be really into Elon Musk but I haven't spoken to him about Musk at all these last four years. Very curious to know what he thinks now.

[MigL]

HEY !
WHAT ARE YOU AMERICAN MEMBERS DOING AT YOUR COMPUTER SCREEN ?

GET YOUR ASS IN GEAR AND GO VOTE !

( sorry for the yelling )

Edited November 5 by MigL

[swansont]

I voted last week. Women in line outnumbered men at least 3:1

[MSC]

49 minutes ago, MigL said:

HEY !
WHAT ARE YOU AMERICAN MEMBERS DOING AT YOUR COMPUTER SCREEN ?

GET YOUR ASS IN GEAR AND GO VOTE !

( sorry for the yelling )

YELL AT THEM LOUDER! THEY CAN'T HEAR YOU FROM CANADA YET! 

I'm still lighting a small bonfire tonight and I figure if I just make a small effigy out of sticks and twigs nobody will notice, totally just a Guy Fawkes thing, ignore the orange wig it's fake news!

3 minutes ago, swansont said:

I voted last week. Women in line outnumbered men at least 3:1

No need to ask who you voted for! Trump obviously am I right? Or had hell not frozen over yet? 

I think that's a potentially good sign, but there are some pretty anti-abortion women out there too so it's not so cut and dry. 

 

[swansont]

28 minutes ago, MSC said:

No need to ask who you voted for! Trump obviously am I right? Or had hell not frozen over yet? 

I won’t say who I voted for, but I did not select any nazis. There was more than 1 on the ballot.

[TheVat]

Clearly Chase Oliver was the candidate for suspicious looking facial moles, an underserved community.  For a Libertarian, letting moles prosper and grow without interference is an important plank of the party platform.  

[Luc Turpin]

Exit poling

Maybe not a good omen for Harris.

"No incumbent or incumbent party has won with these kinds of numbers — 72% of voters say they are dissatisfied or angry about the direction of the country. And Joe Biden’s approval number is just 41%, while 67% call the economy bad or poor."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2024-election-trump-harris/index.html?t=1730849462506

[iNow]

29 minutes ago, Luc Turpin said:

Exit poling

Maybe not a good omen for Harris.

I wiped my ass after a giant dump today and the stain looked like DJTs face so there’s a counterpoint that might be a bad omen for Trump. 
 

We’ll know when we know. 

Edited November 6 by iNow

[swansont]

28 minutes ago, Luc Turpin said:

72% of voters say they are dissatisfied or angry about the direction of the country

That could be from SCOTUS destroying rights and the do-nothing Republican house. The only poll that matters today is in the voting booth

[Luc Turpin]

13 minutes ago, iNow said:

I wiped my ass after a giant dump today and the stain looked like DJTs face so there’s a counterpoint that might be a bad omen for Trump. 
 

We’ll know when we know. 

Yup!

Go Iowa go!

14 minutes ago, swansont said:

That could be from SCOTUS destroying rights and the do-nothing Republican house. The only poll that matters today is in the voting booth

And yup also!

[MSC]

25 minutes ago, iNow said:

I wiped my ass after a giant dump today and the stain looked like DJTs face so there’s a counterpoint that might be a bad omen for Trump. 
 

We’ll know when we know. 

And I am now dead, ribs cracked, lungs failed. I hope you're happy. 

On a side note; if Harris wins I entirely expect each and every one of you to go back to my OP and 1+ that mf! 1- if she loses of course. Maybe banish me for all eternity at that point for daring to hope!

[TheVat]

Unfortunately all my TP stains look like Trump, so that won't be as useful as the tea leaves.  Should I reduce my fiber intake?

5 minutes ago, MSC said:

On a side note; if Harris wins I entirely expect each and every one of you to go back to my OP and 1+ that mf! 1- if she loses of course. Maybe banish me for all eternity at that point for daring to hope!

Given the binary choice, any correct prediction is statistically not impressive.  But I'll give ya a plus one because Kamala is all about spreading the love.  Which you'll need, what with the cracked ribs and such.

Cheers, and happy Fawkes Night!

[MSC]

48 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Unfortunately all my TP stains look like Trump, so that won't be as useful as the tea leaves.  Should I reduce my fiber intake?

Given the binary choice, any correct prediction is statistically not impressive.  But I'll give ya a plus one because Kamala is all about spreading the love.  Which you'll need, what with the cracked ribs and such.

Cheers, and happy Fawkes Night!

Yeah but I'll still be able to say "told you so", that's what matters, as I lay dying thanks to INow. I just really hope she wins with enough of a lead that disputing the results will be as difficult as possible for team Trump. 

[Luc Turpin]

15 minutes ago, MSC said:

Yeah but I'll still be able to say "told you so", that's what matters, as I lay dying thanks to INow. I just really hope she wins with enough of a lead that disputing the results will be as difficult as possible for team Trump. 

It will be close.

Worried!

Georgia and North Carolina.

[LaurieAG]

Why does CNN have only 1/4 of the votes for Harris allocated when compared with most of the other cable stations? is it for a late surge or what?

[iNow]

2 hours ago, MSC said:

I just really hope she wins with enough of a lead that disputing the results will be as difficult as possible for team Trump. 

Right now it looks like she’s gonna lose IMO

1 hour ago, LaurieAG said:

Why does CNN have only 1/4 of the votes for Harris allocated when compared with most of the other cable stations? is it for a late surge or what?

I don’t understand your question 

[CharonY]

Yeah, Looks like Trump is outperforming polls to some degree. Welp, who needs democracy anyway? Lets go another round on the facism train.

 

Edit, maybe the Ukrainians could have needed that...